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DEM Primaries/Candidates thread


NorthSideSox72

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QUOTE(AngelasDaddy0427 @ Mar 3, 2008 -> 03:12 PM)
All I know is that Obama might of had a slight chance before he had his campaign contact Canada. Now that it's a proven fact he'll be lucky if he only loses both by 20 points.

I do not think this word means what you think it means.

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QUOTE(AngelasDaddy0427 @ Mar 3, 2008 -> 03:12 PM)
All I know is that Obama might of had a slight chance before he had his campaign contact Canada. Now that it's a proven fact he'll be lucky if he only loses both by 20 points.

 

When it comes to international relations I'd dare to say that little is proven fact. I'd also say that debate about international agreements in a purely political setting would be 90% bulls*** anyways. All the same, this isn't good for Obama, but I'll hope it won't affect the results tommorow. The opposition in Canada is still attacking the Conservative Government for leaking details about these discussions, and I don't think that will stop soon. Canadians overwhelmingly favor the Democrats and to be seen as harming one of their chances surreptitiously is not a popular move.

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Prediction: Obama's turnout overwhelms pollsters in TX. Obama wins, and its not as close as the polls indicate. Clinton keeps it close in OH, winner in that state will take it with a two to four point margin - giving Clinton a net gain of under 10 delegates. Clinton wins RI by about 10 points, Obama takes VT by 20+.

 

Clinton won't gain more than 10 delegates on Obama tomorrow.

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QUOTE(Rex Kicka** @ Mar 3, 2008 -> 05:50 PM)
Prediction: Obama's turnout overwhelms pollsters in TX. Obama wins, and its not as close as the polls indicate. Clinton keeps it close in OH, winner in that state will take it with a two to four point margin - giving Clinton a net gain of under 10 delegates. Clinton wins RI by about 10 points, Obama takes VT by 20+.

 

Clinton won't gain more than 10 delegates on Obama tomorrow.

Actually, if the results are as you state, it seems like Clinton won't gain at all - she'd lose ground.

 

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I Clinton smears her way back into the race, America will get what it deserves. McCain will be the next President. Independents like myself will either not vote or be once again forced to choose between which candidate is less bad. The politics I've witnessed from the Clinton's are almost disgusting enough to make me go back to watching all sports. Sen. Obama is a brilliant leader with something rarely found in politicians, common sense. I'm hoping my fellow Americans in OH, TX, RI, and VT will see through the smears. I became interested in this election as a supporter of Sen. Obama, but I would probably have gone for whichever Dem won. Now, I will campaign for McCain before I would say one positive thing about Clinton. Let me be perfectly clear. This has absolutely nothing to do with the fact that she is a woman. Margaret Thatcher proved that gender does not determine leadership. Hillary has disgusted me with her tactics. First she cries for sympathy votes, then lets Bill bring up race, then she calculatingly smiles and shakes Sen. Obama's hand on TV so she can look like the poor victim and scream shame one you the very next day in response to the truth. If her campaign was not behind the e-mail smear campaign, then it perpetuated fear with the photo that would make staunchest right winger proud. She whines about the media being against her while the media has been the opposite. CNN is owned by Time Warner who is Hillary's number 5 contributer. This is like the Tribune telling Chicago why we are supposed to love the flubs. She refuses to release her tax returns. What kind of kick backs has Bill been getting for his policy decisions? I think what really disappoints me is that there are Americans stupid enough to keep falling for this crap. Maybe that is why education does not seem to ever get fixed. This poor Ohio man crying on 60 minutes was saying that he thinks Obama seems like the best candidate but he doesn't like some of the rumors he's been hearing. It's sad. Sen Obama will eventually prevail, but I will not soon forget Hillary's contribution to the Republicans and her allegiance to the money machine lobbyists in Washington. I have seen some things following Sen Obama's grass roots campaign that make me proud to be an American. The opposition's sheep would tell me I'm not because I do not wear a lapel pin.

Edited by 103 mph screwball
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Obama might have an advantage in Ohio:

Yesterday, NBC/NJ’s Mike Memoli reported that there are signs Obama might have the early-voting edge in Ohio. Indeed, these contests could very well be the first ones in which early/absentee voting actually benefits Obama, because that voting will have started after Obama went on his post-Feb. 5 run. Factor in some bad weather -- lots of rain -- expected in Ohio, and does that cut into Clinton’s lead there?

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/200.../04/727465.aspx

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From DKos:

 

Tom Brokaw just announced in front of a stunned Terry McAuliffe that Obama has 50 superdelegates waiting to endorse Obama.

 

Watch the video here

 

NBC News superreporter cites a source "very close to the Obama campaign" who says the additional superdelegates are "ready to go public before too long."

 

If Clinton wins all 4 states today she only gains 20 or so delegates. Obama's already got a 100+ delegate lead. Add 50 supers to that and it nullifies her win and puts him further ahead and pretty much out of reach even if she wins out the rest of the primaries (which she has no chance of doing).

 

If some of those supers were already committed to Clinton and switch (which 6 have already) it's even worse for her.

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Interesting article showing that even if Clinton wins ALL 16 remaining states, she probably goes to Denver behind Obama in pledged delegates. Add that to the big 50 for Obama mentioned earlier, plus the fact that Obama is so much better off in national polls against McCain... Clinton looks to be in desperate straights.

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QUOTE(NorthSideSox72 @ Mar 4, 2008 -> 01:48 PM)
Interesting article showing that even if Clinton wins ALL 16 remaining states, she probably goes to Denver behind Obama in pledged delegates. Add that to the big 50 for Obama mentioned earlier, plus the fact that Obama is so much better off in national polls against McCain... Clinton looks to be in desperate straights.

And I expect the Obama campaign to announce a huge number for their February totals some time later this week.

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QUOTE(NorthSideSox72 @ Mar 4, 2008 -> 01:48 PM)
Interesting article showing that even if Clinton wins ALL 16 remaining states, she probably goes to Denver behind Obama in pledged delegates. Add that to the big 50 for Obama mentioned earlier, plus the fact that Obama is so much better off in national polls against McCain... Clinton looks to be in desperate straights.

Interesting mention of the article you cited.

Late Update: A surprising large number of readers have written in to note that Hillary Clinton cannot "get back the lead" among pledged delegates because she has never been in the lead. To the best of my knowledge this is true. Obama has been in and maintained his lead throughout. I'm not sure this makes a great deal of difference to the larger story. But accuracy counts. So I stand corrected.
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QUOTE(NorthSideSox72 @ Mar 4, 2008 -> 01:48 PM)
Interesting article showing that even if Clinton wins ALL 16 remaining states, she probably goes to Denver behind Obama in pledged delegates. Add that to the big 50 for Obama mentioned earlier, plus the fact that Obama is so much better off in national polls against McCain... Clinton looks to be in desperate straights.

 

what in sams heck are you talking about, angelasdaddy said Obama is giving up after Texas, that is a fact

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QUOTE(kyyle23 @ Mar 4, 2008 -> 02:58 PM)
what in sams heck are you talking about, angelasdaddy said Obama is giving up after Texas, that is a fact

He probably won't even wait for all of today's results to come in. I'd bet he'll have a press conference in the next hour or so to announce that he's dropping out. I mean why bother when the writing is on the wall?

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