New Direction for Organization

[caulfield12]

I think this is very premature, but if we fail to either make the playoffs or come out of this season with the prospects to make a run in the near future, it is time for Kenny to go. This organizational has done a horrendous job of bringing in amateur talent either through the draft or through international free agency and that all falls on the shoulders of Kenny Williams. I pray that Steinbrenner will fire Cashman so the Sox would have a shot, their minor league organization has been depleted over the years by some of Georges moves but it is a strength again for that organization. Either that or whoever is running the show in Arizona, they have also done a good job bringing in Owings, Quentin, Gonzales, Young, Callaspo, and others.

 

And if you get rid of Kenny you have to give the new guy an option to hire his own guy to manage the team, if he decides to stick with Ozzie, thats fine, if not he should bring in a guy that he trusts to get the job done.

 

1. JR is loyal to a fault and won't fire KW without giving him a shot to rebuild.

2. Cashman is like Phil Jackson, I don't think he can win without the biggest payroll or best player

3. The White Sox have never had budgets that allow for mistakes the magnitude of a Carl Pavano, Randy Johnson or Kevin Brown. One mistake financially of that scope and we're a .500 team for 2-3 years.

 

If we're going to give anyone millions of dollars, it should be the Twins' Director of Scouting and Director of Minor League Operations.

 

That would be Jim Rantz, Mike Radcliff and possibly Rob Antony (no relation to Mark/Marc)

Edited June 1, 2007 by caulfield12

[StrangeSox]

Sometimes managers get more out of their teams than they should. Sometimes they get less.

 

While this surely will surprise White Sox fans, Ozzie Guillen is a plus-3 this season, which means he has done a good job to hang around .500 with a team that has issues.

 

The only other managers who have helped out their team as much, according to the Impact Factor, are Arizona's Bob Melvin and Tampa Bay's Joe Maddon.

 

The managers having the worst years are the Yankees' Joe Torre and the Cubs' Lou Piniella, at minus-6 and minus-5, respectively.

 

It's a surprise Torre's moves aren't working, as he—like the Braves' Cox—should be on his way to the Hall of Fame. Both Torre and Cox have career Impact Ratings of plus-36, the best in history. That's better than any manager enshrined in Cooperstown.

 

Among those guys, Bill "Deacon" McKechnie, who won pennants with three of the four National League teams he managed, is a plus-29, and famed Yankees manager Miller Huggins is a plus-26.

 

No one's likely to catch Cox and Torre anytime soon either. Tony La Russa checks in at plus-21. Minnesota's Ron Gardenhire is plus-19. Dusty Baker was a plus-18 after winning with the 2003 Cubs but slid to plus-8 before being replaced by Piniella (surprisingly a career minus-4 after the horrible start this year).

 

from chicagosports.com (Phil Rogers)

 

I did a quick tabulation on the rest of Guillen's career...

 

2004=-1

2005=+8

2006=+2

2007=+3

 

Overall=+12

 

It surprises me because I have no idea what this means or how they can possibly hope to quantify something like a manager's "impact factor."

[gosox41]

KW has had the highest payroll in the AL central every year since 2001 and has won one division. He needs to go, its his time. Clean out the organization, its clear we are not headed in a great direction. Our minor leagues are horrible and our major league team is old and slow, worst possible combo. Promote Rick Hahn who is a more numbers guy and not a feel guy and lets see where he takes us. And Ozzie just needs to go, plain and simple.

 

 

How quickyl the tide has turned. Even I'm not that much against KW as I used to be. I see the logic of some of his moves and can't complain about most of his trades of late--though that Garcia trade still pisses me off.

 

 

Bob

 

We are ONE GAME under .500 with over 100 games to play

 

Our hitting ALL AROUND has vastly underachieved so far

 

The pitching is prolly gonna be like this all year.. I dont think they are performing over what they can do or under, the bullpen will prolly shape up soon anyways it was apparent they werent going to dominate as long as they did as it is..

 

I wish everyone would just relax here, jesus, yeah its tough as hell to watch this but we are not out of anything.. The hitting HAS to come around or we are toast, I cant see us being last in offense for this whole season..

 

If we are 10 under and way out of it in July blow it up, but RIGHT now? Gimme a f***ing break

 

 

I agree. This panicking is ridiculous. People need to chill out around here. This team won 90 games last year and made some improvements on paper. It's up to the players to perform. Injuries have hurt us.

 

 

Funny how in all the complaining about the lack of hitting, PK gets a free ride.

 

 

Bob

[GoSox05]

Wow. You'd almost think that you were on a I hate the sox message board.

 

How about we just end the team and knock down the stadium.

 

Its seems like everyone on here would be happy than.

[caulfield12]

Bulls***.

 

BTW, "your" =/= "you are.

 

Why are Kenny and Ozzie the only options here? KW puts the pieces in place, and it's Ozzie's and the coaches' jobs to motivate an ensure the players play to the best of their abilities.

 

Is it KW's fault Konerko, Crede, Iguchi, and Dye aren't hitting? No.

How could have KW improve this situation before the season started? He should've traded Crede at his peak value along with his slimy agent and back concerns. I'm holding that against him. You could argue Iguchi and Dye as well, but they are cheap, soon to be free agents who can net us draft picks. Crede can't do that after this season.

 

Is it KW's fault Erstad is a below average hitter? No, but he should not have signed him. Ozzie would have never had the chance to overplay him (Guillen's fault) and let him make a ton of outs if KW never signed the guy. I'm holding them both accountable.

 

Molina being an automatic out for a month and a half? That's Guillen's fault.

 

Bullpen? Mostly KW getting too young and cheap, but Ozzie certainly has not been managing them to the best of his abilities.

 

There is no cut and dry answer (well, maybe Walker if they want to send a message) at this point in the season.

 

 

Who would you have played in CF INSTEAD of Erstad? Anderson? Sweeney? Terrero? And you're SURE Anderson would have done a much better job than last year, and this is based on what, besides speculation?

 

How would you manage Sisco, Aardsma and MacDougal differently right now? Even Masset, it seems the best way to "manage" him is to make him a starter, but that doesn't really help the pen. Is Logan now a proven reliever? Nobody knows what to expect out of anyone besides Thornton and Jenks.

 

Molina is 100% KW's fault. Why do you think Ozzie never played Molina, and always brought AJ into those games in the late innings? Because he HAD to play him once every two weeks, or AJ would die a slow death in August and September. Personally, I would have gone for Wiki Gonzalez for the offense, but he's a lousy defensive catcher, not that this is anything new with Hall now on the team.

 

We're without Pods, Sisco, Erstad and Ozuna, as well as Thome for a major stretch?

 

What are KW's answers to those problems? Terrero, Andy Gonzalez, Owens, Sweeney and Dewon Day. How are these "non-options" also Guillen's fault? According to the Impact Factor of measuring success above and below expected Pythagorean, Guillen was great in 05, above average in 06 and 07 and one game under expected in 04. Maybe KW should name himself manager and show everyone how it's done?

 

C'mon. And if you really believe that OG and not KW are down on Anderson, doesn't Williams have the ultimate decision-making power there? You can't tell me KW is intimidated by Guillen and would deliberately not use a player that could help the team win, can you?

[Wedge]

It surprises me because I have no idea what this means or how they can possibly hope to quantify something like a manager's "impact factor."

 

There is such a thing as the pythagorean index. Your winning percentage should be roughly

 

RS^2 / (RS^2 + RA^2)

 

Where RS is Runs Scored and RA is Runs Against. This method has been remarkably accurate. What it is saying is that the 2005 team won 8 more games than it should have, according to the Pythagorean Index.

[StrangeSox]

There is such a thing as the pythagorean index. Your winning percentage should be roughly

 

RS^2 / (RS^2 + RA^2)

 

Where RS is Runs Scored and RA is Runs Against. This method has been remarkably accurate. What it is saying is that the 2005 team won 8 more games than it should have, according to the Pythagorean Index.

 

So Guillen gets the credit for those 8 games, and not a pitching staff that managed to hold razor-thin leads?

 

My point is that there's a certain combination, and something like a manager's "impact factor" isn't really quantifiable.

 

Edit: What sort of margin of error does this method produce? 5% would be 8 games over the course of a season. I don't buy this as a tool to evaluate managers at all. There are way, way too many factors.

Edited June 1, 2007 by StrangeSox

[caulfield12]

There is such a thing as the pythagorean index. Your winning percentage should be roughly

 

RS^2 / (RS^2 + RA^2)

 

Where RS is Runs Scored and RA is Runs Against. This method has been remarkably accurate. What it is saying is that the 2005 team won 8 more games than it should have, according to the Pythagorean Index.

 

For reference, here's Gardenhire

 

2002=+8

 

2003=+5

 

2004=+5

 

2005=-1

 

2006=+3

 

For comparison,

 

2003 Manuel=-2

2002 Manuel=-5

2001 Manuel=+2

2000 Manuel=+3

1999 Manuel=+3

1998 Manuel=+5

 

1997 Bevington=+4

1996 Bevington=-5

 

1995 Lamont=-4

1994 Lamont=-2

1993 Lamont=+2

1992 Lamont=E

 

1991 Torborg=-2

1990 Torborg=+7

1989 Torborg=-6

 

1988 Fregosi=+4

1987 Fregosi=-4

 

1986 LaRussa/Rader/Fregosi=-3

1985 LaRussa=+2

1984 LaRussa=-1

1983 LaRussa=+3

1982 LaRussa=-2

1981 LaRussa=-5

1980 LaRussa=+5

[hitlesswonder]

I was expecting more creativity from KW. hated the Garcia trade, as he was our best chip to go ahead and add another talent to the major league team. When you look at how much the Astros gave up to get Jennings, I really think we could have gotten more than a good, but not great prospect, in Gio and the crap that is Gavin Floyd. I honestly think Gio's best value to this team would be to trade him again, as his numbers are skewed by pitching in Birmingham and padding his stats against a few real bad hitting teams.

 

I agree. If the Sox had any chance to trade some of their young pitching prospects for a young 1 or 2 hitter, KW needed to do it. Instead, Williams got all freaked out about the market for pitching and just accepted the worst OF in baseball. There's no excuse for going into a season with 2 .650 OPS guys starting in the outfield, because when other players underperform there's no way LF and CF can pick up the slack.

 

The bold move Williams needed to do last offseason was trade either Dye or Konerko. Maybe PK has a no-trade clasue but If he could have shipped Konerko to the Yankees, Angels, or Orioles for younger players it would have gotten the Sox out from under a bad contract very gracefully. Trading Dye would have been selling very high, and watching his defensive drop off, it's clear that was really the move that should have been made. An MVP-like RF playing for that cheap would have brought something good in return. Of course, that's all easy to say in hindsight.

 

As for Gonzalez, I completely agree. Just because he's the Sox best pitching prospect doesn't mean he's a good prospect. He has a significant problem with home-runs that was exposed in Reading and is hidden in Birmingham. The Sox should sell high because in all probability Gonzalez will fall off the prospect map when he has to pitch in Charlotte.

[Balta1701]

The bold move Williams needed to do last offseason was trade either Dye or Konerko. Maybe PK has a no-trade clasue but If he could have shipped Konerko to the Yankees, Angels, or Orioles for younger players it would have gotten the Sox out from under a bad contract very gracefully. Trading Dye would have been selling very high, and watching his defensive drop off, it's clear that was really the move that should have been made. An MVP-like RF playing for that cheap would have brought something good in return. Of course, that's all easy to say in hindsight.

Konerko has a partial no-trade clause, preventing him from being traded to something like 10 teams without his permission.

[Wedge]

So Guillen gets the credit for those 8 games, and not a pitching staff that managed to hold razor-thin leads?

 

My point is that there's a certain combination, and something like a manager's "impact factor" isn't really quantifiable.

 

Edit: What sort of margin of error does this method produce? 5% would be 8 games over the course of a season. I don't buy this as a tool to evaluate managers at all. There are way, way too many factors.

 

I found this:

 

Exponent Error

2.00 4.126

1.90 4.044

1.89 4.041

1.88 4.040

1.87 4.039

1.86 4.040

1.85 4.041

1.84 4.044

1.83 4.048

1.82 4.052

 

In this

 

So standard error is roughly 4 games. Still, to end up on the plus side over quite a few seasons indicates that Guillen is doing something right.

[Wedge]

Ok, so as of today, Ozzie is 296-239 (.553). His RS/RA is 2674/2502.

 

Using the "lower standard error" exponent of 1.82, his pythagorean suggests he should have won ~283.66 games in that time. Hence, he is +12 through 3 1/3 years. That's not even including the playoffs.

 

+12 is well beyond the error.

Edited June 1, 2007 by Wedge

[Chisoxfn]

Wouldn't that suggest that he must do something right?

[Wedge]

Wouldn't that suggest that he must do something right?

 

DOES NOT COMPUTE

[hogan873]

I want to beleive that it is too soon to start talking about firing anybody or having a fire sale, but I don't have a lot of confidence in what I see out there. Ozzie seems to be losing it, or maybe it's always been gone and he's had better teams to work with in the past. Either way, Ozzie should go. We need a fresh start.

[BearSox]

Joe Girardi please....... oh wait, he will only go for the Yanks or Cubs...

[WCSox]

Konerko has a partial no-trade clause, preventing him from being traded to something like 10 teams without his permission.

 

Trading Paulie would be a big mistake, IMO. Since we're almost certianly not going to re-sign them, I'd deal Dye and Buehrle at the deadline if this team is still playing like this. I'd also consider dealing Crede, who is only under our control for another year and is still having back problems. Those three would shave off $20 million in payroll and net a good number of young players and/or prospects.

[RME JICO]

KW has had the highest payroll in the AL central every year since 2001 and has won one division. He needs to go, its his time.

 

World Series Championships in AL Central since 1995 (Wild Card Era):

 

Sox - 1

Tigers - 0

Indians - 0

Twins - 0

Royals - 0

 

I would wait to see where we are at until July 15th. At that point if we are 8+ out, then I would start to consider some organizational moves.

 

The Twins have had a solid organization for years, yet they have not sniffed the World Series since 1991.

[WCSox]

KW has had the highest payroll in the AL central every year since 2001 and has won one division. He needs to go, its his time.

 

My God, I need a drink. Some of these posts are giving me a headache.

 

(1) Why shouldn't the Sox have the highest payroll in the AL Central? Aren't they the largest sports market in the divisoin?

 

(2) How many other AL Central teams have won a World Series in the past decade?

 

(3) Do the names Dye, Garcia, Contreras, El Duque, Jenks, Cotts, Politte, Hermanson, and Podsednik mean anything to you? They should, as they played major roles in the Sox winning two years ago. They were also all acquired by Kenny Williams. Needs to go, my ass.

Edited June 1, 2007 by WCSox

[mmmmmbeeer]

When I was up home in Oswego last weekend I had an epiphany of sorts. I had just finished watching the Sunday TB game and was really pissed off. I was telling my dad, a Sox fan all his life, about the mistakes in the game. I was pretty pissed off and he just well, wasn't. He told me how he used to watch every game and his mood would depend on how the Sox did. He used to be the same way my brother and I are about this team. Then he tells me that '05 changed everything. He said that they've now won a championship and he was alive for it. After all those years of waiting and being so committed to this franchise, it paid off on Oct 26, 2005. Since that time if the Sox lose, he just goes about his business.

 

This team is currently 1 game under .500 in the toughest division in baseball. Are they playing up to their abilities? No. Could KW have made some moves for OF this winter? Sure. Is Oz one of the most mindbogglingly poor in-game managers we've ever seen? Yes. But ya know what, they're only 1 game under. They've given us a reason to watch baseball into August every year since 2000. If we had some Mariners fans, or Baltimore or Texas fans on here, they'd be laughing hysterically at these overreactions.

 

IMO, an owner isn't justified in firing his GM when his team is 1 game under .500 with all the injuries we've had. A GM isn't justified in firing his manager when his team is 1 game under .500. Even George freakin' Steinbrenner didn't fire anyone when his $200M Yankees were what, 10 games under!?!? Listen to yourselves. Mistakes have been made but it's not THAT bad.

[beck72]

Right now, the sox are 3 games back of a playoff spot. Despite their scoring 100 less runs than Detroit, and have almost 50 runs less than even the Twins. Even though the sox should have a far worse record based on some horrible, horrible games [which probably contributes to the doom and gloom], IMO, they don't need a dramatic re-organization.

 

If anyone would have guessed the sox would be last in the AL in runs scored, and like 27th in all of baseball, and last in almost all offensive categories, no one would have believed it. And few options were out there that would have helped them when only 1 guy in the lineup is hitting at least their career norm. No team is going to replace 8 regulars who can't even hit their weight. That the sox are even .500 hitting so bad is amazing.

 

I agree the sox need some new blood in on offense. Yet that seems to be plan B. Plan A was getting young pitching to compete year in and year out. That plan seems to be going well, with Danks, Masset, Gio, Russell, Egbert coming on.

 

Fields and Sweeney should be regulars in 2008. The sox can work them into the bottom of the lineup if they get a guy like Ichiro for leadoff. All in all, the sox aren't near as bad [this year or in the next few years] as everyone makes them out to be.

[maggsmaggs]

Right now, the sox are 3 games back of a playoff spot. Despite their scoring 100 less runs than Detroit, and have almost 50 runs less than even the Twins. Even though the sox should have a far worse record based on some horrible, horrible games [which probably contributes to the doom and gloom], IMO, they don't need a dramatic re-organization.

 

If anyone would have guessed the sox would be last in the AL in runs scored, and like 27th in all of baseball, and last in almost all offensive categories, no one would have believed it. And few options were out there that would have helped them when only 1 guy in the lineup is hitting at least their career norm. No team is going to replace 8 regulars who can't even hit their weight. That the sox are even .500 hitting so bad is amazing.

 

I agree the sox need some new blood in on offense. Yet that seems to be plan B. Plan A was getting young pitching to compete year in and year out. That plan seems to be going well, with Danks, Masset, Gio, Russell, Egbert coming on.

 

Fields and Sweeney should be regulars in 2008. The sox can work them into the bottom of the lineup if they get a guy like Ichiro for leadoff. All in all, the sox aren't near as bad [this year or in the next few years] as everyone makes them out to be.

I admire your optimism, but I see us going nowhere. Buehrle isn't going to be back. Count has got maybe one more good year in him. Vaz is overpaid and inconsistent, his 3.95 ERA will be back around 4.5 soon enough. Our bullpen has got a great closer, but nothing else and nothing on the horizon. We have one ML ready prospect, and even that's debatable in Fields. Sweeney needs to get a lot stronger, ALOT. Anderson is done in this organization cause OZ f***ed him over. He is prolly our most talented minor leaguer and we screwed with him. Gio is a good looking starter, but he has injury concerns and strength issues, so he is prolly a second or third starter. Russell still needs a lot of work, so does Massett. Egbert does good in AA, but that is big ballpark he pitches in with not great stuff, he is nothing more than a backend rotation guy if that no matter what Heads tells you. Our line up features old players with arrows pointing down on everybody. Juan has peaked, Tad has, Crede clearly has, Konerko god bless what he did for us the past couple years, but he is old; Thome is old, Dye has lost it, AJ is just not a good hitter anymore, Walker has hurt him bigtime; Erstad is well nothing. We are not in a good position. Organization talent wise (combining both the majors and minors) we are somewhere between 20-30.

[TitoMB345]

We are ONE GAME under .500 with over 100 games to play

 

Our hitting ALL AROUND has vastly underachieved so far

 

The pitching is prolly gonna be like this all year.. I dont think they are performing over what they can do or under, the bullpen will prolly shape up soon anyways it was apparent they werent going to dominate as long as they did as it is..

 

I wish everyone would just relax here, jesus, yeah its tough as hell to watch this but we are not out of anything.. The hitting HAS to come around or we are toast, I cant see us being last in offense for this whole season..

 

If we are 10 under and way out of it in July blow it up, but RIGHT now? Gimme a f***ing break

Okay, and in order to get back into playoff contention we have to go about .650+ the rest of the way. Do you HONESTLY think this team has any chance? f***, look at our schedule in July and August. This team is toasted more than Contreras's fastball.

[WhiteSoxfan1986]

Joe Girardi please....... oh wait, he will only go for the Yanks or Cubs...

 

I don't want Girardi near our ballclub.