DEM Primaries/Candidates thread

[kapkomet]

I don't think Richardson is in a good position financially either. Not when Clinton and Obama have each 4x his resources.

Ah, gotcha.

 

[NorthSideSox72]

ok, so Bill Richardson is in an "ok" position, but Johnny Girly Man is not? I'm confused.

Not in the grand scheme. I think its an OUCH for two reasons. One Edwards was once thought of as at the same level as Clinton and Obama - not the same level as Richardson. And two, Edwards' number went down a bunch. So I guess its a relative thing. Also, its better to be the guy whose numbers are going up (Richardson, who has gone from low single digits to double digits in IA and NH) than going down or staying stagnant.

 

[Balta1701]

Ah, gotcha.

Although, Richardson is doing one thing interestingly different from Edwards. As far as I know, so far, he hasn't accepted public campaign money yet. This is a fairly important thing, because, thanks to the spending limits that public funding involves, if you take public funding, basically, your campaign will have to go dark on the airwaves from the time you win the primaries until after your convention. You literally won't be able to run ads before then. Just on that alone, it seems like electing Edwards is bad strategery, because it gives the Republicans another chance to own the race before the Dem convention, just as happened in 04.

 

Edwards seemingly just feels that after the fundraising numbers this quarter, his campaign didn't have a choice; if they wanted to even stay in the race, they needed the $10 mil or so in matching funds they'd get before the votes started coming in, and they'd just have to live with the limits. Richardson is hoping for a miracle somewhere, but is at least smart enough to not give up the general election to win the primary.

[BigSqwert]

Obama on the Tyra Banks show today. I think it's on right now in Chicago.

[kapkomet]

Obama on the Tyra Banks show today. I think it's on right now in Chicago.

Scandalous.

 

Obama is becoming a rock star, no doubt about it.

 

It will be interesting if indeed the Goracle jumps in - it might pull enough away from Mrs. Bill Clinton that Obama could get a legit shot.

 

The Re-pube-licans just suck.

 

[Balta1701]

It will be interesting if indeed the Goracle jumps in - it might pull enough away from Mrs. Bill Clinton that Obama could get a legit shot.

Even if he doesn't, I wouldn't count out Obama yet, or honestly, even Edwards, even though he's been trending down lately. An awful lot can change based on a very wierd process in Iowa that is very hard to poll. You never know when something crazy might happen, like all of Edwards, Richardson, and Obama's supporters realizing that the one thing they don't want is for Clinton to be the nominee and teaming up in the 2nd votes in caucuses to turn that state to another candidate.

[Rex Kickass]

ok, so Bill Richardson is in an "ok" position, but Johnny Girly Man is not? I'm confused.

 

Bill Richardson isn't a top tier candidate. He is the second tier, although that's quickly becoming a two person field with Edwards trending down quickly. Richardson hasn't spent a lot of money which makes him able to manage on a smaller budget. It all comes down to Iowa, and how good his ground game is there.

[kapkomet]

Bill Richardson isn't a top tier candidate. He is the second tier, although that's quickly becoming a two person field with Edwards trending down quickly. Richardson hasn't spent a lot of money which makes him able to manage on a smaller budget. It all comes down to Iowa, and how good his ground game is there.

I kind of got that after what NSS was saying. Honestly, I think the next 45 days will tell us a lot.

 

[southsider2k5]

OUCH.

 

You knew it was going to be ugly when he went back on his prior commitment of not accepting public funds, before the 3Q fundraising was even over. Like I said before Edwards is circling the drain. He HAS to win one of Iowa and New Hampshire, and have a strong finish in the other state... If not he needs to hang it up.

 

Personally I can't wait until after the first couple of primaries so we can narrow down the fields for both parties.

[BigSqwert]

Clinton hits the jackpot with $27M this past quarter.

 

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2007/...-third-quarter/

[NorthSideSox72]

Clinton hits the jackpot with $27M this past quarter.

 

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2007/...-third-quarter/

Important note on that - $5M of that money cannot be spent on the primary process. The gap between Obama and Clinton, in terms of money that can actually be used in this process, is only $2-3M.

 

[Texsox]

Important note on that - $5M of that money cannot be spent on the primary process. The gap between Obama and Clinton, in terms of money that can actually be used in this process, is only $2-3M.

 

All that for a job that pays about $150,000? There must be some cool perks

[southsider2k5]

Clinton hits the jackpot with $27M this past quarter.

 

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2007/...-third-quarter/

 

So to no one's surprise, the Clinton camp is better liars... remember this from last week?

 

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/Vote2008/st...4382&page=1

 

An aide to Clinton's campaign tells ABC News that they expect to have raised between $17 and $20 million in the third quarter fundraising period between July 1 and Sept. 30, and suggested the campaign of Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., will raise over $30 million, thanks in large part to online donations.

 

a high-ranking Obama aide tells ABC News that they're likely to land in the $17-$19 million range -- and that they expect Clinton to hit $35 million for the quarter.

 

For reference sake, Obama raised $20 million.

[Texsox]

Seems like good strategy to underestimate what resources you will have and overestimate what your opponent will have. Keeps you fighting and you won't lose momentum if that's what happens, and if it doesn't, well you get a shot of adrenalin that you exceeded expectations. Most golf books tell you to always expect your opponent to hit the perfect shot, when playing chess always assume your opponent will not blunder. I don't see that as lying.

[southsider2k5]

Some interesting things in here on how those numbers you hear are spun. For instance I didn't know that every person who even buys a bumper sticker from a campaign is considered a "donor".

 

http://blog.newsweek.com/blogs/thegaggle/a...r-bankbook.aspx

 

My Bankbook is Way Bigger Than Your Bankbook

Tuesday, October 02, 2007 1:31 PM By Holly Bailey Campaigns can be so tricky sometimes. Barack Obama had hoped to dominate the news cycle today with a big foreign policy speech and a trip to Iowa, but all it took was a little link forwarded to reporters by the Clinton campaign to upstage things. If you haven’t heard, Clinton, according to a very short post on her campaign website, raised $27 million over the last three months--making it the first quarter she’s out-raised Obama. No question it’s a significant accomplishment. July to September is a traditionally slow fund-raising period for candidates, which makes her numbers all the better. And yeah, Clinton has finally raised more money than the guy who’s had all the buzz. (Anyone remember that Oprah fundraiser a few weeks back?)

 

But as with most fund-raising numbers, there is the fine print. For one thing, the only cash that really counts right now is contributions dedicated for the primary. And in that department, Clinton raised $22 million vs. Obama’s $19 million over the last three months. Sad to say, but in a campaign year like this, when every financial record has been thrown out the window, a $3 million difference in a single quarter isn’t all that. The big picture, based on the summary numbers (since we have to wait until they file the nitty-gritty to the FEC later this month): it looks as though Obama still leads when it comes to fund-raising strictly for the primary. According to his campaign, the Illinois senator has raised roughly $75 million to spend on the primary campaign. Clinton, meanwhile, has raised about $62 million for the primary alone. Of course, that’s not the only thing the two Democratic frontrunners are quibbling about. Last week, the Obama campaign talked up the fact that it had at least 93,000 new contributors during the third quarter. Today, the Clinton camp boasted of 100,000 new donors. Wow and wow-except that the Obama campaign admitted earlier this summer that its “donors” include people who buy campaign t-shirts and bumper stickers, a tally not often included by other campaigns, since many farm out their merchandising to outside groups.

 

As crucial as these numbers are, we're still waiting for the most important figures when it comes to Clinton v. Obama. The big question facing the Dems: How much did each campaign spend over the summer? Did Clinton continue to play it frugal? And how much money does each side have in the bank to spend on the primaries? We’ll have to wait for more fine print.

[BigSqwert]

Some interesting things in here on how those numbers you hear are spun. For instance I didn't know that every person who even buys a bumper sticker from a campaign is considered a "donor".

 

http://blog.newsweek.com/blogs/thegaggle/a...r-bankbook.aspx

Obama is smart. Not sure why the other candidates didn't use this tactic. They use third parties for their products.

 

From his website:

 

Thank you for visiting the Obama for America online store. All of our products are top quality, union and USA made and produced. All purchases made on the Obama Store are 100% contributions to the campaign and count toward your overall contribution limit.

Edited October 3, 2007 by BigSqwert

[NorthSideSox72]

Handy website for tracking poll results for Dems in the primaries, including both national and state polls.

 

[southsider2k5]

Obama is smart. Not sure why the other candidates didn't use this tactic. They use third parties for their products.

 

From his website:

 

I'm not even saying it is a bad idea, but it just gives the numbers some perspective. It is equating the guy who gives $2300 to the guy who spends $5 on a bumpersticker.

[BigSqwert]

I'm not even saying it is a bad idea, but it just gives the numbers some perspective. It is equating the guy who gives $2300 to the guy who spends $5 on a bumpersticker.

If someone were to buy an Obama t-shirt from his website for $20 it's probably because they support him and will likely vote for him. Why candidates haven't done this sort of thing in the past is beyond me.

[EvilMonkey]

If someone were to buy an Obama t-shirt from his website for $20 it's probably because they support him and will likely vote for him. Why candidates haven't done this sort of thing in the past is beyond me.

They could be buying it simply for the novelty of it. Some people also collect political stuff like buttons, bumper stickers, etc. However, a majority would probably also be inclined to vote for him.

[Rex Kickass]

I'm not even saying it is a bad idea, but it just gives the numbers some perspective. It is equating the guy who gives $2300 to the guy who spends $5 on a bumpersticker.

 

You're right. In my opinion, the person who donates $5 is really more important.

[EvilMonkey]

It seems that Obama won't wear a Flag pin, because he "doesn't like how the pin has come to represent patriotism in America". Seriously, WTF is up with that? Oh wait, we shouldn't question his patriotism. Well, how about his common sense?

http://www.kcrg.com/news/local/10232921.html

[Texsox]

It seems that Obama won't wear a Flag pin, because he "doesn't like how the pin has come to represent patriotism in America". Seriously, WTF is up with that? Oh wait, we shouldn't question his patriotism. Well, how about his common sense?

http://www.kcrg.com/news/local/10232921.html

 

Everybody is wearing the pin, how come you aren't wearing the pin?

 

Stupid Obama, put on the damn pin and party. Support the choldren in China that make them with lead paint

[EvilMonkey]

Tex, think about his line there. He won't wear it beacuse it has come to stand for patriotism. WHY IS THAT BAD? Does he hate his country? Is he not a patriot? Is he ashamed of the flag, or looking to score points with the commie-fringe of the Dem party?

[Texsox]

Tex, think about his line there. He won't wear it beacuse it has come to stand for patriotism. WHY IS THAT BAD? Does he hate his country? Is he not a patriot? Is he ashamed of the flag, or looking to score points with the commie-fringe of the Dem party?

 

I think it is more a comment against those that wrap themselves up in the right clothes, ribbons, and pins, but it is all window dressing. Something that we've complained about here. Giving speeches and not money. Being pro War and making certain you or a loved one didn't have to serve, etc. That's the "kind of" patriotism I believe he was talking about. My guy was a POW, he is waaaay more Patriotic than anyone in the field, so vote for McCain.