DEM Primaries/Candidates thread

[Balta1701]

Faux News is reporting that the Clinton Campaign, in a major staff shakeup, is going to bring Carville and Begala back into the fold.

 

Carville swears it's not true.

I just reached Carville on his cell. Here's what he had to say about this:

 

"Fox was, is and will continue to be an asinine and ignorant network. I have not spoken to anyone in the Clinton campaign about this. I have not done domestic political consulting since President Clinton was elected. I'm not getting back into domestic political consulting. If I do go back, it would be safe to say that I'm the biggest liar in America."

 

Asked if he knew whether Begala would be coming back, Carville continued:

 

"To the extent that I know anything, as of nine this morning, no he is not.

[southsider2k5]

Thank you Balta. Interesting. I'd still like to see Mike's line of thinking and also the Romney aspect of it.

 

Balta hit the ball out of the park. Romney had one whole different set of positions as a governor of a very liberal state. Now as he has tried to push himself onto the national stage in the conservative realm, many very basic ideals have completely changed, which I do not believe happens to 99.9% of people. Most people's basic moral beliefs are shaped at a young age from a variety of sources, and while they might evolve somewhat, they really don't go under a drastic change. John Edwards has seemingly undergone the same drastic conversion in many aspects in the last four years. To me it tells me that I can't trust the person running, because if the situation suits them, they will betray the very reasons I would be voting for them in the first place.

[longshot7]

even though he's the exact opposite....?

 

i understand y'all don't like trial lawyers apparently, but i'm staying right now with a doctor who is a die hard edwards supporter. hmmm interesting that he doesn't fault him for his career choice.

 

Edwards, if you actually talked to the man - if you actually listened - is the most genuine candidate i think we've seen in a long time. why is it that every other candidate keeps stealing his ideas, platforms, even speeches? Yesterday i heard Clinton say "this is very personal for me". Straight out of John Edwards. Obama said "I walk the walk". Straight out of John Edwards. The health care plans? Edwards came up with it first - they took it and called it their own. He's been a leader on almost every issue but he's not black and he's not a woman so the media didn't care. He also is against the giant corporate conglomerates that RUN the media... so they have a stake in him losing.

 

look - yesterday i met some incredible people. people with nothing - literally clawing to survive. a house made of wooden shingles and a tin roof. IN AMERICA. These people have been thrown by the wayside. The husband of a couple i met lost his job cuz he was hurt. Now he's "supporting" his family off of SS. for how long? and is that enough? no. They told me about friends dying because they didn't have health insurance. I talked with him and his wife for half an hour yesterday and when i left i was near tears because it was that heartbreaking. I've never been so inspired in my life This is who Edwards is fighting for. These people NEED this man. Obama can't do it - doesn't have the balls. Clinton can't do it - she just doesn't care about these people. You all can bicker all you want about this that and the other, but right now I'm out here fighting for people with nothing and i'm fighting against huge odds to get a man into office who can change this country. Y'all might think i'm a bit crazy - but sometimes you need crazy people out there if you want to actually accomplish something.

 

Second that thing about admiring you for working for your guy. Very cool.

 

Why didn't he run for Senate again?

[southsider2k5]

I won't guarantee that this will convince you to support him but I appreciate your effort in looking into him.

 

Based on his positions I could never vote for the guy, but I respect him, which is more than I can say for the majority of people in both parties.

[Reddy]

ok new predictions. we're gonna get rocked.

[DBAHO]

That was a quick backflip there Reddy. What's changed in 18 hours or so?

[southsider2k5]

Second that thing about admiring you for working for your guy. Very cool.

 

Why didn't he run for Senate again?

 

The most electable people are the people who don't have a voting record to tear apart.

[Balta1701]

That was a quick backflip there Reddy. What's changed in 18 hours or so?

The Konerko, Orioles, Angels deal fell apart.

[NorthSideSox72]

ok new predictions. we're gonna get rocked.

I am now very curious. What is the information you guys are being given? And what is the new "plan" in the Edwards camp?

 

[DBAHO]

That Obama PDF file makes for some interesting reading.

 

Does anyone know where the Clinton one where (and maybe some of the other candidates for both sides?)

[Reddy]

I am now very curious. What is the information you guys are being given? And what is the new "plan" in the Edwards camp?

 

it's just a gut feeling. huge turnout, nice weather, otherwise nothing new... just a feeling. but in any case - we're not gonna drop out. the plan is now to let Clinton go ballistic on Obama and implode. Once she does, and maybe hurts Obama in the process, come back out as the nice guy. We'll see, may not work - in fact probably wont, but who knows. lol.

[Rex Kickass]

Edwards will stay "in" the race, but failing to finish second in SC sticks a fork in him. Bill Richardson is welcoming Senator Edwards back to the second tier!

[NorthSideSox72]

Oh yeah, they went there.

 

[kapkomet]

We might as well close the discussions. Hillarity is now your nominee.

[southsider2k5]

Polls are just pouring in now for NH. New ones over the 1/5-1/6 period (I'll just list the leader and lead)...

 

CNN: Obama +10

Suffolk: Obama +1

Gallup: Obama +13

Pierce: Obama +3

Str. Vis.: Obama +9

 

Those are the leads over Clinton. Edwards is running anywhere from 14 to 23 points behind Obama, and is no closer than 9 points behind Clinton.

 

Anyone else notice during the NH debate that Edwards aligned himself with Obama pretty clearly? Not sure if that's because he sees that as the winning route, or if he thinks it benefits him to get rid of Clinton, or if Obama and Edwards are approaching some sort of deal... could be any combination of those things.

 

Man the polls ended up being absolutely worthless in NH. That was something like a 15 point swing in one day from the major polls.

[NorthSideSox72]

Man the polls ended up being absolutely worthless in NH. That was something like a 15 point swing in one day from the major polls.

About a 10 point swing, and actually, the Suffolk/WNH polls (local) had it close to right. Everyone else was wrong.

 

And this is no more over now than it was after Iowa. Watch what happens after SC and NV - whomever does best that day, the media will say they have it in hand. They just sway with the wind. This is far from over.

 

Edwards will, as others have said, probably be the kingmaker. He's only pulling about 15% in SC right now, where he was born. If he can't do better than that, he'll probably drop out and crown someone at that point. If someone can do well in SC and NV, and get Edwards' support - THEN its over.

 

 

[BigSqwert]

Edwards is killing Obama. There is no way that his 15% would have went mostly to Clinton.

[NorthSideSox72]

Edwards is killing Obama. There is no way that his 15% would have went mostly to Clinton.

I've been considering this. The conventional thinking is that Edwards is taking more votes from Obama than from Clinton. I am not so sure. I think they might be about split. But in either case, if Edwards drops out after SC and gives his 15%-ish nationally to either candidate, that candidate will most likely win.

 

[HuskyCaucasian]

I've been considering this. The conventional thinking is that Edwards is taking more votes from Obama than from Clinton. I am not so sure. I think they might be about split. But in either case, if Edwards drops out after SC and gives his 15%-ish nationally to either candidate, that candidate will most likely win.

Remember, NV is a caucus. So, you could see something similar to what happened in Iowa were people flip to Obama Edwards as a second choice. And if Edwards isnt viable, that could be a huge boost to Obama.

[HuskyCaucasian]

Ya know... i got thinking last night, does it prove just how "unlikable" or "unelectable" Hillary is if she has to bring out Bill to make major pushes for her? I know Michelle Obama is speaking for Barack, but Bill is a HUGE draw. I bet a lot of voters are voting for him, not her.

[NorthSideSox72]

Ya know... i got thinking last night, does it prove just how "unlikable" or "unelectable" Hillary is if she has to bring out Bill to make major pushes for her? I know Michelle Obama is speaking for Barack, but Bill is a HUGE draw. I bet a lot of voters are voting for him, not her.

Of course they are. Nevermind that Hillary is NOT Bill, but that is a huge part of her draw. And this is one of the reasons why you hear a lot of complaints from the conservatives about the Clintons making an end-run on the Constitution - getting back into the Oval Office again.

 

[NorthSideSox72]

Remember, NV is a caucus. So, you could see something similar to what happened in Iowa were people flip to Obama Edwards as a second choice. And if Edwards isnt viable, that could be a huge boost to Obama.

That's true. And I also think we'll see how Hillary's new girlish charm attempts go over in the next week. It may work for her, or it may backfire.

 

[HuskyCaucasian]

That's true. And I also think we'll see how Hillary's new girlish charm attempts go over in the next week. It may work for her, or it may backfire.

I think if she gets TOO girly and emotion, it'll really backfire. She cant be soft. But she cant be as hard as she has been the past 6 months.

[Mplssoxfan]

Remember, NV is a caucus. So, you could see something similar to what happened in Iowa were people flip to Obama Edwards as a second choice. And if Edwards isnt viable, that could be a huge boost to Obama.

Does anyone know what the NV caucus rules are? If viability is set at 15%, like in Iowa, it will be interesting to see how second choices break. If the threshold for viability is lower, or if there is no threshold, not so much.

 

Edit: Found the rules.

 

The ratios used to determine viability are as follows:

• For precincts with one (1) delegate;

i. There is no viability threshold and the delegate shall be elected by

a simple majority vote of those eligible caucus attendees present

and voting.

• For precincts with two (2) delegates;

i. Viability shall be twenty-five percent (25%) of the eligible caucus

attendees present.

• For precincts with three (3) delegates;

i. Viability shall be one sixth (1/6) of the eligible caucus attendees

present;

• For precincts with four (4) or more delegates;

i. Viability shall be fifteen percent (15%) of the eligible caucus

attendees present.

• When determining viability the number will be rounded up (e.g. 6.1 = 7)

 

Pretty much the same, except in small precincts.

Edited January 9, 2008 by Mplssoxfan

[HuskyCaucasian]

Does anyone know what the NV caucus rules are? If viability is set at 15%, like in Iowa, it will be interesting to see how second choices break. If the threshold for viability is lower, or if there is no threshold, not so much.

I think it's a math formula. but probably close to 15%