GOP Primaries/Candidates thread

[southsider2k5]

That is one thing that really is bothering me is that none of the GOP candidates have a plan to even balance the budget let alone reduce the debt. How much debt do we have to be in before we get a sense of urgency on this issue?

 

I think if the Feds position on the interest rates is a long term one, you will see a less willingness to buy american dollar backed debt, because it won't be paying off enough to make the fall in the dollar worth it. The debt problem could hit its own law of unitended consequences.

[vandy125]

Sounds to me like Ron Paul might be your guy.

 

Maybe I have not seen enough of the other candidates, but he looks like the one who really is for a smaller federal government.

[sox4lifeinPA]

Mitt was on NPR last night...he was very well spoken (and schooled Robert Siegel). I think he might be getting my vote.

[southsider2k5]

Maybe I have not seen enough of the other candidates, but he looks like the one who really is for a smaller federal government.

 

I'll be honest when I say Paul is the ONLY candidate I believe who actually has a chance of reducing the size of our runaway bureaucracy.

[southsider2k5]

Romney is about to make a major speech on religion.

 

http://www.cnn.com/2007/POLITICS/12/04/rom...eech/index.html

 

MANCHESTER, New Hampshire (CNN) -- Mitt Romney is brushing off comparisons between his upcoming speech about religion and John F. Kennedy's famous 1960 address, but the White House hopeful says the subject is an important one in the campaign.

 

GOP presidential contender Mitt Romney will speak Thursday about the role of religion in society.

 

"I've long anticipated that at some point, I'd be talking about the role of religion in a free society," the former Massachusetts governor told reporters Monday. "That's what I'll be talking about."

 

The GOP candidate's campaign announced on Sunday his plans for a speech on "Faith in America." Romney will give the address Thursday at former President George H. W. Bush's presidential library in College Station, Texas.

 

The topic evokes John F. Kennedy's speech to Southern Baptist leaders in Houston in 1960, when the man who would become the first Roman Catholic president told ministers, "I do not speak for my church on public matters, and the church does not speak for me."

 

The purpose of Thursday's speech is not to ease concerns about his Mormon faith, Romney said.

 

"I'm not going to be giving a JFK speech," Romney said. "He gave the definitive speech on discrimination relating to a political campaign, and what he said makes sense to me. I'm going to be talking about the role of religion and faith in America, in a free society." Watch what's behind Romney's decision to address his faith »

 

However, he added, "I certainly will answer some questions related to how my own faith will inform my presidency."

 

The Constitution bars any religious test for public office. But evangelical Christians are a major GOP voting bloc and make up a significant portion of Republican primary voters in South Carolina, a key early contest in 2008.

 

Romney has tried to allay their concerns about his Mormonism by emphasizing shared values such as opposition to abortion and same-sex marriage.

 

In October, he won the endorsement of the chancellor of South Carolina's fundamentalist Bob Jones University, Bob Jones III, who once described Mormonism and Catholicism as "cults which call themselves Christian."

 

The Salt Lake City-based Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints claims about 12 million adherents worldwide, roughly half of them in the United States.

 

Followers consider themselves Christians, but elements of Mormon theology -- that the Garden of Eden was located in what is now Missouri, that a lost tribe of Israelites settled in North America and that a resurrected Jesus Christ visited them -- differ sharply from orthodox Christian belief.

 

The church's early belief in polygamy fueled its persecution as followers migrated across the United States, but church leaders renounced the practice in 1890.

 

A CNN-Opinion Research Corp. poll in October found that 50 percent of Americans consider Mormons to be Christians, with 41 percent disagreeing. But only 19 percent said they would be less likely to vote for a Mormon for president, and 77 percent said the issue would make no difference.

 

Republican pollster Whit Ayers called the upcoming address "a 'better safe than sorry' strategy" for Romney in the face of polls showing Americans have little knowledge of Mormon beliefs.

 

"I think what Gov. Romney needs to do is say that he's a member of a large, mainline Christian denomination," Ayers said. "If he does that, that will provide a measure of reassurance to some people are suspicious about Mormonism."

 

 

Sunday's announcement about the Texas speech had been anticipated for some time. Romney said religion "is an important topic to talk about as you think about what our nation needs to consider to maintain its culture."

 

"It just seemed earlier there wasn't a lot of focus on this issue, and it wouldn't have the kind of attention it deserves," he said. "The first caucus and primary is coming up in January, so I wanted to go before then, and this seemed like as good a time as any."

[NorthSideSox72]

Romney is about to make a major speech on religion.

 

http://www.cnn.com/2007/POLITICS/12/04/rom...eech/index.html

This should be interesting. I think his religion will play a major role in his possibility of being elected - more so than other candidates who may be various sects of Christian or Jewish. A lot of people don't see Mormonism as a real religion at all, and the evangelicals and christian coalition types certainly don't see it as a type of Christianity.

 

Here is another wildcard for him. I think its possible that a lot of people still don't know he is a Mormon, and there is yet another batch of folks who don't know anything about it in any case. I think he's decided that his popularity is at a peak, and these things are going to come up anyway, so best to get it out there now. I will be very curious to see how its reacted to, and how his numbers start to look once its more well known what his beliefs are, and once more people start finding out a little more about the Latter Day Saints.

 

[sox4lifeinPA]

This should be interesting. I think his religion will play a major role in his possibility of being elected - more so than other candidates who may be various sects of Christian or Jewish. A lot of people don't see Mormonism as a real religion at all, and the evangelicals and christian coalition types certainly don't see it as a type of Christianity.

 

Here is another wildcard for him. I think its possible that a lot of people still don't know he is a Mormon, and there is yet another batch of folks who don't know anything about it in any case. I think he's decided that his popularity is at a peak, and these things are going to come up anyway, so best to get it out there now. I will be very curious to see how its reacted to, and how his numbers start to look once its more well known what his beliefs are, and once more people start finding out a little more about the Latter Day Saints.

 

 

My new voting policy: Vote for the person that annoys me the least when I hear them talk on the radio because I will forced to listen to THAT VOICE for at minimum the next 4 years.

[NorthSideSox72]

My new voting policy: Vote for the person that annoys me the least when I hear them talk on the radio because I will forced to listen to THAT VOICE for at minimum the next 4 years.

That's some strategery right there. Strategery is what they call it, when... they do that.

 

[sox4lifeinPA]

That's some strategery right there. Strategery is what they call it, when... they do that.

 

 

thank God Soxtalk doesn't have audio.....

[Balta1701]

Well, it actually took longer to be put out there than I thought it would be, but perhaps the hardest potential attack on the Huckabees is finally being pushed; the case of Wayne Dumond.

And then there's the story of Wayne DuMond.

 

In 1985, DuMond was convicted of the rape of a 17-year-old girl with a connection to then-Arkansas Governor Bill Clinton: She was the governor's distant cousin and the daughter of a major campaign contributor.

 

As Clinton rose to national prominence, the case came to the attention of his critics. Journalists and talk show hosts questioned the victim's story and suggested that DuMond had been railroaded by the former governor. Steve Dunleavy, a New York Post columnist, took up the case as a cause, calling DuMond’s conviction "a travesty of justice."

 

The story also came with a tabloid-ready twist: DuMond said that while awaiting trial, masked men broke into his house and castrated him. Though there were doubts about the story, it engendered sympathy for DuMond among Clinton foes.

 

DuMond's sentence had been set at life in prison, plus 20 years. In 1992, Clinton's successor in the Arkansas governor's mansion, Jim Guy Tucker, reduced that sentence to 39 years, making DuMond eligible for parole.

 

When Huckabee became governor in 1996, he expressed doubts about DuMond's guilt and said he was considering commuting his sentence to time served. After the victim and her supporters protested, Huckabee decided against commutation. But in 1997, according to the Kansas City Star, Huckabee wrote a letter to DuMond saying "my desire is that you be released from prison." Less than a year later, DuMond was granted parole.

 

Huckabee's office denied that the governor played a role in the parole board's decision, but there was evidence (exhaustively detailed here) to contradict that claim.

 

Charles Chastain, a Professor of Criminal Justice at the University of Arkansas at Little Rock, who was on the parole board at the time, told CBSNews.com the governor met with the board to argue on DuMond’s behalf.

 

"He thought DuMond had gotten a raw deal," said Chastain, who calls himself neutral towards Huckabee. "He said he'd been born on the wrong side of the tracks and hadn't been treated all that fairly."

 

"I don't think the governor quite understood about parole proceedings," added Chastain. "I thought of the parole board as a quasi-judicial body that wouldn't be lobbied or otherwise interfered with by anyone outside of it, so I was a little bit surprised by it."

 

After the meeting, Chastain said, a number of the board members "switched their vote" from the previous year, and DuMond was paroled.

 

Joe Carter, director of research for the Huckabee campaign, insists that Huckabee did not seek to pressure the parole board. "If it was such an important issue for him, he would have commuted his sentence," Carter told CBSNews.com.

 

DuMond's release was delayed because a number of states did not want to take him in, but he left prison in 1999 and ended up in Missouri. Not long after he arrived, he was arrested again - this time for sexually assaulting and murdering a woman named Carol Sue Shields. DuMond was also the leading suspect in the rape and murder of another woman. He was convicted of murdering Shields and died in prison in 2005.

 

In a statement, Huckabee Press Secretary Alice Stewart told CBSNews.com that Huckabee “had no influence regarding the parole board's decision to release Wayne Dumond.”

 

“Governor Huckabee had no authority to grant parole to Wayne Dumond or anyone else -- governors don’t have that authority in the parole process,” she said.

 

According to Arkansas Times editor Max Brantley, who has tangled repeatedly with Huckabee over the years, the governor's influence clearly played a role in DuMond's release from prison.

 

"In the end, he took a series of actions that can be interpreted only one way: That he was an advocate for Wayne DuMond," said Brantley. "And it was bad judgment. And he's never been willing to take responsibility for it."

 

"It's an unfortunate incident," said Carter, Huckabee's director of research, of the DuMond case. "He is devastated by what happened, but he felt he did no wrongful action."

[Balta1701]

More on Dumond, including documents showing Huckabee was warned about Dumond before speaking to the parole board on his behalf, are avail. at the admittedly liberal Huffington Post.

As governor of Arkansas, Mike Huckabee aggressively pushed for the early release of a convicted rapist despite being warned by numerous women that the convict had sexually assaulted them or their family members, and would likely strike again. The convict went on to rape and murder at least one other woman.

 

Confidential Arkansas state government records, including letters from these women, obtained by the Huffington Post and revealed publicly for the first time, directly contradict the version of events now being put forward by Huckabee.

 

While on the campaign trail, Huckabee has claimed that he supported the 1999 release of Wayne Dumond because, at the time, he had no good reason to believe that the man represented a further threat to the public. Thanks to Huckabee's intervention, conducted in concert with a right-wing tabloid campaign on Dumond's behalf, Dumond was let out of prison 25 years before his sentence would have ended.

 

"There's nothing any of us could ever do," Huckabee said Sunday on CNN when asked to reflect on the horrific outcome caused by the prisoner's release. "None of us could've predicted what [Dumond] could've done when he got out."

 

But the confidential files obtained by the Huffington Post show that Huckabee was provided letters from several women who had been sexually assaulted by Dumond and who indeed predicted that he would rape again - and perhaps murder - if released.

 

In a letter that has never before been made public, one of Dumond's victims warned: "I feel that if he is released it is only a matter of time before he commits another crime and fear that he will not leave a witness to testify against him the next time." Before Dumond was granted parole at Huckabee's urging, records show that Huckabee's office received a copy of this letter from Arkansas' parole board.

 

The woman later wrote directly to Huckabee about having been raped by Dumond. In a letter obtained by the Huffington Post, she said that Dumond had raped her while holding a butcher knife to her throat, and while her then-3-year-old daughter lay in bed next to her. Also included in the files sent to Huckabee's office was a police report in which Dumond confessed to the rape. Dumond was not charged in that particular case because he later refused to sign the confession and because the woman was afraid to press charges.

 

Huckabee kept these and other documents secret because they were politically damaging, according to a former aide who worked for him in Arkansas. The aide has made the records available to the Huffington Post, deeply troubled by Huckabee's repeated claims that he had no reason to believe Dumond would commit other violent crimes upon his release from prison. The aide also believes that Huckabee, for political reasons, has deliberately attempted to cover up his knowledge of Dumond's other sexual assaults.

 

"There were no letters sent to the governor's office from any rape victims," Huckabee campaign spokesperson Alice Stewart said on Tuesday when contacted by the Huffington Post.

 

Subsequently, however, the campaign provided a former senior aide of Huckabee's who did remember reading at least one of the letters.

[southsider2k5]

Wayne Dumond, Willie Horton

 

Willie Horton, Wayne Dumond

[vandy125]

I'll be honest when I say Paul is the ONLY candidate I believe who actually has a chance of reducing the size of our runaway bureaucracy.

 

Which is exactly why I registered as a republican so that I can go to the Iowa caucus. I always stayed away from that before.

[NorthSideSox72]

The first December polls are out. Taking a look at them (excluding Zogby), here are some details. Huckabee is really looking strong now in IA and SC, with Romney on his tail. Giuliani just can't get traction anywhere. NH loves its moderates (McCain doing well, like Richardson for the Dems), and has no patience for the religious conservatives (Huckabee, Thompson). Details...

 

Iowa, Strategic Vision poll...

 

Huckabee: 27%

Romney: 24%

Giuliani: 13%

Thompson: 11%

McCain: 6%

Paul: 5%

 

New Hampshire, ABC/WaPo...

 

Romney: 37%

McCain: 20%

Giuliani: 16%

Huckabee: 9%

Paul: 8%

Thompson: 4%

 

South Carolina, Rasmussen...

 

Huckabee: 25%

Romney: 18%

Thompson: 18%

Giuliani: 12%

McCain: 9%

Paul: 4%

 

[NorthSideSox72]

So, Romney gave his much-anticipated speech today about his faith. Everyone was curious how he would address his Mormonism. So how did he do it?

 

He didn't.

 

He gave a flowery speech, well written and delivered, that sounded identical to a speech that any other person might give who considers themselves to be religious conservatives. He could have been Fred Thompson, or Mike Huckabee, or Tom Tancredo. At least, that's what the analysis is coming from various sources I have seen. I have not seen the whole speech - only read exerpts and reviews. I hope to actually see a transcript at some point.

 

He also chose to draw a parallel to another Massachussetts candidate - JFK. Tex would be proud. But I'm not sure that will play well with the religious right.

 

This actually seems like maybe a pretty smart tactic. Just as the public starts realizing he's of a faith that most people know little about, and questions mount about how his beliefs may effect his judgement... he embraces those beliefs in the most generic way possible. He appeals to the religious right with his faith-based speech, but gives only vague platitudes about the LDS and his beliefs, those glossing over the main question. We'll see if it worked.

 

[southsider2k5]

America: With LDS being a relatively small group in the US, with some bad stereotypes that go with it, could you tell us about your faith?

 

Romney: Well why don't you tell me what you want to hear?

 

I guess I shouldn't have expected anything more from the guy that hasn't had a backbone in his history as a pol.

[NorthSideSox72]

America: With LDS being a relatively small group in the US, with some bad stereotypes that go with it, could you tell us about your faith?

 

Romney: Well why don't you tell me what you want to hear?

 

I guess I shouldn't have expected anything more from the guy that hasn't had a backbone in his history as a pol.

I thought it was more like...

 

America: With LDS being a relatively small group in the US, with some bad stereotypes that go with it, could you tell us about your faith?

 

Romney: Faith is good, isn't it?

 

[StrangeSox]

So, Romney gave his much-anticipated speech today about his faith. Everyone was curious how he would address his Mormonism. So how did he do it?

 

He didn't.

 

He gave a flowery speech, well written and delivered, that sounded identical to a speech that any other person might give who considers themselves to be religious conservatives. He could have been Fred Thompson, or Mike Huckabee, or Tom Tancredo. At least, that's what the analysis is coming from various sources I have seen. I have not seen the whole speech - only read exerpts and reviews. I hope to actually see a transcript at some point.

 

He also chose to draw a parallel to another Massachussetts candidate - JFK. Tex would be proud. But I'm not sure that will play well with the religious right.

 

This actually seems like maybe a pretty smart tactic. Just as the public starts realizing he's of a faith that most people know little about, and questions mount about how his beliefs may effect his judgement... he embraces those beliefs in the most generic way possible. He appeals to the religious right with his faith-based speech, but gives only vague platitudes about the LDS and his beliefs, those glossing over the main question. We'll see if it worked.

 

He tried to make the discussion "Christians vs. Seculars" instead of making any comments on his Mormonism. I think his comments were way off-base and contradictory to the princinples of our government and Constitution. (Specifically, "freedom requires religion")

[NorthSideSox72]

He tried to make the discussion "Christians vs. Seculars" instead of making any comments on his Mormonism. I think his comments were way off-base and contradictory to the princinples of our government and Constitution. (Specifically, "freedom requires religion")

Yeah I have to say, the "freedom requires religion" quote bothered me too. But it was a directed play towards the Christian Coalition folks - the ones deluded into thinking this is a "Christian Nation".

 

[Balta1701]

Link

[Chet Lemon]

predictably, more stuff thrown at Huckabee from his past:

 

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/politic...hi_tab01_layout

[Balta1701]

predictably, more stuff thrown at Huckabee from his past:

 

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/politic...hi_tab01_layout

Well, one does have to think that if the press literally has only a month between a guy appearing as one of the "top tier" candidates and the nomination being decided, one of two things is going to happen. There's either going to be a surge in oppo research hitting the wires about him right before the nomination as people look for things to derail him, or there's going to be a bunch of stuff hanging around that will make easy attack ads from 527 groups when the general election hits. Honestly, if the situation were reversed and I was a Rep voter, even one leaning to Huckabee, I'd rather see this stuff coming out before the caucuses rather than after.

[Rex Kickass]

There's not a lot of compassion in his conservatism, at least back then.

 

Of course, asked a couple weeks ago about gay marriage and his opposition to it, he did basically insinuate that American society wouldn't be able to survive gay marriage.

[NorthSideSox72]

To say there has been a large swing in the polls lately would be an understatement. Check out the latest...

 

Iowa: Newsweek (12/5-6)...

 

Hucakbee: 39%

Romney: 17%

Thompson: 10%

Giuliani: 9%

Paul: 8%

McCain: 6%

 

Iowa: Mason-Dixon (12/3-6)...

 

Huckabee: 32%

Romney: 20%

Thompson: 11%

McCain: 7%

Giuliani: 5%

Paul: 2%

 

You read right. Huckabee with 22 and 12 point leads in those polls, and Giuliani at only 9 and 5%. Now for NH...

 

NH: Mason-Dixon (12/3-6)...

 

Romney: 25%

Giuliani: 17%

McCain: 16%

Huckabee: 11%

Thompson: 6%

Paul: 5%

 

So NH isn't as quick to swing as IA, and the religious conservatives still don't play as well there.

 

[mr_genius]

anyone else see Giuliani on meet the press? I thought he did poorly.