GOP Primaries/Candidates thread

[NorthSideSox72]

A high level Romney Supporter is alleging in the Washington Times that the Thompson campaign paid off the National Right to Life committee in exchange for its endorsement.

Sour grapes if I've ever heard it. 100% speculation. Thompson has a record well-aligned with that organization - this should be no surprise to anyone.

 

[southsider2k5]

A high level Romney Supporter is alleging in the Washington Times that the Thompson campaign paid off the National Right to Life committee in exchange for its endorsement.

 

So do they actually have some proof or is this just slander?

[Texsox]

So do they actually have some proof or is this just slander?

 

They would say it was idle speculation, but slander works.

[YASNY]

They would say it was idle speculation, but slander works.

 

In this case, the slander may bite Romney more than it bites Thompson.

[NorthSideSox72]

In this case, the slander may bite Romney more than it bites Thompson.

And it only highlights the endorsement further for Thompson anyway. Makes the story linger.

 

[Texsox]

And it only highlights the endorsement further for Thompson anyway. Makes the story linger.

 

Is Pro-Life that important of an endorsement anymore?

[NorthSideSox72]

Is Pro-Life that important of an endorsement anymore?

For a certain slice of the Republican base, I'd say it is. That slice may be a bit smaller nowadays, but its still a big chunk.

 

[southsider2k5]

For a certain slice of the Republican base, I'd say it is. That slice may be a bit smaller nowadays, but its still a big chunk.

 

Especially when you consider Guillianis abortion stance, and the fact that Romney has flipped flopped on this issue.

[Texsox]

Especially when you consider Guillianis abortion stance, and the fact that Romney has flipped flopped on this issue.

 

And looking at the polls is what made me question how important it has become in the GOP.

[NorthSideSox72]

And looking at the polls is what made me question how important it has become in the GOP.

The polls contain clues, but its not as simple as the numbers look.

 

Giuliani is the only pro-choice candidate, and he has 20-something percent support. The other 70-something percent are against him. They don't want a social moderate. Also, look at the trends. Huckabee, Romney and McCain are all on the rise to some extent. Giuliani is really the only one falling significantly. And Thompson's weak numbers are pretty clearly not a result of his issue stands - its his campaign. Finally, note that Giuliani leads national polls, but in states he has actually campaigned in - states where they have gotten an actual look at the candidates - he's way behind. That's a key stat. He's less liked the more people see of him. His standing in the national polls is name recognition, 9/11 and not much else.

 

The religious conservatives have been sitting on the sidelines or spread out over other candidates. When the field thins, and Giuliani doesn't win IA or NH, the couple or three candidates who do well in those states will pick up the votes of the drop-outs as well as some from Giuliani, and he's done.

 

[Texsox]

Thank you. Great analysis

[EvilMonkey]

The abortion issue is more important in the primaries than the general election. The 'base' tends to vote more in the primaries.

[Balta1701]

For now it's still an outlier, but it's also following the recent trends, so it's worth noting this ARG poll showing Huckabee and Romney statistically tied in Iowa.

Iowa

Likely Republican Caucus Goers Nov 10-14

Giuliani 11%

Huckabee 24%

Hunter 1%

Keyes -

McCain 10%

Paul 3%

Romney 26%

Tancredo 1%

Thompson 11%

Undecided 13%

[NorthSideSox72]

For now it's still an outlier, but it's also following the recent trends, so it's worth noting this ARG poll showing Huckabee and Romney statistically tied in Iowa.

And Giuliani falling like a rock: 21% in September, 16% in October, 11% in November.

 

[southsider2k5]

And Giuliani falling like a rock: 21% in September, 16% in October, 11% in November.

 

Good. Keep him out of the general election!

[mr_genius]

Good. Keep him out of the general election!

 

 

Huckabee

[southsider2k5]

So I made the big effort and watched Fred Thompson get interviewed with George Stephanapolis, and it was pretty interesting. I can see why America really has a hard time with Thompson. Despite the years of acting, he just doesn't have that shyster polish that we all have come to expect from our politicians. He "ers" and "ahs" a lot, but the most amazing this to me is that he is not afraid to say the words you never hear out of a politicians mouth... "I don't know". Once you actually get past all of that, he is a really facinating candidate. He is the only person, besides Ron Paul, that I have really heard use the term "state's right", which makes me all warm and creamy inside.

 

One exchange that was particularly interesting was abortion and Roe V Wade. Steph asked him about the overturn of the case at the supreme court level. Dispite Thompsons 100% voting record against all things abortion, he still stood for his beliefs and said that he truely felt that this was an issue which should be decided on a state by state basis, and not by the federal government, and not by the supreme court.

 

Maybe it is because most of the time I don't know whether I should be buying a car or what when I hear anyone running for higher office talk, but I really liked listening to Thompson. He sounded so different from anyone else so far, it just blew my mind.

[southsider2k5]

This might be one of the oddest things I have seen before, a candidate potentially pushing polling against himself?

 

 

http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=Y2ZkM...ThmYjJmM2ZmOGE=

 

Did Mitt Romney Push Poll Himself?

A web of connections.

 

By Mark Hemingway

 

News broke Thursday that voters in New Hampshire and Iowa had received phone calls from pollsters raising questions about aspects of Republican Mitt Romney’s Mormon faith. Who made the calls? Although the Romney campaign denies involvement, evidence points in its general direction.

 

The anti-Mormon calls are part of a highly unethical but not uncommon political campaign tactic known as push polling.

 

Not surprisingly, the former governor of Massachusetts denounced the calls in no uncertain terms Friday. “I think the attempts to attack me on the basis of my faith are un-American,” Romney said in a video sent out by his campaign. “This is a time when we’re preparing for Thanksgiving, a time when we’re going to celebrate the fact that this nation was founded in part to allow people to enjoy religious freedom. We celebrate the diversity of different thoughts and beliefs and the idea that people would attack religion at a time like this is frankly un-American.”

 

“Un-American” in the Campaign Family?

Shortly after reports of Romney being targeted in a push poll emerged, the firm making the calls was identified as Western Wats, which is based in Utah and has a number of Romney campaign contributors on the payroll. Western Wats was founded by Ron Lindorf who has ties to the business school at the Mormon-owned Brigham Young University, Romney’s alma mater (Lindorf has since divested himself from the company). Lindorf’s brother Paul and his wife Teena are avid supporters of Romney (Paul is a former employee of Western Wats who retired five years ago; Paul and Teena claim not to know Romney or have a vested interest in his campaign).

 

Evidence collected from Internet bulletin boards dedicated to tracking telemarketers and nuisance phone calls suggests that Western Wats may be tied directly to the Romney campaign.

 

This is how Whocalled.us describes its mission:

 

 

The phone is ringing, and I don't recognize the number,

All Caller ID says is, "NAME UNAVAILABLE".

Please help me figure out who is calling and what they want

 

Site users can post information about the calls they have received and who they came from, creating a searchable reference for others. On Whocalled.us there are 16 reports of people receiving unwanted calls from Western Wats using the phone number (801) 623-4621 going back to October of last year. Dial that number and you will be connected to Western Wats.

 

On another website, Whocallsme.com, “a user supplied database of phone numbers of telemarketers, non-profit organizations, charities, political surveyors, SCAM artists, and other companies that don't leave messages, disconnect once you answer, ignore the Do-Not-Call List regulations, and simply interrupt your day,” has a page tracking unwanted calls from the number above.

 

According to Whocallsme.com, on August 16 — almost exactly three months before the anti-Romney calls were made in Iowa and New Hampshire, a user named Bruce reported:

 

Call from Amanda at Target Point Consulting

www.targetpointconsulting.com

66 Canal Center Plaza No. 555

Alexandria, VA 22314

(703) 535-8505

fax: (703) 535-8517

[email protected]

Caller ID: (801) 623-4621 [Emphasis Added]

Caller: Target Point Consulting

A Western Wats-Target Point connection sets off alarm bells since the Romney campaign has paid Target Point consulting $720,000 (see here and here).

 

Target Point’s president, Alex Gage, is a pioneer in the direct-marketing data-mining technique known as microtargeting. The Bush campaign spent nearly $3 million on Gage and Target Point’s services in the 2004 election. In the 2008 election cycle, Gage has been working closely with Romney. The Washington Post headlined an article about Gage “Romney’s Data Cruncher” and has elsewhere identified Gage as part of “Mitt Romney’s Inner Circle.”

 

Adding to the intrigue, Western Wats employs a dialer named Amanda Earnshaw who, according to election records, has made the maximum allowable donation of $2,300 to Romney’s campaign. Further, Federal Election Commission records reveal that Amanda’s husband Seth Hutchings, her father Craig Earnshaw, mother Colleen, and brother Berton have all maxed out donations to the Romney campaign. Craig Earnshaw is active in Romney’s campaign, serving as Utah’s co-chair for the state’s “Rally for Romney” fundraiser on September 28, 2007.

 

“I would reject outright any insinuation that our campaign would be involved with making calls against our own candidate,” Romney spokesman told NRO Sunday night in response to the connections.

 

For its part, Western Wats has issued a statement on its website denying that it engages in push polling although the only source that the company has spoken to about the matter is a blogger on mymanmitt.com.

 

However, there’s a growing chorus of voices speculating Romney push polled himself. “I smell a dirty trick. I suspect a pro-Romney motive to inoculate against future use of the religious issue and to breed sympathy for Romney … a 20-minute call is the work of an amateur. The long call is designed to get ALL the negatives out, to put them off limits for future attacks,” Roger Stone — a master of Republican dirty tricks — told The Politico’s Jonathan Martin. Stone pointed out that Robert F. Kennedy was behind anti-Catholic campaign tricks — calls and literature — to help get the first Catholic president elected. An anonymous website attacking Fred Thompson with ties to the Romney consultants in South Carolina earlier this cycle suggests such earnestness may not be below Romney campaigners.

 

Asked if it’s reasonable to think a campaign would do such a thing — push poll itself — one political consultant familiar with phone banking and dirty tricks who asked not to be identified told NRO, “I’ve done it,” he said. “But it’s usually the kind of thing that you do in a close state-senate race, not a stunt you pull under the scrutiny a presidential campaign is subjected to.”

 

He also said that the fact Western Wats has been working with Romney supporters is telling. As Sam Stein of the Huffington Post has noted,

 

Western Wats’ past client list includes several high-profile Romney supporters. The company has worked for Allan Bense, the Florida House Speaker who chairs Romney’s Florida Statewide Steering Committee, and has made calls for Michigan State Representative Gary Newell, who serves on Romney’s Michigan Leadership Team.

 

Western Wats also made phone calls for Rep. Tom Feeney (R., Fla.) — a co-chair of Romney’s Florida Committee — as recently as July 29. Romney’s former deputy campaign manager Jason Roe was Feeney’s chief of staff just prior to working for Romney.

 

Baby, Baby It’s a Small World

Are these connections damning or do they suggest nothing more than a coincidence? Kevin Madden told NRO Sunday: “[Nearly] every Republican research firm uses Western Wats. They are one of the biggest phone research vendors in the country.” As the pro-Romney site mymanmitt.com puts it: Western Wats “conducts 7000 projects a year … At any given moment they are conducting HUNDREDS of projects.” In theory, they could be working for any number of competing clients at cross-purposes at any time.

 

And what about Rudy? Madden points out: “There’s a tie from Western Wats to Tarrance Group [a polling firm working for the Giuliani campaign]. Western Wats is contracted by numerous firms that are working for rival campaigns that also use them to make calls.” Ed Goeas, chief of the Tarrance Group, has flatly denied a connection between the Giuliani campaign and Western Wats, though the Tarrance has employed Western Wats in the past.

 

Fact is, the polling world is incestuous. As proof of this, Madden points to the fact that Brent Seaborn, a founding partner of Target Point, is working for the Giuliani campaign.

 

The Romney defense is plausible, but not everyone is convinced. “Consultants tend to be tribal and work off of referral,” the aforementioned anonymous political consultant advises. “The ones that are whorish tend not to be in business for very long.”

 

There are a number of mitigating factors outlined on mymanmitt.com that suggest that the Romney campaign may be telling the truth. Western Wats has over 1,500 employees across the country — there’s no evidence that Amanda Earnsworth and other employees are donating to Romney at a rate or contribution level higher then the general population, or doing anything unethical or out of the ordinary to help the Romney campaign. And currently, not a single board member or the CEO of the company is Mormon.

 

Also, reports describing the calls note that in addition to the anti-Romney queries, questions were asked about John McCain’s military service. The McCain campaign has denied involvement and has asked the New Hampshire attorney general to investigate the incident.

 

In condemning the calls, Romney blamed McCain-Feingold legislation, a move that some perceived as a sideswipe at his rival candidate. “How is it that we don’t know who’s doing it?,” Romney said in the video statement his campaign sent out. “In that regard, you know, you have to look back at the legislation that is known as McCain-Feingold. The bill leaves an enormous, gaping loophole and says that if you form a 527 or 501©4 you don’t have to disclose who the donors are. They can give an unlimited amount.”

 

According to another source at a rival campaign who wished to remain anonymous, there’s speculation that Romney may have push polled himself because his campaign wanted polling data regarding the negative perception of his Mormon faith for internal use. But since they couldn’t do so without causing controversy, they took steps to make it look like McCain.

 

While that’s a novel theory, it’s a jump. There are still many questions left unanswered. Madden also notes that, in addition to the McCain campaign, the Romney campaign has also called on the New Hampshire attorney general to investigate the matter.

 

Still, Madden did not deny a connection between Target Point and Western Wats. “If you’re calling to tell me that Target Point has used Western Wats as a call firm — not for these [anti-Mormon] calls, but for other ones — I suspect that could be the case,” Madden said. “I think it would be erroneous to use a peripheral connection between vendors to insinuate any impropriety.”

 

The Romney campaign, ultimately, has the power to clarify any misconceptions. If there is a relationship between the two firms, then Alex Gage and Target Point should immediately clarify the extent and nature of the work that it has contracted out to Western Wats to end speculation and exonerate Romney.

 

— Mark Hemingway is an NRO staff reporter.

 

[Texsox]

Do you think they discovered that "I don't know" polls well? I really like that he appears more genuine than the other candidates, but I know in the back of my mind, at times, I'm seeing Arthur Branch, not Fred Thompson.

 

I am also feeling a Mr. Smith Goes to Washington vibe. I believe Thompson is one of the honest candidates with some backbone and integrity.

[Texsox]

Nice article on Romney. More and more I realize this is an industry and the background players stay the same, it's just a different brand of politician they are promoting, like mouthwash or hemorrhoid cream.

 

If they can prove he push polled himself, you can cue Freddy Mercury . . . Another One Bites The Dust . . .

[southsider2k5]

http://www.cnsnews.com/ViewPolitics.asp?Pa...L20071119a.html

 

Giuliani, Thompson, McCain Won't Sign 'No Tax' Pledge

By Monisha Bansal

CNSNews.com Staff Writer

November 19, 2007

 

(CNSNews.com) - Americans for Tax Reform, a conservative taxpayer group, regularly asks Republican politicians to sign a pledge not to raise taxes. Three Republican presidential candidates have not signed the pledge, which one strategist said might hurt them during the primaries.

 

"I worked on Bob Dole's campaign in 1988 and he didn't sign and it killed his campaign in the final week," David Johnson, a Republican strategist and president of Strategic Vision. "That's how the first President Bush was able to turn around and win the New Hampshire primary."

 

New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson and Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) have not signed the pledge.

 

"It carries a lot of weight in New Hampshire and it's something that can be used very effectively against a candidate, especially if it's a tight race as we're seeing in the polling right now," said Johnson.

 

But Giuliani said, "You take one pledge as president of the United States. It's to uphold the Constitution of the United States. The rest of it is a statement of intentions."

 

"The reality is nobody has to worry about whether I'm going to lower taxes, because I did it in a place that was harder to do it than in Washington," said Giuliani on Fox News in October.

 

"All the rest of them have never done it. So they got to take pledges. I have a record. In fact, that's sort of my distinction with most of the rest of the candidates. I actually have results," he added.

 

In April, on CNBC, McCain's spokesman Douglas Holtz-Eakin said the senator "has never voted for increasing taxes in a way that is detrimental to the U.S. economy. He understands that marginal tax rates are important for entrepreneurs and that low capital gains and dividends tax rates are important for savers and investors."

 

"He's pledged to make them permanently low,' said Holtz-Eakin. "And he doesn't need to sign a piece of paper to keep that pledge. He has a strong track record and he's going to make sure America keeps growing."

 

Karen Hanretty, Fred Thompson's spokeswoman, said "Fred Thompson's record of cutting taxes and pushing for reform speaks for itself," according to the newspaper The Hill. "This is the approach he will take as president. He is bound by that principle and does not make a practice of signing pledges."

 

"They are kind of caught in a Catch-22," Johnson said. "They know that this is a way to win the New Hampshire primary, but they don't want to go on record saying they will never raise taxes and then, if they're nominated and elected, have to go back on that pledge and have it used against them like the first President Bush did with his famous 'no new taxes.'"

 

"I think it's going to hurt these candidates in New Hampshire," said Johnson. "New Hampshire is a very anti-tax state."

 

"Voters, traditionally when the economy is bad, go for candidates who promise not to raise taxes and who promise to lower taxes," he said, noting that by refusing to sign the pledge, the three candidates are creating a situation that could play well for former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee.

 

But John Kartch, communications director for Americans for Tax Reform, said he remained hopeful about the candidates' commitment to not raise taxes.

 

"We remain hopeful that they will sign," he told Cybercast News Service. "Romney and Huckabee have signed the pledge. McCain has taken and honored his pledge as a member of the Senate and as a candidate for president in 2000. Giuliani has made a strong public statement that he would never raise taxes."

[Texsox]

We have to take care of our financial ship. Not tying their hands tells me these candidates will not dismiss a choice in advance without knowing the situation.

[Balta1701]

[EvilMonkey]

http://www.cnsnews.com/ViewPolitics.asp?Pa...L20071119a.html

Good choice to not sign. And since 3 of them didn't sign it, it shouldn't hurt as bad. Are they all really gonna vote for Huckabee?

[NorthSideSox72]

NH Poll...

 

Romney 33%, +8

McCain 18%, +-0

Giuliani 16%, -8

Paul 8%, +4

Huckabee 5%, ?

Thompson 4%, -13

Tancredo 1%, +-0

 

Wow. Thompson crashes out big time... Ron Paul in 4th and now approaching double digits... Romney building on his lead... Giuliani continues his freefall.