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Realistic Best/Worst Case Scenerios for 2007?


rangercal

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The best case is that the Sox unload as many veterans as they can and turn them into several ELITE prospects.

 

The Sox have too many holes to become really good in the next year or two without either gaining a quantity of top prospects that pan out or spending a ton of money in the free agent market.

 

Considering the state of their farm system,the Sox may need to do both in order to have much future success. And, what are the odds of that happening ?

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Best case: Bats catch fire, pitching improves, serious WS contender.

Why? We've been hitting the ball harder as of late. Starters have been pretty good and consistent. Bullpen has been bad, and I think KW will pick someone up. It's a stretch, but it could happen. It only takes 1 big break to get this team rolling. Besides, I'm a Sox fan and I'll always hope for the best.

 

Worst case: Baseball Prospectus is right.

Why? By no means will KW have a firesale. It's not in him, it's not like him to do it. It just won't happen while Williams is GM. Maybe the hitting does heat up, but with our luck, the starting pitching will go down the s***ter.

Edited by SoxFan1
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QUOTE(SoxFan1 @ Jun 13, 2007 -> 02:33 PM)
Best case: Bats catch fire, pitching improves, serious WS contender.

Why? We've been hitting the ball harder as of late. Starters have been pretty good and consistent. Bullpen has been bad, and I think KW will pick someone up. It's a stretch, but it could happen. It only takes 1 big break to get this team rolling. Besides, I'm a Sox fan and I'll always hope for the best.

 

Worst case: Baseball Prospectus is right.

Why? By no means will KW have a firesale. It's not in him, it's not like him to do it. It just won't happen while Williams is GM. Maybe the hitting does heat up, but with our luck, the starting pitching will go down the s***ter.

 

exactly what I voted. It's hard for me to believe it can get any worse. Who knows though.

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QUOTE(SoxFan1 @ Jun 13, 2007 -> 02:33 PM)
? By no means will KW have a firesale. It's not in him, it's not like him to do it. It just won't happen while Williams is GM. Maybe the hitting does heat up, but with our luck, the starting pitching will go down the s***ter.

He's had them before. Not the magnitude of what it would and should be this season though. For the team's future, he's got to do it. There are too many holes, too little time, and too many good teams they would have to pass to consider it realistic the Sox have a decent shot at the playoffs.

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QUOTE(kwolf68 @ Jun 13, 2007 -> 04:17 PM)
There is absolutely no chance this team makes the playoffs. None. .500 is possible I guess, but my best case scenario is 86-90 losses.

Ok. Thanks. I'll just stop watching now.

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QUOTE(SoxFan1 @ Jun 13, 2007 -> 05:19 PM)
Ok. Thanks. I'll just stop watching now.

 

 

You can still watch your favorite team play while being realistic about their situation. This team stinks. It's old, it's laborious, and it lacks talent. We can even debate if the manager is able to maximize their potential, but even assuming Ozzie is Herzog V 2.0 there is no chance this team catches Detroit or Cleveland...right now we are in the sights of the Royals. Yep, the KC Royals.

 

I will continue to watch...for a few reasons

 

1-I love baseball

2-I am a White Sox fan

3-I want to see reasons to be optimistic for next year by way of developing players (Fields, Terrero, Sweeney, etc)

 

However, no team with the crew we have playing is going to make the playoffs. This season is cooked. I am at peace with that...time to rebuild our organization and give our program a new look.

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QUOTE(SoxFan1 @ Jun 13, 2007 -> 04:19 PM)
Ok. Thanks. I'll just stop watching now.

 

If someone could look into the future and guarantee me the Sox would lose 100 games and this season was lost I would still watch all the games I could..

 

I don't live in Chicago, so I rarely get to watch them.. so I take every chance I can get to see my team play whether they suck or not..

 

Anyways, I think the worst case scenario is that the offense never really puts it together and KW deals off Buehrle and Dye for some good prospects that should be able to help us soon.. I dont see 100 losses from this team there is too much talent for that..

 

The best case scenario is that the bats heat up and we add a bullpen arm or two and win around 85-90 games, but still no playoffs..

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QUOTE(fathom @ Jun 13, 2007 -> 04:25 PM)
Do you think this team can still make the playoffs? (BTW, this is an honest question, not being a smart ass).

Until we are officially mathematically eliminated from the playoffs, then they still have a chance in my mind. There are 100 games left in the season. More then enough time to turn things around.

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Well since none of the best case senarios on this sunshine list are actually feasible....

 

Best Case: We firesale all of our veteran assets we can, Fields, Sweeney and Terrero all finish strong and show they can play and get a shot to at the MLB level, Danks pitches well, Masset improves, our minor league arms show progress.

 

Worst Case: Fields, Sweeney, and Terrero are bad or don't get a chance, we get close enough to make Kenny do nothing but trade for more old guys, we lose Dye, Buehrle, and Iguchi for nothing, Pods and Erstad are brought back, Crede is brought back as we move Fields to left field, our pitching prospects tank.

Edited by whitesoxfan101
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QUOTE(Tony82087 @ Jun 13, 2007 -> 05:21 PM)
To me, thats worst case scenario. Winning 85-90 and not making the playoffs would probably crush the franchise. If that were to happen, Dye-Buehrle would be obviously still be here, and to be honest, to win 85-90 games, talent from outside the organization would have to be brought in, which means prospects being shipped off.

 

So now you go into 2008 with nothing to show for 2007, Dye and Buehrle did nothing to help you win anything, you have nothing to show for them except draft picks, and your down a few prospects...

At this point in time, REALISTIC best case scenerio is the Sox really tank but Dye and Mark get hot/stay hot, Kenny gets great packages for both of them, system gets some credibility, and then you deal off some more dead weight in the off-season.

 

Well I just meant that its better than being a losing team all season.. I agree with your opinion on it though

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QUOTE(SoxFan1 @ Jun 13, 2007 -> 04:48 PM)
Until we are officially mathematically eliminated from the playoffs, then they still have a chance in my mind. There are 100 games left in the season. More then enough time to turn things around.

 

I love your optimism, and I used to be one of the more optimistic posters around, unfortunately, I have to come to the realization that this is just a bad team. Since the all-star break last year, this team is a disgusting 16 games below .500. That's over the course of, like, 120 games or so. That's not a fluke. That's just being bad. This team has gotten really old, really fast. We're old, slow, and unathletic. I think we've squeezed as much out of this group as we could.

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Here are simple mathematic absolutes. If we want to win the division, we need to go on a historic run starting now.

 

To win 90 games we will have to go 63-37 the rest of the way. And that will still not be enough.

To win the 95 we will have to go 68-32.

 

So basically the season is over. Kenny needs to plan for the future. Nothing should be brought in for a win now mentality. My fear is that we go on a little run and Kenny thinks he can get back in it and starts to burn more of the system and comes up short and ruins us for a long long time.

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