DEM Primaries/Candidates thread

[BigSqwert]

Not sure where to put this, but... Kucinich jumps the shark, and questions Bush's mental health.

What do you mean by "Jumps the shark"? I have not seen it used in this context before.

[Texsox]

What do you mean by "Jumps the shark"? I have not seen it used in this context before.

 

Ratings are slipping, you need a big show to get back on track. This will be marked where his campaign stopped being relevant. Thanks for playing the game, it was fun. Enjoy a vacation with your hot wife.

[sox4lifeinPA]

Ratings are slipping, you need a big show to get back on track. This will be marked where his campaign continued being irrelevant. Thanks for playing the game, it was fun. Enjoy a vacation with your hot wife.

 

 

fixed that for you.

[NorthSideSox72]

So now, Obama seems to have pulled statistically even with Clinton in Iowa, and Edwards is falling back.

 

Funny how this happens - just as it seems he was falling too far back to make it, things shift again.

 

Since Richardson seems to have stagnated in the high single digits, I am really hoping for Obama. And I think there is a good chance that if Obama were actually to pull out the Dem nomination, I wouldn't be surprised if Richardson would be his VP choice. Would make sense on a lot of fronts.

 

[Balta1701]

So now, Obama seems to have pulled statistically even with Clinton in Iowa, and Edwards is falling back.

And on the other hand, ARG has Clinton pushing up to a 10 point Iowa lead.

[Rex Kickass]

Iowa polls are pretty worthless IMO.

[NorthSideSox72]

Iowa polls are pretty worthless IMO.

Why Iowa specifically?

 

[Rex Kickass]

Because of the method of their caucus. It's not a traditional voting system. It is all about organization on the ground there and getting people to as many house parties as possible.

 

Remember four years ago at this time, Kerry was dead in the water - and nobody was paying any attention to him nationally until the caucus day, when the media realized - oh s***, Kerry and Edwards have a good ground game and might actually win this thing.

[NorthSideSox72]

Because of the method of their caucus. It's not a traditional voting system. It is all about organization on the ground there and getting people to as many house parties as possible.

 

Remember four years ago at this time, Kerry was dead in the water - and nobody was paying any attention to him nationally until the caucus day, when the media realized - oh s***, Kerry and Edwards have a good ground game and might actually win this thing.

So, as far as you know, who has good ground games in Iowa?

 

[Balta1701]

So, as far as you know, who has good ground games in Iowa?

Well, Edwards has the potential benefit of having done this before, and Obama generally seems to have a motivated following, so in terms of ground games you might hypothetically think that they'd be in better shape than Hillarity. On the other hand though, Iowa seems to be moving its caucuses to January 3rd, and this is before Iowa's colleges will be back in session; hence, most of the students will be at home. And if they're registered at school, or they go to school out of state, then that could put a major dent in the ground game of those 2.

 

And then there are dramatic complicating factors beyond that. For example, in 04, Dennis Kucinich actually got to play something of a kingmaker, because on the eve of the convention he told all of his supporters to caucus for Mr. Edwards instead of himself, and that may well have been enough in terms of people and momentum to push Edwards into 2nd place over Dean. With Kucinich in this race again, and Richardson and others hanging out at the back, there's still plenty of room for movement right up until the end. It's not that hard to imagine one of these folks sitting down with Gov. Richardson and promising him a VP slot if his people caucus for that other candidate and push that person over the top, for example.

[Rex Kickass]

So, as far as you know, who has good ground games in Iowa?

 

Edwards has the backing of most of the state chapters of SEIU. Although the national chapter did not specifically endorse a candidate, the Iowa SEIU did endorse Edwards and other state chapters that also endorsed Edwards are allowed to send boots on the ground for him in Iowa. Edwards has the possibility of a massive ground game, thanks to his work getting labor to back him.

 

Obama is known for his union organizing grassroots tactics, and might have a very good ground game in Iowa.

 

Richardson has the money to spend on a good ground game there as well, I don't know enough about his organization to say if he could make a surprise happen.

 

The Ames straw poll makes me think Huckabee has a good shot at first or second in Iowa for the GOP and will be the not so surprising January surprise.

[Balta1701]

Hillary reportedly picks up the AFSCME endorsement.

[NorthSideSox72]

Well, Edwards has the potential benefit of having done this before, and Obama generally seems to have a motivated following, so in terms of ground games you might hypothetically think that they'd be in better shape than Hillarity. On the other hand though, Iowa seems to be moving its caucuses to January 3rd, and this is before Iowa's colleges will be back in session; hence, most of the students will be at home. And if they're registered at school, or they go to school out of state, then that could put a major dent in the ground game of those 2.

 

And then there are dramatic complicating factors beyond that. For example, in 04, Dennis Kucinich actually got to play something of a kingmaker, because on the eve of the convention he told all of his supporters to caucus for Mr. Edwards instead of himself, and that may well have been enough in terms of people and momentum to push Edwards into 2nd place over Dean. With Kucinich in this race again, and Richardson and others hanging out at the back, there's still plenty of room for movement right up until the end. It's not that hard to imagine one of these folks sitting down with Gov. Richardson and promising him a VP slot if his people caucus for that other candidate and push that person over the top, for example.

I think you are right about Richardson being in play right now for VP. He's at that 7 to 10% support level in IA and NH, which is exactly enough to make trouble, but also a really nice boost for any of the big 3. And I think Richardson has to know that he would need to finish top 2 in IA and NH to have a chance, which seems like an extreme longshot at this point. I mean, I hope he does it, but I don't see it. So, being the calculating guy he is, he's gotta be thinking VP.

 

Thing is, he really would be an ideal VP candidate for Obama. He's really a statesman, with serious foreign policy experience, as well as executive experience, which Obama doesn't have. He's an experienced, calculated guy, as opposed to Obama's youth and vigor. He has energy policy experience. And again, that 5 to 10% following would sure be nice.

 

But I am 90% sure that Clinton already made arrangements for a VP long ago, in Evan Bayh.

 

Edwards, I am not sure what his thinking might be on a VP candidate.

 

[NorthSideSox72]

I know the sponsor-a-candidate thing kind of died out, but, I thought I'd add something out here anyway. The Trib has been doing profiles, one candidate at a time. 4 to 5 pages on the web. Nice pieces, showing the good and the bad. Richardson's is now up, so I am linking it in. If you want to see what makes him unique, its a good read.

 

And you can go from there to the other candidates as well.

 

[Rex Kickass]

I think you are right about Richardson being in play right now for VP. He's at that 7 to 10% support level in IA and NH, which is exactly enough to make trouble, but also a really nice boost for any of the big 3. And I think Richardson has to know that he would need to finish top 2 in IA and NH to have a chance, which seems like an extreme longshot at this point. I mean, I hope he does it, but I don't see it. So, being the calculating guy he is, he's gotta be thinking VP.

 

Thing is, he really would be an ideal VP candidate for Obama. He's really a statesman, with serious foreign policy experience, as well as executive experience, which Obama doesn't have. He's an experienced, calculated guy, as opposed to Obama's youth and vigor. He has energy policy experience. And again, that 5 to 10% following would sure be nice.

 

But I am 90% sure that Clinton already made arrangements for a VP long ago, in Evan Bayh.

 

Edwards, I am not sure what his thinking might be on a VP candidate.

 

If two days before Richardson doesn't have the ground game he needs, that's when he plays kingmaker. Being in third place in Iowa and treading the 10% watermark is not a bad place to be two months before this caucus. A lot of things can come into play for him between now and then.

[NorthSideSox72]

If two days before Richardson doesn't have the ground game he needs, that's when he plays kingmaker. Being in third place in Iowa and treading the 10% watermark is not a bad place to be two months before this caucus. A lot of things can come into play for him between now and then.

If he hasn't broken past one of the top 3, or at least gotten very close to one of them, in IA and NH, by a week or two prior... he'll bow out in exchange for a slot. Richardson has never lost an election.

 

[Texsox]

You have to love politics. The dynamics are fascinating.

[Chet Lemon]

It looks like Biden and Richardson are campaigning more for Sec. of State than the Presidency.

[Rex Kickass]

Given how bad Hillary's debate performance was this week, a lot of things in this race changed.

[kapkomet]

Given how bad Hillary's debate performance was this week, a lot of things in this race changed.

Since I have not watched a lick of tv, or heard any news, she was that bad, eh? Well, what a pity.

[BigSqwert]

Since I have not watched a lick of tv, or heard any news, she was that bad, eh? Well, what a pity.

I watched most of the debate and think she only had 1 bad moment. I'm not a huge fan of hers but she came off as very confident and had pretty good responses most of the night. I become more impressed with Dodd the more I hear him.

[BigSqwert]

Democrat Barack Obama introduced a Senate resolution late Thursday that says President Bush does not have authority to use military force against Iran, the latest move in a debate with presidential rival Hillary Rodham Clinton about how to respond to that country's nuclear ambitions...

 

Obama spokesman Bill Burton said the Illinois senator drafted the measure in an effort to "nullify the vote the Senate took to give the president the benefit of the doubt on Iran."

 

Burton was referring to an amendment sponsored by Sens. Jon Kyl, R-Ariz., and Joe Lieberman, an independent from Connecticut, that passed 76-22 on Sept. 26 and designates Iran's Revolutionary Guard as a terrorist organization.

 

Clinton was the only Senate Democrat running for president to support the measure, and her rivals have argued that Bush could use it to justify war with Iran...

 

Said Obama spokesman Bill Burton: "With her vote for the war in Iraq and her vote for the Kyl-Lieberman amendment, Hillary Clinton has now given George Bush the benefit of the doubt not once, but twice. While she's trying her best to change her position on yet another critical issue facing our country, Senator Obama knows that it takes legislation, not letters, to undo the vote that she cast."

 

His resolution says any offensive military action against Iran must be explicitly authorized by Congress, and seeks to clarify that nothing approved so far provides that authority.

 

Link

[Rex Kickass]

I watched most of the debate and think she only had 1 bad moment. I'm not a huge fan of hers but she came off as very confident and had pretty good responses most of the night. I become more impressed with Dodd the more I hear him.

 

She didn't give a straight answer all night, and Edwards and Obama would immediately jump on it. At one point she contradicted her own stance on the illegal immigrants getting driver's license thing. She looked bad, distant and aloof.... and gave the field the opening they were waiting for.

[Balta1701]

She didn't give a straight answer all night, and Edwards and Obama would immediately jump on it. At one point she contradicted her own stance on the illegal immigrants getting driver's license thing. She looked bad, distant and aloof.... and gave the field the opening they were waiting for.

At least from the Text, Obama seems to have nailed one this morning on the Today Show.

MR. LAUER: Let's start where Andrea left off, this idea that when the guys challenged the gal at this debate this week, that in some ways you were ganging up on her. And you heard what Senator Clinton said at Wellesley yesterday. She said that in some ways that all-women's college prepared her for the all-boys' club of presidential politics.

 

Now, it sounds to me, Senator, as if I just heard the gender card drop. How are you going to deal with it?

 

SEN. OBAMA: (Laughs.) Well, look, I am assuming and I hope that Senator Clinton wants to be treated like everybody else. And I think that that's why she's running for president.

 

You know, when we had a debate back in Iowa a while back, we spent, I think, the first 15 minutes of the debate hitting me on various foreign policy issues. And I didn't come out and say, "Look, I'm being hit on because I look different from the rest of the folks on the stage." I assumed it was because there were real policy differences there. And I think that has to be the attitude that all of us take. We're not running for the president of the city council. We're running for the presidency of the United States of America.

 

MR. LAUER: So you don't feel as if you have to be sensitive at all to this gender issue, that if you do vigorously challenge Senator Clinton that it might take on a more perilous tone than if you vigorously challenge a male candidate?

 

SEN. OBAMA: No, look, I don't think that people doubt that Senator Clinton is tough. She's used to playing in national politics. And, in fact, that is one of the things that she has suggested is why she should be elected is because she's been playing in this rough-and- tumble stage. So it doesn't make sense for her, after having run that way for eight months, the first time that people start challenging her point of view, that suddenly she backs off and says, "Don't pick on me."

[NorthSideSox72]

Given how bad Hillary's debate performance was this week, a lot of things in this race changed.

Excellent.