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DEM Primaries/Candidates thread


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QUOTE(Balta1701 @ Feb 11, 2008 -> 07:15 PM)
I'm not sure I've seen a case this term where a newspaper endorsement has made a difference, but i.e. Kennedy, we've seen some major polling moves in certain states created by local endorsements. It seems to vary with the state and with the person.

 

it's not specific endorsements that make any difference, it's just the fact that certain candidates are GETTING endorsements. For example, every day you see another story of another so and so endorsing Obama. It doesn't matter WHO it is, all it shows is that he's getting more support of people who "know what they're talking about" than Clinton is. People see that and go "oh well... i guess he IS the better choice". That's why endorsements matter.

 

The only time specific endorsements matter is when you've got your Kennedy's, your Gores and your Edwards caliber people. Otherwise they're meaningless individually.

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QUOTE(Reddy @ Feb 12, 2008 -> 11:32 AM)
it's not specific endorsements that make any difference, it's just the fact that certain candidates are GETTING endorsements. For example, every day you see another story of another so and so endorsing Obama. It doesn't matter WHO it is, all it shows is that he's getting more support of people who "know what they're talking about" than Clinton is. People see that and go "oh well... i guess he IS the better choice". That's why endorsements matter.

 

The only time specific endorsements matter is when you've got your Kennedy's, your Gores and your Edwards caliber people. Otherwise they're meaningless individually.

That's a pretty accurate assessment of endorsements.

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Ohio is GOLDEN Hillarity territory. And Texas. That's why I keep saying that she is going to still win, because if she gets over 55% of the vote in both states, she is just about there in the overall picture.

 

I will do my part in Texas to vote AGAINST her, that's for damn sure.

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QUOTE(kapkomet @ Feb 12, 2008 -> 03:28 PM)
That's why I keep saying that she is going to still win, because if she gets over 55% of the vote in both states, she is just about there in the overall picture.

If you use the results the Obama campaign have collected, Obama currently leads 1031-944 in pldged delegates. Assuming a 60-40 split in the 3 contests today... Obama potential jumps to 1132-1011.

I'll split WI 55-45 and Hawaii 60-40... 1185-1053.

Now lets move to Ohio and Texas. I'll split them 55-45 to Clinton... Obama - 1335 Clinton - 1236

Even if Hillary won the other March 4th states by 55-45, it would be... Obama - 1351 Clinton - 1256

 

Yes these are delegate counts and do not directly reflect voter percentages, but you get the idea.

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Texas is really going to be the wildcard down the stretch. If Obama can do well there, he may just have enough delegates.

 

Does he need to win it though, or will a close loss be enough (depending on Ohio's result)?

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QUOTE(Reddy @ Feb 12, 2008 -> 11:32 AM)
it's not specific endorsements that make any difference, it's just the fact that certain candidates are GETTING endorsements. For example, every day you see another story of another so and so endorsing Obama. It doesn't matter WHO it is, all it shows is that he's getting more support of people who "know what they're talking about" than Clinton is. People see that and go "oh well... i guess he IS the better choice". That's why endorsements matter.

 

The only time specific endorsements matter is when you've got your Kennedy's, your Gores and your Edwards caliber people. Otherwise they're meaningless individually.

:notworthy excellent post

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I think it's over. Obama is going to beat Hillary, and probably win the White House. I don't think he is going to run a horrible campaign like Gore or Kerry. GW Bush pretty much handed the Dems this thing with the huge deficits he ran up and the Iraq war.

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QUOTE(mr_genius @ Feb 12, 2008 -> 08:51 PM)
I think it's over. Obama is going to beat Hillary, and probably win the White House. I don't think he is going to run a horrible campaign like Gore or Kerry. GW Bush pretty much handed the Dems this thing with the huge deficits he ran up and the Iraq war.

I have no doubt anymore that you are correct. It took me a while to get this feeling but I am certain he will be our next president. This is a true movement now. You cannot deny it.

 

:usa

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