Extending Dye

[michelangelosmonkey]

Jermaine Dye is hitting .214 right now. He's been injury prone a lot of his career...and has seemed hurt much of this year. He's 33. Is he REALLY going to bring trade value? Is he REALLY going to get a good contract in the off-season? You think the Sox could extend him at say $8 million per year for three years? The idea is he may not be the 1.000 OPS guy from last year, but also not the .670 OPS of this year. If you can sign a guy when he is mentally low and get a discount, there's no real reason to believe that he won't bounce back and be more like a .290/35 homer guy with pretty good defense. JD next year at $8 instead of Ichiro at $15? So many on the board are talking about some teams top prospect or just waiting to collect two number one's for him. But what if the option is neither...he walks and we get nothing.

[southsideirish71]

Jermaine Dye is hitting .214 right now. He's been injury prone a lot of his career...and has seemed hurt much of this year. He's 33. Is he REALLY going to bring trade value? Is he REALLY going to get a good contract in the off-season? You think the Sox could extend him at say $8 million per year for three years? The idea is he may not be the 1.000 OPS guy from last year, but also not the .670 OPS of this year. If you can sign a guy when he is mentally low and get a discount, there's no real reason to believe that he won't bounce back and be more like a .290/35 homer guy with pretty good defense. JD next year at $8 instead of Ichiro at $15? So many on the board are talking about some teams top prospect or just waiting to collect two number one's for him. But what if the option is neither...he walks and we get nothing.

 

Depending on who he goes to, the supplemental picks will be worth something. He is a long framed, aging OF who has issues this year with his legs. He has slowed down over the last few years and projects to be a DH more than a OF and we have a DH right now. I dont know if we want to back that for a few years at a lot of money.

[BigSqwert]

I think you are watching old footage from 2001 when you say "pretty good defense".

[hitlesswonder]

J there's no real reason to believe that he won't bounce back and be more like a .290/35 homer guy with pretty good defense. JD next year at $8 instead of Ichiro at $15? So many on the board are talking about some teams top prospect or just waiting to collect two number one's for him. But what if the option is neither...he walks and we get nothing.

Getting nothing would be better than signing Dye to a bad contract. Dye has been one of the best FA signings I've ever seen. But his defense is obviously deteriorating. I don't know if it's injury or age, but I think he can't play RF anymore really. And .290/35HR would be the 2nd or 3rd best season of his career (it would be a .900 OPS season). That's real unlikely to happen. If no one wants to trade anything remotely useful for him, play him the rest of the season and hope he does well enough that the Sox can offer arbitration and get draft picks.

[Greg The Bull Luzinski]

Dye is going to be somebody's DH next year. Our outfield defense is embarassingly bad and Dye is part of it. Thanks for the memories Dye, but don't expect a contract offer.

[bulokis]

I think Dye wants to go to Texas and play for the Rangers's manager.

[Al Lopez's Ghost]

Extending Dye would be as stupid a move as could be made. Thanks JD, but see ya.

[michelangelosmonkey]

Getting nothing would be better than signing Dye to a bad contract. Dye has been one of the best FA signings I've ever seen. But his defense is obviously deteriorating. I don't know if it's injury or age, but I think he can't play RF anymore really. And .290/35HR would be the 2nd or 3rd best season of his career (it would be a .900 OPS season). That's real unlikely to happen. If no one wants to trade anything remotely useful for him, play him the rest of the season and hope he does well enough that the Sox can offer arbitration and get draft picks.

I was thinking an .850 OPS which is about what his park adjusted career ops would be. Remember this guy has had years of .950, 1.000, .850, .880 and injury shortened .915 in the last ten years. If his defense has deteriorated so badly...how about LEFT field...where we have suffered with a .690 OPS since Carlos Lee left. Really how much worse would Dye be than Lee...and if we could get him at a down point? Granted he may NOT bounce back...but to say the guy is done...when he's half a season removed from being an MVP candidate? You know...we aren't the Yankees...we can't rebuild in the offseason by opening our billfolds. And if we have assets...like Dye and Crede and Contreas...who suddenly have lost their value more than their ability? Is it unthinkable to try to make a run with them next year? I loved the trade of Garcia last year. But what's the point of burning down the house if we get nothing in return for it?

[mmmmmbeeer]

If he doesn't improve this season and thinks he's going to get $8M from someone, he's drunk.

 

If he got his true market value (no defense, low average, moderate power) of somewhere between $4-5M/per for 2 years I'd keep him on in LF.

Edited July 9, 2007 by mmmmmbeeer

[michelangelosmonkey]

Extending Dye would be as stupid a move as could be made. Thanks JD, but see ya.

 

Why exactly? Because you suspect he's done? People thought that about him a couple of years ago and he's been a huge value for the Sox. So many people would rather see Ryan Sweeney in right field and I think...other than being young (and not SO young anymore) what has he ever done? An OK singles hitter. And that's better than JD at a bargain?

[Chisoxfn]

Depending on who he goes to, the supplemental picks will be worth something. He is a long framed, aging OF who has issues this year with his legs. He has slowed down over the last few years and projects to be a DH more than a OF and we have a DH right now. I dont know if we want to back that for a few years at a lot of money.

Even if he goes to one of the worse teams in baseball, we will still get decent picks. Worse case you don't get as many first rounders but you are still getting talent (plus often times you can get first round talent a little later if you pay extra).

 

I would be all for Dye if you got him at a bargain. 8 mill a year isn't that. You get him to agree to an incentive laden 2-3 year at 4-6 mill deal and I'd think that would be a decent option with the club than finding a CF and sticking with youth in the other spot.

 

I should point that we would be signing Dye as a LF, not a RF.

 

Note: I still think a team will give him around 3yr 24 mill and that could turn into a good deal but it is also too much for the Sox to pay when there are guys like Ichiro, Andruw Jones, Aaron Rowand, and Torri Hunter out there.

[michelangelosmonkey]

If he doesn't improve this season and thinks he's going to get $8M from someone, he's drunk.

 

If he got his true market value (no defense, low average, moderate power) of somewhere between $4-5M/per for 2 years I'd keep him on in LF.

 

Maybe $8 mill is high...but drunk? Carlos Lee has the same career OPS as Dye, is 1 year younger and just signed for $15 mill per. If you say we have some guy in our system that can put up an .800 OPS in left field and will be cheap. Great. Who is he? IF there is some free agent we can get INSTEAD of JD for $8 mill that will put up an .800 OPS for left field...who's that guy?

[Frankensteiner]

Jermaine Dye is hitting .214 right now. He's been injury prone a lot of his career...and has seemed hurt much of this year. He's 33. Is he REALLY going to bring trade value? Is he REALLY going to get a good contract in the off-season? You think the Sox could extend him at say $8 million per year for three years? The idea is he may not be the 1.000 OPS guy from last year, but also not the .670 OPS of this year. If you can sign a guy when he is mentally low and get a discount, there's no real reason to believe that he won't bounce back and be more like a .290/35 homer guy with pretty good defense. JD next year at $8 instead of Ichiro at $15? So many on the board are talking about some teams top prospect or just waiting to collect two number one's for him. But what if the option is neither...he walks and we get nothing.

 

He's not going to be a .290/35 homer guy because he's never been a .290/35 homer guy; more like a .270/30 homer guy. Plus he's aging and can barely run. I think we were lucky to get two above average seasons from the guy (one of those an excellent season) but it was foolish to assume, as some here did, that Dye could duplicate his stats from last season. I agree we probably won't get much for him, but giving him a 3 year contract at $8M per is just compounding the problem.

[NorthSideSox72]

He's not going to be a .290/35 homer guy because he's never been a .290/35 homer guy; more like a .270/30 homer guy. Plus he's aging and can barely run. I think we were lucky to get two above average seasons from the guy (one of those an excellent season) but it was foolish to assume, as some here did, that Dye could duplicate his stats from last season. I agree we probably won't get much for him, but giving him a 3 year contract at $8M per is just compounding the problem.

So seasons of...

 

.315/44

.274/31

.321/33

 

Don't exist in your mind? Because he has done all those since 2000.

[michelangelosmonkey]

Even if he goes to one of the worse teams in baseball, we will still get decent picks. Worse case you don't get as many first rounders but you are still getting talent (plus often times you can get first round talent a little later if you pay extra).

 

I would be all for Dye if you got him at a bargain. 8 mill a year isn't that. You get him to agree to an incentive laden 2-3 year at 4-6 mill deal and I'd think that would be a decent option with the club than finding a CF and sticking with youth in the other spot.

 

I should point that we would be signing Dye as a LF, not a RF.

 

Note: I still think a team will give him around 3yr 24 mill and that could turn into a good deal but it is also too much for the Sox to pay when there are guys like Ichiro, Andruw Jones, Aaron Rowand, and Torri Hunter out there.

 

I'm not positive on how the compensation works...but I think he has to be top 10 at his position to get the two picks. They use two years I think...so I wouldn't bet that he's a sure thing for compensation. I do like your 4-6 mill with incentives idea. But as for Ichiro, Jones, Rowand, Hunter? I suspect they will all be way more expensive than $8 mill per.

[hitlesswonder]

I'm not positive on how the compensation works...but I think he has to be top 10 at his position to get the two picks. They use two years I think...so I wouldn't bet that he's a sure thing for compensation. I do like your 4-6 mill with incentives idea. But as for Ichiro, Jones, Rowand, Hunter? I suspect they will all be way more expensive than $8 mill per.

 

It is 2 years. Dye is virtually assured of being a 2 pick FA. The real question is whether or not the Sox will offer arbitration (I think they'd be foolish not, but they don't seem to like to do it). I agree that Dye will be light years better than Sweeney hitting next season. The Sox definitely need to acquire at least one OF for next season. But I think Dye is too risky to commit to, assuming he'd want a 3 year deal at $8M per year. I could be wrong -- maybe he's just hurt this season and will come back strong. But I'd rather see the Sox try to bring in either a younger OF or a CF that could leadoff.

[Frankensteiner]

So seasons of...

 

.315/44

.274/31

.321/33

 

Don't exist in your mind? Because he has done all those since 2000.

 

I think we were lucky to get two above average seasons from the guy (one of those an excellent season) but it was foolish to assume, as some here did, that Dye could duplicate his stats from last season.

 

.274/31 isn't really .290/35. It's closer to the .270/30 number I provided.

 

In general, I like to go by these whacky things called career averages instead of cherry picking a couple of season here and there.

 

He's also had sesons of:

 

.265/23

.252/24

.282/26

and then there's this season where he's on pace for .214/25

 

So combined with his good seasons, that makes him about a .270/30 homer guy, on average.

[mmmmmbeeer]

Maybe $8 mill is high...but drunk? Carlos Lee has the same career OPS as Dye, is 1 year younger and just signed for $15 mill per. If you say we have some guy in our system that can put up an .800 OPS in left field and will be cheap. Great. Who is he? IF there is some free agent we can get INSTEAD of JD for $8 mill that will put up an .800 OPS for left field...who's that guy?

 

 

I should have specified that $8M/year from the Sox is drunk thinking. The Sox have too many holes to fill to gamble that amount of money on a player like JD. Now a team who just has a couple of holes, namely DH and LF, yeah, they may take a flyer at $8M/per.

 

Let me put it to you this way...if you're KW would you rather pay JD $8M next season or would you rather get 2 decent relievers to fill out the pen? I don't know, man. There are so many holes on this team that it's tough to even speculate what will happen. Like you said, if we spend the money elsewhere, ie. relief pitching, then we've still got a gaping hole in LF with no one in the ml system to fill it.

[Chisoxfn]

I'm not positive on how the compensation works...but I think he has to be top 10 at his position to get the two picks. They use two years I think...so I wouldn't bet that he's a sure thing for compensation. I do like your 4-6 mill with incentives idea. But as for Ichiro, Jones, Rowand, Hunter? I suspect they will all be way more expensive than $8 mill per.

I agree that those guys will be more expensive than 8 million (actually I think Rowand signs for 8 and I could make a case for taking Dye over Rowand, although Rowand fills a much bigger need in CF, but I'd hope to heck the Sox could get him for less than 8). Unless of course Rowand continues to hit like he has for most of this season.

 

But I do think Ichiro/Jones/Hunter are all worth at least 3-4 million more. I typically think teams are best suited going for the very best of the FA's available or waiting around for the guys that don't get what they want and end up having to settle for less. This is because you are either getting the best or a very good value but the mediocre players that get overpaid tend to turn into the worse contracts (this past off-season I didn't see the Soriano one as that horrid because you rae getting a premiere player, but some of those pitching contracts were horrid).

 

A good example of a value signing would have been the Sox signing Iguchi or AJP (both floundered around and finally signed).

[AddisonStSox]

...the only thing the White Sox should extend with Jermaine Dye is his time on the trainer's table.

 

Get him healthy, let him hit, then ship him off. Done.

[CanOfCorn]

No way the White Sox sign JD. The difference between JD and Carlos Lee is that Caballo has been going up or been steady. JD is declining. I love JD and he will always have a place in my heart as the WS MVP...but it's time to move on.

 

I'd love to see an outfield of Sweeney, Bourn and the Japanese guy that I can't think of his name right now.

[michelangelosmonkey]

I should have specified that $8M/year from the Sox is drunk thinking. The Sox have too many holes to fill to gamble that amount of money on a player like JD. Now a team who just has a couple of holes, namely DH and LF, yeah, they may take a flyer at $8M/per.

 

Let me put it to you this way...if you're KW would you rather pay JD $8M next season or would you rather get 2 decent relievers to fill out the pen? I don't know, man. There are so many holes on this team that it's tough to even speculate what will happen. Like you said, if we spend the money elsewhere, ie. relief pitching, then we've still got a gaping hole in LF with no one in the ml system to fill it.

I think spending money on relief pitching is an even bigger crap shoot than it is on Dye. Middle relief is typically guys that arne't good enough to be starters or aces. So you get a bunch of B prospects that have up and down years. Could we all agree...$6 mill for Dye for leftfield, two years, third year team and player option? And by the way...the difference between .270/30 and .290/35...I'd take either one of Pods or Erstad.

[WCSox]

It is 2 years. Dye is virtually assured of being a 2 pick FA. The real question is whether or not the Sox will offer arbitration (I think they'd be foolish not, but they don't seem to like to do it).

 

Perhaps I'm reading this incorrectly, but hasn't Dye been in the league a bit too long to be arbitration-eligible?

 

And no way that he signs anything in the $6 million/year range. And there's no way that the Sox re-sign him. Thanks for '05 and '06, JD, but you're going to have to find a new home next year.

[iamshack]

Now that Buehrle has been extended, we, as Sox fans, must begin to get accustomed to having to go cheaap at several positions right now. There is no money to gamble $8 million on Jermaine Dye. We've got a larger hole to fill at CF, and the leadoff spot, and so what little excess room we have left in the payroll must be directed at filling that need. After that, we're going to have to find something affordable or dirt cheap at SS and RF, and at 2B if Richar doesn't prove he can field the position.

 

I'm still pining for Chin Lung Hu in the Dodgers system, who is very capable with the glove right now, just needs a bit more time with the bat, but could be ready by 08'.

[Chisoxfn]

Perhaps I'm reading this incorrectly, but hasn't Dye been in the league a bit too long to be arbitration-eligible?

 

And no way that he signs anything in the $6 million/year range. And there's no way that the Sox re-sign him. Thanks for '05 and '06, JD, but you're going to have to find a new home next year.

You still can offer a player arbitration and basically put if he accepts it than you work out a one year deal with him (that goes through an arbitrator). Maddux did this a couple times. You can also accept arbitration and than sign a one year deal with the club (as to go past the arbitration process).

 

The reason the Sox offer arb is to ensure that they get draft picks for Dye who signs elsewhere. However, you do run the risk of Dye accepting arbitration and coming back to Chicago for a year.

 

My question is will the White Sox be timid in the FA market because they offer Dye arb (if in fact they don't deal him). God, I would love to find a way to get Kemp in some sort of package involving Dye and prospects or Dye and a reliever or Dye and a starter. God, get me Kemp as one of our 3 outfielders next year.