GOP Primaries/Candidates thread

[YASNY]

When you cant memorize lines like "We must have good laws. We must do our best to stop bad laws," it doesn't exactly engender confidence.

 

I think that's what I just said.

[Balta1701]

AP

Sounds like a baseball flip-flop. Rudy Giuliani, a lifelong New York Yankees fan, said Tuesday he's pulling for their most hated rivals, the Boston Red Sox, to win the World Series over the Colorado Rockies.

 

"I'm rooting for the Red Sox," the Republican presidential contender said in response to a question, sparking applause at the Boston restaurant where he was picking up a local endorsement.

 

"I'm an American League fan, and I go with the American League team, maybe with the exception of the Mets," he said. "Maybe that would be the one time I wouldn't because I'm loyal to New York."

 

Giuliani's Yankees lost in the first round of the playoffs, then lost their manager when Giuliani's friend, Joe Torre, refused to accept a pay cut and walked away. Giuliani said the Yankees had "a great season."

 

The former New York mayor said his declaration of temporary Red Sox loyalty was "not just because I'm here in Massachusetts."

[Texsox]

he picked one, that's ballsy

[NorthSideSox72]

he picked one, that's ballsy

I'd call it more just plain bad decision-making than ballsy. He should have known that would get out, and NY is not a given for Giuliani in a national election. Not real smart.

 

Besides, I think choosing Colorado would have been smarter for him politically, if he was going to choose at all. It keeps him in NY's good graces, Massachusetts is a lost cause for him anyway (though I suppose NH isn't in the primary), and Colorado is a heavily contested state.

 

[kapkomet]

I'd call it more just plain bad decision-making than ballsy. He should have known that would get out, and NY is not a given for Giuliani in a national election. Not real smart.

 

Besides, I think choosing Colorado would have been smarter for him politically, if he was going to choose at all. It keeps him in NY's good graces, Massachusetts is a lost cause for him anyway (though I suppose NH isn't in the primary), and Colorado is a heavily contested state.

And if this is why the candidate is picked, what a f***ed up country we live in.

 

[EvilMonkey]

Fred's Immigration policy is up on his website. I like it.

 

http://www.fred08.com/virtual/Immigration.aspx

[Texsox]

Fred's Immigration policy is up on his website. I like it.

 

http://www.fred08.com/virtual/Immigration.aspx

 

He has several very nice things in his plan. The one hot potato he avoids is will he deport millions of people and how are businesses to continue to operate during the process. And I'm surprised a REP would recommend more government red tape for business owners. Still. he has several good steps.

[southsider2k5]

Fred's Immigration policy is up on his website. I like it.

 

http://www.fred08.com/virtual/Immigration.aspx

 

I was just going to post this if no one else had done so already. I'll post a quick summary instead.

 

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/200.../23/426727.aspx

 

1) No amnesty; 2) Attrition through enforcement; 3) Increased enforcement of current laws; 4) Reduced incentives from jobs; 5) Bolster border security; 6) Increased prosecution; and 7) Rigorous entry and exit regulation.

 

I actually think the idea of not having illegals round-ups is an interesting one, but he is also not allowing amnesty by still leaving it as a crime to be here illegally, and removing the incentives to do so.

 

One of my favorite things I saw in this was this...

 

http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalradar/20...son-anno-1.html

 

 

"So many people have stood in long lines for years to play by the rules and come here and be great Americans -- and they have been," Thompson said, adding, "It's certainly not fair to them, to grant amnesty for a group of people who have not played by the rules."

 

Bravo. There is monetary incentive to commit all sorts of crimes, but there are also punishments. Good for Thompson for realizing that we should be rewarding the people who do things the right way, not the wrong way.

[Texsox]

I just wish he was against the border fence. From down here where it will literally be in our backyards, the economic damage to the farmers and ranchers ,who depend on access to the river for water to irrigate and for their herds, is going to be huge. Or, as has been proposed, they leave openings for those landowners to access the river. (the funnel). And will be start limiting tourism and student VISAs? People who have never seen the border seem to be much more willing to support the magical wall.

 

Human smugglers will easily defeat the wall to smuggle in those individuals that are the most dangerous to us. Better a solid guest worker program that is tied to jobs and makes verifying individuals fast and absolute. And it should be the government's responsibility to tell businesses if someone is legal to work in the US, and once they do, the business owner should be safe from prosecution.

 

And finally, Mr. Thompson, how about changing the rules to one set for everyone? Yes, some people have waited in line, others do not have to wait, and still others have no line to wait in.

[southsider2k5]

Fred Thompson's social security plan is out as well, and it also interesting. Essentially he wants to unpeg benefit COLAs from wage inflation, to price inflation. The difference would supposedly make a tax hike unnecesary, and while some call it a "cut" in benefits, it still would be a true cost of living adjustment every year.

 

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/TheNote/sto...6350&page=1

 

With Fred Thompson's first debate coming Tuesday, the former Tennessee senator started putting some meat on the bone Friday on the issue of Social Security.

 

His idea: tie the rate of growth of initial Social Security benefit levels to prices rather than to wages.

 

"Benefits plus inflation would probably solve the problem for 75 years," Thompson told Americans for Prosperity, a group which favors lower spending.

 

The non-partisan Concord Coalition called Thompson's informal proposal, which he first floated to the Des Moines Register earlier this week, "a serious idea."

 

In fact, if Thompson were to apply his idea to all Social Security beneficiaries, "it would slow the growth of benefits more than needed to put the program on a sustainable path over the future," according to Concord Coalition senior policy analyst Josh Gordon.

[NorthSideSox72]

Fred Thompson's social security plan is out as well, and it also interesting. Essentially he wants to unpeg benefit COLAs from wage inflation, to price inflation. The difference would supposedly make a tax hike unnecesary, and while some call it a "cut" in benefits, it still would be a true cost of living adjustment every year.

 

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/TheNote/sto...6350&page=1

Well that certainly sounds like a fabulous idea, if his math is right that the spread would cover the short. I'll be waiting to see (after some folks like Concord actually crunch the numbers) if its the real deal. If it can do it, than no question in my mind this is the best idea yet suggested.

 

[Balta1701]

Well that certainly sounds like a fabulous idea, if his math is right that the spread would cover the short. I'll be waiting to see (after some folks like Concord actually crunch the numbers) if its the real deal. If it can do it, than no question in my mind this is the best idea yet suggested.

The social security shortfall is so tiny and so far out that virtually any change that doesn't cost the system money (i.e. private accounts) fixes the problem on the infinite horizon. Raising the cap on what income level counts towards SSI taxes does the same thing, as does having a slightly higher growth rate than the conservative estimate predicted by the Social Security trustees.

[NorthSideSox72]

The social security shortfall is so tiny and so far out that virtually any change that doesn't cost the system money (i.e. private accounts) fixes the problem on the infinite horizon. Raising the cap on what income level counts towards SSI taxes does the same thing, as does having a slightly higher growth rate than the conservative estimate predicted by the Social Security trustees.

And I'd be open to discussion on the cap, but I sure as heck wouldn't want to see any sort of friendly re-estimation relied upon.

 

[southsider2k5]

The social security shortfall is so tiny and so far out that virtually any change that doesn't cost the system money (i.e. private accounts) fixes the problem on the infinite horizon. Raising the cap on what income level counts towards SSI taxes does the same thing, as does having a slightly higher growth rate than the conservative estimate predicted by the Social Security trustees.

 

"So tiny"? Alan Greenspan has been quoted multiple times about the scope of the SSI shortfall. I specifically remember him mentioning the number $10 trillion of shortfall.

 

Actually pulling up his testimony it is $10.4 trillion (estimated of course)

 

I'd hardly call that "tiny". And no offense, but I am going to listen to Alan Greenspan over pretty much anyone else alive when it comes to concerns of the economy. The link is his March05 testimony to the US Senate.

 

http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/te.../2005/20050315/

[southsider2k5]

New Hampshire polls...

 

http://nh2008.blogspot.com/2007/10/ron-pau...bee-in-new.html

 

Romney: 32.4%

Giuliani: 21.8%

McCain: 15.2%

Paul 7.4%

 

Ron Paul is ahead of both Thompson and Huckabee, unfortunately Romney is leading the pack.

 

 

 

[Texsox]

I am still trying to understand how Rudy G is doing so well.

[YASNY]

New Hampshire polls...

 

http://nh2008.blogspot.com/2007/10/ron-pau...bee-in-new.html

Ron Paul is ahead of both Thompson and Huckabee, unfortunately Romney is leading the pack.

 

I may be wrong, but I have a feeling there will be a lot of Paul supporters come out of the woodwork once the primaries hit.

[southsider2k5]

He would be a good pick to be a darkhorse in the early primaries. He seems to be able to motivate people like few others can do. Obama seems to be the guy on the other side of the aisle with the same gift.

[Texsox]

I hope so. If the GOP doesn't pick McCain, I pray one of the dark horses emerges. The front runners are leaving me a bit cold. I have the same reaction to Rudy that Kap does to Edwards.

[YASNY]

He would be a good pick to be a darkhorse in the early primaries. He seems to be able to motivate people like few others can do. Obama seems to be the guy on the other side of the aisle with the same gift.

 

I'm going to change my registration to Republican just so I can vote for Paul in the primary.

[Texsox]

I'm going to change my registration to Republican just so I can vote for Paul in the primary.

 

You'll be more comfortable over there.

[southsider2k5]

Huckabee sounds like he is starting to be floated as a possible VP candidate... Interesting.

 

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21455620/

 

Is Huckabee the '03 John Edwards?

As campaigns go, Huckabee may end up as the only guy without a black eye

 

 

WASHINGTON - One can tell a lot about the state of the '08 GOP field when the candidate getting the most buzz these days has less than $1 million in the bank and is not even breaking into the high single digits in national polling. Mike Huckabee's strong showing among Christian conservatives has tongues wagging about a primary that just won't seem to gel around a front-runner. But can we really put Huckabee into the top tier? Is he anything more than a spoiler? What can his rise (or fall) in early states like Iowa tell us about the fate of the other Republican contenders?

 

For anyone who's watched him in the debates, Huckabee's appeal is obvious. He's a gifted orator whose comfort in his own skin (interesting given that he's lost more than 100 pounds) translates well to TV audiences. But more importantly, he's giving GOP voters, specifically social conservatives, something that few other candidates are: a message that emphasizes who he is rather than who he is not. While Mitt Romney's and Rudy Giuliani's pitch to the base is centered heavily on bashing Hillary Rodham Clinton , Huckabee's appeal is centered on his own record and story.

 

Just as then-Sen. John Edwards did in '03, Huckabee is contently sitting on the sidelines while the other candidates throw punches at one another. This may explain his recent jump in the polls in Iowa. Survey trends from pollster.com show the former Arkansas governor had been basically flat for most of the year, but his upward trajectory since August has been the most dramatic of any candidate.

 

An endorsement from recent dropout Sam Brownback could help sustain Huckabee's momentum. It won't bring much in the way of money or obvious votes (the Kansas senator was one step above an asterisk in the most recent Des Moines Register poll). But Iowa watchers say that Brownback had a strong grassroots organization among the pro-life community. And there's no love lost between the Romney and Brownback campaigns.

 

Even so, does Huckabee really have a shot at winning Iowa? Here's where comparisons to Edwards get a little tricky. Like Huckabee, Edwards was trailing in the polls in October 2003, but he was even further behind his main rivals than Huckabee is today. A poll [PDF] from Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research (D), conducted Oct. 2 through Oct. 13, had Edwards in a distant fourth place with the support of just 8 percent of respondents. Yet, at this point in 2003, Edwards had a lot more money. At the end of 2003's third quarter, Edwards had almost $5 million in the bank; Huckabee has just $651,000. Even more importantly, reports NBC News/National Journal's Carrie Dann, the chatter among Iowa insiders on both sides of the aisle is that Huckabee has actually spent less time in the state than one would expect. In fact, says Dann, some are questioning why he hasn't just moved permanently to the state.

 

Huckabee is not without enemies, particularly in the anti-tax wing of the party. It remains to be seen if they will allow Huckabee to continue creeping up in the polls without launching an attack on him. Remember, the Club for Growth already ran ads against Huckabee in the run-up to the Ames straw poll. Since the Club would be satisfied to have Romney, Fred Thompson or Giuliani as the nominee, it doesn't have to worry about the unintended consequences of its strategy.

 

What about the Romney campaign letting some of the air out of Huckabee's tires? As it looks today, the rest of the GOP front-runners seem to be leaving Iowa for Huckabee and Romney to fight over. Romney can't afford anything but a big win over his underfunded opponent in order to keep his front-runner status. But Romney also has to protect his tenuous lead in New Hampshire and prove his viability in the South with a good showing in South Carolina. Huckabee's appeal is much more limited in a place like New Hampshire, where economic conservatives are a larger chunk of the electorate. A decent showing could give him a lift going into more friendly territory in South Carolina. All of this assumes, however, that he has the infrastructure to both raise and properly spend an infusion of cash.

 

As John McCain, Romney, Giuliani and Thompson continue to throw elbows, Huckabee may end up as the only guy without a black eye, which is reminiscent of Edwards in 2004. What is even more remarkable about Edwards is that even after a bloody general election, he was able to emerge relatively unscathed. This sets Huckabee up well as a potential running mate, especially if the nominee is a Northeasterner looking to shore himself up in the Bible Belt. Huckabee's populist economic message could also help give the GOP ticket a boost among once Republican-leaning but now disaffected voters in Ohio. Of course, there would be concern that his socially conservative positions could turn off moderate suburbanites.

 

Whether Huckabee is able to keep up a head of steam until early January is unclear, but his appeal today is understandable. Many primary voters know they are ultimately going to have to eat their vegetables and vote for a candidate they either don't love or who doesn't line up with them on 100 percent of their issues. But at this point, they sure like being able to eat the ice cream that Huckabee's offering.

[YASNY]

You'll be more comfortable over there.

 

Maybe. Thinking I'll go independant later.

[NorthSideSox72]

I am still trying to understand how Rudy G is doing so well.

Two words...

 

nine

 

eleven

 

The fact that he screwed the firefighters and site workers after the fact is irrelevant, because its not part of the national perception of his background. Yet. That is starting to change though, and I still feel like he is likely to fall down.

 

[Texsox]

Two words...

 

nine

 

eleven

 

The fact that he screwed the firefighters and site workers after the fact is irrelevant, because its not part of the national perception of his background. Yet. That is starting to change though, and I still feel like he is likely to fall down.

 

I just can't believe the family values party is embracing him. He seems like Slick Willie II and I thought we had put that behind us.