Tigers Set to Sign Porcello

[CWSGuy406]

http://blog.mlive.com/tigersinsider/2007/0...llo_to_rec.html

 

:sigh

 

I'm trying to think of what to type, I really don't know what to say. Insert the obligatory "the Tigers certainly aren't afraid of going over slot" statement, or something like that...

[southsideirish71]

http://blog.mlive.com/tigersinsider/2007/0...llo_to_rec.html

 

:sigh

 

I'm trying to think of what to type, I really don't know what to say. Insert the obligatory "the Tigers certainly aren't afraid of going over slot" statement, or something like that...

 

I cant wait till next years draft / excuses on why we pass up top tier talent and go the cheap route. We should have a top 10 draft next year. Whomever is the best talent should be the person we pick. But alas, we will get some guy who got hot in the last 2 weeks of the season or a guy who is signable only.

 

Just remember when this kid is dominating, we passed on him.

 

 

 

Edited August 14, 2007 by southsideirish71

[Flash Tizzle]

I cant wait till next years draft / excuses on why we pass up top tier talent and go the cheap route. We should have a top 10 draft next year. Whomever is the best talent should be the person we pick. But alas, we will get some guy who got hot in the last 2 weeks of the season or a guy who is signable only.

 

Just remember when this kid is dominating, we passed on him.

I'll be the first to throw out this quote: "Twenty four other teams had the opportunity to sign him!"

 

Now that we have that out of the way, you better believe I won't forget we passed on him. In fact, Poreda and him are tied together in my mind -- unfair or not. Signing Griffith certaintly lessened the impact of passing on Porcello, but still -- for a minor league system such as ours to pass on such a talent because of singability concerns is ridiculous.

 

Whether Porcello ever touches a major league field, he possesses top of the rotaiton potential. An eight million dollar risk is practically nothing from my perspective. It's not going to set the Detroit franchise back fifteen years. At worst, he's a bust. At best, he pitches alongside Miller and Verlander. I doubt we're ever going to sustain success playing it safe. Next season, I want to the best player signed at our position -- Boras or not. Eight millilon dollars or not. It's enough abiding by slot recommendations or petty feuds with agents. Time to build this team from within to match those within our division.

Edited August 14, 2007 by Flash Tizzle

[WhiteSoxfan1986]

It also hurts watching Joba Chamberlain pitch for the Yanks knowing the Sox could have had him last year.

 

BTW Flash, who is that in your sig?

[danman31]

It's funny because a lot of people go crazy over paying a player 7 million over what a player is worth over the life of their deal. The difference is this guy apparently. Here's to hoping he's Joe Borchard.

[29andPoplar]

Here's a great article from Baseball America touching upon some related topics.

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/draft/?p=196

[kapkomet]

A quote from the above posted link:

 

Another scouting director said that this summer had been one of his most unproductive in terms of evaluating players for next year’s draft because of the time and energy exerted in negotiations with unsigned picks.

 

And that is a huge issue, IMO. If you get guys you know you can sign, you use less resources on what amounts to legal crap.

[Gregory Pratt]

If you get guys you "know you can sign" you generally get crap.

[whitesoxfan101]

Poreda has been too good so far for me to dread this. If Poreda can stay healthy (yes, a big if), I can see why we took him. A power sinker at 95 MPH from a 6'5 lefty doesn't grow on trees. Here's to Poreda continuing to make a lot of us look stupid.

Edited August 14, 2007 by whitesoxfan101

[WHITESOXRANDY]

It's funny because a lot of people go crazy over paying a player 7 million over what a player is worth over the life of their deal. The difference is this guy apparently. Here's to hoping he's Joe Borchard.

 

Why risk $ 7 mil. on having this kid for 4 years and beyond when you could risk $ 30 mil. on Contreras for 3 of his old age years.

 

Do you realize we could sign 4 guys like Porcello for the one deal we made for Jose. I'm just saying that the Sox should be taking risks like this.

 

By comparison, these are small risks. Compare giving $ 126 mil. to Zito, $ 118 mil. to Soriano, Jones, Hunter, etc.

 

If you can get one of the top 3 picks in the draft each year by risking $ 7 mil. wouldn't it be worth it ? I think I would do it every year.

 

[knightni]

Why risk $ 7 mil. on having this kid for 4 years and beyond when you could risk $ 30 mil. on Contreras for 3 of his old age years.

 

"Mmmmm...

 

The sarcasm is strong in this one."

 

 

[29andPoplar]

The big issue for me by end of day tomorrow is 10th round pick Brian Guinn, the SS out of the Bay area.

 

He obviously wants over slot money to sign and it doesn't look like it will happen, according to internet chatter anyways.

 

Maybe they'll get something done at the last minute because this is a kid they have close ties with. Williams and Guinn's dad knew each other growing up, the dad was a major league player and knew Alan Regier and Dave Wilder, and worked with Williams a number of years ago on some inner city baseball projects in the Bay area. Not to mention they brought Brian in to work out at U.S. Cellular before the draft.

 

Oh, and that little matter of desperately needing a good SS prospect in the system. Not to say Guinn is a sure fire guy but he profiles as staying at SS and appears to have really good tools.

 

There are certain teams who are very serious about not going over slot recommendations, count the White Sox as one. The Twins are another.

[Jake]

There are certain teams who are very serious about not going over slot recommendations, count the White Sox as one. The Twins are another.

 

And it's obvious that the Twins have a terrible farm system because they refuse to pay their draft picks.

 

[29andPoplar]

And it's obvious that the Twins have a terrible farm system because they refuse to pay their draft picks.

 

 

Not sure what this post means, but I never said nor would I ever even insinuate the Twins have a lousy farm system.

[witesoxfan]

Not sure what this post means, but I never said nor would I ever even insinuate the Twins have a lousy farm system.

 

He's just saying that you don't have to pay $7 mill for the 29th pick in the draft to have a good minor league system. If you scout well, and you develop well, your minor league system will be well.

 

If anything, he's agreeing with what you are stating.

[29andPoplar]

He's just saying that you don't have to pay $7 mill for the 29th pick in the draft to have a good minor league system. If you scout well, and you develop well, your minor league system will be well.

 

If anything, he's agreeing with what you are stating.

 

Got it, thanks for the translation ...

[southsideirish71]

h4cheng (Ottawa): Is there a reason why teams are willing to spend $50 million on Marquis, but not 5 to 10 million on a top prospect? Surely 5 Porcello clones have better chance of contributing than Marquis or Igawa, right?

 

Kevin Goldstein: Look out! People are catching on! I totally agree with this statement.

[southsider2k5]

I would say the instant returns are a big part of it. Plus you are talking about a known commodity versus someone who might go Todd Van Poppel on us.

[Balta1701]

I would say the instant returns are a big part of it. Plus you are talking about a known commodity versus someone who might go Todd Van Poppel on us.

Well, let's think for just a second. Take the $7 million. If you spent that 5 times on draft picks, then that's $35 mil and you get 5 top tier pitchers. That's basically 1 Javy Vazquez contract extension or 3/4 of a Ted Lilly or 3/5 of a Gil Meche.

 

So in other words, you have 5 different chances for a guy to turn into Javy Vazquez for the same price. There may be a higher percentage of busts than the known commodity...but you also have 5 more chances to win. It's sort of a bit of gambling I guess...do you spend your money on 1 sure thing or on 5 guys where you get a limited chance of success with each one? For a top-of-the-draft kind of guy, I thnk the math certainly favors taking your chances on the expensive guy...UNLESS you see a cheaper guy who you think could be the same or better.

 

If we lined up Porcello and Poreda and said to ourselves "well, they both throw hard, but one of them is a lefty...and the lefty will be $5 million cheaper", then that $5 mil you saved is a replacement for Uribe. You sort of have to weigh everything.

[Gregory Pratt]

Well, let's think for just a second. Take the $7 million. If you spent that 5 times on draft picks, then that's $35 mil and you get 5 top tier pitchers. That's basically 1 Javy Vazquez contract extension or 3/4 of a Ted Lilly or 3/5 of a Gil Meche.

 

So in other words, you have 5 different chances for a guy to turn into Javy Vazquez for the same price. There may be a higher percentage of busts than the known commodity...but you also have 5 more chances to win. It's sort of a bit of gambling I guess...do you spend your money on 1 sure thing or on 5 guys where you get a limited chance of success with each one? For a top-of-the-draft kind of guy, I thnk the math certainly favors taking your chances on the expensive guy...UNLESS you see a cheaper guy who you think could be the same or better.

 

If we lined up Porcello and Poreda and said to ourselves "well, they both throw hard, but one of them is a lefty...and the lefty will be $5 million cheaper", then that $5 mil you saved is Uribe's option. You sort of have to weigh everything.

 

"Signability" makes me sick.

[Heads22]

"Signability" makes me sick.

 

 

As do people speculating that this franchise has been fistf***ed because we passed over Porcello.

[danman31]

The issue everyone is forgetting is that these guys are free agents a year or two after they enter their primes so it's not like you are locking up an ace. You maybe get a 2 year rental of a 2-3 if you don't pay mega bucks later.

 

Still, these draft picks are making more than they are worth. MLB really needs to rework the draft. The worst teams don't get the best prospects.

[southsider2k5]

Well, let's think for just a second. Take the $7 million. If you spent that 5 times on draft picks, then that's $35 mil and you get 5 top tier pitchers. That's basically 1 Javy Vazquez contract extension or 3/4 of a Ted Lilly or 3/5 of a Gil Meche.

 

So in other words, you have 5 different chances for a guy to turn into Javy Vazquez for the same price. There may be a higher percentage of busts than the known commodity...but you also have 5 more chances to win. It's sort of a bit of gambling I guess...do you spend your money on 1 sure thing or on 5 guys where you get a limited chance of success with each one? For a top-of-the-draft kind of guy, I thnk the math certainly favors taking your chances on the expensive guy...UNLESS you see a cheaper guy who you think could be the same or better.

 

If we lined up Porcello and Poreda and said to ourselves "well, they both throw hard, but one of them is a lefty...and the lefty will be $5 million cheaper", then that $5 mil you saved is a replacement for Uribe. You sort of have to weigh everything.

 

So going back year by year, how many guys put up the numbers that Vazquez does annually?

 

[Chisoxfn]

So going back year by year, how many guys put up the numbers that Vazquez does annually?

Quite a few...prior to this year Vaz has been league average at best ever since he left Montreal. Not saying he never had the tools (I've always said he does) but there are boatloads of pitchers in baseball who have been better than Vaz over the last 3-4 years (albeit he's amongst the league leaders in strikeouts and innings during that span).

[CWSGuy406]

So going back year by year, how many guys put up the numbers that Vazquez does annually?

 

I'm mainly looking at first rounders here, mind you, but these guys alone are from the 2006 draft...

 

Tim Lincecum - Looks like the best pitcher in that draft.

 

Andrew Miller - Already a league average pitcher.

 

Brandon Morrow - Great reliever for Seattle. Don't know if his future is there or as a starter.

 

Ian Kennedy - Top prospect for the Yankees.

 

Joba Chamberlain - Nasty stuff, future as a starter. Already an awesome reliever.

 

Clayton Kershaw - Top five pitching prospect in all of baseball.

 

Max Sherzer - Best pitching prospect for Arizona (?).

 

------------------

 

It really grinds my gears that the Sox cheap out on the draft. They are a top third payroll team and I have to imagine their revenue is also in the top third/half, yet the Sox have to play buddy-buddy with Selig and not go over slot. It pissed me off this year that they passed on Porcello, but I think I'll throw a riot if the Sox f*** their fans over next season and go cheap with the top ten pick they in 2008. They better not go cheap there. Every first round pick signed this year, that includes Boras clients -- they better take the best player available. Who said player's agent is shouldn't even come into question. If you can't sign him, take the pick in 2009.