Unsolicited advice on rebuilding

[gosox41]

Before KW begins his rebuilding, I would like him to take a few facts into consideration:

1. Detroit, Minny, and Cleveland will be good to very good the next few tears.

2. Based on my calculations, the Sox have $55 mill tied into 6 players next year with guaranteed contracts-Vazquez, Garland, Contreras, PK, Thome (I only included $8 mill since that's all the Sox are paying) and AJ.I'm too lazy to look up Mackowiack and McDougal's contracts as well as Ozuna's.

3. Assuming all White Sox free agent's walk after this year, the sox will have 9 glaring holes to fill: 1 SP, at least 3 relievers (unless they reach their potential quickly), 2B, SS, all 3 OF posiitons.

4. Crede will get a 1 year contract worth $4-4.5 mill making it $60 mill tied up in 7 players. The Sox won't release him but may trade hm if he proves he's healthy.

 

So, assuming the payroll stays where it is this year-and taht's a big assumption because there will be a decline in attendance this year--do you think you can spend $40 mill and fill 9 holes to legitimately compete with the rest of the division?

 

 

Sure trading Buehrle may get you 2 studs and you'll get something good for Dye. But will this be enough?

 

I don't think so. Now is the time to start an almost full scale rebuilding. Don't trade everyone, but get pretty damn close to it. The money saved by trading now with the added payroll flexibility added with the prospects we will receive can make this a very quick rebuilding process...if KW does it right.

 

IMHO, Garland is the player with the most trade value on this team. He is pitching the best and signed through 2008. What's preventing the Sox from getting a great offer for Buehrle is that it's his walk year. Heck, even teams are scouting Contreras. As much as I like him, there's something to be said of getting a good prospect or 2 for a $10 mill. pitcher with an ERA near 5.

 

KW needs to make this team younger, faster, and more fundamentally sound. If it means trading good pitching now to get 2 stud prospects for Buerle, or 3 studs for Garland or a couple of good prospects for COntreras then do it. Because this team has too many holes too not do it.

 

Unless KW can figure out how to fill 9 glaring holes with $40 mill., it won't matter how well Garland, Contreras, and Vazquez pitch next year because an OF combo of Erstad, Ozuna, Sweeney, Mackowiak, Terrero, Gonzalez, Anderson and anyone else I'm missing that's under contract for next year is pretty awful. Paying $5 mill for Uribe and his .270 OBP is terrilbe.

 

I hope KW has thought this through. Because to come into 2008 and maybe ne an 85 win team next year isn't worth keeping a guy like Garland or Contreras who will leave town after 2008 anyway. Might as well trade both of them now while teams are willing to give up more talent since these guys have that extra year on their contract at a realistic price.

 

I hope KW gets it. I have a feeling he's going to try to rebuild on the fly. And I don't think that's a good plan considering the divison we're in. If this were the NL Central, I'd be looking to buy right now. But it's not. So unless the minor league system starts producing good players overnight, it's time to ake a step back this year to take many steps forward in the upcoming years.

 

Do you think KW realizes this?

 

 

Bob

[greg775]

If it means trading good pitching now to get 2 stud prospects for Buerle, or 3 studs for Garland or a couple of good prospects for COntreras then do it. Because this team has too many holes too not do it.

 

I hope the "stud prospects" pan out better than Reed, Borchard, Olivo, et all.

I'd rather keep our studs and do the free agency thing.

It's Jerry's money, not mine.

[SoxFan1]

I hope the "stud prospects" pan out better than Reed, Borchard, Olivo, et all.

I'd rather keep our studs and do the free agency thing.

It's Jerry's money, not mine.

Could you elaborate on who these studs are?

[BobDylan]

Kenny hasn't considered any of this. He has no idea how much his players are making, how many years they're signed for and it has yet to occur to him that he has a lot of money already locked up in a certain group of players. He has no idea that he has a lot of holes to fill and very little room to work with. He doesn't know that Buehrle is a FA next year and he doesn't know yet that Crede is on the DL. He doesn't know that the bullpen is a complete mess and he doesn't know Dye isn't putting up numbers close to last year. He still thinks Thome will slug them to a World Series because he's the left handed power hitter the team has needed for so many years. He doesn't know that Jose Contreras is old. He doesn't know why french fries are called "french" fries. He doesn't know who Razor Shines or Ozzie Guillen are. He doesn't even know who he is.

Why do I keep seeing these kind of threads? Kenny Williams isn't a moron. He understands what's going on--it's just a matter of whether he can work through all these restrictions in a timely matter.

Edited June 27, 2007 by BobDylan

[Kalapse]

I hope the "stud prospects" pan out better than Reed, Borchard, Olivo, et all.

I'd rather keep our studs and do the free agency thing.

It's Jerry's money, not mine.

Only part of it is Jerry's money and since you're not the one spending it he and the rest of the BoD are going to keep the team payroll at a strict budget next season just as they do every year. Likely somewhere in the $80-$95M range (it could go either way.)

 

Free agency alone is not going to save this old, broken down team.

[hitlesswonder]

Free agency alone is not going to save this old, broken down team.

I don't see what likely free agent signing will have much impact, if any. Rowand? Eckstein? I don't see anyone else out there likely to come to the Sox for the amount of money that can be offered. $87M is a good guess (or at least the midpoint of Kalapse's range) at next year's payroll. That's not enough money to devote $15M a year to a player. Not when the team has so many holes. A complete teardown job which trades players like Jenks, Garland, Vazquez, Contreras, and Konerko (if anyone will take the last 2) is justifiable -- the minor leagues are barren and there's no other means to get talent than trade. KW has said he won't do it, but a Marlins-style rebuild isn't ridiculous to contemplate. It could easily be the best move.

[mmmmmbeeer]

Kenny hasn't considered any of this. He has no idea how much his players are making, how many years they're signed for and it has yet to occur to him that he has a lot of money already locked up in a certain group of players. He has no idea that he has a lot of holes to fill and very little room to work with. He doesn't know that Buehrle is a FA next year and he doesn't know yet that Crede is on the DL. He doesn't know that the bullpen is a complete mess and he doesn't know Dye isn't putting up numbers close to last year. He still thinks Thome will slug them to a World Series because he's the left handed power hitter the team has needed for so many years. He doesn't know that Jose Contreras is old. He doesn't know why french fries are called "french" fries. He doesn't know who Razor Shines or Ozzie Guillen are. He doesn't even know who he is.

Why do I keep seeing these kind of threads? Kenny Williams isn't a moron. He understands what's going on--it's just a matter of whether he can work through all these restrictions in a timely matter.

 

 

I don't think that he was insinuating that KW doesn't understand his position, I think he's mentioning that there are two courses of action KW can take.

 

I'm in complete agreement, it's time for a complete overhaul of this team. I would trade jenks, garland, vazquez, anyone who we can something for. KW tried to rebuild while competing this season (his words) and we see how well that's worked.

[caulfield12]

Before KW begins his rebuilding, I would like him to take a few facts into consideration:

1. Detroit, Minny, and Cleveland will be good to very good the next few tears.

2. Based on my calculations, the Sox have $55 mill tied into 6 players next year with guaranteed contracts-Vazquez, Garland, Contreras, PK, Thome (I only included $8 mill since that's all the Sox are paying) and AJ.I'm too lazy to look up Mackowiack and McDougal's contracts as well as Ozuna's.

3. Assuming all White Sox free agent's walk after this year, the sox will have 9 glaring holes to fill: 1 SP, at least 3 relievers (unless they reach their potential quickly), 2B, SS, all 3 OF posiitons.

4. Crede will get a 1 year contract worth $4-4.5 mill making it $60 mill tied up in 7 players. The Sox won't release him but may trade hm if he proves he's healthy.

 

So, assuming the payroll stays where it is this year-and taht's a big assumption because there will be a decline in attendance this year--do you think you can spend $40 mill and fill 9 holes to legitimately compete with the rest of the division?

Sure trading Buehrle may get you 2 studs and you'll get something good for Dye. But will this be enough?

 

I don't think so. Now is the time to start an almost full scale rebuilding. Don't trade everyone, but get pretty damn close to it. The money saved by trading now with the added payroll flexibility added with the prospects we will receive can make this a very quick rebuilding process...if KW does it right.

 

IMHO, Garland is the player with the most trade value on this team. He is pitching the best and signed through 2008. What's preventing the Sox from getting a great offer for Buehrle is that it's his walk year. Heck, even teams are scouting Contreras. As much as I like him, there's something to be said of getting a good prospect or 2 for a $10 mill. pitcher with an ERA near 5.

 

KW needs to make this team younger, faster, and more fundamentally sound. If it means trading good pitching now to get 2 stud prospects for Buerle, or 3 studs for Garland or a couple of good prospects for COntreras then do it. Because this team has too many holes too not do it.

 

Unless KW can figure out how to fill 9 glaring holes with $40 mill., it won't matter how well Garland, Contreras, and Vazquez pitch next year because an OF combo of Erstad, Ozuna, Sweeney, Mackowiak, Terrero, Gonzalez, Anderson and anyone else I'm missing that's under contract for next year is pretty awful. Paying $5 mill for Uribe and his .270 OBP is terrilbe.

 

I hope KW has thought this through. Because to come into 2008 and maybe ne an 85 win team next year isn't worth keeping a guy like Garland or Contreras who will leave town after 2008 anyway. Might as well trade both of them now while teams are willing to give up more talent since these guys have that extra year on their contract at a realistic price.

 

I hope KW gets it. I have a feeling he's going to try to rebuild on the fly. And I don't think that's a good plan considering the divison we're in. If this were the NL Central, I'd be looking to buy right now. But it's not. So unless the minor league system starts producing good players overnight, it's time to ake a step back this year to take many steps forward in the upcoming years.

 

Do you think KW realizes this?

Bob

 

 

Contreras' deal is through 2009, fwiw.

 

I do think that dealing Garland and Buehrle makes the most sense, although I wouldn't mind trying to keep one of them as the centerpiece of the rotation and as a "mentor" for Danks/Gio and the other youngsters on the way. You'd much rather trade Vazquez or Contreras, but how easy would those moves be compared to Garland and Buehrle?

 

Also, KW invested too much into Vazquez to prove the Chris Young deal wasn't a bust...but he's not going to get us back to the World Series, just .500, like his career record and results indicate. He's not a "winner" like Garland, Buehrle or Contreras IMO.

 

It's the principle of letting Ordonez, Lee and Valentin go and replacing them with AJ, Iguchi, Hermanson, El Duque, Dye, Pods and Vizcaino. As long as you get quality, regular players, it's the logical way to rebuild.

 

You don't go out and spend $10-15 million on Ichiro, Hunter or Andruw Jones with the White Sox many players away from being a contender...those acquisitions are the "over the top" players you add to a roster with a 90 win potentially, like we thought we were doing with the Thome move.

 

The thing to be optimistic about is that the depth we do supposedly have in the minors is pitching, which is a lot more expensive to go out and buy through FA than position players.

[gosox41]

Could you elaborate on who these studs are?

 

 

It depends on the team. I'm just saying that a guy like Garland should be able to be traded to a team with a good farm system and get at least 2-3 of their top 3-5 prospoects.

 

Do you think there's no demand for an 18 game winner that's owed approx. $15 mill over the next year and a half? What about a team like Atlanta with that catcher they have. What about Arizona and their deep system.

 

Don't know names for sure, but I do know that spending $40 mill in free agency this off season isn't going to fill as many holes as one thinks.

 

 

Bob

 

Kenny hasn't considered any of this. He has no idea how much his players are making, how many years they're signed for and it has yet to occur to him that he has a lot of money already locked up in a certain group of players. He has no idea that he has a lot of holes to fill and very little room to work with. He doesn't know that Buehrle is a FA next year and he doesn't know yet that Crede is on the DL. He doesn't know that the bullpen is a complete mess and he doesn't know Dye isn't putting up numbers close to last year. He still thinks Thome will slug them to a World Series because he's the left handed power hitter the team has needed for so many years. He doesn't know that Jose Contreras is old. He doesn't know why french fries are called "french" fries. He doesn't know who Razor Shines or Ozzie Guillen are. He doesn't even know who he is.

Why do I keep seeing these kind of threads? Kenny Williams isn't a moron. He understands what's going on--it's just a matter of whether he can work through all these restrictions in a timely matter.

 

 

Are you sure he thought of these things? Has he also thought that the way to build a team that ocntends year in and year out and avoid making purges like these is through a strong farm system? Because if he has thought of it, he's doing a lousy job executing it. So, I'll try to dumb it down for him a bit until he does what needs to be done.

 

I have an idea, let me fire the scouting director 5 years after the fact he purposely drafted the wrong guy in the first round of the 2002 draft. And let's replace him with another in house candidate instead of going outside to a team that actually has a history of strong farm systems and hiring someone from there.

 

zOh wait, that's not sarcasm, that's reality.

 

 

 

Bob

[CanOfCorn]

Not to be a jerk, Bob, but have you noticed the attendance at Marlins games? They have won 2 WS titles in the short amount of time they've been in existence and they still can't get a sell out. White Sox fans will only take losing for so long. Remember how many attendance threads were on this board in 2005, on our way to winning the WS?

 

Actually, I think Kenny's got it right, you have to do more of an Oakland/Atlanta thing where you rebuild on the fly and try to keep winning. The first place-last place-first place thing is too tough on the fans/front office/players. At least TRY, which is what Kenny did. His players have been hurt and maybe he was short-sighted on players like Erstad not getting hurt again, but hey, look at Dye, he was an "injury risk" and he turned out to be our WS MVP.

 

Being a GM is hit or miss...and hopefully you can be more hit than miss. Obviously there are some better than others, but I think overall, Kenny is on the top end of GMs in this league. So, selling the farm is not an option for this team.

 

By the way, as much as Jerry and the Board of Directors have been slammed on this board and in the media, they/he has brought the city of Chicago 7 World Championships, which is more than any of the other owners in this town have done.

[gosox41]

Not to be a jerk, Bob, but have you noticed the attendance at Marlins games? They have won 2 WS titles in the short amount of time they've been in existence and they still can't get a sell out. White Sox fans will only take losing for so long. Remember how many attendance threads were on this board in 2005, on our way to winning the WS?

 

Actually, I think Kenny's got it right, you have to do more of an Oakland/Atlanta thing where you rebuild on the fly and try to keep winning. The first place-last place-first place thing is too tough on the fans/front office/players. At least TRY, which is what Kenny did. His players have been hurt and maybe he was short-sighted on players like Erstad not getting hurt again, but hey, look at Dye, he was an "injury risk" and he turned out to be our WS MVP.

 

Being a GM is hit or miss...and hopefully you can be more hit than miss. Obviously there are some better than others, but I think overall, Kenny is on the top end of GMs in this league. So, selling the farm is not an option for this team.

 

By the way, as much as Jerry and the Board of Directors have been slammed on this board and in the media, they/he has brought the city of Chicago 7 World Championships, which is more than any of the other owners in this town have done.

 

 

I see your point and we agree on most issues. The biggest thing that has cost KW this year and could hurt the team in the next few years in the lack of a productive farm system. I agree that KW is a good GM when it comess to making most of his trades. But in order to rebuild on the fly, a team needs to have a good farm system to supplement it. That's why Oakalnd and Atlanta are able to be competitive every year. Sure they make smart trades, but they're not big in the FA market. They always seem to have minor leaguers ready to step in and be productive major leaguers. The Sox don't have that after 7 years of KW drafts. It's laugable how poor they have been.

 

If the Sox had a farm system, I'm all for rebuilding on the fly because it's a realistic option. If the Sox had an unlimited budget, they can easily rebuild on the fly. But they don't have either. Waht they do have are approximately 8 holes that will need to be filled by average to above average major leaguers next year for this team to contend. Where are they going to come from given the amount of money locked up in current contracts, the lack of minor league talent, and a limited budget?

 

That's why KW's almost forced to rebuild completely...to suffer for 1 year instead of being bad to mediocore for many while we hope he rebuilds a farm system.

 

 

 

Bob

[VAfan]

Until the last few days, I would have subscribed to the "start over" theory as well. But if there is any chance Mark Buehrle will take a $14 million/year contract for 4 years instead of 5, I think this changes the equation significantly.

 

At the end of the day, any rebuilding has to start with starting pitching. Look at the Yankees. All-Star lineup of sluggers, but still 3 games under .500. Why? No starting pitching.

 

So, if Buehrle can be kept, then keep him. And I wouldn't trade Garland either. I'd try to re-sign him to an extension in the offseason. Now you look like you have a rotation. Garland/Buerhle/Danks. Bring up Floyd and Gio or whomever we already have that can pitch. Frankly, if you keep Buehrle, we might have enough starting pitching already to compete for the next 5-6 years.

 

Then, I would be willing to trade everyone else on the roster, except Josh Fields, but including Bobby Jenks and Paul Konerko, to try to get 3-4 cornerstone position players back. Remember, we once had Maggs, Lee, and Konerko -- young guys of that quality. With 3-4 young position stars, if you have starting pitching you can build a team of role players around them, as well as a bullpen.

 

Depending how ready the prospects are, you could actually do this and be better next year than we have been.

 

Waht they do have are approximately 8 holes that will need to be filled by average to above average major leaguers next year for this team to contend. Where are they going to come from given the amount of money locked up in current contracts, the lack of minor league talent, and a limited budget?

 

As a follow up to the post I just made, I don't think you are wrong overall, but I quibble with the notion that we need to fill 8 holes. If we were able to keep Buehrle and extend Garland next year, our starting pitching could actually be very competitive going forward, and relatively inexpensive. Then, with Fields at 3B, we could trade the rest of the team for 3-4 cornerstone position prospects, all of whom would be cheap. The only big contracts might be held by Buehrle and Garland. (If someone wants Konerko, I'd trade him in a second.) Then the Sox would have the money to add a top-quality free agent. We could fill in the remaining holes the way we always have.

 

 

**************

Edited addition.

 

If we did a true fire sale -- kept Buehrle, but unloaded Contreras, Vazquez, Dye, Iguchi, Uribe, and Konerko -- the Sox would have only 2-3 big contracts on the roster -- Buehrle, Garland, and Thome. If we got my 3-4 major-league ready prospects back, we could splurge on one major FA. What about A-Rod? When the Yankees don't make the playoffs this season, he's going to want out of his deal. The Sox could afford $18 mill/year for the guy who is going to set the all-time HR record.

Edited June 28, 2007 by VAfan