In two more days, fire sale talk will pick up

[caulfield12]

That's another organization. Maybe Houston should have quit two years ago when their record was horrid the first couple of months. It's a different ballgame for different organizations.

 

 

Houston also developed quite a history of that, doing it at least twice and coming VERY close last year as well.

 

The heat in Chicago takes a lot of out us in August and the first half of September. We've traditionally been a lousy second half team, holding on and treading water in 2000 and 2005 and fading in 2003, 2002 and 2006.

 

2001 is the only year we played better the last four months (without Wells, David and Thomas), and that year, the struggle was to get from 14-29 back to the .500 mark, which we did accomplish.

 

 

Minnesota and Houston play in climate-controlled parks.

[SoxAce]

Wasn't there a thread like this not too long ago?

[Mr. Showtime]

This place has turned into a car wreck. It gets so bad, but you can't turn away.

Losing an extra inning game has caused 4+ doom days threads already.

 

Do you want to start the next one or should I?

[caulfield12]

Do you want to start the next one or should I?

 

 

Last year in the second half is when KW should have "sold out" to go for broke and try to hold off the Twins, when the Red Sox and Indians were down...

 

It's too late now. The only weak spot with Detroit was Maroth and Sheffield's slow start, but they're covering up nicely, even Durbin has done well enough and they have Andrew Miller.

 

Heck, Jason Grilli is replacing Rodney adequately right now.

 

There's a reason we're last in the AL in runs for a stretch of 115 games. We're not very good...and we're getting older and older, you're starting to see signs of why KW was so hesitant with Dye and Iguchi.

 

The only really bad contract I think we'll end up with is for Contreras, through 09, unless Konerko never wakes up and returns to 2002/03 stupor form.

[Mr. Showtime]

I'm on it.

 

 

Excellent, I have work tomorrow night so I won't be around to demand a trade or firing.

[South Side Fireworks Man]

Wasn't there a thread like this not too long ago?

It's the same thread over and over.

[Flash Tizzle]

Oh God I fear how horribly KW will f*** up a firesale.

Personally, I hold June 11th as the deciding date to officially declare players for sale. Little more than a month from now. If we're seven or more games out, it may be time for Williams to make a difficult decision -- either have false belief, or restock for 2008 and beyond.

 

I just hope Williams realizes for any player traded, this organization's future relies upon the return package. Fans shouldn't be expecting only a 'B' and 'C' level prospect for Buehrle. I don't even care if people make excuses of "oh well, no one wants a rent-a-player" or "who trades (player) for (return value)." It's what needs to be done to ensure this team competes in the future.

 

And no, I don't expect a Top 10 prospect; but neither do I expect the type of players Williams acquires from scrap heaps. You know, the pitchers or positional players who have had several good seasons in the past and are currently mediocore. Or those players who, because of injury or ineffectiveness, haven't fulfilled their promise. No Gavin Floyd projects. No one who I have to hear ," Coop will fix him."

Edited May 9, 2007 by Flash Tizzle

[Mr. Showtime]

Last year in the second half is when KW should have "sold out" to go for broke and try to hold off the Twins, when the Red Sox and Indians were down...

 

It's too late now. The only weak spot with Detroit was Maroth and Sheffield's slow start, but they're covering up nicely, even Durbin has done well enough and they have Andrew Miller.

 

Heck, Jason Grilli is replacing Rodney adequately right now.

 

There's a reason we're last in the AL in runs for a stretch of 115 games. We're not very good...and we're getting older and older, you're starting to see signs of why KW was so hesitant with Dye and Iguchi.

 

The only really bad contract I think we'll end up with is for Contreras, through 09, unless Konerko never wakes up and returns to 2002/03 stupor form.

 

This team has major problems right now no doubt. I just don't believe at this point and time they're going to think about unloading talent. As I said when June 15th or shortly before rolls around and things look bleak, the rumors will start to churn out.

[caulfield12]

Excellent, I have work tomorrow night so I won't be around to demand a trade or firing.

 

 

No firings this year.

 

Bring in a new hitting instructor for 2008. That's it. I'm fine with Ozzie.

 

We're just not good...if OG was a great manager, we'd win 86-90 games with this team, but it still wouldn't be enough to make the playoffs, and we'd be a year older and a great manager would be doing incredibly well to get to .500 without Buehrle, Crede, Dye and Iguchi, and probably Uribe too.

 

 

 

Personally, I hold June 11th as the deciding date to officially declare players for sale. Little more than a month from now. If we're seven or more games out, it may be time for Williams to make a difficult decision -- either have false belief, or restock for 2008 and beyond.

 

I just hope Williams realizes for any player traded, this organization's future relies upon the return package. Fans shouldn't be expecting only a 'B' and 'C' level prospect for Buehrle. I don't even care if people make excuses of "oh well, no one wants a rent-a-player" or "who trades (player) for (return value)." It's what needs to be done to ensure this team competes in the future.

 

And no, I don't expect a Top 10 prospect; but neither do I expect the type of players Williams acquires from scrap heaps. You know, the pitchers or positional players who have had several good seasons in the past and are currently mediocore. Or those players who, because of injury or ineffectiveness, haven't fulfilled their promise. No Gavin Floyd projects. No one who I have to hear ," Coop will fix him."

 

 

If the Tigers gave up the now injured Humberto Sanchez, who was one of their 3 best pitching prospects, along with a couple of others, to get a 38 Sheffield....we should be able to get something comparable for Dye, especially if KW predicates the deal on that team working out an extension as a condition of the trade. We wouldn't have traded for Garcia had we not known we were going to be able to keep him for 3 more years.

[Flash Tizzle]

That is undoubtedly what I worry about the most. If this team is just close enough to "compete", but just far enough to claim firesale, we could be f***ed for a long time. I pray that we are either leading, behind 10+ games, or management declares a firesale at 5+ games out. Part of me feels like it's going to take 12+ games out for this management to declare a firesale. Stubborness seems to be a plenty...

We're not necessarily in trouble if such stubborness persists. Yes, it's not an ideal situation; but look at it like this: of Buehrle, Dye, Iguchi, there's probably two Type A compensation picks and one Type B. That's five picks with two possibly in the first round, depending upon the teams signing whichever player(s).

 

I'm sure someone will say, "that doesn't help us now;" and it doesn't. The benefit to this is having an opportunity to rebuild the system. I'd rather have prospects further along obtained at the deadline, but if management is delusional and believes 7 games is possible to make up in this division, it's not the end of the world.

 

Don't forget as well there's the likelihood one additional starter and perhaps Crede is traded in the offseason.

[sircaffey]

We're not necessarily in trouble if such stubborness persists. Yes, it's not an ideal situation; but look at it like this: of Buehrle, Dye, Iguchi, there's probably two Type A compensation picks and one Type B. That's five picks with two possibly in the first round, depending upon the teams signing whichever player(s).

 

I'm sure someone will say, "that doesn't help us now;" and it doesn't. The benefit to this is having an opportunity to rebuild the system. I'd rather have prospects further along obtained at the deadline, but if management is delusional and believes 7 games is possible to make up in this division, it's not the end of the world.

 

Don't forget as well there's the likelihood one additional starter and perhaps Crede is traded in the offseason.

 

This is the Chicago White Sox. We don't draft well, and we don't develop our own talent. Those picks will likely amount to nothing.

[SoxFan1]

If this team is 10+ games out next month, I wouldn't be too upset with a fire sale, but I hope KW actually gets some real quality in return. It's sort of intriguing as well. KW needs to look at Oakland and Milwaukee. Rebuild how they did.

[CWSGuy406]

The heat in Chicago takes a lot of out us in August and the first half of September. We've traditionally been a lousy second half team, holding on and treading water in 2000 and 2005 and fading in 2003, 2002 and 2006.

 

2001 is the only year we played better the last four months (without Wells, David and Thomas), and that year, the struggle was to get from 14-29 back to the .500 mark, which we did accomplish.

Minnesota and Houston play in climate-controlled parks.

 

The Gospel According to Dusty.

 

Thanks for that. Probably the dumbest thing I've read here in quite a while.

[caulfield12]

The Gospel According to Dusty.

 

Thanks for that. Probably the dumbest thing I've read here in quite a while.

 

 

From 2000-2006, why have we only played better in the 2nd half of the season once?

 

I want to hear YOUR explanation.

 

We're just chokers 86% of the time? That seems like a trend to me.

Maybe it's global warming.

[witesoxfan]

They also had to catch only two teams, we will have to pass three, in Detroit, Cleveland and Minnesota.

 

Dude, look at the f***ing numbers and data from year's past; the Twins had to pass three too. They were 12-18 at game 30, behind Cleveland, who was 16-14, and Chicago and Detroit, who I didn't even bother to look up because the Sox had 17 wins in April and the Tigers were good too.

 

And if you try and tell me that Minnesota this year and Cleveland last year aren't comparable teams, I'll call you crazy as hell. Nathan hasn't looked like 04-06 Nathan really at all, the rest of the bullpen has been pretty hittable, and aside from Santana, they don't have one starter who's better than league average, and three of them should have ERAs around 5.00 at the end of the year (if they were to remain in the rotation the rest of the year, which just simply is not possible).

 

The problem is the lack of talent on the White Sox roster, and how injury prone Thome, who is probably the most valuable player to his team than anyone else in the AL, really appears to be at this point. Add to the fact that there is no depth to the bench, this team still won't be able to hit LHP, and Ozzie Guillen is one of the worst game managers in the league (I've never seen as many lineups this year that don't make sense as I have ever, and he still can't manage a bullpen), and the Sox just have little to no chance.

[caulfield12]

If this team is 10+ games out next month, I wouldn't be too upset with a fire sale, but I hope KW actually gets some real quality in return. It's sort of intriguing as well. KW needs to look at Oakland and Milwaukee. Rebuild how they did.

 

 

Oakland rebuilt with getting a very good pitcher in Haren in return for Mulder. Some of their moves, like signing Loaiza and overpaying, weren't so smart. They really could use Bonderman about right now. Blanton is serviceable but not more than a 4/5. Kennedy and Gaudin are castoffs from other organizations.

 

The only way they can do any damage is for Harden and Haren to be healthy all season...but BB doesn't believe that will happen, so he's trying to get the highest possible return for Harden, but I don't think anyone will be dumb enough to bite.

 

They haven't really replaced the firepower of Giambi, Tejada, Damon, Dye and Hernandez...they're a team that heavily relies on starting pitching, clutch hitting, OBP and the back of their bullpen.

 

Buck looks like he MIGHT be a decent player, but Crosby really struggled with injuries and the sophomore jinx, and Chavez fell off as well. Bradley was a high-risk/high-reward move that KW would have prided himself in, but they have too many complementary players on offense like Kotsay, Ellis, Johnson, Kendall, etc.

 

Just not enough firepower without Piazza's bat in the middle of the order.

 

If you want to look a model organizations, you need to look at Florida, Minnesota, Milwaukee and the Angels.

[chimpy2121]

Man, first I hear wait til the weather heats up...now I hear it gets too hot in Chicago. s***, what's next?

[witesoxfan]

Houston also developed quite a history of that, doing it at least twice and coming VERY close last year as well.

 

The heat in Chicago takes a lot of out us in August and the first half of September. We've traditionally been a lousy second half team, holding on and treading water in 2000 and 2005 and fading in 2003, 2002 and 2006.

 

And WTF?

 

There's a problem apparently with a .553 winning percentage, which is what the Sox put up in 2005. It's not quite .663, but jesus that apparently sucks now a days.

 

They didn't have a shot in 2004, and if they DIDN'T play .600 ball in the second half of 2003, they would have won 75 games.

 

In 2002, their second half brought them to a .500 record.

 

The only thing you can even contest at this point is that the Sox are a lousy second half team under Ozzie Guillen, because under Manuel they finished above .500 in the second half every year this decade (and I didn't bother to look in the 90s, but I assume it wasn't bad), and even that is a pretty small sample size.

[caulfield12]

Dude, look at the f***ing numbers and data from year's past; the Twins had to pass three too. They were 12-18 at game 30, behind Cleveland, who was 16-14, and Chicago and Detroit, who I didn't even bother to look up because the Sox had 17 wins in April and the Tigers were good too.

 

And if you try and tell me that Minnesota this year and Cleveland last year aren't comparable teams, I'll call you crazy as hell. Nathan hasn't looked like 04-06 Nathan really at all, the rest of the bullpen has been pretty hittable, and aside from Santana, they don't have one starter who's better than league average, and three of them should have ERAs around 5.00 at the end of the year (if they were to remain in the rotation the rest of the year, which just simply is not possible).

 

The problem is the lack of talent on the White Sox roster, and how injury prone Thome, who is probably the most valuable player to his team than anyone else in the AL, really appears to be at this point. Add to the fact that there is no depth to the bench, this team still won't be able to hit LHP, and Ozzie Guillen is one of the worst game managers in the league (I've never seen as many lineups this year that don't make sense as I have ever, and he still can't manage a bullpen), and the Sox just have little to no chance.

 

 

I would say yes, except the Twins have owned us every year from 2001-2007, with the lone exception of 2005.

 

Especially in their house...we don't have to face Santana and we still very easily will be swept out of there.

 

And Minnesota always has a way of winning the big games in August and September.

 

So the way I look at Minnesota is as a team that's so fundamentally solid, they're not going to pull a midsummer fade like the Indians. They have four starting pitchers in the minors who will end up shuting out the White Sox in Garza, Baker, Slowey and Perkins. Hunter's in a salary drive, and Cuddyer, Morneau and Mauer are always dangerous in the middle of that line-up. And they have the best bullpen in the league again. They're going to win 85-88 games and finish ahead of the Sox.

 

Cleveland was pythagorean 89-73, but they ended up at 78-84 due to their abysmal pen.

[caulfield12]

And WTF?

 

There's a problem apparently with a .553 winning percentage, which is what the Sox put up in 2005. It's not quite .663, but jesus that apparently sucks now a days.

 

They didn't have a shot in 2004, and if they DIDN'T play .600 ball in the second half of 2003, they would have won 75 games.

 

In 2002, their second half brought them to a .500 record.

 

The only thing you can even contest at this point is that the Sox are a lousy second half team under Ozzie Guillen, because under Manuel they finished above .500 in the second half every year this decade (and I didn't bother to look in the 90s, but I assume it wasn't bad), and even that is a pretty small sample size.

 

 

2004, I'll give you the injuries to Magglio and Thomas.

 

2003, yes, they played well in the second half...but they finished losing 10 of 18 and 5 of those 6 losses were to the Twins (1-5 in the games that counted).

 

We did go from 45-49 at the break to 12 games over, but we choked.

 

2002, they traded half of their veterans...but the only time they played well, it was in the first six weeks of the season when Lofton was really hot. I think they were 22-14 in May and then they treaded water for the rest of the season.

 

2000, we only played 5 games over .500 in the 2nd half, after starting out 55-32.

 

2005, we were only 8 games over .500 after going out 57-29.

[witesoxfan]

I would say yes, except the Twins have owned us every year from 2001-2007, with the lone exception of 2005.

 

Especially in their house...we don't have to face Santana and we still very easily will be swept out of there.

 

And Minnesota always has a way of winning the big games in August and September.

 

So the way I look at Minnesota is as a team that's so fundamentally solid, they're not going to pull a midsummer fade like the Indians. They have four starting pitchers in the minors who will end up shuting out the White Sox in Garza, Baker, Slowey and Perkins. Hunter's in a salary drive, and Cuddyer, Morneau and Mauer are always dangerous in the middle of that line-up. And they have the best bullpen in the league again. They're going to win 85-88 games and finish ahead of the Sox.

 

Cleveland was pythagorean 89-73, but they ended up at 78-84 due to their abysmal pen.

 

I'd be surprised if Baker is better than mediocre if he comes up this year, and Perkins is in the Twins bullpen right now. The only starting he's going to be doing is spot starting. They only have Garza and Slowey this year, and they'll both be good, but they have to get them in the rotation first.

 

And I'm really not sure their bullpen is the best in the league. Right now, perhaps, but I really think the Indians will wise up and will get rid of Borowski while putting Cabrera or Betancourt in the closer's role. And if that happens, and their rotation actually stays healthy, you're looking at a bullpen of something like Betancourt, Cabrera, Hernandez, Fultz, Mujica, Mastny, and Carmona (or take two of three from Mujica, Mastny, and Carmona). If not, Borowski will get demoted to the long man job soon enough and the pen should be pretty damn good up and down. The only two mediocre pitchers in that pen are really Hernandez and Borowski or perhaps Mujica if Borowski is DFAed/traded.

 

Minnesota, plain and simply, has more potential problems than that, as I really don't like Dennys Reyes (one good year in his entire career just doesn't do it for me), Matt Guerrier allows baserunners at a pretty damn high clip, Jesse Crain is anybody's guess, Joe Nathan has looked pretty s***ty at times, and Rincon's peripherals have gotten worse 2 years in a row. We'll see what happens, but Cleveland really looks like they have a pen that will take over the role of game's best pen this year.

 

2004, I'll give you the injuries to Magglio and Thomas.

 

2003, yes, they played well in the second half...but they finished losing 10 of 18 and 5 of those 6 losses were to the Twins (1-5 in the games that counted).

 

We did go from 45-49 at the break to 12 games over, but we choked.

 

2002, they traded half of their veterans...but the only time they played well, it was in the first six weeks of the season when Lofton was really hot. I think they were 22-14 in May and then they treaded water for the rest of the season.

 

2000, we only played 5 games over .500 in the 2nd half, after starting out 55-32.

 

2005, we were only 8 games over .500 after going out 57-29.

 

2003 wasn't the second half, it was September when they didn't play well. There's a huge difference.

 

In 2000 they backed into the division, but they got lucky as it was. Cleveland had 13 different guys start games and 32 different pitchers enter a game for them. If not for that, they very easily could have won the division.

 

And for the record, that .553 mark the Sox put up in the second half of 2005 would have netted them about 89-90 wins over the course of a 162 game season. There's no way you're convincing me they sucked. They had a horrendous August and that is it.

[DBAHO]

Baker's done with the Twinkies. Has the same relationship with Gardenhire that B-Mac had with Ozzie.

 

And things will get worse for Minnesota when Santana leaves. It's not a given that Liriano is going to be the same when he comes back from his surgery as well.

[Flash Tizzle]

And things will get worse for Minnesota when Santana leaves. It's not a given that Liriano is going to be the same when he comes back from his surgery as well.

Santana isn't leaving Minnesota for only draft picks. Either they're retaining him beyond 2008 for a backloaded deal or he'll begin next season on another ballclub. I know teams are willing to let players go for draft picks, but you can't do that with Santana. Comments I've read from Twins fans in the past seem to echo that sentiment.

 

Now, while it may appear foolish to trade him before the beginning of next season (especially considering Liriano's status), if there's no hope of negotiating a long term deal Minnesota may as well trade him. Just imagine what would be necessary to land him. You're talking about a team's top two/three prospects. Look at any National League ballclub. For example -- wouldn't it be worth Minnesota's while to acquire Elbert/Kershaw/additonal piece? You may be losing a perennial Cy-Young, but you're replacing a phenomenal pitcher with two very good pitchers.

Edited May 9, 2007 by Flash Tizzle

[caulfield12]

Baker's done with the Twinkies. Has the same relationship with Gardenhire that B-Mac had with Ozzie.

 

And things will get worse for Minnesota when Santana leaves. It's not a given that Liriano is going to be the same when he comes back from his surgery as well.

 

 

Yes, but a young/affordable pitcher who throws 95/96 is worth a heckuva lot more in this market than a 25 year old outfielder whose career average is in the low 200's. They held onto JD Durbin too long, as well as Michael Restovich...they'll get a better return this time around.

 

I'm sure the Yankees would take him, he pitched well against them last year in New York.

[southsider2k5]

Yeah, now these were the over-reaction type threads I had been missing!