BP's very short take on Gio Gonzalez

[hitlesswonder]

From Kevin Goldstein's chat:

Scott (CHicago): Can yout just give a little scouting report on Gio Gonzalez? His numbers appear to be overpowering, but everything I've heard is that he tops out at a #4 in the bigs.

 

Kevin Goldstein: I think 3 or 4, yes. Good stuff, occassional control problems and undersized.

 

That's it -- barely worth mentioning, except that it underscores how bad the farm system is. The Sox best prospect has a ceiling as 3 or probably 4 starter. Ugh. Although it's possible that Egbert is now the Sox best prospect...

[Gregory Pratt]

They don't have to be wrong but I was thinking yesterday -- what if, like the last time (in the late 90s) we had a "good" stock of young arms, none pan out, or just two, do.

 

Let's say Gio becomes a 3 or 4 or less. Let's say Garland reverts to what he used to be. Vazquez too. Let's say Buehrle loses 2-4 MPH on his fastball. Floyd remains Floyd. Haeger doesn't pan out. Broadway never makes it (I don't really think he has what it takes, stuff-wise, to be any good). Danks falls apart. Or, hell, Danks stays good, but the others all fall apart.

 

The future is going to be bad and if I were betting, I don't think there's a single Sox pitcher I'd bet on to continue being successful in the coming years.

[Gregory Pratt]

I like Gio enough, but I wouldn't bet on him.

 

I'm only wondering, What if these guys don't pan out, like last time? Like with so many prospects everywhere! How bad are we going to be then?

 

Our "strength" in our minor league system is not really. It's just a perceived strength, and I'm really not looking forward to the day that this house of cards comes crashing down.

[hitlesswonder]

So you're basing all this on what happened to a different set a pitchers almost 10 years ago?

 

What if Gio does become a 3? Garland stays just the way he is. Vazquez continues to have a solid year. Buehrle doesn't magically lose 2-4 MPH. Floyd finally gets it, ect, ect.

The team is bad right now. We all know it. However every aspect is bad, and this is just taking these to the extreme.

There's a good chance that at least two of JV, Buehrle, Garland, and Danks are good again next season, I agree. But look at the Sox top pitching prospects: Floyd, Haeger, Gio, Egbert. Odds are none of those guys become impact pitchers in major leagues. Non of them is Homer Bailey, and Homer Bailey is not a sure thing. None of them is Mike Pelfrey and he's had trouble pitching in the bigs. Just because they are the Sox best prospects doesn't mean they are good prospects. Gio is probably the top one and he's a B prospect and Egbert was a C+ on Sickels site. A prospects like Adam Miller of the Tribe are a long way away from contributing in the majors, think about what that means for these guys. Haeger and Floyd are on the verge of being non-prospects. Contrary to conventional wisdom, the Sox do not have good depth in starting pitching. It's like 2 years ago when everyone thought the Sox had a lot of OF prospects. They actually had one decent one.

Edited July 24, 2007 by hitlesswonder

[Gregory Pratt]

That's right -- the OF situation is a great comparison.

[Gregory Pratt]

I refuse to accept your apology. You have nothing to apologize for. You are my yin, and I your yang. I am not being sarcastic, either. It's good to have someone disagree with my pessimism, but I would counter that I'm just asking, What happens if our house is really made of paper -- again? I have entirely lost faith in this organization to acquire players via trade, draft players, sign international players or free agents and the whole organization has to go as soon as John Scheurholz' deputy starts to seek a General Manager's position.

Edited July 24, 2007 by Gregory Pratt

[Balta1701]

I like Gio enough, but I wouldn't bet on him.

 

I'm only wondering, What if these guys don't pan out, like last time? Like with so many prospects everywhere! How bad are we going to be then?

 

Our "strength" in our minor league system is not really. It's just a perceived strength, and I'm really not looking forward to the day that this house of cards comes crashing down.

Couple points.

 

First of all...any team that has every one of its minor league prospects crash and burn for a couple years is going to be pretty bad. Unless you're the Yankees or BoSox, there's almost no way around it. The Sox wouldn't have won the world series without developing guys like Buehrle, Garland, McCarthy, Crede, and to a lesser extent Lee. You can find a few bargains to fill holes, but you can't do that at every position. If every one of those guys we've gotten fails, then the fact is, we're just screwed. Would the Tigers be on top if Verlander and Miller had turned into busts? Would the Indians be on top if Sizemore, CC, and Peralta hadn't stepped up?

 

The other side of the coin is of course...what happens if a few of them succeed? If Richar comes up and shows he's an actual MLB everyday player, if Floyd and Gio turn into Major league pitchers of the level they could hit, and Sweeney, Fields, and maybe one or two other guys step it up and become quality regulars? Suddenly the future looks a lot brighter.

[BearSox]

Gio's going to be a 1 or 2... I'm calling it now.

 

If him and DLS can pan out, we have a bright future for our rotation.

[Rowand44]

Yup, BP's morons make one little prediction and the world is over for us Sox fans. I'm not high on Gio and honestly don't think he's going to turn into much but to say his ceiling is that of a 3 starter is just wrong, imo.

[maggsmaggs]

If they are talking about ceiling like Rowand said, a 3 or 4 is completely wrong. He has a two plus pitches and a third average pitch. With his stuff, he has the ceiling of a a, IMO, Mark Buehrle quality ace (one who is very good, but not a true ace, but can lead a staff with strong pitchers around him.) Obviously, he isn't as durable as Mark, but that's his ceiling IMO. I also believe Gio will either be a boom or bust, meaning a top of the rotation guy or someone who gets bad by the injury big and never makes in the rotation.

[LukeGofannon]

Yup, BP's morons make one little prediction and the world is over for us Sox fans. I'm not high on Gio and honestly don't think he's going to turn into much but to say his ceiling is that of a 3 starter is just wrong, imo.

 

BP's morons? http://www.firejoemorgan.com/2007/03/compu...e-feelings.html

[witesoxfan]

Gio's going to be a 1 or 2... I'm calling it now.

 

If him and DLS can pan out, we have a bright future for our rotation.

 

I don't think there is any possible way that Gio can even be a #2. At his very best, he's probably a short Oliver Perez. Ridiculous stuff but he's not a guy you'll be able to count on from a game to game basis, and because he's 4-6 inches shorter, his ball is going to be flatter and it's going to get hit way harder.

 

DLS and Josh Fields (if you still count him as a prospect) are probably the only two players in the minor league system that can become impact players, DLS at the very least an outstanding reliever and if he can develop another pitch and further develop his control, a possible 2 starter, and Fields can become a 30-40 homer a year guy with an OPS around .850-.950. That's really it. There are guys who can undoubtedly become very good players for the Sox in the coming years, such as Gio becoming a middle of the rotation starter, Floyd being a back of the rotation starter, Russell a good reliever, Sweeney a starter and good all around player in RF, Owens a speedy backup outfielder, Gonzalez a very nice all-purpose player, etc - but the minor league system definitely needs work all the same and another impact player or two getting added within the next 6 months would be really nice. And, not that I want them to lose, but getting a top 5-10 draft pick and adding an instant stud would be awesome too.

 

The organization I like to use as an example is the DBacks; given, their scouting and development departments are a little better than the White Sox, but they went from winning the series in 01 to losing 111 games in 2004 and are back and ready to return to a potential division winning team in 2007 and beyond. If the Sox can make even a 4 year turn around just like that - and it's very possible if you trade every very good player who will not be with the team the next time they are contending in 4 years - then these doom and gloom scenarios are not going to be necessary. If no trades are made, then you can bring them up all you want to and they will probably become true because without some help, the future of the White Sox organization is looking very ugly.

[Rowand44]

BP's morons? http://www.firejoemorgan.com/2007/03/compu...e-feelings.html

Good for them. Eventually they were going to get a Sox prediction right considering they basically have the Sox finishing 4th every season. I never had much respect for that site but I lost all respect for them when they had something on their site in 05 like "Just because MLB says the White Sox have won the Central, doesn't mean they have to us," or some garbage like that.

[Heads22]

There's a good chance that at least two of JV, Buehrle, Garland, and Danks are good again next season, I agree. But look at the Sox top pitching prospects: Floyd, Haeger, Gio, Egbert. Odds are none of those guys become impact pitchers in major leagues. Non of them is Homer Bailey, and Homer Bailey is not a sure thing. None of them is Mike Pelfrey and he's had trouble pitching in the bigs. Just because they are the Sox best prospects doesn't mean they are good prospects. Gio is probably the top one and he's a B prospect and Egbert was a C+ on Sickels site. A prospects like Adam Miller of the Tribe are a long way away from contributing in the majors, think about what that means for these guys. Haeger and Floyd are on the verge of being non-prospects. Contrary to conventional wisdom, the Sox do not have good depth in starting pitching. It's like 2 years ago when everyone thought the Sox had a lot of OF prospects. They actually had one decent one.

 

Sickels is good but I don't think you should make your decisions based on a letter grade he gives them.

 

Gio's going to be a 1 or 2... I'm calling it now.

 

If him and DLS can pan out, we have a bright future for our rotation.

 

Call me when DLS gets his s*** together in AA. I don't get excited about guys until they do well there.

 

 

I don't think there is any possible way that Gio can even be a #2. At his very best, he's probably a short Oliver Perez. Ridiculous stuff but he's not a guy you'll be able to count on from a game to game basis, and because he's 4-6 inches shorter, his ball is going to be flatter and it's going to get hit way harder.

 

DLS and Josh Fields (if you still count him as a prospect) are probably the only two players in the minor league system that can become impact players, DLS at the very least an outstanding reliever and if he can develop another pitch and further develop his control, a possible 2 starter, and Fields can become a 30-40 homer a year guy with an OPS around .850-.950. That's really it. There are guys who can undoubtedly become very good players for the Sox in the coming years, such as Gio becoming a middle of the rotation starter, Floyd being a back of the rotation starter, Russell a good reliever, Sweeney a starter and good all around player in RF, Owens a speedy backup outfielder, Gonzalez a very nice all-purpose player, etc - but the minor league system definitely needs work all the same and another impact player or two getting added within the next 6 months would be really nice. And, not that I want them to lose, but getting a top 5-10 draft pick and adding an instant stud would be awesome too.

 

The organization I like to use as an example is the DBacks; given, their scouting and development departments are a little better than the White Sox, but they went from winning the series in 01 to losing 111 games in 2004 and are back and ready to return to a potential division winning team in 2007 and beyond. If the Sox can make even a 4 year turn around just like that - and it's very possible if you trade every very good player who will not be with the team the next time they are contending in 4 years - then these doom and gloom scenarios are not going to be necessary. If no trades are made, then you can bring them up all you want to and they will probably become true because without some help, the future of the White Sox organization is looking very ugly.

 

Post more.

[danman31]

I don't get excited about guys until they do well there.

Unless your name is Jack Egbert...

[Heads22]

Unless your name is Jack Egbert...

 

I was nowhere near as obsessive til he did well in AA.

 

How many times did I mention him last year? I said he was a sleeper coming into the season....

[danman31]

I was nowhere near as obsessive til he did well in AA.

 

How many times did I mention him last year? I said he was a sleeper coming into the season....

Yeah...right. You were over this guy from the day he started doing well in spot starts for Kanny.

[Heads22]

Yeah...right. You were over this guy from the day he started doing well in spot starts for Kanny.

 

 

Eh

[Chisoxfn]

Eh

I concur with Dan...you hypocrite

[Heads22]

I concur with Dan...you hypocrite

 

 

I liked him from the very beginning but I never professed my man love like I have this year.

[DBAHO]

You can't really make a judgement until he reaches the bigs and shows what he's capable of.

 

But he's certainly rebounded this season in AA, and the future is looking quite bright for him.

 

But I remember when he was traded in the 1st place, some people (read my sig) said he wouldn't even be any good. Don't think that's the case anymore........

[GoSox05]

why is it that when i read anything on pitching prospects for any team, they always say "he's a 3 or 4". I mean theres gotta be some 1or 2's out there somewhere. I'm starting to think all these "baseball experts" are complete ass-clowns.

[hitlesswonder]

why is it that when i read anything on pitching prospects for any team, they always say "he's a 3 or 4". I mean theres gotta be some 1or 2's out there somewhere. I'm starting to think all these "baseball experts" are complete ass-clowns.

Guys that project as "#1 or #2" starters are very. The whole pitching slot ranking thing is silly -- do the Royals have a #1 starter? Do the Sox? When people say #1 starter they are thinking of Santana, and that's very rare talent.

 

Anyway, Philip Hughes certainly projects as "top rotation" guy. And Lincecum in SF does as well. You just saw Andrew Miller. And Bucholz (sp?) with Boston I'm sure is being projected by many people as a top-rotation pitcher.

[hitlesswonder]

BP's morons? http://www.firejoemorgan.com/2007/03/compu...e-feelings.html

BP had no idea what they were talking about. They projected the Sox to suck and were right, but the big reason for that projection was PECOTA saying Buehrle, Garland, Danks, Contereras, and Vazquez would all have ERAs over 4.5 (or higher, I don't remember). They were right on one of those pitchers. And they failed to project the depth of suck the offense and bullpen would produce. If they take credit for an accurate prediction, that's rather intellectually dishonest -- they got the right answer but for the wrong reasons.

[Cerbaho-WG]

I'm just going to ignore the BP circle jerk because it's obvious a lot of you will just start being negative the instant a publication starts viewing our prospects poorly.

 

For the ceiling of Gio, I find it kind of pointless. Very rarely are minor leaguers pegged as #1 starters, and even more rare is when they pan out to be #1 starters. Why is this? Simple: because many pitchers who are currently aces go through a learning process and adjust at the major league level, not the minor league level. This is why you have an army of AAAA guys who can't get a major league hitter out with regularity if their lives depended on it. Of course it is important to have good stuff, which Gio has, but it's more important to know how to pitch, change speeds, and most importantly adapt to what teams are doing to you. Thus, it's a f***ing crapshoot to say player A is going to be a #1 and player B a #4. Player A could be dumb as rocks and will keep throwing his curveball with no control until he flames out of the league while player B understands how to picth. This is why I think Egbert is our best pitching prospect: because every scouting report I read says he flat out knows how to pitch with four pitches. Yes it would be nice if the threw 95+, but if you can mix four pitches and locate them well, specifically down in the zone, odds are you're going to have more success than the pitcher who just knows how to throw hard.