HuskyCaucasian Posted February 3, 2008 Share Posted February 3, 2008 QUOTE(Rex Kicka** @ Feb 3, 2008 -> 09:23 AM) It is a Zogby poll though. I'd take that with a pound of salt. I would normally too, but it's sample size is 1141 LV! That is compared to others with half the size or less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rex Kickass Posted February 3, 2008 Share Posted February 3, 2008 But the Zogby methodology is generally flawed. However with Rasmussen polls showing similar moves, that's reason to be excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthSideSox72 Posted February 3, 2008 Author Share Posted February 3, 2008 QUOTE(Athomeboy_2000 @ Feb 3, 2008 -> 09:43 AM) I would normally too, but it's sample size is 1141 LV! That is compared to others with half the size or less. Zogby uses terrible methodology, and his lack of success in previous elections has proven that out. I wouldn't rely on it. That said, a Field poll was just published in CA that shows Clinton's lead down to 2, and Rasmussen's most recent was +3. So its definitely getting close. In NJ, two polls taken around the same time as Zogby's show Clinton's lead at +7 or +14. That's a lot close than the +26 it was 2 weeks ago, but still not a tie. In MO, looks like +4 or +6 for Clinton in the last two non-Zogby polls. Here is a new one - AZ polls in the last few days show Clinton's lead at +6 and +2, where it was close to +20 a couple weeks ago. Obama still holds a crushing 29 to 31 point lead in Illinois. Clinton's NY lead looks like 16 to 21. Here are, to me, the two states that seem to be bucking the positive trend for Obama - OK and TN. Oklahoma's not real big, but, Clinton holds a 23 point lead according to the "Sooner Poll" - and oddly, John Edwards still shows more than 20% support there. The poll was taken 1/27-30, so, many respondants probably didn't know that Edwards dropped out. We'll see what happens there. Then there is Tennesee, whose 85 delegates are nothing to sneeze at, has some really erratic poll numbers. Three polls taken in the 1/28-30 time period show Clinton leads of +5, +14 and +33. That's a huge spread, but it certainly doesn't look good for Obama. And Edwards wasn't even in that +33 poll. The gap is closing, and quickly - but will it be enough? And can Obama do anything about those mid-sized states like OK and TN? Are they even worth the time to go there? Here are some big-ish states, by the way, who haven't had a poll in recent weeks, and could be difference makers: Minnesota (88), Colorado (71), Arkansas (41, and Clinton should be huge there), Kansas (41) and New Mexico (38). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthSideSox72 Posted February 3, 2008 Author Share Posted February 3, 2008 Here is an interesting set of polling data. ABC/WaPo did some head-to-head polls recently. Here are the results: Romney v Clinton: Clinton: 53 Romney: 41 Romney v Obama: Obama: 59 Romney: 34 McCain v Clinton: McCain: 49 Clinton: 46 McCain v Obama: Obama: 49 McCain: 46 So, the GOP is really hoping for a McCain nomination if they want to win in November, and the Dems should be wanting an Obama win for the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthSideSox72 Posted February 3, 2008 Author Share Posted February 3, 2008 And, just to throw a bone to the Obama supporters, here is a fun fact reported in the WaPo... Obama spoke yesterday at Boise State University in Idaho. He drew a crowd of 14,000 people - that is 3 times the number of total voters who participated in the Dem Caucus in Idaho in 2004. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthSideSox72 Posted February 3, 2008 Author Share Posted February 3, 2008 Don't dismiss the importance of this in Minnesota... Garrison Keillor endorses Obama. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthSideSox72 Posted February 3, 2008 Author Share Posted February 3, 2008 Rasmussen updates California - Now Obama +1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigSqwert Posted February 3, 2008 Share Posted February 3, 2008 Pro-Clinton push polling in California. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthSideSox72 Posted February 3, 2008 Author Share Posted February 3, 2008 Sorry, I should have just made this one big Polls post, but... Utah has its first poll out. For the Dems... Obama: 53% Clinton: 29% Its a small state of course, but hey, its 29 delegates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kapkomet Posted February 3, 2008 Share Posted February 3, 2008 *dreams, sweet dreams* I'll be looking for my picture of a crow Wednesday morning if it comes true for you Obama hopers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthSideSox72 Posted February 4, 2008 Author Share Posted February 4, 2008 QUOTE(NorthSideSox72 @ Feb 3, 2008 -> 03:03 PM) Rasmussen updates California - Now Obama +1. New Suffolk poll shows the same - Obama +1. That's the three most recent polls all showing an Obama lead in CA, the biggest prize on SDOGPEIT. Dare I say it? Instead of just trying to keep pace on SDOGPEIT or stay close, might Obama actually WIN SDOGPEIT? He actually has a chance. He does that, plus the lead he already has in delegates, and with his superior head-to-head results agains the GOP (of which the Dem superdelegates are, I am sure, aware)... I think that makes him the front-runner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigSqwert Posted February 4, 2008 Share Posted February 4, 2008 Maria Shriver showed up unexpectedly at the Michelle/Oprah/Caroline event and endorsed Obama. Crowd went insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthSideSox72 Posted February 4, 2008 Author Share Posted February 4, 2008 QUOTE(BigSqwert @ Feb 3, 2008 -> 07:05 PM) Maria Shriver showed up unexpectedly at the Michelle/Oprah/Caroline event and endorsed Obama. Crowd went insane. Wait... seriously? Schwarzenegger's wife endorsed Obama? I know she's a Kennedy and all, but, still. Source? EDIT: Just saw it on CNN, nevermind. I was not expecting that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted February 4, 2008 Share Posted February 4, 2008 CBS/NYT: 41/41. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted February 4, 2008 Share Posted February 4, 2008 QUOTE(NorthSideSox72 @ Feb 3, 2008 -> 04:02 PM) New Suffolk poll shows the same - Obama +1. That's the three most recent polls all showing an Obama lead in CA, the biggest prize on SDOGPEIT. Dare I say it? Instead of just trying to keep pace on SDOGPEIT or stay close, might Obama actually WIN SDOGPEIT? He actually has a chance. He does that, plus the lead he already has in delegates, and with his superior head-to-head results agains the GOP (of which the Dem superdelegates are, I am sure, aware)... I think that makes him the front-runner. He has a shot. Even essentially nearly a tie in delegates would be enough, as he's not the front runner, and from what I've read, the rest of Feb. is more favorable to him than Tuesday. Especially since his fundraising seems to be going crazy while Hillary is kind of hitting the wall since so much more of her support comes from big donors that can't give any more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kapkomet Posted February 4, 2008 Share Posted February 4, 2008 *sweet dreams...* I just can't resist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlaSoxxJim Posted February 4, 2008 Share Posted February 4, 2008 QUOTE(BigSqwert @ Feb 3, 2008 -> 08:05 PM) Maria Shriver showed up unexpectedly at the Michelle/Oprah/Caroline event and endorsed Obama. Crowd went insane. Cool, somebody thank her and buy her a sammich. Seriously, that lady could use a big sammich or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted February 4, 2008 Share Posted February 4, 2008 QUOTE(kapkomet @ Feb 3, 2008 -> 07:40 PM) *sweet dreams...* I just can't resist. I know, I know, my record isn't that good when I get my hopes up. But hey, that Manning pass was completed. So why not another prayer of a toss here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigSqwert Posted February 4, 2008 Share Posted February 4, 2008 QUOTE(FlaSoxxJim @ Feb 3, 2008 -> 09:44 PM) Seriously, that lady could use a big sammich or two. Heh. I was thinking the same thing. Maybe Arnold hogs all the food at the dinner table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NUKE_CLEVELAND Posted February 4, 2008 Share Posted February 4, 2008 http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5g8-DEMt...ZefmRQD8UIVGG00 So now Hillary wants to garnish people's wages and force them to enroll in her socialized health care scheme huh? PLEASE DEMOCRATS!!! PLEASE CHOOSE COMRADE HILLARY AS YOUR NOMINEE!!! We Republicans will need all the help we can get this time out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthSideSox72 Posted February 4, 2008 Author Share Posted February 4, 2008 Polls update... Two new NATIONAL polls shows an Obama lead and a tie... CNN, 500 LV, 2/1-3 Obama: 49% Clinton: 46% CBS, 1084 LV, 1/30-2/2 Clinton, Obama: 41% New Jersey seems to be closing up a bit. Two new polls from there... Quinnipiac, 463 LV, 1/30-2/3 Clinton: 48% Obama: 43% Strategic Vision, 600 LV, 2/1-3 Clinton: 47% Obama: 41% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted February 4, 2008 Share Posted February 4, 2008 Here is a crazy thought... With Super Tuesday on the Democratic side shaping up to be a super close race, could the May 6th Indiana Primaries end up being a key vote for determining the Dem's candidate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rex Kickass Posted February 4, 2008 Share Posted February 4, 2008 If this ends up tomorrow as close as it is. This goes to the convention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greasywheels121 Posted February 4, 2008 Share Posted February 4, 2008 QUOTE(southsider2k5 @ Feb 4, 2008 -> 09:24 AM) Here is a crazy thought... With Super Tuesday on the Democratic side shaping up to be a super close race, could the May 6th Indiana Primaries end up being a key vote for determining the Dem's candidate? That'd be the first time Indiana would ever matter. What are your thoughts on Indiana thinking about moving up their primary to around the same time NH has its primary? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthSideSox72 Posted February 4, 2008 Author Share Posted February 4, 2008 QUOTE(southsider2k5 @ Feb 4, 2008 -> 08:24 AM) Here is a crazy thought... With Super Tuesday on the Democratic side shaping up to be a super close race, could the May 6th Indiana Primaries end up being a key vote for determining the Dem's candidate? Possible. Clinton would have the advantage of heavy support from Evan Bayh, and the fact that its a red state. But, Obama would have a lot of carry in NW Indiana, and urban areas in Indianapolis, I'd think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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