GOP Primaries/Candidates thread

[NorthSideSox72]

Surprisingly it basically is.

http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/200...tagnant_ne.html

That is basically two persons annual median incomes, which would be what a typical American household would have.

That is not good. People can't get their net worth above their annual income? Even with the big housing value run-up we've had? Yikes. This nation has gotten really, really bad and saving and investing.

 

[Texsox]

That is not good. People can't get their net worth above their annual income? Even with the big housing value run-up we've had? Yikes. This nation has gotten really, really bad and saving and investing.

 

Debt is our worst enemy, more serious than terrorists. But I'll shut up, I've talked about this to death.

[southsider2k5]

That is not good. People can't get their net worth above their annual income? Even with the big housing value run-up we've had? Yikes. This nation has gotten really, really bad and saving and investing.

 

Its not surprising at all. People make more money, they go buy a more expensive house. Their house goes up in value, they take out a home equity loan and buy a more expensive care. Everytime their worth could go up, the typical American borrows against it.

[BigSqwert]

Huckabee suggests evangelical Christians should stick to the issues, and not worry about electability.

 

"When you cease becoming clear about who you are, and what you're about, you really just become another Republican interest group, and you have no core, you have no center, and therefore you have no influence."

 

Full Article

[southsider2k5]

Full Article

 

Translation: I have no chance of winning.

[BigSqwert]

Translation: I have no chance of winning.

Not so fast...

New Poll Shows Mike Huckabee Gains Momentum in Iowa

Former AR Governor Places First Among "Committed" Voters; Third Place Overall

October 07, 2007

Little Rock, AR - Former AR Governor and Presidential Candidate Mike Huckabee today "welcomed news" that a new Des Moines Register poll ranks him No. 1 among registered Republican voters in Iowa who have "made up their mind" in the 2008 presidential election - and No. 3 among GOP candidates overall.

 

"This victory is really good news," said Huckabee about the October 7 poll of likely caucus participants. "This poll confirms that the field is wide open - and that my campaign continues to surge among likely voters."

 

Huckabee scored first among the voters (about one-fourth of those polled) who have made up their mind, with 19 percent, and third place among all potential Republican voters, with 12 percent. The former Arkansas governor also scored very well among religious conservatives, coming in third with 18 percent.

 

Huckabee has surged since his strong showing in the Aug. 11 Iowa Republican Party Straw Poll. Support for the other GOP presidential contenders who were included in a Des Moines Register poll taken last May has essentially flat-lined or eroded.

 

"Voters in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina - and all across America - are looking for a strong conservative leader with a consistent message, results-driven record and positive vision for America's future," said Huckabee. "This new poll reflects what we're feeling on the ground: that my campaign is on an upward trajectory in Iowa and other key battleground states."

 

Source

[southsider2k5]

http://blog.washingtonpost.com/the-trail/2...mail/components

 

CEDAR RAPIDS, Iowa--The latest Iowa Poll, published Sunday in the Des Moines Register, has drawn attention largely because of what it shows about the Democratic race: Hillary Clinton is now leading in the state. What has drawn less attention, but is equally interesting, are the gyrations underway in the Republican race.

 

Mitt Romney, who has spent the most and campaigned the hardest in the state, has maintained the double-digit lead he established last spring. But the order of finish among the rest of the field has undergone a sizeable shakeup -- and even Romney should be nervous about what the poll reveals.

 

Back in May, when the Register last surveyed the state, Rudy Giuliani and John McCain were essentially tied for second in Iowa, with McCain at 18 percent and Giuliani at 17 percent. Today, second places goes to Fred Thompson, at 18 percent. Mike Huckabee is now third at 12 percent in a virtual tie with Giuliani, who has dropped to 11 percent.

 

McCain, who may be showing some signs of revival in New Hampshire, continues to languish in Iowa. He has fallen all the way to fifth in Iowa, at just 7 percent, which puts him only a few points ahead of Tom Tancredo and Ron Paul.

 

McCain's descent in Iowa is closely tied to his position on immigration, which was just beginning to hit his candidacy when the last Iowa Poll was conducted. In the survey released Sunday, 58 percent of likely Republican caucus attendees said his advocacy for comprehensive immigration reform was a major factor in their decision not to support him. More than half of Republican caucus-goers already say they have ruled out voting for him.

 

Giuliani's weakness is twofold. First is his support for abortion rights. Fifty-five percent of those surveyed said his position on abortion was a major factor in their decision not to support him. But Giuliani also has stopped campaigning in Iowa -- or at least has not been here since early August.

 

His campaign has said he will compete energetically in the caucuses, but he shows little evidence of it right now -- and Iowans take those slights personally. At this point nearly half of those surveyed said they have ruled out supporting him.

 

Romney and Thompson are the apparent beneficiaries of the slippage by Giuliani and McCain. Thompson has made himself a force here by virtue of his generally conservative image and by showing up, even though he has played to mediocre reviews in the national press.

 

Whether he benefited by being in the state at the time the poll was taken isn't clear, although there were some signs that he is still far from making the sale with Iowa Republicans. That was clear from the responses to the question of which candidate voters saw as making the best president.

 

Neither Thompson nor Romney did as well on that question as their overall poll numbers would have suggested. While Romney led among the Republicans in terms of overall support, at 29 percent, just 20 percent said they thought he would make the best president. Half of Republicans surveyed said they are concerned about his flip-flops on abortion.

 

Thompson, who was at 18 percent on the ballot test, was cited by just 12 percent as making the best president. Also more than half said the fact that a candidate has had serious health problems would make them less likely to back them in the caucuses. Thompson revealed in the spring that he suffers from lymphoma, although he said it is in remission.

 

All that indicates that Republicans have some potential reservations about him that could affect his standing between now and January, when the caucuses will kick off the nomination battle. Working in his favor is that he appears more broadly acceptable to the GOP electorate in Iowa than any other candidate. Just 30 percent said they have ruled him out.

 

Huckabee, who lacks both the resources and the celebrity status of the big four candidates in the GOP field, now appears poised to embarrass several of them in January. He was virtually tied with Giuliani on the question of who would truly be the best president among the Republican candidates. His status as a former governor is appealing in the abstract to GOP voters.

 

His second-place finish in the Iowa straw poll has not given him the fundraising boost that he might have hoped, but he continues to perform well in debates with his rivals and his conservative positions and sunny disposition have begun to impress Iowans of both parties.

 

When I sat down on Friday evening with a group of Linn County Democratic Party officials and activists to talk about politics, the last thing I asked them was to give me their impressions of the Republican field. I wanted to know which candidate they thought might prove toughest in a general election race.

 

Surprisingly they named Huckabee. McCain, they said, was past his time. Romney's flip-flops, they suggested, would make him an easy target in a general election. They also said they found him too slick and plastic.

 

One said Giuliani would appeal to Democrats and worried about that. But others argued that Giuliani was too much identified with New York and the East Coast to play well in the Midwest, which once again is likely to be the critical battleground in 2008. Plus they thought he would split the Republican Party.

 

Huckabee drew only positive comments. One in the group said she has a friend in Arkansas who told her people there admire what he did for the state as governor. Another said he seemed like "a genuinely nice guy." Another described him as "grounded."

 

Huckabee remains the intriguing dark horse in the Republican race -- a candidate whose appeal in Iowa could further shake up a contest in which none of the candidates is yet able to take control.

 

--Dan Balz

 

Watch Dan Balz's conversation with campaign staffers on the ground in Iowa:

[BigSqwert]

I may have adopted a winner. It's the magical BigSqwert touch. (That actually sounds nasty)

[southsider2k5]

It will be interesting to see if the national race is effected by an Iowa upset. The strawpoll was supposed to change things, and it hasn't really done much.

[Texsox]

 

Dear JM, Tonight John McCain will once again take the stage with his Republican opponents and face off on the issues important to America. If the past debates are any indication, this debate will be another decisive night in which John McCain will stand head and shoulders above his opponents and prove that he is the only one who is ready to lead our country on day one.

 

Please tune in for this important debate at 4PM EST on CNBC. The debate will also be re-broadcast, in its entirety, at 9PM EST on MSNBC.

 

This debate, taking place in Dearborn, Michigan, will be the first debate focusing on economic issues. John McCain is leading the charge to stop out-of-control government spending, keep taxes low and simplify the overly complex and burdensome tax code. As President, he will veto every wasteful spending bill that comes to his desk.

 

This morning, John McCain addressed the Detroit Economic Club talking about these important issues and outlining his vision for a strong and prosperous US Economy. Read his remarks here.

 

America needs experienced leadership to guide the U.S. economy to greater prosperity and we need someone that can stand up against Hillary Clinton and the Democrats in the general election. That man is John McCain.

 

 

[BigSqwert]

This is pretty neat:

 

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21116732/

[sox4lifeinPA]

This is pretty neat:

 

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21116732/

 

especially:

 

 

 

a definite plus? what if you're pro-vagina?

[BigSqwert]

From today's debate (Copied text from MSNBC.com):

 

Eight of the candidates support the continuing U.S. military presence in Iraq, but Rep. Ron Paul of Texas drew a loud round of applause when he loudly dissented.

[mr_genius]

lol

 

Chris Mattews still gets to moderate debates. the guy is such a hack

 

but I did like his appearance on 'The Daily Show'

Edited October 10, 2007 by mr_genius

[Balta1701]

This could be a real worry for the GOP.

Paul and Tancredo said they would not necessarily support the GOP nominee. That is interesting. Does this feeling persist within the Republican Party? Is that bad news for Giuliani? Maybe. Maybe not. Brownback, the "values candidate" said no matter what he would support the nominee -- however grudgingly.

If you could peel off 5% of the minutemen-type-voters with a Tancredo ticket, or a couple percent of actual libertarians with a Paul ticket, that's the sort of thing that could Nader-ize the eventual Republican nominee in the General.

[southsider2k5]

This could be a real worry for the GOP.

 

If you could peel off 5% of the minutemen-type-voters with a Tancredo ticket, or a couple percent of actual libertarians with a Paul ticket, that's the sort of thing that could Nader-ize the eventual Republican nominee in the General.

In the category of "just sayin'" Ron Paul also fits the Unity Party basic platform of small government, balanced budget and ending Iraq.

[NorthSideSox72]

In the category of "just sayin'" Ron Paul also fits the Unity Party basic platform of small government, balanced budget and ending Iraq.

If Paul went independent or Unity in '08 and got even 5% of the vote nationally, that would pretty much destroy any GOP hopes of getting the Presidency in '08.

 

[mr_genius]

If Paul went independent or Unity in '08 and got even 5% of the vote nationally, that would pretty much destroy any GOP hopes of getting the Presidency in '08.

 

Libertarians run every presidential election

[NorthSideSox72]

Libertarians run every presidential election

None with Paul's profile, and none who can get even 1% of the electorate. Paul, with the millions he has rasied, could get a lot more than that.

 

[mr_genius]

None with Paul's profile, and none who can get even 1% of the electorate. Paul, with the millions he has rasied, could get a lot more than that.

 

Paul ran as a libertarian before, in 1988 I believe. But I guess he could run as an independent and pull a Ross Perot on the GOP.

[southsider2k5]

Paul ran as a libertarian before, in 1988 I believe. But I guess he could run as an independent and pull a Ross Perot on the GOP.

 

His following has had rave reviews about their level of commitment, dedication, and hardwork. They are ravenous addicts trying to get this guy elected. He could get 5-10% in a national election if he had a decent amount of national media exposure.

[southsider2k5]

Mike Huckabee interview...

 

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21252944/site/newsweek/

 

The Gospel According to Mike Huckabee

The former Arkansas governor struggles to raise money, lags behind the GOP presidential front runners in the polls and has been maligned by Bush’s former counsel. Why he keeps on keepin’ on.

 

Charles Dharapak / AP

Former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee applies a simple math to his candidacy: 'When A and B start fighting, C often wins. And so, I like being C.'

View related photos

 

 

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EDITOR'S CHOICE

Ansen on ‘Lars and the Real Girl’

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Al Gore's Nobel Patrol

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Capital Sources: Mike Huckabee, Unplugged

 

 

 

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A Web exclusive interview

By Newsweek’s Washington Bureau

Newsweek

Updated: 1:16 p.m. CT Oct 11, 2007

Oct. 11, 2007 - Presidential hopeful Mike Huckabee seems well-suited to win a core Republican constituency: conservative Christians and other “values” voters. The Arkansas preacher and former governor is pro-life and opposes same-sex marriage. He’s also articulate and amiable, and he plays a mean bass guitar. So why doesn’t he get more backing from hard-core conservatives? Even as his poll numbers inch up—he’s at 12 percent in Iowa, and has 7 percent support nationwide in a recent Gallup poll, up from 4 percent in August—he hasn’t attracted significant financing. He raised only $1 million in the last quarter, compared to $11 million for the front runner, Rudy Giuliani. Recently, Huckabee met with a group of correspondents and editors in NEWSWEEK’s Washington bureau to make his case. Excerpts:

 

Story continues below ↓

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NEWSWEEK: Do you think if you can do well in Iowa, you’ll get a big bounce that will take you through?

Mike Huckabee: Yeah, what we have to do is the whole slingshot effect that people talk about. And I know there are a lot of questions as to whether or not it will happen this time, because of the packed and front-loaded primary [schedule]. But obviously for me it needs to happen, and I still think it will, because, frankly, now more than ever, the entire election process can literally turn in a 24-hour news cycle.

 

Why don’t you seem to be doing better with the Christian conservative crowd? They’re out there saying they are desperate for a candidate; they don’t like Giuliani or other people. You seem to fit in most ways what their ideal candidate might look like. And yet when we raise your name with them, they say, “Well, he can’t win.”

Well, you keep telling them that and that will help a lot. [Laughs.] It’s beginning to change: In Iowa I’m tied with [Fred] Thompson; I’m several points ahead of [John] McCain. People are beginning to realize that with a very limited level of resources, we’re in the same hunt as these guys ... Sometimes people will pose the question to me: is it disappointing about the money you’ve raised? And I say, “No, from my perspective, I’m amazed at how far we’ve gotten. When I look at how much money some of these guys have spent, if I were them, I’d have to be on a couch getting some serious counseling, because it would be very depressing to [have spent] tens of millions of dollars …” In some cases they’ve written checks out of their own accounts for a bunch of dough, and they’re barely polling ahead of a guy who has been tagged as "he’s not raising much money."

 

You’re making that argument to the leadership and the Christian conservative community, and what are they saying?

Some of the people in leadership positions among the social conservatives have become more process-focused than they are principle-focused, and that’s unfortunate because they will marginalize themselves out of any relevance if they continue in that vein.

 

There is much more at the link...

[southsider2k5]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/conte...mail/components

 

The Disciples of Ron Paul, Spreading the Word in N.H.

 

By Jose Antonio Vargas

Washington Post Staff Writer

Monday, October 15, 2007; Page C01

 

STRAFFORD, N.H. -- There's no mistaking which house on Lake Shore Drive, about 45 minutes northeast of Manchester, is the one full of Paulites -- the intensely loyal, almost fanatical supporters of Rep. Ron Paul. Signs are everywhere. On the back window of a brand new black Toyota, on the bumper of a green Geo, on a white Volvo station wagon that sits beside a beat-up lime green Honda. "Ron Paul 2008."

 

"We can run the whole New Hampshire campaign right here," says Jim Forsythe, 39, a former Air Force pilot who's on his driveway in jeans, T-shirt and white socks. "We're the hard-core supporters."

 

Like Paul himself, the Paulites are against the war in Iraq, against the growing federal bureaucracy, against the Department of Homeland Security, the Department of Education, the income tax, against, as Forsythe says, "politics as we've known it."

 

Inside Forsythe's kitchen, snacking on spinach dip, there's Kelly Halldorson, 34, a mother of three whose first presidential vote went to Bill Clinton. And Jane Aitken, 58, a retired art teacher who voted for President Bush in 2000 and 2004. And Will Albenzi, 28, a security guard who's gotten so disillusioned with the Republican and Democratic parties that he belongs to neither.

 

And this being the Granite State, the first primary state famous for its independent "Live Free or Die" attitude, there's Chris Lawless, a 38-year-old software technician who's followed Paul's career since 1988, when the obstetrician-turned-congressman ran for the White House as the Libertarian Party nominee.

 

In a state where Patrick Buchanan upset Bob Dole, the front-runner for the GOP nomination, more than a decade ago, anything is possible, says Andrew Smith, a pollster and director of the University of New Hampshire's Survey Center. As of last November, 26 percent of New Hampshire's electorate were registered Democrats and 30 percent were Republicans. But the biggest block of voters -- 44 percent -- were undeclared. Forty percent to 45 percent of those, Smith says, leaned Democrat and 25 percent to 30 percent Republican.

 

But whatever their backgrounds, the Paulites have catapulted a Republican candidate often described "eccentric," "unknown" and a "long shot" into a spotlight. Paul may be the candidate who has tapped into that independent and frustrated portion of the electorate that in every race is looking for a third way.

 

This month, the 10-term Texas Republican stunned the GOP field by raising a little more than $5 million in the third quarter, 70 percent of it from online donations; Sen. John McCain, once considered the front-runner for the GOP nomination, and former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee, who placed a strong second in the Iowa straw poll in August, raised $6 million and $1 million, respectively. For months now, Paul has been the most popular GOP candidate on the Web, with more supporters on MySpace, Facebook and Meetup than Rudy Giuliani, Fred Thompson or Mitt Romney, who won the Iowa straw poll and leads in the polls here.

 

"Everyone -- the staffers in the other campaigns, the bigwig political observers in the state -- is scratching their heads. They don't know what to make of this Ron Paul phenomenon," pollster Smith says. A University of New Hampshire poll last month showed Paul at 4 percent in the state. The most recent Washington Post-ABC News national poll, also from last month, had him at 3 percent. "The other campaigns aren't worried that he'd win the primary. They just don't know who his supporters are and whose support he's taking away," Smith adds. "His poll numbers aren't high now, but it's only October. And they could see him getting 10 percent of the vote here. If you get 10 percent of the vote in a crowded field, well, you might finish third." But the Paulites are aiming for higher than third place.

 

Last week, they gathered at Forsythe's house to watch the latest GOP presidential debate. Forsythe is the most recent Paulite convert of the bunch. The father of two heard Paul speak in February and remembers how he derided big government and unnecessary wars. Says Forsythe, an aerospace engineer: "That really got me. I fought in Bosnia, Somalia and Iraq, the Iraq before this Iraq war.

 

"I just couldn't believe a politician was talking about these things," he says. "And the thing is, what's going on with Ron Paul, what he's tapping into, speaks to how much the Republican Party has lost its way."

 

* * * Paul isn't using the Internet. The Internet is using him.

 

Yes, the 72-year-old's main headquarters sits in a nondescript office building in Arlington. But his real headquarters may be on the Web, where Paulites have organized, raised money and created buzz, all independent of the official campaign. Take Meetup. There are 994 Ron Paul Meetup groups, more than all the other candidates in both parties combined, and New Hampshire has four, the largest being Forsythe's. The group's name is HQNH, and its 418 members have their own Web site, where Forsythe is the blogmaster. Kate Rick, one of Paul's four staffers in New Hampshire, says HQNH is the candidate's most effective grass-roots operation, handing out literature at gun shows, holding up signs at fairs and canvassing. Rick should know. She helped start HQNH.

 

Some quarters of the blogosphere have obsessed over Paul's intense online following, but things kicked up early this month when Paul announced his third-quarter fundraising figures. Unlike the rest of the presidential field, Paul has consistently improved on his money haul, taking in $640,000 in the first quarter, $2.4 million in the second and $5.1 million two weeks ago. At least two-thirds of the donations, his aides say, came from the Internet. New Hampshire gave the most money per capita, according to the campaign, and the most dollars from one area came from Los Angeles County.

 

"This is the first politician I can truly support, ever," says 53-year-old William D. Johnson, who runs a law firm in downtown L.A. and has donated the maximum, $2,300. A former Democrat, he switched to the GOP because of Paul. "I don't agree with all his positions -- he's not as strong on environmental issues as I'd like -- but because of his record you know that he's a man of utmost integrity."

 

There are shades of Howard Dean here, the way the insurgent Democratic candidate embraced the Web in 2003. And shades of McCain, too. The Arizona senator raised $1 million in two days online in 2000 after beating Bush in the New Hampshire primary.

 

But the most fitting analogy, political analysts here say, might be Patrick Buchanan. Though Paul has not been a general in the culture wars like Buchanan, both men come from the old right of the GOP, pols who champion limited government and fiscal conservatism. Buchanan was barely registering in the New Hampshire polls months before his surprise defeat of Bob Dole in 1996.

 

"As surprising as Ron Paul's popularity is, you see where it's coming from. In an election in which a party doesn't think it will win -- and a lot of Republicans here have a perception that no matter the nominee, they're going to lose next year -- voters have an opportunity to vote with their gut," says the University of New Hampshire's Smith. "But what Ron Paul has to overcome is this image that his supporters are people with tinfoil hats on, folks on the fringes of society. I'm not saying that's the case, though that's the story line that the media has on him."

 

Adds Matt Lewis, a blogger and director of operations at the conservative site Townhall: "He's connecting online, no doubt about it. His antiwar and anti-big government message -- in a time of war and big government -- is carrying through. But how is all this money, all this online popularity going to translate to actual votes come primary day?"

 

With $5.3 million in his coffers, Paul is planning to spend more money in New Hampshire, his aides say. He's visited the state five times, they add, and recently bought his first radio spot. But the campaign is looking past New Hampshire, opening offices in Arizona, Utah and California. In July, the campaign had 10 staff members. Now it has 45.

 

In an interview, Paul says: "To be honest, I didn't think we'd be in this position, getting this kind of attention, having this kind of money. I tell my staff, 'Don't get bloated. Be careful with the money.' I've been saying the same things for a long time. But now more people seem to be listening."

 

* * *

 

Just how far do Paulites go to show their support?

 

Some stamp their money with RON PAUL. Others wear T-shirts that read: "Who is Ron Paul?" There are men who carry little Ron Paul cards and drop them on top of urinals, no joke. "You have to get creative. Sometimes guys need something to read in the bathroom," says Chris Richards, 38, who works in finance. Sometimes a Paulite gets too carried away and walks 38 miles -- from Dover to Concord, a day-long trek -- to campaign for Paul. After watching television pundit George Stephanopoulos tell Paul that he would bet his "every cent" that he won't be president, Halldorson, the 34-year-old mother of three, got so frustrated that she grabbed some campaign literature and handed it out all day. A video is up on YouTube.

 

"Have you ever heard the expression, 'What's wrong is right and what's right is wrong?' " Aitken, the retired art teacher, asks. "We've been doing things that are so wrong for so long that the right thing for some might feel freaky. Sometimes you have to stop and think, 'Okay, this is my conviction.' "

 

 

 

 

[NorthSideSox72]

The Grand Old Party has decided to move its Iowa Caucus date up to January 3rd, in order to keep Iowa more up front among the states. Dems have not indicated if they will do the same.

 

Seems like this contest to be first is kind of counterproductive for everyone involved.

 

[southsider2k5]

The sad thing is that all this stupid race is going to do is end up giving us a national primary day, and competely taking the candidates out of all of the small states and leaving them completely in the large states for the entire election cycle. You pretty much are going to have to live somewhere like California or a large city to have your vote matter. Places like New Hampshire and Iowa are going to be rendered pointless.