GOP Primaries/Candidates thread

[southsider2k5]

The national polls with 52 weeks to election day have Rudy Guilliani at 28%, Thompson in second at 19%, McCain in 3rd at 16%, and Romney in 4th at 11%

 

The Dem side has Hillary still with a sizable lead, but it has gotten MUCH smaller. She went from a 51% to 21% advantage over Obama to a 44% to 25% advantage from the last CNN poll in October.

 

http://www.cnn.com/2007/POLITICS/11/05/poll.presidential.08/

 

With the election of the next president a year away, Sen. Hillary Clinton remains the person to beat, a CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll released Monday suggests.

 

 

Sen. Hillary Clinton walks with former Vice President Walter Mondale Sunday.

 

As the countdown begins to November 4, 2008, the New York Democrat continues to dominate the race for the Democratic presidential nomination, and comes out ahead when voters are asked whether they prefer her or the GOP front-runner, former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani.

 

But Clinton's path to the White House is in no way certain. Clinton was criticized for her performance during a debate last week, and her rivals for the Democratic nomination have stepped up attacks that she has equivocated on her position on Iraq, Iran and other major issues.

 

The Republican presidential candidates have also stepped up their attacks on the Democratic front-runner, with each suggesting that he has the best chance of stopping Clinton.

 

The attacks may be working. The CNN/Opinion Research polls suggests that Clinton's support has slipped from its height one month ago. Watch CNN's Bill Schneider on the latest poll numbers »

 

"Clinton's strength is about where it was throughout the summer, indicating that she has lost the support she gained last month but that Obama has not yet cut into her core constituency," CNN political director Keating Holland said.

 

Clinton is the top choice of 44 percent of the likely Democratic voters interviewed for the poll. Her closest rival, Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois, was the top choice of 25 percent, and former Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina has 14 percent.

 

All other Democratic candidates were in single digits. New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson was backed by 4 percent, Sen. Joe Biden of Delaware by 3 percent, Sen. Christopher Dodd by 2 percent, Ohio Rep. Dennis Kucinich by 2 percent and former Alaska Sen. Mike Gravel was at 1 percent.

 

The poll involved 467 interviews conducted on November 2-4 with Democrats or independents who lean Democratic. The poll's margin of error was plus or minus 4.5 percentage points. View the poll results »

 

In an October CNN/Opinion Research poll, Clinton was supported by 51 percent of Democratic voters and had a 30 point lead over Obama.

 

During last week's Democratic debate, Clinton received heavy criticism from her fellow Democratic presidential rivals, who are desperate to shake up the presidential race just months before the first voting occurs in the Iowa Caucus in early January.

 

Edwards was particularly aggressive during the debate, criticizing Clinton for her stance on Iraq, Iran and Social Security.

 

"The American people ... deserve a president of the United States that they know will tell them the truth and won't say one thing one time and something different at a different time," Edwards said.

 

Edwards has also accused Clinton of being a "corporate Democrat" too willing to defend a "corrupt" Washington establishement.

 

"We desperately need in the next president someone that recognizes we have a system in Washington that's become broken, corruption has crept into it, and we have to tell the truth about that," Edwards said Monday. "If you defend that system, I don't believe you can bring about the change that America needs."

 

In the Republican presidential race, Giuliani continues to be the leading candidate, with the backing of 28 percent of the Republican primary voters polled. Former Sen. Fred Thompson of Tennessee was backed by 19 percent. Sen. John McCain of Arizona was the top pick of 16 percent, and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney had 11 percent.

 

Of the remaining Republican candidates, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee received 10 percent, Texas Rep. Ron Paul 5 percent, California Rep. Duncan Hunter 4 percent and Colorado Rep. Tom Tancredo 3 percent.

 

In a head-to-head matchup of the two front-runners, Clinton leads Giuliani 51 percent to 45 percent. That lead has increased since October, when Clinton led Giuliani 49 percent to 47 percent.

 

"The overall political environment seems to favor the Democrats, partly because Democratic voters are more enthusiastic about the coming election and partly because the public is in a sour mood, which is usually not a good sign for the incumbent party," Holland said.

 

Only 42 percent of Americans think things are going well, while 58 percent think things are going badly, the poll found.

 

"The public is not just pessimistic about the country -- Americans are angry," Holland said. "More than eight in 10 say they are angry about the way things are going in the country."

 

Clinton's lead over Giuliani would be greater if a third-party candidate entered the race who believes abortion should be illegal in all circumstances, the poll found. In a three-way race, Clinton would get the support of 48 percent of voters, Giuliani 32 percent and the third-party candidate 18 percent.

 

The poll's margin of error was plus-or-minus 3 percent.

 

"My analysis of it is that [a third-party candidate] is more of an attempt to keep the nomination from me," Giuliani said. "You know it is a tactic, and a legitimate one. People have to think about that and consider it.''

 

The lack of enthusiasm for Giuliani, particularly by social conservatives, could spell trouble for the GOP next year if he becomes the nominee, Holland said.

 

"Only 27 percent of Republicans say they would feel enthusiastic if Giuliani won the GOP nod, and the remaining GOP candidates fare even worse," he said

[Balta1701]

The national polls with 52 weeks to election day have Rudy Guilliani at 28%, Thompson in second at 19%, McCain in 3rd at 16%, and Romney in 4th at 11%

 

The Dem side has Hillary still with a sizable lead, but it has gotten MUCH smaller. She went from a 51% to 21% advantage over Obama to a 44% to 25% advantage from the last CNN poll in October.

 

http://www.cnn.com/2007/POLITICS/11/05/poll.presidential.08/

Right now, all I really care about is the Iowa data. And here's what it says:

 

Poll Date Sample Romney Huckabee Giuliani Thompson McCain Spread

RCP Average 10/10 - 10/29 - 28.8 15.5 13.8 12.0 7.8 Romney +13.3

ARG 10/26 - 10/29 600 LV 27 19 16 8 14 Romney +8.0

Univ. of Iowa 10/17 - 10/24 285 LV 36 13 13 11 6 Romney +23.0

Strategic Vision ® 10/12 - 10/14 600 LV 27 12 13 10 5 Romney +14.0

Rasmussen 10/10 - 10/14 650 LV 25 18 13 19 6 Romney +6.0

Edited November 7, 2007 by Balta1701

[NorthSideSox72]

The national polls with 52 weeks to election day have Rudy Guilliani at 28%, Thompson in second at 19%, McCain in 3rd at 16%, and Romney in 4th at 11%

 

The Dem side has Hillary still with a sizable lead, but it has gotten MUCH smaller. She went from a 51% to 21% advantage over Obama to a 44% to 25% advantage from the last CNN poll in October.

 

http://www.cnn.com/2007/POLITICS/11/05/poll.presidential.08/

Already posted. I guess I should have put it in both threads though.

 

[YASNY]

Robertson's being a weasal and selling out his own convictions. Instead of endorsing who he thinks the best Republican candidate is, he's endorsing who he thinks has the best shot at keeping the Dems out of the White House.

[southsider2k5]

Robertson's being a weasal and selling out his own convictions. Instead of endorsing who he thinks the best Republican candidate is, he's endorsing who he thinks has the best shot at keeping the Dems out of the White House.

 

Knowing those two, I wouldn't be surprised if there was a backroom deal involved.... like maybe picking an ultraconservative as a VP running mate.

[YASNY]

Knowing those two, I wouldn't be surprised if there was a backroom deal involved.... like maybe picking an ultraconservative as a VP running mate.

 

Do you really think Robertson has that much clout now?

[Chet Lemon]

Robertson, not as much, but Rudy does have Olson and Ashcroft working closely w/ him.

[NorthSideSox72]

Robertson, not as much, but Rudy does have Olson and Ashcroft working closely w/ him.

Oh goodie. Maybe he can have Ashcroft sing at his innauguration.

 

[southsider2k5]

Do you really think Robertson has that much clout now?

 

No I do not think Robertson has the clout, I think he was a tool of convience for Rudy. Guilliani's one big weakness is that he is viewed as too socially liberal for a big influencial chunk of the Republician party. He needs to somehow convince that segment that he really won't roll back everything that they have been working for. He needs the endorsements of those exact kind of people. I could see him sitting down and saying that he would put a Brownback or Hunter, or the like, on the ballot as a VP to show that he is "authentically" conservative, in exchange for gettting a public endoresement before primary season to calm that talk down. There was even talk of a schism by the religious right to get "their" candidate on the Presidential ballot. Rudy knows he has no chance if that happens.

[southsider2k5]

Fred Thompson might have been a prosecutor in Law & Order, but really seems to like hanging out with criminals in real life. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/conte...ml?hpid=topnews

So Thompson isn't aware that his campaign chairs are convicted drug traffickers, he isn't aware of high level defections within his campaign, and apparently didnt turn his hearing aid up enough to understand the difference between Civil Unions and the Soviet Union. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/conte...7102901455.html

I understand wanting someone from outside Washington running, but I don't understand why this guy is running.

 

Our of curiousity, what is your reaction to Team Clinton hiring Sandy Berger, knowing the legal problems he has had?

[Rex Kickass]

I don't like it. I don't want Hillary to be my President. If she wins the nod, I'll support her, but grudgingly.

[NorthSideSox72]

Fair or not, this won't help Giuliani. Kerik has been indicted on federal charges.

 

[Balta1701]

In case you didn't catch it, and this has to play into this race somehow, Kerik was indicted today.

[NorthSideSox72]

In case you didn't catch it, and this has to play into this race somehow, Kerik was indicted today.

Dude. Did you see the post right before yours?

 

[Balta1701]

Dude. Did you see the post right before yours?

clearly not

[NorthSideSox72]

clearly not

 

[Rex Kickass]

Fair or not, this won't help Giuliani. Kerik has been indicted on federal charges.

 

How is this not fair? Guiliani was all about Kerik, even last week. Citing Kerik as the main reason behind the 60% drop in crime in NYC during his tenure. Despite the fact that Kerik was only put to the Top Cop job in 2000, and crime decreased less than 10% under his watch.

[NorthSideSox72]

How is this not fair? Guiliani was all about Kerik, even last week. Citing Kerik as the main reason behind the 60% drop in crime in NYC during his tenure. Despite the fact that Kerik was only put to the Top Cop job in 2000, and crime decreased less than 10% under his watch.

I didn't say it was unfair. That was why I placed the caveat. Some will think its just mudslinging because he was Giuliani's appointee. Others will point at the close relationship and say its relevant. I'd say it has some relevance.

 

[Rex Kickass]

Ok then.

[southsider2k5]

I didn't say it was unfair. That was why I placed the caveat. Some will think its just mudslinging because he was Giuliani's appointee. Others will point at the close relationship and say its relevant. I'd say it has some relevance.

 

So that makes 4 of top 6 (at least) Presidential candidates that have had close relations with people who have been at least indicted of impressive crimes. (Guilliani, Clinton, Thompson, and Obama)

 

Yeah, election of change my ass.

[NorthSideSox72]

So that makes 4 of top 6 (at least) Presidential candidates that have had close relations with people who have been at least indicted of impressive crimes. (Guilliani, Clinton, Thompson, and Obama)

 

Yeah, election of change my ass.

Give me a Richardson - McCain or Richardson - Paul matchup and I'm happy. But that ain't happenin'.

 

Actually, I think Obama's connection isn't as bad as the others, and Thompson's is similar. Clinton takes the cake, not just with Hsu, but not bringing in Berger. What a joke.

 

[YASNY]

So that makes 4 of top 6 (at least) Presidential candidates that have had close relations with people who have been at least indicted of impressive crimes. (Guilliani, Clinton, Thompson, and Obama)

 

Yeah, election of change my ass.

 

There's also this in Hillary's closet:

 

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,309796,00.html

[kapkomet]

There's also this in Hillary's closet:

 

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,309796,00.html

This is Teflon to her. No one will call her out on it, because no one dares. Not kidding, either.

[southsider2k5]

I guess the money-bombs are the "in" thing now... Fred Thompson is planning one on Nov 21

 

http://www.blogsforfredthompson.com/nation...ovember-21-2007

[NorthSideSox72]

New GOP polls out for IA and NH...

 

Iowa from Zogby (current percentage and change from last poll by same provider):

 

Romney 31% (-2)

Huckabee 15% (+7)

Giuliani 11% (-5)

Thompson 10% (-2)

McCain 8% (+2)

Paul 4% (+1)

 

NH from Rasmussen:

 

Romney 32% (+4)

Giuliani 17% (-2)

McCain 16% (even)

Huckabee 10% (even)

Thompson 7% (+1)

Paul 4% (+2)

 

So... Romney continues to lead in both states handily. Giuliani continues to fall. Huckabee makes a big run in IA to take 2nd place. Other than that, everyone else has only small moves.

 

Note that these falls for Giuliani are before this Kerik indictment hit the news. Things don't look good right now for Rudy, which I have to say I'm pretty happy about.

 

Can anyone catch Romney?