Dayn Perry Switches Gears, Hates Dodgers

[Heads22]

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/6764122

 

Lack of punch will be Achilles' heel for Dodgers

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Dayn Perry / Special to FOXSports.com

Posted: 42 minutes ago

Coming into the 2007 season, the Los Angeles Dodgers were a popular pick to take the flag in the National League West.

 

The addition of Juan Pierre made the Dodgers' lineup even less powerful. (Jeff Gross / Getty Images)

Last year, the Dodgers won 88 games and claimed the NL wild card. Over the winter, they added such notable talents as Jason Schmidt, Juan Pierre and Randy Wolf. They are a game-and-a-half ahead of the Diamondbacks going into Thursday play after taking two out of three at Dodger Stadium this week. So the best is yet to come for L.A., right? Well, probably not.

 

What's likely going to undermine the Dodgers this season — and, in the long term, keep them from hanging with the D'backs and San Diego Padres — is an offense that simply isn't up to snuff.

 

Last season, the Dodgers ranked fourth in the NL in runs scored, which is perfectly acceptable on its face. However, they did so by leading the NL with a .286 batting average with runners in scoring position (the Braves ranked a distant second with a .275 mark). For comparison's sake, consider that the Dodgers last season batted .270 with no runners on. So which is more likely, that the Dodgers last season had a roster larded with clutch hitters or that they enjoyed a fluke improvement with runners in scoring position? The latter explanation is almost certainly the correct one. As a result, the Dodgers scored more runs than they probably should have, given their native skills.

 

In particular, the lack of power is troubling: in 2006, the Dodgers ranked 15th in the NL in home runs. This is especially significant because Dodger Stadium is no longer the pitcher's haven it once was (thanks mostly to reduced foul territory and better hitting visuals), especially in terms of power. So the Dodgers last season failed to put up adequate power numbers despite playing their home games in a park that aided those very power numbers, particularly for right-handed hitters.

 

As well, consider that the Dodgers, who hit only 153 home runs as a team last season, allowed 20 of those homers to go elsewhere in the form of J.D. Drew (Drew also led the team in doubles). Now consider that the current Dodger model, with Drew and Kenny Lofton replaced by Luis Gonzalez and Pierre, is even less powerful than last year's. Like it or not, power rules all in the modern game, and the Dodgers don't have enough of it.

 

At present, the Dodgers rank a respectable seventh in the NL in runs scored, but when you look at their peripheral numbers (they rank eighth in AVG, eighth in OBP and 13th in SLG), it's clear they're lucky to have scored as many runs as they have. Expect the offense to regress in the coming weeks.

 

 

Jeff Kent has two of L.A.'s 14 homers, the third-fewest in MLB. (Stephen Dunn / Getty Images)

 

The team's strength, of course, is pitching. The Dodgers in '07 rank second in the NL in ERA and fourth in runs allowed. They've also compiled these numbers while getting nothing of value from Schmidt, their marquee winter addition. On the other hand, fifth starter Mark Hendrickson (1.30 ERA) will clearly not keep that up, and ditto for Brad Penny (1.64 ERA) and Brett Tomko and his sub-4.00 ERA. The bullpen is strong and should remain so, but don't expect the rotation to maintain its current level of performance.

 

Moreover, don't be surprised if, after the D'backs' young bats — Chris Young, Stephen Drew, Conor Jackson and Carlos Quentin — finally wake up (and they will), Arizona begins to pull away in the West. They're simply a better team.

 

Sure, the Dodgers will hang in there and likely finish with a winning season. However, a great deal of the optimism surrounding the Dodgers this season was misplaced. Much of that has to do with an over-valuing of their off-season moves. Pierre, while exciting, is on balance a mediocre performer who has no power and is an inefficient base-stealer. As for Schmidt, he has a promising recent history, but he's still an injury-prone hurler on the wrong side of his prime (and with no clear timetable for his return from the DL).

 

The real problem, however, is that the Dodgers' offense won't hold up. As explained above, they over-performed last season, and they got worse over the winter. It's fashionable these days to point to the Yankees and intone that you can't win without pitching. That's true to an extent, but why is no one pointing to, for instance, the A's and observing that it's equally difficult to win without any offense?

 

When the Dodgers miss the playoffs in 2007 — and, barring a notable in-season addition or two, they almost certainly will — it will be because GM Ned Colletti didn't address the team's primary weakness: a lineup that couldn't hit for power.

 

Must he hate on every team I like? Apparently he doesn't like good pitching.

[Kyyle23]

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/6764122

Must he hate on every team I like? Apparently he doesn't like good pitching.

 

Dayne Perry = Glorified Blogger

 

He is also obsessed with power in the leadoff role.

[Balta1701]

I've been wondering all offseason if the Dodgers offense was going to catch up with them. They're the complete opposite of us...they can get a lot of hits, but are really low on power. It's quite possible that as temperatures and the rest of the league's bats warm up, they'll find themselves just as unable to score enough runs as we are. Which is why I've thought they made a great match for JD for some time...a single, right handed power bat could well put them in the world series, if Jason Schmidt ever finds his fastball.

[witesoxfan]

The 2006 Minnesota Twins hit 143 team homers and scored 801 runs. A team .287/.347/.425/.772 will help with that.

 

I also don't understand Perry's argument. .286 instead of .270 really is not a huge difference. What is a huge difference is the OBP in those situations; the Dodgers had a .336 OBP with no one on base, a .362 OBP with runners on, and a .379 OBP with RISP. That number, to me, indicates that they were capable of rally scoring, or basically just getting one runner on, and then getting several batters on after that. It appears that Coletti put together a team that can collectively beat the s*** out of pitchers that pitch from the stretch, but can't hit him for s*** when he pitches from the windup. If they get one runner on, they'll able to move him over along with getting the initial runner on base as well.

 

The one number I do not see Perry mention is the Dodgers' slugging percentage from last year. Forgetting everything I've stated above, the Dodgers WERE a power hitting team last year, finishing tied for 6th in slugging percentage. What Dayn Perry apparently doesn't grasp is that doubles and triples count for power too, they just aren't as powerful as home runs.

 

They are not an elite offensive team, but they are good, and they'll score 750-800 runs again this year, and that I don't doubt in the least.