BigSqwert Posted January 19, 2008 Share Posted January 19, 2008 Statement from Obama campaign manager David Plouffe: "We currently have reports of over 200 separate incidents of trouble at caucus sites, including doors being closed up to thirty minutes early, registration forms running out so people were turned away, and ID being requested and checked in a non-uniform fashion. This is in addition to the Clinton campaign's efforts to confuse voters and call into question the at-large caucus sites which clearly had an affect on turnout at these locations. These kinds of Clinton campaign tactics were part of an entire week's worth of false, divisive, attacks designed to mislead caucus-goers and discredit the caucus itself. "We will investigate all of these thoroughly and would encourage anyone who had concern about actions at the caucus sites to call (866) 675-2008." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HuskyCaucasian Posted January 19, 2008 Share Posted January 19, 2008 QUOTE(NorthSideSox72 @ Jan 19, 2008 -> 05:34 PM) Where are you getting that? Clinton had a chunk of them up front before Iowa, but since then, I see nothing but superdelegates going to Obama. At least, that's what is being reported. So where do you get this idea about them certainly going to Clinton? I agree. Obama is gaining superdelegate momentum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted January 19, 2008 Share Posted January 19, 2008 QUOTE(NorthSideSox72 @ Jan 19, 2008 -> 03:36 PM) You know what? I bet he picked up a few supers in NV, probably the ones that were favoring Richardson (NV had a couple aligned with Richardson previously, I remember seeing it). Actually, upon learning more...somehow he might be right. I'll defer to a blog: A current estimate of the national convention delegate count is below, though not all precincts have fully reported. District 1 Clinton 3, Obama 3 District 2 (Washoe) Clinton 1, Obama 2 District 2 (Rural) Clinton 0, Obama 1 District 2 (Clark) Clinton 1, Obama 1 District 3 (Clark) Clinton 2, Obama 2 At-Large Clinton 2, Obama 1 PLEO Clinton 3, Obama 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted January 19, 2008 Share Posted January 19, 2008 Right now, both sides are putting out vote fraud/intimidation/mess claims. Nothing ever comes from them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthSideSox72 Posted January 19, 2008 Author Share Posted January 19, 2008 The other big factor in a national primary of course is money - and Super Tuesday is basically a national primary. And even though everyone is talking about the mighty Clinton machine, Obama is also raising metric f***tons of money, right there with her. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigSqwert Posted January 19, 2008 Share Posted January 19, 2008 This is far from over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted January 19, 2008 Share Posted January 19, 2008 QUOTE(NorthSideSox72 @ Jan 19, 2008 -> 03:34 PM) Where are you getting that? Clinton had a chunk of them up front before Iowa, but since then, I see nothing but superdelegates going to Obama. At least, that's what is being reported. So where do you get this idea about them certainly going to Clinton? Clinton currently has 174 superdelegates pledged. Obama has 85. Do you really think there's going to be a tidal wave of superdelegates going against the trend once Hillary starts winning states on Feb 5? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthSideSox72 Posted January 19, 2008 Author Share Posted January 19, 2008 QUOTE(Balta1701 @ Jan 19, 2008 -> 05:37 PM) Right now, both sides are putting out vote fraud/intimidation/mess claims. Nothing ever comes from them. I think that the Clintons started the row with the whole intimidation story a day or two ago (which I think may have hurt Obama, true or not), so now the Obama camp has to hit back, or else risk looking guilty. This campaign has gotten exponentially uglier the last week or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthSideSox72 Posted January 19, 2008 Author Share Posted January 19, 2008 QUOTE(Balta1701 @ Jan 19, 2008 -> 05:39 PM) Clinton currently has 174 superdelegates pledged. Obama has 85. Do you really think there's going to be a tidal wave of superdelegates going against the trend once Hillary starts winning states on Feb 5? That large number she had was before Iowa - I remember looking at the CNN site and seeing that. At that time, remember, Clinton was still seen as the inevitable. Now that she's not, yes, I think things change. And they have already, as I noted. And again, the superdelegates are not averge joe's - they know that winning states is irrelevant. Its all about delegates. ETA: I take back irrelevant - winning states is MINOR - it gives perceived momentum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigSqwert Posted January 19, 2008 Share Posted January 19, 2008 Funny how you don't see robocalls smearing Clinton. Whatever it takes I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted January 19, 2008 Share Posted January 19, 2008 QUOTE(BigSqwert @ Jan 19, 2008 -> 03:42 PM) Funny how you don't see robocalls smearing Clinton. Whatever it takes I guess. Damn you Huckabee! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HuskyCaucasian Posted January 19, 2008 Share Posted January 19, 2008 Statement from Obama campaign manager David Plouffe: "We currently have reports of over 200 separate incidents of trouble at caucus sites, including doors being closed up to thirty minutes early, registration forms running out so people were turned away, and ID being requested and checked in a non-uniform fashion. This is in addition to the Clinton campaign's efforts to confuse voters and call into question the at-large caucus sites which clearly had an affect on turnout at these locations. These kinds of Clinton campaign tactics were part of an entire week's worth of false, divisive, attacks designed to mislead caucus-goers and discredit the caucus itself. "We will investigate all of these thoroughly and would encourage anyone who had concern about actions at the caucus sites to call (866) 675-2008." I am so torn on this. On one side they just need to move on. On the other side, I think they need to push this idea. I dont think they would make this alogation unless they KNEW but couldnt tell you. Kind of like how radio hosts will hint at something but cant come right out and tell you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted January 20, 2008 Share Posted January 20, 2008 (edited) QUOTE(Athomeboy_2000 @ Jan 19, 2008 -> 03:54 PM) I am so torn on this. On one side they just need to move on. On the other side, I think they need to push this idea. I dont think they would make this alogation unless they KNEW but couldnt tell you. Kind of like how radio hosts will hint at something but cant come right out and tell you. Right now the Nevada Democratic party is suggesting that they aren't going to take any steps to investigate the allegations, but there are steps individual voters could take if they felt their rights were infringed. In other words, it will amount to nought. Here's the current Kos diary with the one-sided summary of what people are saying they ran into, if you want more details. Edited January 20, 2008 by Balta1701 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mr_genius Posted January 20, 2008 Share Posted January 20, 2008 CNN says that Obama is currently set to receive 13 delegates from NV, Clinton 12. seems like good news for Obama Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reddy Posted January 20, 2008 Share Posted January 20, 2008 QUOTE(mr_genius @ Jan 19, 2008 -> 06:13 PM) CNN says that Obama is currently set to receive 13 delegates from NV, Clinton 12. seems like good news for Obama how does that make sense? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mr_genius Posted January 20, 2008 Share Posted January 20, 2008 (edited) QUOTE(Reddy @ Jan 19, 2008 -> 06:16 PM) how does that make sense? I have no idea. I guess Obama is claiming he got 13 delegates as well. Obama did well in the delegate count: AP says Clinton won 13 delegates, compared to 12 for Obama. The Obama campaign said it was 13-12 in his favor. http://dyn.politico.com/playbook/ Edited January 20, 2008 by mr_genius Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthSideSox72 Posted January 20, 2008 Author Share Posted January 20, 2008 QUOTE(Reddy @ Jan 19, 2008 -> 06:16 PM) how does that make sense? See Balta's post showing the regional breakdown. Plus, there are superdelegates, who don't have to follow the popular vote. Obama got the same number of delegates as Clinton in NH, despite Clinton winning by 3%. Clinton is winning the battles, but ever since Iowa, Obama has been winning the war. We'll see if its enough to stay close after Super Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted January 20, 2008 Share Posted January 20, 2008 QUOTE(NorthSideSox72 @ Jan 19, 2008 -> 04:26 PM) See Balta's post showing the regional breakdown. Plus, there are superdelegates, who don't have to follow the popular vote. Obama got the same number of delegates as Clinton in NH, despite Clinton winning by 3%. Clinton is winning the battles, but ever since Iowa, Obama has been winning the war. We'll see if its enough to stay close after Super Tuesday. Clinton so far has more Nevada super delegates than Obama, from what I'm reading. It appears that the Obama team argument is that there somehow the delegates are broken down by areas, with each area getting 3 delegates, and while Clinton may have won the most popular area, Obama pulled the electoral college type win and gets an extra delegate by virtue of winning the area battle. God I hate caucuses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthSideSox72 Posted January 20, 2008 Author Share Posted January 20, 2008 QUOTE(Balta1701 @ Jan 19, 2008 -> 06:30 PM) Clinton so far has more Nevada super delegates than Obama, from what I'm reading. It appears that the Obama team argument is that there somehow the delegates are broken down by areas, with each area getting 3 delegates, and while Clinton may have won the most popular area, Obama pulled the electoral college type win and gets an extra delegate by virtue of winning the area battle. God I hate caucuses. So now, CNN has the tied delegates at 12-12. That means 1 is currently open and going to no one. There seems to be some confusion. Nevada has 8 supers - and CNN doesn't have any as having declared. I'm sure some have though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted January 20, 2008 Share Posted January 20, 2008 Someone asked the Nevada Dem party chair about Obama's delegate win claim. Here's the response: I just spoke with Jill Derby, the head of the Nevada State Democratic Party. Regarding the Obama claim that he'll actually get more delegates out of this, essentially that's spin. Derby said that the caucuses are an "expression of the support of Nevadans today." Around 11,000 delegates were elected today. That will be winnowed down at county conventions and eventually at the state convention in May to the 25 that will go to Denver for the DNC. In 2004, Kerry didn't win every delegate on Election Day, but most of the delegates that eventually went to the DNC were his. Once there's a presumptive nominee, the delegate numbers are subject to change. It's non-binding. If that makes your head spin, the short version is that this was a beauty contest, and you can't project delegate numbers at this time. In other words...the delegate count today doesn't really matter one bit. If Clinton starts to pull away with a bunch of wins on Super Tuesday, most of those delegates Obama is counting will wind up going for Hillary at the convention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthSideSox72 Posted January 20, 2008 Author Share Posted January 20, 2008 QUOTE(Balta1701 @ Jan 19, 2008 -> 06:38 PM) Someone asked the Nevada Dem party chair about Obama's delegate win claim. Here's the response: In other words...the delegate count today doesn't really matter one bit. If Clinton starts to pull away with a bunch of wins on Super Tuesday, most of those delegates Obama is counting will wind up going for Hillary at the convention. No, in other words, today's delegate count matters - but they can change when they want to. And most of the supers that Clinton has in that big lead you mentioned, could wind up anywhere. That only makes Obama that much more in it. Those early Clinton committals are not binding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted January 20, 2008 Share Posted January 20, 2008 QUOTE(NorthSideSox72 @ Jan 19, 2008 -> 04:42 PM) No, in other words, today's delegate count matters - but they can change when they want to. And most of the supers that Clinton has in that big lead you mentioned, could wind up anywhere. That only makes Obama that much more in it. Those early Clinton committals are not binding. But you're assuming that somehow Obama can overcome his deficit in national and state by state pollings on Super Tuesday. Which means that something has to go horribly wrong for Clinton beforehand, because 1 win in South Carolina is not going to be enough to do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthSideSox72 Posted January 20, 2008 Author Share Posted January 20, 2008 QUOTE(Balta1701 @ Jan 19, 2008 -> 06:44 PM) But you're assuming that somehow Obama can overcome his deficit in national and state by state pollings on Super Tuesday. Which means that something has to go horribly wrong for Clinton beforehand, because 1 win in South Carolina is not going to be enough to do that. Well SC is the last state before Super Tuesday, so, its important to an extent. But again, I'm not saying he is going to win Super Tuesday or even match Clinton - I am saying he doesn't have to. If after Super Tuesday Clinton has less than 50% of the vote-result delegates, then I think Obama has the inside track. Think about this. If after Super Tuesday, it looks like this (in delegates)... Clinton: 45% Obama: 40% Edwards: 15% Think about the final result of that, if that trend more or less sticks through to Denver. Even if Clinton has a slight edge in Supers, those supers are only 19% of the delegates. So basically, if the numbers look like the above after Super Tuesday, I'll put my money on Obama. Now, if Clinton is significantly above 50% on Feb 6, then, I'll say Clinton has it in the bag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rex Kickass Posted January 20, 2008 Share Posted January 20, 2008 By the way, Obama really won Nevada. Despite Hillary winning more caucus delegates, because of the geographic location of the delegates that Obama and Hillary won, Obama is awarded 13, Clinton 12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HuskyCaucasian Posted January 20, 2008 Share Posted January 20, 2008 (edited) QUOTE(Rex Kicka** @ Jan 19, 2008 -> 09:40 PM) By the way, Obama really won Nevada. Despite Hillary winning more caucus delegates, because of the geographic location of the delegates that Obama and Hillary won, Obama is awarded 13, Clinton 12. A) want to see Hillary spin this. B ) I'd LOVE to see the major media outlets report this. Dont ignore it. Edited January 20, 2008 by Athomeboy_2000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts