southsider2k5 Posted January 23, 2008 Share Posted January 23, 2008 QUOTE(Heads22 @ Jan 23, 2008 -> 01:53 PM) We had it right here. Listen to Iowa more. What is "Things you will never hear anyone say" for $1000 Alex! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kapkomet Posted January 23, 2008 Share Posted January 23, 2008 QUOTE(NorthSideSox72 @ Jan 23, 2008 -> 01:09 PM) She has been fighting because she had such huge leads before the primaries and caucuses started, and she lost that lead pretty much entirely. She was watching her candidacy walk slowly away from her. She then reacted, starting the week before NH, becoming an entirely different candidate. And that worked for her in NH and NV - we'll see if it keeps working though. By the time it won't work, it's too late. IT'S OVER. The media has latched on and will not let go of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rex Kickass Posted January 23, 2008 Share Posted January 23, 2008 We thought the same thing before Iowa. We thought that it was over before NH. Except it wasn't. If Obama wins by 6 or 7 points in SC, suddenly we see a new narrative here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kapkomet Posted January 23, 2008 Share Posted January 23, 2008 QUOTE(Rex Kicka** @ Jan 23, 2008 -> 05:37 PM) We thought the same thing before Iowa. We thought that it was over before NH. Except it wasn't. If Obama wins by 6 or 7 points in SC, suddenly we see a new narrative here. I didn't think it was over before NH, for what it's worth. SC is not a player in the overall momentum, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted January 23, 2008 Share Posted January 23, 2008 QUOTE(Rex Kicka** @ Jan 23, 2008 -> 03:37 PM) We thought the same thing before Iowa. We thought that it was over before NH. Except it wasn't. If Obama wins by 6 or 7 points in SC, suddenly we see a new narrative here. Yeah, Clinton has even more momentum because she closed the gap from what could have been a double digit loss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthSideSox72 Posted January 24, 2008 Author Share Posted January 24, 2008 QUOTE(Balta1701 @ Jan 23, 2008 -> 06:39 PM) Yeah, Clinton has even more momentum because she closed the gap from what could have been a double digit loss. Latest poll says 19 point Obama lead. Clinton hasn't closed any gaps in SC, unless its happened since the debate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted January 24, 2008 Share Posted January 24, 2008 QUOTE(NorthSideSox72 @ Jan 23, 2008 -> 04:23 PM) Latest poll says 19 point Obama lead. Clinton hasn't closed any gaps in SC, unless its happened since the debate. Exactly. So if Clinton loses by 6 or 7, it's a win for her. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthSideSox72 Posted January 24, 2008 Author Share Posted January 24, 2008 QUOTE(Balta1701 @ Jan 23, 2008 -> 07:29 PM) Exactly. So if Clinton loses by 6 or 7, it's a win for her. Eh, maybe. So you are calling a 6 or 7 point win? Tell you what. Gentlemen's bet. I'll call double digit win for Obama (10+). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted January 24, 2008 Share Posted January 24, 2008 QUOTE(NorthSideSox72 @ Jan 23, 2008 -> 04:35 PM) Eh, maybe. So you are calling a 6 or 7 point win? Tell you what. Gentlemen's bet. I'll call double digit win for Obama (10+). No, I'm just responding to Rex's post that said waht would happen if BO had a 6 or 7 point win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted January 24, 2008 Share Posted January 24, 2008 QUOTE(NorthSideSox72 @ Jan 23, 2008 -> 06:23 PM) Latest poll says 19 point Obama lead. Clinton hasn't closed any gaps in SC, unless its happened since the debate. With the racial breakdown in SC, I think it is going to be a BIG number. They aren't going to take kindly to Barack being savaged by the Vast Clinton Conspiracy Team. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigSqwert Posted January 24, 2008 Share Posted January 24, 2008 QUOTE(Athomeboy_2000 @ Jan 23, 2008 -> 12:50 PM) Guess who's up to the same ol' $h1t again?? Clinton goes after Obama's Republican comments in radio ad Obama calls $100 and raises $1000. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted January 24, 2008 Share Posted January 24, 2008 QUOTE(BigSqwert @ Jan 23, 2008 -> 07:12 PM) Obama calls $100 and raises $1000. I really hate this part of a campaign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigSqwert Posted January 24, 2008 Share Posted January 24, 2008 QUOTE(Balta1701 @ Jan 23, 2008 -> 09:17 PM) I really hate this part of a campaign. Everyone complained when Kerry didn't fight back in 2004 so what is he to do? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted January 24, 2008 Share Posted January 24, 2008 QUOTE(BigSqwert @ Jan 23, 2008 -> 07:18 PM) Everyone complained when Kerry didn't fight back in 2004 so what is he to do? I didn't mind Kerry not fighting back as much as I minded the press not being willing to spend the time and figure out that every single thing the Swift Vets wrote was a lie and could be proven as such with a small bit of geography and math. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthSideSox72 Posted January 24, 2008 Author Share Posted January 24, 2008 QUOTE(BigSqwert @ Jan 23, 2008 -> 10:18 PM) Everyone complained when Kerry didn't fight back in 2004 so what is he to do? Obama is doing what he has to do. The only smart thing, really. But the fact that it has to be that way makes people a little sad. Me included. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigruss Posted January 24, 2008 Share Posted January 24, 2008 QUOTE(BigSqwert @ Jan 23, 2008 -> 10:18 PM) Everyone complained when Kerry didn't fight back in 2004 so what is he to do? I wish it never had to even come to fighting back. But we all know that will never be the case again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DBAHO Posted January 24, 2008 Share Posted January 24, 2008 So Obama has to basically win SC by double digits in order to get back into this race? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted January 24, 2008 Share Posted January 24, 2008 QUOTE(DBAH0 @ Jan 23, 2008 -> 07:21 PM) So Obama has to basically win SC by double digits in order to get back into this race? IMO, ther'es nothing Obama can actually do that will get him back into the race. He's losing a lot of super Tuesday polls and Clinton is steady in national polls. The only thing that brings him back into the race is a major Hillary slip up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kapkomet Posted January 24, 2008 Share Posted January 24, 2008 QUOTE(Balta1701 @ Jan 23, 2008 -> 09:23 PM) IMO, ther'es nothing Obama can actually do that will get him back into the race. He's losing a lot of super Tuesday polls and Clinton is steady in national polls. The only thing that brings him back into the race is a major Hillary slip up. *DING* And it amazes me how much head in sand people there are on this board. No offense to any of you, and I'll GLADLY eat crow if it's not true... but there's NO WAY that Hillarity loses this nomination now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthSideSox72 Posted January 24, 2008 Author Share Posted January 24, 2008 QUOTE(DBAH0 @ Jan 23, 2008 -> 10:21 PM) So Obama has to basically win SC by double digits in order to get back into this race? Well, if you ask Balta or any of the GOP'ers on here, its over. Some of the rest of us believe that's just not the case. Winning SC big helps, but honestly, probably not a lot. To stay in it, Obama needs a solid victory in SC, and then he needs to do well enough on Super Tuesday to keep Clinton below 50% of the delegate total (through that date). If he and Edwards can do that, then I am guessing this thing goes all the way to Denver and a brokered convention. If on the other hand, Clinton, after Super Tuesday, has significantly more than 50% of the delegates... then Obama is basically dead. All this, of course, is barring something unexpected... such as Edwards dropping out and endorsing someone, or one of Obama/Clinton having some major slip-up or a skeleton coming out of their closet. I think Obama wins SC pretty big. After that, and the California debates, and some national campaigning (which Obama and Clinton haven't done much of yet), we'll start to see what the polls look like in Super Tuesday states. What they appear to be within the days beforehand will give some indication. If Clinton has large leads in the big delegate states, its probably over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthSideSox72 Posted January 24, 2008 Author Share Posted January 24, 2008 QUOTE(DBAH0 @ Jan 23, 2008 -> 10:21 PM) So Obama has to basically win SC by double digits in order to get back into this race? Oh, one other thing I should have added. Winning Super Tuesday, or even winning the most delegates, will probably not win the nomination. That's why both candidates are still very alive. Look at the math... If Edwards keeps pulling his 15 or 20% (as he has outside of Nevada's bizarre caucus), then that means one of Clinton or Obama would have to beat the other candidate by that much in delegates to win before Denver. In other words, even if Clinton beats Obama on average by 10 or 12 points on Super Tuesday, Clinton still doesn't have 50%. Why does this matter? Because that means Edwards has the chance to endorse a candidate, pushing his delegates to that candidate - pushing them over 50%. So unless Edwards leaves the race and doesn't endorse, or Edwards starts falling way down (like below 10%), or one of Clinton/Obama win by 15%+ across the board on Super Tuesday, that is where we are headed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthSideSox72 Posted January 24, 2008 Author Share Posted January 24, 2008 Oh yes, and yet another factor here. As Balta has pointed out, a lot of the Superdelegates (who are not attached to results of primaries, and who are 19% of the total) are still on the sidelines, waiting to be associated with a winner. Which means, as long as he is in it, that they are more likely to endorse Obama for that reason. Because you see, more than anything, the Dems want the prize - a win in November. And as long as Obama continues to look like a much more electable candidate (his numbers against various GOP candidates are best among Dems), then he gives them the best chance at that. Slick Willy was nice and all, but these folks want Dem control of 2 branches of government in a year, and that trumps loyalty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rex Kickass Posted January 24, 2008 Share Posted January 24, 2008 My head isn't in the sand. But a strong win for Obama in SC changes the press narrative. And that changes the polls. The truth is, Super Tuesday polls are pretty meaningless at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigSqwert Posted January 24, 2008 Share Posted January 24, 2008 Listen to Obama's radio ad here--> LINK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kapkomet Posted January 24, 2008 Share Posted January 24, 2008 Listen, to all you Obama supporters, I REALLY hope you are right and come out on top. You see, I could never vote for Obama because of the stances he has. BUT, I can *RESPECT* Obama if he were elected, assuming he doesn't go to the dark side of being an asshole because he's president. And that for me is huge. I can disagree with some of the politics, but at least have some integrity and straightforward discussions about policy. The Clintons, obviously, do not have that. I hope he pulls it out, but I don't think it will happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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