5/24 Games

[witesoxfan]

Last year was a numerical fluke offensively, the regression to the means this year was inevitable for Joe. And he has a bad back. And he's due to get a big payday after next year. There was no reason to keep him.

 

Regression to the means was inevitable for a 29 year old 3Bman who has improved his power each of the last 4 seasons. riiiiiiiiight

[CWSGuy406]

Regression to the means was inevitable for a 29 year old 3Bman who has improved his power each of the last 4 seasons. riiiiiiiiight

 

Yeah, really. It certainly wasn't a "fluke". Fluke would imply that Joe did something abormaly extraordinary, when in reality, he was the same player. His walk rate didn't change a whole lot. His IsO went up about twenty points from the previous season, but that doesn't strike me as a particularly large jump. I don't have the numbers in front of me, but I'd take a couple of guesses w/r/t last year -- his BAPIP was up from previous years, and more of the flyballs he was hitting went deeper and thus, out of the yard (61 extra basehits last year -- his previous high was 52).

 

But last year really shouldn't have been unexpected. He's in his prime years and was improving the past couple seasons (79 OPS+ in 2004, 96 in '05, 108 in '06). Will 2006 prove to be his peak year? I'd guess yes, but if he has surgery and comes back just about fully healed, I think he can put up a few 100-110 OPS+ years.

 

And I didn't hear a whole lot of people clammoring for Crede to be traded this winter. Maybe I'm wrong, but I'd like to see someone who posted in February that not dealing Crede was going to bite the Sox right in the ass. Plus, I don't think Fields was ready in April. He may not be ready now -- he's just about getting there, I'll say that, but I don't know if it would have been the best idea to have him up on April 1st. It wouldn't surprise me at all to if Fields was putting up a Kevin Kouzmanoff line right now (.217/.285/.400) if he was up here since the season's start.