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NorthSideSox72

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Someone needs to tell Giuliani his bizarre delayed campaign strategy isn't working. He isn't going to win SC for sure (he's in 5th there solidly), and is looking like he's in 3rd in NV. As for Super Tuesday, his prime target? Well, here are the most recent polls (within last week only) from 3 of the largest states that day...

 

Florida (which is all-or-nothing, by the way)...

_________S-USA_StrVis_Quinn

McCain........25.........27.....22

Giuliani........23.........18.....20

Huckabee.....18.........20.....19

Romney.......18.........17.....19

Thompson.....9..........10......7

Paul..............4...........5.......5

 

California...

__________CNN_S-USA

McCain........20......33

Giuliani........14......18

Romney.......16......13

Huckabee.....13......14

Thompson.....6........9

Paul..............8........4

 

New Jersey...

__________Rasm_Monmouth

McCain.........29.......29

Giuliani.........27.......25

Huckabee......10.......11

Romney........10........9

Thompson......6.........5

Paul...............5.........5

 

So he isn't even leading in New Jersey, and is significantly behind in FL and CA. And the latest national polls, reflective of many of the other states on Super Tuesday, show this...

 

__________USAT_Pew_Hotline_NYT_ABC

McCain.........33.....29......32......33....28

Huckabee.....19.....20......17......18....20

Romney........11.....17......15.......8....19

Giuliani.........13.....13......12......10....15

Thompson......9.......9.......7........8......8

Paul...............3.......4.......4........5......3

 

So much for Rudy's goldmine. I doubt these states get better for him while he gets hammered in SC and NV. In fact, the trends with him in IA and NH were such that when he was actually campaigning, the more he was there, the more his numbers sank.

 

Barring some major weird events, I think Giuliani and Thompson are dead men walking.

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The Las Vegas Review Journal has given a heads up about poll results to be released tomorrow for NV:

On Friday the Review-Journal will publish the results of our statewide pre-caucus presidential preference poll conducted Monday through Wednesday by Mason-Dixon Polling & research.

 

On the GOP side former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney leads his closest opponent by 15 points.

 

On the Democratic side Hillary Clinton outdistances Barack Obama by 9 points.

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QUOTE(Rex Kicka** @ Jan 17, 2008 -> 11:31 PM)
A Thompson win in SC and a Guiliani win in FL would be most excellent.

A Thompson win in SC would be the equivalent of when Iowa State (ranked 104 of 107 D1 teams) beat Nebraska (ranked 6 of 107 D1 teams) in 1992. Sure its possible, but...

 

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QUOTE(Alpha Dog @ Jan 17, 2008 -> 02:45 PM)
Damn. I could like McCain, if not for his amnesty views and campaign finance reform. Oh well, at least Fred seems to be beating SOMEBODY.

 

McCain seems like such an easy choice on that side, I can't believe he isn't just crushing everyone.

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QUOTE(Texsox @ Jan 18, 2008 -> 08:36 AM)
McCain seems like such an easy choice on that side, I can't believe he isn't just crushing everyone.

He's starting to - look at the polls. I think people realize he's probably the only Republican who has a good shot at winning the election against the Dems. Heck, I'll vote for him most likely if Clinton is the nominee for the Dems.

 

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QUOTE(NorthSideSox72 @ Jan 18, 2008 -> 08:51 AM)
He's starting to - look at the polls. I think people realize he's probably the only Republican who has a good shot at winning the election against the Dems. Heck, I'll vote for him most likely if Clinton is the nominee for the Dems.

If Clinton is the nominee I will weigh my options between Bloomberg , if he runs, and McCain.

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QUOTE(Texsox @ Jan 18, 2008 -> 08:36 AM)
McCain seems like such an easy choice on that side, I can't believe he isn't just crushing everyone.

The campaign finance stuff really is a sore point. And alot of conservatives do not like his amnesty positions. Otherwise, he would be an easy choice. However for me, if the other choice is Hillary, it is a slam dunk.

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QUOTE(Alpha Dog @ Jan 18, 2008 -> 09:00 AM)
The campaign finance stuff really is a sore point. And alot of conservatives do not like his amnesty positions. Otherwise, he would be an easy choice. However for me, if the other choice is Hillary, it is a slam dunk.

I tend to think his campaign finance reform efforts tried to go the right way, but he got so turned around by the establishment that the result was just awful. I only blame him a little for that.

 

I think McCain is dead wrong on Iraq, and I disagree with a few of his social stances. But I think he's truly in it for the right reasons (like Obama), I actually sort of trust the guy, he's actually interested in real energy policy change and environmental protection... he's just a much better choice than Hillary, to me, overall.

 

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I'll leave it to you guys to tell me whether you find this important or not. Tex excluded, as this I'm sure just decided his vote.

Former House Majority Leader Tom DeLay (R-Texas) lambasted Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) Thursday for “betraying” the conservative movement.

 

During a private luncheon with Republican chiefs of staff on Capitol Hill, DeLay — who has criticized McCain for years — stepped up his attacks in the wake of the senator’s reemergence as a top presidential contender. DeLay said McCain has no principles and indicated he would not endorse the senator if he won the GOP primary.

 

“If McCain gets the nomination, I don’t know what I’ll do,” DeLay said at the Capitol Hill Club, according to a source in the room. “I might have to sit this one out.”

 

He added that a McCain triumph for the GOP nomination would destroy the Republican Party. DeLay delivered his luncheon address to Republicans Assuring Mutual Support (RAMS), a group of current and former chiefs of staff and staff directors.

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QUOTE(Balta1701 @ Jan 18, 2008 -> 11:04 AM)
I'll leave it to you guys to tell me whether you find this important or not. Tex excluded, as this I'm sure just decided his vote.

Fortunately, Tom DeLay has become nearly useless to the GOP anyway. So he can "sit this one out" all he wants and it will make no difference.

 

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QUOTE(NorthSideSox72 @ Jan 18, 2008 -> 09:11 AM)
Fortunately, Tom DeLay has become nearly useless to the GOP anyway. So he can "sit this one out" all he wants and it will make no difference.

You don't think there's an awful lot of connections still remaining between him and the money guys?

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QUOTE(Texsox @ Jan 18, 2008 -> 08:36 AM)
McCain seems like such an easy choice on that side, I can't believe he isn't just crushing everyone.

 

I'll tell you something my friend, and I mean this merely as a statement of reality and not any disrespect to you or your views, but there is a vast majority of people north of South Texas that feel very very strongly about the border/immigration issue and they don't agree with you. That issue is also a deal breaker for most voters.

 

Having said that, there are so many problems with the GOP candidates not named McCain that I think he'll win the nomination unless there is an open convention. If that happens, think Gingrich.

 

Edit to add: I hadn't read your remark in the other thread about KY kids when I typed this post. It would have had a different tone, I believe.

Edited by YASNY
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QUOTE(Balta1701 @ Jan 18, 2008 -> 11:14 AM)
You don't think there's an awful lot of connections still remaining between him and the money guys?

I think a lot of those connections have backed off a bit, and I further think that they are more interested in beating the Dems than they are trying to support a candidate like Huckabee who would get destroyed in a national election.

 

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QUOTE(NorthSideSox72 @ Jan 18, 2008 -> 09:35 AM)
I think a lot of those connections have backed off a bit, and I further think that they are more interested in beating the Dems than they are trying to support a candidate like Huckabee who would get destroyed in a national election.

The money guys aren't going to go to Huckabee, but if it comes down to Romney/McCain, which it may well if Romney wins Nevada and McCain winds up in a dogfight in SoCar...

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Romney might pull out SC too... but Guiliani still polls pretty strong in FL btw, and that would be a big bump to his flagging campaign. A strong Thompson finish in SC, like a strong second makes him suddenly viable again too.

 

Since most states are not winner take all, we could have an open convention on the GOP side. Too many people to clear out to make this happen.

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QUOTE(Balta1701 @ Jan 18, 2008 -> 11:49 AM)
The money guys aren't going to go to Huckabee, but if it comes down to Romney/McCain, which it may well if Romney wins Nevada and McCain winds up in a dogfight in SoCar...

I think the GOP religious conservative base is a bit leery of Romney, both on the Mormon issue and on his electability.

 

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QUOTE(NorthSideSox72 @ Jan 18, 2008 -> 12:34 PM)
I think the GOP religious conservative base is a bit leery of Romney, both on the Mormon issue and on his electability.

 

I think the Morman issue is the cause of their concerns on his electability, for the most part.

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QUOTE(YASNY @ Jan 18, 2008 -> 11:16 AM)
I'll tell you something my friend, and I mean this merely as a statement of reality and not any disrespect to you or your views, but there is a vast majority of people north of South Texas that feel very very strongly about the border/immigration issue and they don't agree with you. That issue is also a deal breaker for most voters.

 

Having said that, there are so many problems with the GOP candidates not named McCain that I think he'll win the nomination unless there is an open convention. If that happens, think Gingrich.

 

Edit to add: I hadn't read your remark in the other thread about KY kids when I typed this post. It would have had a different tone, I believe.

McCain is right in line with all the democrats on immigration and on one of my most important issues, chain migration, he is horrible.

 

 

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