Floyd Replaces Contreras in Rotation

[Dick Allen]

Why do you suppose we stuck with Contreras this long? He's been awful for a full year now. He's also 40 years old, not 29 or whatever Mac is. Believe me, I hope Contreras gets it together somehow enough to either be traded without eating his contract or so he can start for us next season. It's become clear that he is only getting worse, not better. After a full year's worth of starts. Not 100 innings over 3 seasons. A full year of consistent starts he has been terrible.

 

But then again, you would have never taken the chance on Contreras in the first place, because in his 170 innings between NY in 04', he posted a 5.5 ERA. Under your theory, we should have cut him loose after 04'.

Wrong again. I loved the trade when it happened despite what Baseball Tonight had to say. Jeff Brantley in particular. I never could get the image of Contreras dominating White Sox hitters in September of 2003 out of my mind. I've always been one of his biggest supporters even when a lot of people wanted him gone in 2005 and wanted Burnett in Chicago.

[iamshack]

My point is that there has been no one in the history of major league baseball who has been allowed to pitch over 100 innings at outset of his stint at the MLB level with an era of over 7. If you have a difficult time following that logic, I'm sorry. This has been what I've been trying to argue all along. I'm sorry if it's unclear.

 

Take a peak at former Dodgers prospect, Edwin Jackson, currently pitching for the Devil Rays. He's been knocked around and struggled far more than Floyd, and yet, he looks like he might be figuring things out a bit. Hell, I don't blame the DRays, they have nothing to lose right? Well either do we.

[iamshack]

Wrong again. I loved the trade when it happened despite what Baseball Tonight had to say. Jeff Brantley in particular. I never could get the image of Contreras dominating White Sox hitters in September of 2003 out of my mind. I've always been one of his biggest supporters even when a lot of people wanted him gone in 2005 and wanted Burnett in Chicago.

 

I'm not so much questioning your personal memories as I am your logic. Under your logic, we should have dumped Jose after 04'. Or AT LEAST after the first 8 starts or so of 05'.

[Dick Allen]

I'm not saying he is them. I'm saying some HOF pitchers have struggled mightily at the beginning of their careers. How would we ever know if their GM's would have thought as you do? Maddux? He should be selling used cars! Glavine? Stocking the shelves at Jewel! Bonderman? Working at Wal-Mart! Smoltz? He'd make a great novelist!

[/quote

Last I checked the organizations they struggled with in the big leagues initially didn't give up on them. You can't say the same thing about Floyd.

[Dick Allen]

I'm not so much questioning your personal memories as I am your logic. Under your logic, we should have dumped Jose after 04'. Or AT LEAST after the first 8 starts or so of 05'.

On the flip side, you would never be able to rid yourself of a pitcher because 125 innings of getting clobbered is not enough for you to judge one by. Its a case by case with me. Floyd doesn't have anything as far as "stuff" that is all that impressive. He can't throw his breaking ball which does have decent movement for strikes. AAA hitters swing, major leaguers don't. His fastball is ordinary and pretty straight. Until this season, his AAA ERA was around 6.00.

[Hideaway Lights]

Take a peak at former Dodgers prospect, Edwin Jackson, currently pitching for the Devil Rays. He's been knocked around and struggled far more than Floyd, and yet, he looks like he might be figuring things out a bit. Hell, I don't blame the DRays, they have nothing to lose right? Well either do we.

 

 

but see Jackson had a 5.46 ERA (three seasons in the NL, one in the AL, sound familiar?) for his first 112 innings of MLB experience from 2003-2006 - almost 2 runs of ERA better than Gavin Floyd has in almost exactly the same timeframe and innings

 

It's a decent example, but Floyd is still worse, and considerably, measurably so. Jackson was the laughing stock of the AL for the first half of 2007...is that really what we have been reduced to?

 

Gavin Floyd might very well go down as the worst pitcher in major league history in terms of statistics...

[iamshack]

[/quote

Last I checked the organizations they struggled with in the big leagues initially didn't give up on them. You can't say the same thing about Floyd.

 

I've already stated that the Phillies did not give Floyd the opportunity he deserved because they were not in a position to. They were consistently fighting for a postseason birth. Perhaps if the Phillies had been in the position the Cubs were with Maddux, the Braves were with Smoltz and Glavine, or the Tigers were with Bonderman, they would have given Floyd more consistent starts and he wouldn't be in the position he is now. But guess what? We are in the position where we can give him consistent starts now and so he should be given the chance finally.

 

As for Floyd's stuff, I'm sorry DA, but scouts have always thought Floyd had good stuff. The Phillies' scouts, our scouts, and scouts from plenty of other organizations. As recently as two months ago, we were told that Floyd had the best stuff of anyone in our minor league system. No disrespect intended, but I believe those people far more than what you claim after seeing him for a grand total of about 15 innings.

[iamshack]

but see Jackson had a 5.46 ERA (three seasons in the NL, one in the AL, sound familiar?) for his first 112 innings of MLB experience from 2003-2006 - almost 2 runs of ERA better than Gavin Floyd has in almost exactly the same timeframe and innings

 

It's a decent example, but Floyd is still worse, and considerably, measurably so. Jackson was the laughing stock of the AL for the first half of 2007...is that really what we have been reduced to?

 

Gavin Floyd might very well go down as the worst pitcher in major league history in terms of statistics...

 

Let's get something clear here. There is no difference between a 5.46 ERA and a 7 ERA in the major leagues. None. It's not good enough. Neither will get it done. And as far as making the leap from pitching to a 7 ERA, compared to a 5.46 ERA, it's extremely negligible. The adjustments necessary between a guy that posts a 5.46 ERA and becomes an effective major league starter and those for someone who posts a 7 ERA are pretty much the exact same.

 

As for Jackson, he is very close to turning the corner. He may be the laughing stock now, but in 3 of his last 6 starts, he's given up 1 run in 18 innings. Granted, he has been shelled in some other outings in those last 6 starts. But the logic is that there is not THAT much difference between any major league team. If he can shutout two teams for six innings and give up one run for six innings against another team, he should be able to be an effective pitcher against any other team. He just has to fix what is necessary for him to be more consistent.

 

 

[Dick Allen]

I've already stated that the Phillies did not give Floyd the opportunity he deserved because they were not in a position to. They were consistently fighting for a postseason birth. Perhaps if the Phillies had been in the position the Cubs were with Maddux, the Braves were with Smoltz and Glavine, or the Tigers were with Bonderman, they would have given Floyd more consistent starts and he wouldn't be in the position he is now. But guess what? We are in the position where we can give him consistent starts now and so he should be given the chance finally.

 

As for Floyd's stuff, I'm sorry DA, but scouts have always thought Floyd had good stuff. The Phillies' scouts, our scouts, and scouts from plenty of other organizations. As recently as two months ago, we were told that Floyd had the best stuff of anyone in our minor league system. No disrespect intended, but I believe those people far more than what you claim after seeing him for a grand total of about 15 innings.

He got 11 starts for Philadelphia last year so he did get some work. I've seen him for more than 15 innings, and unfornately had to pay to see him pitch his 2 starts this year.

[Dick Allen]

Didn't Jackson also have an injury?

[iamshack]

On the flip side, you would never be able to rid yourself of a pitcher because 125 innings of getting clobbered is not enough for you to judge one by. Its a case by case with me. Floyd doesn't have anything as far as "stuff" that is all that impressive. He can't throw his breaking ball which does have decent movement for strikes. AAA hitters swing, major leaguers don't. His fastball is ordinary and pretty straight. Until this season, his AAA ERA was around 6.00.

 

No, under my logic, I would rather find out if Floyd can realize his potential during meaningless games in a lost season than to give up on him too early and have his potential wasted. Under your theory, at worst, we lose a few games and Floyd catches on somewhere else and becomes an effective pitcher. Under mine, we lose a few games. Period. If we operate under your parameters, we probably cut our Postseason ace (Contreras) loose before he becomes that. Under mine, we lose a few meaningless games. Big difference.

[Dick Allen]

Let's get something clear here. There is no difference between a 5.46 ERA and a 7 ERA in the major leagues. None. It's not good enough. Neither will get it done. And as far as making the leap from pitching to a 7 ERA, compared to a 5.46 ERA, it's extremely negligible. The adjustments necessary between a guy that posts a 5.46 ERA and becomes an effective major league starter and those for someone who posts a 7 ERA are pretty much the exact same.

 

As for Jackson, he is very close to turning the corner. He may be the laughing stock now, but in 3 of his last 6 starts, he's given up 1 run in 18 innings. Granted, he has been shelled in some other outings in those last 6 starts. But the logic is that there is not THAT much difference between any major league team. If he can shutout two teams for six innings and give up one run for six innings against another team, he should be able to be an effective pitcher against any other team. He just has to fix what is necessary for him to be more consistent.

That's a good point about Jackson. 3 games out of 6 he's pitched well. Floyd actually had 1 inning last start where he didn't give up any runs.

[iamshack]

Didn't Jackson also have an injury?

 

No significant injuries. He's just struggled to throw strikes at times.

[Dick Allen]

No, under my logic, I would rather find out if Floyd can realize his potential during meaningless games in a lost season than to give up on him too early and have his potential wasted. Under your theory, at worst, we lose a few games and Floyd catches on somewhere else and becomes an effective pitcher. Under mine, we lose a few games. Period. If we operate under your parameters, we probably cut our Postseason ace (Contreras) loose before he becomes that. Under mine, we lose a few meaningless games. Big difference.

So pitching well in meaningless games means you can count on him when the pressure is on?

[iamshack]

That's a good point about Jackson. 3 games out of 6 he's pitched well. Floyd actually had 1 inning last start where he didn't give up any runs.

 

No, the point is that teams stuck with Jackson long enough to allow him to make that progress.

[iamshack]

So pitching well in meaningless games means you can count on him when the pressure is on?

 

I give up. Your argument is weak and you've lost it.

[Hideaway Lights]

That's a good point about Jackson. 3 games out of 6 he's pitched well. Floyd actually had 1 inning last start where he didn't give up any runs.

 

 

I really think you're stretching, iamshack. I still think Gavin Floyd has a shot to be the statistical worst pitcher in MLB history.

 

How many more starts do you give him, if he continues to pitch at a 10.00 ERA this season? Say each start from here until september he gives up 6 ER in 5 IP...you just let him keep pitching and pitching? Where do you draw the line?

[Balta1701]

 

I really think you're stretching, iamshack. I still think Gavin Floyd has a shot to be the statistical worst pitcher in MLB history.

 

How many more starts do you give him, if he continues to pitch at a 10.00 ERA this season? Say each start from here until september he gives up 6 ER in 5 IP...you just let him keep pitching and pitching? Where do you draw the line?

He gets maybe 5 of them that are that bad, and if he shows no progress, someone else gets a chance around september callup time (no reason to waste a year of arb eligibility from Gio or something like that)

[Dick Allen]

He gets maybe 5 of them that are that bad, and if he shows no progress, someone else gets a chance around september callup time (no reason to waste a year of arb eligibility from Gio or something like that)

According to Ozzie, he has to have a decent start to have more than 1.

[iamshack]

 

I really think you're stretching, iamshack. I still think Gavin Floyd has a shot to be the statistical worst pitcher in MLB history.

 

How many more starts do you give him, if he continues to pitch at a 10.00 ERA this season? Say each start from here until september he gives up 6 ER in 5 IP...you just let him keep pitching and pitching? Where do you draw the line?

 

I let him pitch ALL season long. These games mean absolutely nothing to us. And there is no one who is knocking down the door to get starts here. There is absolutely no downside if he gets shelled, other than that he obviously is probably never going to figure things out. But as far as the performance of the team, it really doesn't matter.

[Dick Allen]

 

I really think you're stretching, iamshack. I still think Gavin Floyd has a shot to be the statistical worst pitcher in MLB history.

 

How many more starts do you give him, if he continues to pitch at a 10.00 ERA this season? Say each start from here until september he gives up 6 ER in 5 IP...you just let him keep pitching and pitching? Where do you draw the line?

125 innings isn't enough, so I'm sure 175 won't be enough either. I think Floyd has to be in the rotation until at least 2010 putting up these lousy numbers before you considered removing him.

Edited August 2, 2007 by Dick Allen

[Hideaway Lights]

Dick man you are killing me in this thread

[Dick Allen]

Dick man you are killing me in this thread

As I have posted before, when you have actually paid to see Gavin Floyd pitch more than once, you don't ever want to do it again.

[BaseballNick]

125 innings isn't enough, so I'm sure 175 won't be enough either. I think Floyd has to be in the rotation until at least 2010 putting up these lousy numbers before you considered removing him.

 

 

Do you think maybe his numbers are skewed because he was called up prematurely while he was in Philly? Is it possible he needed another year or so in AAA?

[iamshack]

125 innings isn't enough, so I'm sure 175 won't be enough either. I think Floyd has to be in the rotation until at least 2010 putting up these lousy numbers before you considered removing him.

 

You just don't get it. And you never will. This season is lost. There is no one extremely deserving of getting starts in our minor league system right now. We traded for Floyd because we believe he has potential. He has put up the best numbers in AAA this season. Whether we win or lose any games he pitches for the remainder of the year has little affect on the team.

 

However, next season, I believe we can be comptetitive. All of our games will be important to try and win in the beginning of the season. I want no part of Floyd pitching next season if he has shown this season he can not get it done. In my mind, this organization will not be in a position to let him "take his lumps" next season, and so I would be fine with giving up on him after this season. But for right now, we are in a position to let him try and make progress.