GOP Primaries/Candidates thread

[NorthSideSox72]

I just can't believe the family values party is embracing him. He seems like Slick Willie II and I thought we had put that behind us.

The party ISN'T embracing him. The Republican voting base wants someone who they think can beat Hillary, and they think he's it. Plus, again, 9/11.

[Texsox]

The party ISN'T embracing him. The Republican voting base wants someone who they think can beat Hillary, and they think he's it. Plus, again, 9/11.

 

Perhaps I should have said, I can't believe he is polling ahead of . . . ahead of . . . well anyone in that field.

[NorthSideSox72]

Perhaps I should have said, I can't believe he is polling ahead of . . . ahead of . . . well anyone in that field.

Did I mention 9/11?

 

[Balta1701]

John McCain runs an anti Hippy, anti Hillary ad.

 

 

Opinions?

[Texsox]

[NorthSideSox72]

Perhaps I should have said, I can't believe he is polling ahead of . . . ahead of . . . well anyone in that field.

Also, look at what is really going on in those polls. In national polls, Giuliani continues to have a big lead, which is greatly because of name recognition (9/11). On the other hand, look at IA and NH, where there is actual campaigning going on. Giuliani is 2nd or 3rd in those states, and his numbers are trending down as time goes on. In other words, when Giuliani actually starts campaigning and spending money in a place, he declines. What does that tell you? It tells me that Rudy is trading mostly on his name, and that once people get to know him, he will fall out of the pack. Add to this also that, as previously stated here by other posters, the big relgious right money is still in a holding pattern. And Giuliani is probably well below Romney, Thompson and Huckabee on the lists of those people for where money will go.

 

Unless he turns things around, Giuliani will lose.

 

[Texsox]

Romney is going to have trouble tapping those funds also. I'm guessing they will be long hold outs. This may help McCain who wasn't the religious right's choice in 2000

[southsider2k5]

Who ever gets the nomination is going to get a lot of money all at once, after they emerge from the pack. The field is so lame, everyone is waiting for a winner.

[StrangeSox]

Romney wants to set federal student aid based on how useful your degree is to society.

 

http://www.bostonherald.com/news/national/...ticleid=1038792

 

Seems like the worst idea, by far, from any of the candidates, and a lot of dumb s*** has been floated already. It would just result in colleges pumping out corporate drones and nothing more.

[NorthSideSox72]

Romney wants to set federal student aid based on how useful your degree is to society.

 

http://www.bostonherald.com/news/national/...ticleid=1038792

 

Seems like the worst idea, by far, from any of the candidates, and a lot of dumb s*** has been floated already. It would just result in colleges pumping out corporate drones and nothing more.

I'd have to agree. Not because of having corporate drones, but for a simpler reason - "useful to society" is 100% subjective. And thus, you'd end up with a CONSTANT battle among Congress and the President in perpetuity, where the among of grant aid would fluctuate wildly from year to year, thus guaranteeing that some students in ALL disciplines would not be able to afford school.

 

This idea is the definition of short-sighted.

 

[BigSqwert]

Romney wants to set federal student aid based on how useful your degree is to society.

 

http://www.bostonherald.com/news/national/...ticleid=1038792

 

Seems like the worst idea, by far, from any of the candidates, and a lot of dumb s*** has been floated already. It would just result in colleges pumping out corporate drones and nothing more.

What a douche bag.

[southsider2k5]

Romney wants to set federal student aid based on how useful your degree is to society.

 

http://www.bostonherald.com/news/national/...ticleid=1038792

 

Seems like the worst idea, by far, from any of the candidates, and a lot of dumb s*** has been floated already. It would just result in colleges pumping out corporate drones and nothing more.

 

It depends on what exactly he is talking about... Is he talking about giving more to teachers, police, firefighters, social workers etc? How about professions like medicine which require a whole lot more college years, and leave the students with a huge pile of debt when they are done? If that is the case, what is so bad about that? With the low pays that lots of societitally beneficial positions have, there are chronic shortages in those areas (think teachers and nurses for example) what would be wrong with encouraging those nobel fields?

 

Now if he has another set of standards to base this stuff on, my reaction would be different, but I don't see what is so stupid about a plan like this on the surface. To be honest, it sounds like something that would usually come from the Democratic side of the aisle.

[Texsox]

Nice on the surface. But how many people are working in their degree field five, ten, twenty years after graduation?

[NorthSideSox72]

It depends on what exactly he is talking about... Is he talking about giving more to teachers, police, firefighters, social workers etc? How about professions like medicine which require a whole lot more college years, and leave the students with a huge pile of debt when they are done? If that is the case, what is so bad about that? With the low pays that lots of societitally beneficial positions have, there are chronic shortages in those areas (think teachers and nurses for example) what would be wrong with encouraging those nobel fields?

 

Now if he has another set of standards to base this stuff on, my reaction would be different, but I don't see what is so stupid about a plan like this on the surface. To be honest, it sounds like something that would usually come from the Democratic side of the aisle.

That's exactly what I am talking about. Making this a partisan issue has the potential to be devastating.

 

If states independently want to do things because of shortages, for example, of nurses or cops or teachers, then I might be OK with that, under certain circumstances. I just think the Feds saying which degrees are important "to society" is dangerous.

 

[Texsox]

That's exactly what I am talking about. Making this a partisan issue has the potential to be devastating.

 

If states independently want to do things because of shortages, for example, of nurses or cops or teachers, then I might be OK with that, under certain circumstances. I just think the Feds saying which degrees are important "to society" is dangerous.

 

They already forgive some student loans if you teach in certain areas that are crippled by shortages of teachers. This sounds like a natural continuance of those programs.

As long as it doesn't result in more lawyers or accountants

I kid, because I care™ *

 

*Used by permission of FlaSoxxJim

[kapkomet]

F those accountants.

 

 

[Rex Kickass]

Asked about a departure of a high level political strategist in his campaign, Fred Thompson referred reporters to talk to his campaign. Ummm, aren't you the face of the campaign?

 

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20071024/ap_on_...on_ap_interview

 

Republican Fred Thompson played down a staff member's departure and a New Hampshire supporter's defection Wednesday, saying it's not up to him to know what's going on at every level of his presidential campaign.

 

"This is a campaign with a lot of different moving parts and a lot of things going on simultaneously," Thompson said in an interview with The Associated Press.

 

The campaign recently lost Nelson Warfield, a political media strategist, and New Hampshire Republican Dan Hughes said he had switched to John McCain's team.

 

"You know, the campaign can address that. I can't really address who's doing — and who was doing — exactly what at every level of this campaign," Thompson said after speaking to about 300 people at a restaurant in South Carolina. "They're the ones who know what's going on on a daily basis. ... I'll let the experts speak on that."

[Texsox]

Asked about a departure of a high level political strategist in his campaign, Fred Thompson referred reporters to talk to his campaign. Ummm, aren't you the face of the campaign?

 

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20071024/ap_on_...on_ap_interview

 

I accept his answer on that one. I don't expect him to know state by state. Maybe if the person was one of his direct reports, but I think Freddy is right on this one.

[StrangeSox]

It depends on what exactly he is talking about... Is he talking about giving more to teachers, police, firefighters, social workers etc? How about professions like medicine which require a whole lot more college years, and leave the students with a huge pile of debt when they are done? If that is the case, what is so bad about that? With the low pays that lots of societitally beneficial positions have, there are chronic shortages in those areas (think teachers and nurses for example) what would be wrong with encouraging those nobel fields?

 

Teachers and nurses are pretty clear-cut beneficial degrees. The problem comes in discouraging any field not viewed as "useful" by the government. Should we cut aid for fine arts? Sociology? Philosophy? Theoretical physics? Who determines what's useful, how useful they are, and how much money they get? As NSS pointed out, it would set up a permanent struggle for funding and defining these extremely large and subjective fields.

 

[southsider2k5]

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21484526/

 

Ron Paul uses new millions for media push

Republican underdog prepares to spend big bucks on New Hampshire ads

 

Chip Litherland for The New York

Ron Paul, on a libertarian-minded bid for the Republican presidential nomination, is surprisingly good at online fund-raising.

View related photos

 

By Julie Bosman

 

Updated: 1 hour, 25 minutes ago

WASHINGTON - If media muscle is any measure of a candidate, Representative Ron Paul of Texas is getting ready to flex his.

 

In the last two weeks, Mr. Paul — a Republican presidential candidate — has spent nearly a half-million dollars on radio advertisements in four early primary states, the first major media investment of his campaign. On Tuesday night, he will take a seat opposite Jay Leno.

 

And on Monday, a campaign spokesman said, he will roll out his first major television advertising campaign, spending $1.1 million on five new commercials to be shown in the New Hampshire market for the next six weeks. (In contrast, Rudolph W. Giuliani, the former mayor of New York and a rival for the Republican nomination, has yet to commit to any spending for television advertisements.)

 

Mr. Paul’s commercials are intended to introduce him to voters in New Hampshire, where independents can vote in either primary and where a libertarian streak could give Mr. Paul a chance to translate his quirky popularity into votes.

 

After raising a surprising $5 million in the third quarter, Mr. Paul has found himself with a significant pile of cash; he has $5.4 million on hand.

 

His campaign says it is just the beginning: it has set fund-raising goals of $3 million in October, $4 million in November and $5 million in December, marks campaign managers say are within reach. In two days last week, Mr. Paul raised $438,000.

 

'It's time to spend it'

Mr. Paul places no restrictions on who can donate to his campaign, but most of his money comes through the Internet. His campaign said 78 percent of the $5 million in contributions from the third quarter was collected online.

 

“It’s time to spend it,” said Jesse Benton, a spokesman for Mr. Paul.

 

It is a decidedly traditional strategy for a campaign that has been run largely by an army of enthusiastic volunteers (Mr. Paul’s circle of paid staff members has been small, but will grow, he said), and fervent supporters on the Internet, who have promoted their candidate on blogs and other online forums.

 

Mr. Benton said the television campaign would be geared toward introducing Mr. Paul to a greater audience — not to attacking fellow Republicans.

 

In the first commercial, shot last week in New Hampshire, voters present some of the themes of Mr. Paul’s candidacy, including his opposition to the Iraq war and his past as a doctor in a small Texas town.

 

Mr. Paul, 72, may speak like an outsider but he has represented conservative Republican districts in Texas for 10 terms, and he was the Libertarian candidate for president in 1988. Still, in the Republican debates, he has stood out with his emphatic antiwar, low-tax, anti-immigration, small-government views — the kind of positions that could appeal to people in a state like New Hampshire, where independent voters make up 45 percent of the electorate. Dante J. Scala, an associate professor of political science at the University of New Hampshire, said that if the advertisement campaign was effective, it could convince more independents, libertarians and even moderate Republicans to vote for Mr. Paul. According to a recent Marist College poll, about 15 percent of likely Republican voters in the state were undecided.

 

A poll released Thursday by the New Hampshire Institute of Politics at St. Anselm College in Manchester, put Mr. Paul in fourth place in New Hampshire with 7 percent of the vote, behind Senator John McCain of Arizona (15 percent), Mr. Giuliani (22 percent) and Mitt Romney (32 percent), the former governor of Massachusetts.

 

“It’s striking to me that he’s at 7 percent without running a single TV ad in New Hampshire,” Mr. Scala said. “If he starts to attract significant support among independents, then he could start to hurt Giuliani or McCain.”

 

'Fly in the ointment'

Mr. Paul’s Republican rivals may already be taking notice of his newfound purchasing power. During the Oct. 21 Republican debate in Florida, the other candidates treated him more gently than in previous debates, like the one in May when Mr. Giuliani admonished him for suggesting that the attacks on Sept. 11, 2001, were spurred by American policies in the Middle East.

 

Nick Gillespie, the editor in chief of Reason, the monthly libertarian magazine, called Mr. Paul “a fly in the ointment” in the Republican race.

 

“Just by being out there and pushing a strict constitutional line, I think he’s making them sweat a lot,” Mr. Gillespie said. “He’s highlighting the fact that they will say anything to get elected. Or at least to get through the primary.”

 

But even as Mr. Paul tries to push into the mainstream, he brings with him an assortment of supporters — Libertarians, independents, socially conservative Democrats, and, less desirable for the campaign, white supremacists and 9/11 conspiracy theorists — who have their own ideas about what his message should be and how he should project it.

 

Many have been active on the Internet, voicing their thoughts about free markets, the war, taxes and which of those issues they want him to emphasize. Some of his supporters were banned this week by RedState.com, a popular Web site for conservative commentary, from posting comments about Mr. Paul, on the argument that they were liberals masquerading as conservatives.

 

In an interview as he drove from Washington to his home in Virginia last week — fresh from filming television advertisements that morning — Mr. Paul said his supporters were “making signs and meeting and writing and waving signs and doing all these things.”

 

“Sometimes we sit around and figure out, ‘I wonder how much value there is from that?’ ” Mr. Paul said.

 

“They’re totally out of our control,” he added.

 

Copyright © 2007 The New York Times

[NorthSideSox72]

Perhaps a Paul/Colbert ticket?

 

[Texsox]

Perhaps a Paul/Colbert ticket?

Interesting.

[southsider2k5]

Perhaps a Paul/Colbert ticket?

 

That is pretty funny.

 

[southsider2k5]

http://www.time.com/time/politics/article/...=rss-topstories

 

Huckabee Surges, Edwards Fades

 

Monday, Oct. 29, 2007 By JAY NEWTON-SMALL/WASHINGTON

 

The latest still photo from the slow motion, inter-party electoral horse race known as Iowa is in — and it looks like John Edwards is losing steam on the Democratic side while Mike Huckabee is charging at the GOP frontrunners.

 

The University of Iowa Hawkeye Poll, released at 8 a.m. Monday morning, shows Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama in a heated battle on the Democratic side. Clinton leads the poll with 28.9% while Obama garnered 26.6%. John Edwards trails with 20%, a 6-point drop from the last Hawkeye poll in August.

 

For Edwards, who has basically been living in Iowa (and who parlayed a second place finish there in 2004 into a spot on the Democratic ticket), the results have to be disconcerting. Unlike Obama and Clinton, he has few other strongholds, and a poor showing in Iowa could place his candidacy in serious jeopardy.

 

On the bright side is that the people who do support Edwards have a history of showing up when it counts. Nearly 76% of Edwards' poll supporters attended the 2004 caucus, while 58% of Clinton's and 55% of Obama's supporters made the trip four years ago. "If we only look at caucus-goers who are almost certain to attend, we find that Edwards makes up the gap with Obama and Clinton, and moves clearly ahead," said David Redlawsk, the poll's director and an associate professor of political science at the University of Iowa. Of course, Bill Clinton skipped the caucuses in 1992, so this is the first time a Clinton is really running in the state, while Obama was an unknown almost everywhere four years ago. Another bad omen for Edwards: only 7.9% of Democrats polled said they are "very likely" to change their minds between now and January 3, when both parties caucus in Iowa.

 

On the Republican side, the Hawkeye poll showed that former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney has widened his overall lead by 8 percentage points, to 36.2%. But Mike Huckabee, a former governor of Arkansas, has gained ground despite spending just $1.7 million compared to Romney's $53.6 million. Huckabee is up from less than 2 % in the same poll in August to 12.8%, putting him in a statistical tie for second place with Rudy Giuliani who garnered 13.1%. Giuliani had spent $30.2 million as of September 30, according to Federal Election Commission reports.

 

"If Huckabee can motivate religious conservatives to attend the caucuses in large numbers, he may well threaten Romney and close some of the overall gap," said Redlawsk. About 44% of Iowa Republican caucus-goers consider themselves Evangelical or born again.

 

The latest Hawkeye Poll comes less than a week after both parties set their caucus dates for January 3, the earliest presidential tests ever. The truncated schedule means that candidates will have to finalize their pitches before the holiday season. It also makes candidates vulnerable to any last-minute news events or surprises since they will not have time to respond after the holidays. And given the how long the race has already gone on, many Iowans have begun to make up their minds: overall, less than 10 % remain undecided.

 

This doesn't bode well for those outside the top tier. On the Democratic side, New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson's support declined from 9.4 % in August to 7.2% while Delaware Senator Joe Biden was the only other candidate to break the 2% threshold. On the Republican side, Fred Thompson stands fourth with 11.4% followed by Arizona Senator John McCain with 6%.

 

The poll of 285 likely Republican caucus goers and 306 likely Democratic caucus goers was conducted October 17 to 24. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 5.8 percentage points on the Republican side and 5.5 percentage points on the Democratic side.

 

 

[Balta1701]

So, here I can present today the first study I've seen of the performance of the media during this campaign. Its interesting enough that I'm posting it in both the GOP and Dem threads. I'll post some different details here, but I suggest at least taking the time to read the summary.

 

* Just five candidates have been the focus of more than half of all the coverage. Hillary Clinton received the most (17% of stories), though she can thank the overwhelming and largely negative attention of conservative talk radio hosts for much of the edge in total volume. Barack Obama was next (14%), with Republicans Giuliani, McCain, and Romney measurably behind (9% and 7% and 5% respectively). As for the rest of the pack, Elizabeth Edwards, a candidate spouse, received more attention than 10 of them, and nearly as much as her husband.

 

* Democrats generally got more coverage than Republicans, (49% of stories vs. 31%.) One reason was that major Democratic candidates began announcing their candidacies a month earlier than key Republicans, but that alone does not fully explain the discrepancy.

 

* Overall, Democrats also have received more positive coverage than Republicans (35% of stories vs. 26%), while Republicans received more negative coverage than Democrats (35% vs. 26%). For both parties, a plurality of stories, 39%, were neutral or balanced.

 

* Most of that difference in tone, however, can be attributed to the friendly coverage of Obama (47% positive) and the critical coverage of McCain (just 12% positive.) When those two candidates are removed from the field, the tone of coverage for the two parties is virtually identical.

 

* There were also distinct coverage differences in different media. Newspapers were more positive than other media about Democrats and more citizen-oriented in framing stories. Talk radio was more negative about almost every candidate than any other outlet. Network television was more focused than other media on the personal backgrounds of candidates. For all sectors, however, strategy and horse race were front and center.