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Now it's limited no-trade?


BurlyMan56

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QUOTE(WCSox @ Jul 3, 2007 -> 12:23 PM)
After winning the WS, I think that Kenny envisioned a 2-3 year window to repeat with the same core players. I think that he's anticipating major turnover between next year and '09, with Garland being part of that turnover.

 

I think Kenny will look to make moves that keep the team competitive, but I don't see how a patchwork team can beat the Indians or Tigers.Too many holes, and although I think keeping Garland is the way too go - starting pitching is the key to any good team - I think the White Sox will look to get 2 or 3 major league ready players this off-season for Garland, especially if they think they won't be able to sign him.

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QUOTE(NorthSideSox72 @ Jul 3, 2007 -> 12:22 PM)
Years ago, I would have agreed. But right now, I think they would do it if the deals were right. Why, you ask? Here is why...

 

Attendance at last night's game, a Monday night against the mighty Orioles: 35000+

 

Even 2 years after the WS, and with the team playing like crap... people show up. As long as the attendance stays up, which it looks like it will, and the money keeps flowing in... this club will spend the money. Especially on young pitching talent.

 

It wasn't more than a few years back that there were only 4 games a year where they drew 35k - 3 Cubs games and Opening Day.

 

Well, keep in mind that two things were driving last night's attendance: 1) pre-sold season tickets; and 2) the possibility of it being Mark's final start on the southside.

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QUOTE(iamshack @ Jul 3, 2007 -> 05:27 PM)
Well, keep in mind that two things were driving last night's attendance: 1) pre-sold season tickets; and 2) the possibility of it being Mark's final start on the southside.

 

So if and when they trade Mark... his next scheduled start (after he is traded) all 35K+ should just boycott the game.

 

I am not making fun at all, it was GREAT hearing 35K+ screaming for Mark in the 7th... soooo cool... it would have been nice for him to get the win.

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QUOTE(iamshack @ Jul 3, 2007 -> 10:27 AM)
Well, keep in mind that two things were driving last night's attendance: 1) pre-sold season tickets; and 2) the possibility of it being Mark's final start on the southside.

 

Yep.

 

QUOTE(NorthSideSox72 @ Jul 3, 2007 -> 10:22 AM)
Years ago, I would have agreed. But right now, I think they would do it if the deals were right. Why, you ask? Here is why...

 

Attendance at last night's game, a Monday night against the mighty Orioles: 35000+

 

Even 2 years after the WS, and with the team playing like crap... people show up. As long as the attendance stays up, which it looks like it will, and the money keeps flowing in... this club will spend the money. Especially on young pitching talent.

 

It wasn't more than a few years back that there were only 4 games a year where they drew 35k - 3 Cubs games and Opening Day.

 

I agree that JR & Co. will definitely spend if ticket sales stay high. However, history (even recent history) has suggested that they won't unless they're competitive. I could be wrong... heck, I HOPE I'm wrong, but I don't see that changing just because of '05. My feeling is that JR and KW are going to look and see what the season ticket base is like next Spring. If it goes down significantly, my feeling is that next year will be Jon's last in Chicago.

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QUOTE(WCSox @ Jul 3, 2007 -> 12:54 PM)
Yep.

I agree that JR & Co. will definitely spend if ticket sales stay high. However, history (even recent history) has suggested that they won't unless they're competitive. I could be wrong... heck, I HOPE I'm wrong, but I don't see that changing just because of '05. My feeling is that JR and KW are going to look and see what the season ticket base is like next Spring. If it goes down significantly, my feeling is that next year will be Jon's last in Chicago.

 

 

You're not wrong. The investment group has been doing the same thing for 20 years and stayed out of the red. I suspect they will stay status quo and not try to fix what isn't broke. Some good news might be that this year's ticket revenue (sale profit mainly) is for the most part used in projecting next years budget. So the payroll "cut" might not be much of a cut at all.

 

And before I forget, I agree with you about signing both Mark and Jon to similar deals. Not a snowball's chance in hell.

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QUOTE(iamshack @ Jul 3, 2007 -> 12:27 PM)
Well, keep in mind that two things were driving last night's attendance: 1) pre-sold season tickets; and 2) the possibility of it being Mark's final start on the southside.

The fact that it is season holders is exactly what I am talking about. People are buying tickets, seasons particularly.

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QUOTE(Steff @ Jul 3, 2007 -> 12:59 PM)
And before I forget, I agree with you about signing both Mark and Jon to similar deals. Not a snowball's chance in hell.

 

Steff, just curious. Why not?

Secondly, why is KW afraid to set a precedent if no other high-dollar contracts are forthcoming?

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QUOTE(Steff @ Jul 3, 2007 -> 12:59 PM)
You're not wrong. The investment group has been doing the same thing for 20 years and stayed out of the red. I suspect they will stay status quo and not try to fix what isn't broke. Some good news might be that this year's ticket revenue (sale profit mainly) is for the most part used in projecting next years budget. So the payroll "cut" might not be much of a cut at all.

 

And before I forget, I agree with you about signing both Mark and Jon to similar deals. Not a snowball's chance in hell.

I am not so sure. I think KW likes the idea of a Braves-like pitching-based program. I think he wants to avoid full NTC's so that he has flexibility - but I don't think its his A-plan to get rid of JG or MB. I think he wants them as his anchors for quite a while.

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QUOTE(NorthSideSox72 @ Jul 3, 2007 -> 01:02 PM)
The fact that it is season holders is exactly what I am talking about. People are buying tickets, seasons particularly.

 

 

 

Not anymore they aren't. Those several thousand names on that waiting list at the start of the year... all gone.

 

QUOTE(NorthSideSox72 @ Jul 3, 2007 -> 01:03 PM)
I am not so sure. I think KW likes the idea of a Braves-like pitching-based program. I think he wants to avoid full NTC's so that he has flexibility - but I don't think its his A-plan to get rid of JG or MB. I think he wants them as his anchors for quite a while.

 

 

Kenny does not make the decison to tie up $100+M for 2 players.

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QUOTE(NorthSideSox72 @ Jul 3, 2007 -> 01:02 PM)
The fact that it is season holders is exactly what I am talking about. People are buying tickets, seasons particularly.

They ate through a pretty substantial waiting list after a 90 win season. If this team finishes with 70-75 wins, I'm not sure how many of those people in rows in the double figures in the upper deck are going to want to re-up for another 81 games. I think the season ticketbase is a house of cards, and one big reason why the White Sox want to win as many games as possible the rest of this season. I'd rather they pick up some young players and try to make a big splash with free agents, but I don't think thats going to happen.

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QUOTE(Steff @ Jul 3, 2007 -> 01:04 PM)
Not anymore they aren't. Those several thousand names on that waiting list at the start of the year... all gone.

So let's say there is no waiting list right now. Season ticket base is in the low 20's somewhere, as I recall. That alone is big, when one considers that for decades, this team had average attendance numbers well below that. There maybe a dropoff next year, but it won't be an enormous one, I'd guess. I just don't see it going back to pre-2005 levels anytime soon, unless this team is really bad for a few more years. I think the WS, and the general winning attitude for the club during this decade has drawn a lot of new fans, and not all of them will abandon ship.

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QUOTE(NorthSideSox72 @ Jul 3, 2007 -> 01:02 PM)
The fact that it is season holders is exactly what I am talking about. People are buying tickets, seasons particularly.

 

But there have been increasing # of no shows-at least in our area. they are likely non renewers next year

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QUOTE(NorthSideSox72 @ Jul 3, 2007 -> 01:07 PM)
So let's say there is no waiting list right now. Season ticket base is in the low 20's somewhere, as I recall. That alone is big, when one considers that for decades, this team had average attendance numbers well below that. There maybe a dropoff next year, but it won't be an enormous one, I'd guess. I just don't see it going back to pre-2005 levels anytime soon, unless this team is really bad for a few more years. I think the WS, and the general winning attitude for the club during this decade has drawn a lot of new fans, and not all of them will abandon ship.

 

It took a World Series to get fans to open their checkbooks... To think that they will CONTINUE to pay when it's obvious that the team is NOT going back to the World Series any time soon... IMO is simply not realistic. And there's 20+ years of back up to prove it.

 

Last year there were nearly 30K st holders. This year I believe it's mid 20's. That waiting list was over 4K long at one point and it's all gone. I think the fans are clear on what they think about buying anymore season tickets.

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QUOTE(Steff @ Jul 3, 2007 -> 01:06 PM)
Kenny does not make the decison to tie up $100+M for 2 players.

 

I believe that is where the NTC comes in. I don't think they are afraid of committing the money. I think they are afraid of becoming inflexible.

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QUOTE(Steff @ Jul 3, 2007 -> 01:14 PM)
It took a World Series to get fans to open their checkbooks... To think that they will CONTINUE to pay when it's obvious that the team is NOT going back to the World Series any time soon... IMO is simply not realistic. And there's 20+ years of back up to prove it.

 

Last year there were nearly 30K st holders. This year I believe it's mid 20's. That waiting list was over 4K long at one point and it's all gone. I think the fans are clear on what they think about buying anymore season tickets.

I think the assumption you make is that the team winning and winning now is the only thing drawing fans. While it is the single biggest reason, its not the only one. The park, for example, is looked at much more favorably now than it was. That, for some folks, is huge. Also, the neighborhood is changing, and that too will have a positive effect going forward. So will the new Metra station. Its also a battle for the casual fan - the ones who don't really care about either Chicago team much, but who wouldn't have thought of coming to the south side to see a game until 2005. Now, having seen the park and enjoyed it, they are likely to return, even if the team isn't so hot.

 

We are very focused on team performance here, but there are other dynamics at work too. If the ST base this year is, for example, 24k... I'd bet it stays above 20k next year.

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QUOTE(Steff @ Jul 3, 2007 -> 01:25 PM)
Fans continuing to pay for a s***ty product because the park is pretty and the neighborhood is building up...

Sounds like the fans of some other team....

It does. But it doesn't change the reality - they exist, even in Sox fandom.

 

This site doesn't tend to attract a lot of casual fans - more superfans. So sometimes its easy to forget that they are part of those attendance numbers.

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QUOTE(NorthSideSox72 @ Jul 3, 2007 -> 01:26 PM)
It does. But it doesn't change the reality - they exist, even in Sox fandom.

 

This site doesn't tend to attract a lot of casual fans - more superfans. So sometimes its easy to forget that they are part of those attendance numbers.

 

 

Like I said, they haven't been for 20+ years and I don't see them starting now.

 

It would be nice if you are right, but I doubt it. All done.

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QUOTE(Steff @ Jul 3, 2007 -> 01:25 PM)
Fans continuing to pay for a s***ty product because the park is pretty and the neighborhood is building up...

Sounds like the fans of some other team....

 

And we need fans like that...

 

But let's not get too carried away with the analogy....the level of mismanagement on the North side far, far, far outweighs the mistakes made on the South side.

 

QUOTE(Steff @ Jul 3, 2007 -> 01:29 PM)
Like I said, they haven't been for 20+ years and I don't see them starting now.

 

It would be nice if you are right, but I doubt it. All done.

 

How do you think the situation on the North side got to how it is currently? It certainly wasn't always like that...

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I think season tickets are going to drop big time next year. The reality is most new season ticket holders thought they were buying into a playoff caliber team and would be going to playoff games, or they bought season tickets to get WS tickets in '05. If this team goes into rebuilding mode I wouldn't be surprised if season tickets go down to 15-18k next year.

 

I agree the stadium is nicer and the area has clearly gentrified around the park but there is still a severe lack of entertainment around the park and the fact remains most suburban fans have to start battling the Dan Ryan right after the game to get home at a reasonable time while most fans taking the subway from the city would rather go out downtown or in their own neighborhood...I don't think the stadium or the neighborhood are a "draw".

 

I also think plenty of the partial season ticket holders will bail out figuring they can just buy a few ticket at or below face rather than paying upfront.

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QUOTE(Steff @ Jul 3, 2007 -> 11:25 AM)
Fans continuing to pay for a s***ty product because the park is pretty and the neighborhood is building up...

Sounds like the fans of some other team....

 

I hope that NSS72 is right, but I believe that Steff's prediction is more realistic. Losing 10,000 season-ticket holders in one year (AFTER a 90-win season) does not paint an optimistic picture.

 

When the Sox were OK-but-nothing-special just five years ago, they struggled to draw 2 million fans. If the Sox become mired in mediocrity again, that's where I expect the fan support to be again in '09.

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QUOTE(LVSoxFan @ Jul 3, 2007 -> 01:57 PM)
Hey not to be an ambulance chaser but if this means easier season tix for me next year yay! At least something good comes out of this mess of a year.

 

Not that I wouldn't rather see the team pick it up, but...

 

 

Don't forget the shorter bathroom lines.. :D

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