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DEM Primaries/Candidates thread


NorthSideSox72

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They had an interesting demonstration on CNN last night. Basically they took an interactive map that figured out delegates awarded based on each states rules for award delegates. They used the map and played out a bunch of different scenarios, and basically it is almost impossible for either candidate to win the nomination outright before the convention without either a huge swing in superdelegates, or Edwards pledging his delegates to someone who wins almost all of the remaining at about a 60-40 ratio.

 

In other words, this is going to drag out with no winner in sight.

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QUOTE(southsider2k5 @ Feb 14, 2008 -> 07:36 AM)
They had an interesting demonstration on CNN last night. Basically they took an interactive map that figured out delegates awarded based on each states rules for award delegates. They used the map and played out a bunch of different scenarios, and basically it is almost impossible for either candidate to win the nomination outright before the convention without either a huge swing in superdelegates, or Edwards pledging his delegates to someone who wins almost all of the remaining at about a 60-40 ratio.

 

In other words, this is going to drag out with no winner in sight.

 

party unity? overrated i say.

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QUOTE(BigSqwert @ Feb 14, 2008 -> 10:07 AM)
Former Republican Senator Lincoln Chafee from Rhode Island. Will only have some impact in the upcoming Rhode Island primary. I wouldn't categorize this as major.

 

it said "major national" endorsement. i dont think that's it. but maybe.

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QUOTE(kapkomet @ Feb 14, 2008 -> 10:26 AM)
Because it's a "Republican" (which is bulls*** anyway...) from a Northeast state... "MAJOR"!!!!!

 

Um, ok.

 

Edwards is going to hook up with Clinton, but you've already said that. As close as the race is, he gets to be kingmaker anyway.

 

thats really what's so funny about this race. Edwards STILL gets to pretty much call it. All that's left to decide is whether he wants to do that or not.

 

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QUOTE(Reddy @ Feb 14, 2008 -> 10:41 AM)
thats really what's so funny about this race. Edwards STILL gets to pretty much call it. All that's left to decide is whether he wants to do that or not.

He'll HAVE to do it. Otherwise, we go to a brokered convention, which is becoming a bigger possibility every day. And if that happens, we'll all annoit Queen Hillarity. There's no way a Clinton will lose a brokered convention.

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QUOTE(kapkomet @ Feb 14, 2008 -> 08:59 AM)
He'll HAVE to do it. Otherwise, we go to a brokered convention, which is becoming a bigger possibility every day. And if that happens, we'll all annoit Queen Hillarity. There's no way a Clinton will lose a brokered convention.

One interesting development lately is that there's starting to be a lot of pressure on the superdelegates to actually follow the will of the voters. Phone calls, etc. Something like what, 1/3 or 2/5 of them have already endorsed, but a majority are staying on the sidelines, seemingly for that reason.

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QUOTE(kapkomet @ Feb 14, 2008 -> 11:22 AM)
That might give Obama a shot... but when the dust settles, the superdelegates will flock back to establishment and Hillary, is my guess. But we'll see.

Obama is winning the popular vote, won more states, has more pledged delegates, does better in matchups vs McCain, raises more money, is getting young people to finally vote, is getting Republicans to cross over, is doing better with independents, and has a positive message.

 

So why exactly will Clinton get the bulk of the remaining superdelegates to back her?

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QUOTE(BigSqwert @ Feb 14, 2008 -> 09:48 AM)
So why exactly will Clinton get the bulk of the remaining superdelegates to back her?

The simple answer is...a lot of them served in various locations, i.e. Congress, during the Clinton years. Which means they all probably owe the Clintons a lot of favors.

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QUOTE(kapkomet @ Feb 14, 2008 -> 10:59 AM)
He'll HAVE to do it. Otherwise, we go to a brokered convention, which is becoming a bigger possibility every day. And if that happens, we'll all annoit Queen Hillarity. There's no way a Clinton will lose a brokered convention.

 

I think you are correct in that assumption, at best I'd give the Clinton machine a 80% chance. But Obama has been beating them odds all the way along. Maybe we're seeing something magical? Maybe a Dem version of Reagan?

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From MSNBC's First Read:

 

The NBC News Political Unit superdelegate count now stands at Clinton 260, Obama 181. This brings Obama's post-Feb. 5 superdelegate endorsements to 11-2 over Clinton. (And Clinton's lost two, including Samuels and Tom Lantos, who passed away.)

 

I see a trend emerging.

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QUOTE(sox4lifeinPA @ Feb 14, 2008 -> 09:55 AM)
If she wins, I'm cancelling my membership to NPR....it'll be 4 years of that raspy lesbo voice. Blech. No thanks.

Maybe some day, people out there will realize that the best way to keep Hillary Clinton in office and to help her advance is to keep making remarks exactly like this one.

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QUOTE(Balta1701 @ Feb 14, 2008 -> 12:56 PM)
Maybe some day, people out there will realize that the best way to keep Hillary Clinton in office and to help her advance is to keep making remarks exactly like this one.

 

because I'm some how motivating an army of raspy voiced lesbiens to vote for Hillary who wouldn't have otherwise voted? :headbang

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QUOTE(sox4lifeinPA @ Feb 14, 2008 -> 10:02 AM)
because I'm some how motivating an army of raspy voiced lesbiens to vote for Hillary who wouldn't have otherwise voted? :headbang

Because you're embarrassing anyone else who votes for someone other than Hillary enough to make them want to vote for Hillary to spite you and all the other people who think like that. It's the same effect you get if someone comes out and says we shouldn't vote for that uppity n*gro. I have no urge to be affiliated with people like that, and I will happily use my vote to shut them up.

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