Next to #300...

[Gregory Pratt]

Rowand44,

 

Reading. Knowing my baseball history. Listening to discussions others have had, in print and in person.

 

There you go.

 

[AirScott]

Anybody think Peavy might have an outside shot?

I thought about him, but he's had kind of a slow start -- he's won 6, 12, 15, 13, 11, and 10 games so far in 2007. So 67 wins at 26 years of age...like everyone else mentioned in this thread, if he keeps it up (performance-wise, and just gets some more wins per season), then he could reach 300 wins. But out of the pitchers mentioned in this thread (and Johan Santana, too), maybe one or two will get to 300.

Edited August 2, 2007 by AirScott

[ChWRoCk2]

Congratulations Tom Glavine on getting 300 and better yet vs the Cubs.

 

Barring a RJ return to baseball he will probably be the last 300 win pitcher.

[BearSox]

I think there will be another 300 game winner.

[danman31]

I'm just banking on a freak of nature to come along, but there could be another change in the game that allows for 300 more easily.

[T R U]

William Bodie, 32 years old and 228 wins.. Has a great chance to get #300 before its all said and done

[witesoxfan]

William Bodie, 32 years old and 228 wins.. Has a great chance to get #300 before its all said and done

 

shut up

[Gregory Pratt]

They used to say in 1925 that the 300 game winner was over. (Says Joe Morgan.)

 

It'll happen again.

[Balta1701]

I think at some level, we've actually been spoiled by the number of 300 game winners around lately. Glavine, Maddux, Clemens, all pitching at once and getting to that plateau within a few years. There's been what, 23 of them in 100+ years? On paper, you should get 1 300 game winner every 4 or 5 years then. We've actually had more of those in the last few years, despite all of the other issues with guys going on the DL sooner, the rise of middle relief, fewer starts per year, and everything else...than there were at earlier times in baseball.

 

We're actually due for a slow stretch in terms of guys getting there, because we've been in a fast stretch lately.

[jackie hayes]

# of starts per year is down

# of innings pitched by starters is down

Managers are more likely to go to their bullpens earlier

Most players don't stick around as long as they used to, because they can retire earlier

Way more injuries, DL trips, surgery's etc for starters

 

It is just getting harder and harders statistically for pitchers to win this many games, and it is happening less and less. Heck if you want to talk about the 80s, look at how far the number of IP and starts have gone down just since then, even with still having 5 man rotations.

Looking at Glavine, though, he never did any of those things. He pitched 32-36 starts in a normal year, and never more than 36, and his high for ip was 247, which wouldn't be very strange today. The fact that there are more dl trips and surgeries doesn't mean that the same pitchers would have more injuries, more that guys who would otherwise be forced out of the league get another shot to play. And guys like Clemens and Maddux didn't want to retire, even though they definitely could have. I just don't see anything that isn't reproducible.

 

I think we've just had a string of good luck in seeing so many great pitchers on good-to-great teams in such a short period of time. People look around and don't see anyone like that right now, and jump to the conclusion that we'll never see another one. It may take a while, but there'll be another 300-game winner.

[TLAK]

Looking at Glavine, though, he never did any of those things. He pitched 32-36 starts in a normal year, and never more than 36, and his high for ip was 247, which wouldn't be very strange today. The fact that there are more dl trips and surgeries doesn't mean that the same pitchers would have more injuries, more that guys who would otherwise be forced out of the league get another shot to play. And guys like Clemens and Maddux didn't want to retire, even though they definitely could have. I just don't see anything that isn't reproducible.

 

I think we've just had a string of good luck in seeing so many great pitchers on good-to-great teams in such a short period of time. People look around and don't see anyone like that right now, and jump to the conclusion that we'll never see another one. It may take a while, but there'll be another 300-game winner.

Spot on. I just looked up the stats for the last 5 guys to make 300, Glavine, Clemens, Maddux, Ryan and Sutton. They average between 29-32 starts per year, and 199-226 innings. I think to win 300 you have to be:

 

A: A very good pitcher.

B: Play on a competitive team.

C: Avoid getting hurt.

 

Non of these are impossible in the present era.

 

The other thing the 'old school' guys like to bring up is the modern bullpens, saying in the past pitchers went longer which gave them a better chance to pick up a win in low scoring games. I buy some of that but it also gets them out of there with a good shot to get a win when they have a small lead.

 

Point A is God's gift, He must give you the arm and the brain to use it properly. Point B might actually be easier today because after 6 years you can sign with a big money (and usually very competitive) team while under the old reserve clause you were stuck with who ever drafted or signed you. Point C is a mix of a player taking care of himself, selecting the right advice to follow from all the different coach's and plain luck ---Mussina might be on this list if he didn't take that liner off the noggin in 98, or Herb Score to name two guys.

 

 

[joemg311]

Maybe Carlos Zambrano if he ends up going to a team like the Yankess.

[WCSox]

# of starts per year is down

# of innings pitched by starters is down

Managers are more likely to go to their bullpens earlier

 

And if their bullpens can hold that lead, they'll still get the win (assuming they pitch five innings). Randy Johnson had some horrible bullpens in Seattle and Arizona and he's come pretty close.

 

The flip side to more bullpen use is less wear and tear on the starter's arm, extending their careers.

 

I'll bet that people back in the early 90's were saying, "You'll never see another five years of dominance that'll match what Sandy Koufax did, especially with all of these smaller ballparks and these hitters built like Hulk Hogan nowadays." By 2003, they saw Pedro do it.

 

I definitely think that there will be another 300-game winner.

 

[Mplssoxfan]

When Early Wynn won his 300th in 1963, he was asked if he was upset that Warren Spahn had beaten him to the milestone.

 

Wynn replied, in essence, that he wasn't, because he would forever be known as the last pitcher to win 300. He used to bring it up fairly often, actually.

 

Well, it took 19 years, but Gaylord Perry won his 300th in 1982. So I wouldn't be really quick to say anything definitive on the subject. Lincecum or Hamels are two guys who could do it, if everything breaks right.

[briguy27]

Maybe Carlos Zambrano if he ends up going to a team like the Yankess.

Or the Mets, with guys like Delgado, Wright, and Reyes hitting for you.