DEM Primaries/Candidates thread

[southsider2k5]

Please... Anyone who doesn't see that Hillary is front runner and is setting them up for such landslides never seen before in American history the rest of the way is kidding themselves. She will also get 90 % of the super delegate vote. There is no doubt about any of this. Obama has no chance in hell!

 

And by the way I am an Obama supporter. I just prefer to be realistic about it.

 

You keep using that word, I do not think it means, what you think it means.

[NorthSideSox72]

You keep using that word, I do not think it means, what you think it means.

Anybody want a peanut?

 

[kapkomet]

Please... Anyone who doesn't see that Hillary is front runner and is setting them up for such landslides never seen before in American history the rest of the way is kidding themselves. She will also get 90 % of the super delegate vote. There is no doubt about any of this. Obama has no chance in hell!

 

And by the way I am an Obama supporter. I just prefer to be realistic about it.

If Texas and Ohio vote for Obama, the supers can vote however they want and it won't matter.

[NorthSideSox72]

If Texas and Ohio vote for Obama, the supers can vote however they want and it won't matter.

Yup.

 

Besides, as I've been saying for a few months, the supers want to WIN IN NOVEMBER. And since the polls pretty clearly show that Obama is much more well-equiped to beat McCain, you can bet that the uncommitted supers will more often than not want to back a winner. This idea that Clinton will control all the supers may have looked correct back in the fall, but not in the current landscape.

 

By the way, I have to say, it was really strange leaving the country on Feb 8 and coming back Feb 24, and getting back to the news of this race. Quite the dramatic shift.

 

[kapkomet]

Yup.

 

Besides, as I've been saying for a few months, the supers want to WIN IN NOVEMBER. And since the polls pretty clearly show that Obama is much more well-equiped to beat McCain, you can bet that the uncommitted supers will more often than not want to back a winner. This idea that Clinton will control all the supers may have looked correct back in the fall, but not in the current landscape.

 

By the way, I have to say, it was really strange leaving the country on Feb 8 and coming back Feb 24, and getting back to the news of this race. Quite the dramatic shift.

Hillary's still going to win, you dork.

 

I personally do not count her out, not just yet.

 

 

[mr_genius]

Hillary's still going to win, you dork.

 

I personally do not count her out, not just yet.

 

If she wins Ohio by like 7 points, and barely wins Texas she can stay in and claim momentum. Get some positive news coverage.

[NorthSideSox72]

Hillary's still going to win, you dork.

 

I personally do not count her out, not just yet.

I'm not counting her out right now. But if Obama wins Texas and Ohio, I think its over. If each take one state, Clinton can limp along, but she may elect not to. The only way Clinton has more than a sliver of hope is if she can win both.

 

[NorthSideSox72]

A possible Richardson endorsement by Friday?

I'd be surprised if he didn't endorse Clinton. He's just got too much history with them. I hope I'm wrong of course.

 

[kapkomet]

I'm not counting her out right now. But if Obama wins Texas and Ohio, I think its over. If each take one state, Clinton can limp along, but she may elect not to. The only way Clinton has more than a sliver of hope is if she can win both.

She will NOT back out of the race unless she gets clocked on March 4. Even if she hangs but loses both, she will still say that she has a shot, but even I realize if she loses both Texas and Ohio, it's going to be damn near impossible unless something else really bizarre happens ... ... ...

[Reddy]

You keep using that word, I do not think it means, what you think it means.

 

INCONCEIVABLE!

 

[Rex Kickass]

I'm not counting her out right now. But if Obama wins Texas and Ohio, I think its over. If each take one state, Clinton can limp along, but she may elect not to. The only way Clinton has more than a sliver of hope is if she can win both.

 

She can't just win both and do what she needs to do in a delegate situation. She has to win both convincingly, 10 point margins.

 

Unfortunately, Clinton's campaign is all machine, Obama's ground game is amazing. I think he wins Texas by 10 points or so, Ohio goes either way, Vermont goes Obama by 35 points and Rhode Island goes Clinton by 20.

[Balta1701]

She can't just win both and do what she needs to do in a delegate situation. She has to win both convincingly, 10 point margins.

 

Unfortunately, Clinton's campaign is all machine, Obama's ground game is amazing. I think he wins Texas by 10 points or so, Ohio goes either way, Vermont goes Obama by 35 points and Rhode Island goes Clinton by 20.

For the delegate situation, she's actually still in trouble even if she starts reeling off 10 point wins, because for the past 2 weeks Obama's been winning by 20 or so. His Wisconsin win was by what, 18, and that was the smallest margin since Super Tuesday?

 

She's actually been pushed back in to a corner where she needs to start winning everything by 15 and then have the remaining superdelegates sense a lot of momentum from her side and fully push over to her, in no small part because of her campaign's failure to try to wring every vote/delegate they could out of those states.

[Balta1701]

I'd be surprised if he didn't endorse Clinton. He's just got too much history with them. I hope I'm wrong of course.

The question is...how much of a gambler is Richardson? It's entirely possible that he could endorse Clinton and she could still lose badly at this point, and therefore he'd have made himself an enemy in the Dem Nominee by trying to go for his throat just as he was about to secure the thing.

 

If Richardson, or hell, anyone, was going to gamble on endorsing Clinton, they would have done so some time ago before things got so bleak and when they wouldn't have to risk alienating the President. No one is going to endorse Hillary until after Ohio and Texas, and that's only if she can pull off the upsets again.

[NorthSideSox72]

The question is...how much of a gambler is Richardson? It's entirely possible that he could endorse Clinton and she could still lose badly at this point, and therefore he'd have made himself an enemy in the Dem Nominee by trying to go for his throat just as he was about to secure the thing.

 

If Richardson, or hell, anyone, was going to gamble on endorsing Clinton, they would have done so some time ago before things got so bleak and when they wouldn't have to risk alienating the President. No one is going to endorse Hillary until after Ohio and Texas, and that's only if she can pull off the upsets again.

That all certainly makes sense. But that also conflicts with the loyalty issue. Ultimately, Richardson is a very, very ambitious guy. I thought, back when it was a tighter race, he'd make a play to for a high level office (SecState, SecEng, maybe even VP) to both of them, and go with the best offer. But if neither had much to offer, he'd stay out - which he did. Now... I'm just not sure. You might be right. But I think its more likely he just doesn't endorse at all - I'll revise my view to that.

 

[NorthSideSox72]

That all certainly makes sense. But that also conflicts with the loyalty issue. Ultimately, Richardson is a very, very ambitious guy. I thought, back when it was a tighter race, he'd make a play to for a high level office (SecState, SecEng, maybe even VP) to both of them, and go with the best offer. But if neither had much to offer, he'd stay out - which he did. Now... I'm just not sure. You might be right. But I think its more likely he just doesn't endorse at all - I'll revise my view to that.

 

ETA: Keep in mind too, he's a lock for as many terms as Governor as he wants for all practical purposes. Its not like he's hurting for a job. I'm not sure he'd see that Senate seat as a HUGE step up from the Governor's chair. He's still pretty young.

 

[Balta1701]

That all certainly makes sense. But that also conflicts with the loyalty issue. Ultimately, Richardson is a very, very ambitious guy. I thought, back when it was a tighter race, he'd make a play to for a high level office (SecState, SecEng, maybe even VP) to both of them, and go with the best offer. But if neither had much to offer, he'd stay out - which he did. Now... I'm just not sure. You might be right. But I think its more likely he just doesn't endorse at all - I'll revise my view to that.

I think i agree pretty strongly with you that he will stay out of the endorsement game, but if he gets in, I don't think there's a chance he'd endorse anyone but BO right now, because of the potentially large downside.

 

I think Chris Dodd's a pretty good example. A few weeks ago, the race was so much in flux that if he got in early, and the candidate he endorsed were to lose, he'd potentially have made a powerful enemy. But now he can still get in with Obama while his endorsement still looks useful to the candidate, and now he can give the President a call and say "Can I count on your support for the majority leader position?" when that race comes up in the future. That's why Obama's the hot endorsement lately...because now you can still get in before he has everything wrapped up and therefore still have him owe you a favor.

[NorthSideSox72]

I think i agree pretty strongly with you that he will stay out of the endorsement game, but if he gets in, I don't think there's a chance he'd endorse anyone but BO right now, because of the potentially large downside.

 

I think Chris Dodd's a pretty good example. A few weeks ago, the race was so much in flux that if he got in early, and the candidate he endorsed were to lose, he'd potentially have made a powerful enemy. But now he can still get in with Obama while his endorsement still looks useful to the candidate, and now he can give the President a call and say "Can I count on your support for the majority leader position?" when that race comes up in the future. That's why Obama's the hot endorsement lately...because now you can still get in before he has everything wrapped up and therefore still have him owe you a favor.

And if you look carefully at what he said and the situation he said it in, it doesn't seem like he was hinting all that strongly. It may be nothing.

 

One other note. I think Richardson should have had that beard when he was still in the race. It makes him look a bit more dignified, and less overweight. I think that his physical image was one of this downfalls, even though it should be irrelevant.

 

[HuskyCaucasian]

*Grabs the fire extinguisher*

Let the fun begin!!

[kapkomet]

This will be the most cut-throat debate from the Clinton side you will ever see. She's going to swing, and swing hard. Can Obama counterpunch? I bet he stays defensive. I can't see this one, I wish I could. Keep me up to date, ya'll. I'm stuck at work.

[HuskyCaucasian]

Hillary is already trying to kill with kindness.

[NorthSideSox72]

Dammit. This hotel TV doesn't have MSNBC. And I'm on the MSNBC site watching the supposed "live" video, but its just sitting there saying "loading video".

 

[Balta1701]

This will be the most cut-throat debate from the Clinton side you will ever see. She's going to swing, and swing hard. Can Obama counterpunch? I bet he stays defensive. I can't see this one, I wish I could. Keep me up to date, ya'll. I'm stuck at work.

So far, every time she's gone hard, it's hurt her more than him. I really hope he doesn't try any counterpunches and stays positive. It'll make for an intriguing contrast.

[HuskyCaucasian]

Dammit. This hotel TV doesn't have MSNBC. And I'm on the MSNBC site watching the supposed "live" video, but its just sitting there saying "loading video".

yea, hotel wireless probably wont be fast enough to stream live video.

[NorthSideSox72]

yea, hotel wireless probably wont be fast enough to stream live video.

Its actually wired in this case, and its not even doing the hitching thing - just saying "loading video, please wait".

 

Crap. How does this TV not have MSNBC?

 

[HuskyCaucasian]

Hillary is attacking Obama of mandating children while not mandating adults.