Rogers: Young trade haunting Sox

[Flash Tizzle]

Hmm. I think that unless you believe you couldn't sign remotely as valuable as Javy for a similar amount of money then the $30 million and Young makes the team more than marginally better. You'd essentially be able to have Young and use that money to sign a pitcher who's not much worse than Javy.

 

Your point about the farm system is well taken but I also feel that some teams who evaluate players differently wouldn't have parted with a Chris Young nearly as easily and that's interesting to me. I could be wrong, for e.g. Oakland shocked a lot of people when they moved Carlos Pena who people assumed they'd be really high on. Generally though, teams aren't trading their elite level prospects.. Kenny was either really desperate to land Vazquez, didn't regard Chris as highly as others, or both.

Here's what angers me -- why aren't other general managers "desperate" to acquire our players? Where are the pseudo Kenny Williams willing to have a deal haunt to acquire a certain player? I'm sick of these weak trade deals from our end. If your answer is, "what players have value," whose fault is it for holding onto players long enough for defencies to mount? Garland, for example. Why is he still here? Any idiot could have forcasted an evitable drop in production. Or the contract negotiations which will be mentioned ALL offseason and over the 2008 season.

 

And, to address the main point of your post, while teams may be more reluctant to trade their talented prospects, that's just too bad for Williams. It's this position he put himself in by dealing Young, watching Anderson struggle, and having few -- if any -- elite prospects of our own above A ball.

 

He needs to acquire elite prospects this offseason. I don't care how. It needs to happen. What other avenues are there for us to build the ballclub? The free agent market? Perhaps, but we're not spending enough to improve every poor position. The draft? Until we develop talent, or I know more about upcoming players in the draft, I'm not going to rely on it as our savior.

[witesoxfan]

or do the same with Jerry Owens.

 

Chris Young is like 4 times the player Jerry Owens is.

[RockRaines]

Chris Young is like 4 times the player Jerry Owens is.

probably 100 times. Jerry has yet to show the ability to be a major league starter. Chris young shows flashes of being a mlb superstar

[whitesoxmanager]

Chris Young is like 4 times the player Jerry Owens is.

 

Aaron Rowand & Chris Young in the same outfield would've made me hate to miss a pitch. We will eat crow for a long time the way that KW handled Arow over FREAKIN thanksgiving...we deserve to suck after that karma. btw, jim thome bores the hell out of me. what can he do? heck Arow has better power numbers...HA HA HA! hey KW thanks for making me a temporary Phils fan!

[NorthSideSox72]

Aaron Rowand & Chris Young in the same outfield would've made me hate to miss a pitch. We will eat crow for a long time the way that KW handled Arow over FREAKIN thanksgiving...we deserve to suck after that karma. btw, jim thome bores the hell out of me. what can he do? heck Arow has better power numbers...HA HA HA! hey KW thanks for making me a temporary Phils fan!

You know, I agree Thome has been a bit disappointing, but he gets waaaaaay more flak than his numbers deserve.

 

1. The guy still has an .913 OPS, and hits .284 w/RISP (.368 w/2 out and RISP)

 

2. He is still far better than Everett was at DH in 2005

 

3. His numbers this year are very similar or even slightly better than Thomas', despite comparisons otherwise

 

I really don't get all the Thome hate. If he gets a few more days off each week next year with Dye at DH a couple days, I think we'll see a very good Thome.

 

[Vance Law]

Our ballpark does seem to give up a lot of homers

 

fixed

 

[CWSGuy406]

You'd essentially be able to have Young and use that money to sign a pitcher who's not much worse than Javy.

 

Really? Now I think you're stretching things a bit. Even after Vazquez' last start, he still ranks 22nd in baseball in Pitcher VORP. What pitcher could you get for ~$10 million a season that would be a top 25 pitcher in all of baseball? I'd even take that further and argue Vazquez is better than several of the pitchers ahead of him -- what would Javier Vazquez be doing if he was pitching in the PETCO? Or even just in the NL?

 

If Vazquez happens to pitch like he has this year over the life of the contract, there's only a handful of pitchers who I'd rather have over him.

[Gregory Pratt]

Really? Now I think you're stretching things a bit. Even after Vazquez' last start, he still ranks 22nd in baseball in Pitcher VORP. What pitcher could you get for ~$10 million a season that would be a top 25 pitcher in all of baseball? I'd even take that further and argue Vazquez is better than several of the pitchers ahead of him -- what would Javier Vazquez be doing if he was pitching in the PETCO? Or even just in the NL?

 

If Vazquez happens to pitch like he has this year over the life of the contract, there's only a handful of pitchers who I'd rather have over him.

 

What the hell kind of question is that (boldened)? He's been in the NL before and we've seen what he's done.

Edited August 28, 2007 by Gregory Pratt

[Gregory Pratt]

On top of that, I challenge anyone to find me a FA pitcher on the market this year, better than Vazquez, for any cost....

 

Bartolo Colon!

[CWSGuy406]

What the hell kind of question is that (boldened)? He's been in the NL before and we've seen what he's done.

 

Yeah, he was there for one season (not counting the Montreal stufff). I know you're not a DIPS guy but I would contend that Vazquez was pretty unlucky in Arizona -- his K/BB ratio was better than 4-to-1. Also, I thought I remember seeing a stat that Vazquez HR/FB ratio was significantly higher than the average.

[SkokieSox]

With the FA pitching market as it is this offseason coming up, whose to say we couldn't get a talented player like Young in a trade? That was basically the meat of the deal for Javy, and even though I don't believe the Sox move him, his value could bring in a lot. Young's going to be a great player, at least he's prepped to be, but Javy could bring in a lot of talent. I think this deal still favors the Sox...

[Gregory Pratt]

Yeah, he was there for one season (not counting the Montreal stufff). I know you're not a DIPS guy but I would contend that Vazquez was pretty unlucky in Arizona -- his K/BB ratio was better than 4-to-1. Also, I thought I remember seeing a stat that Vazquez HR/FB ratio was significantly higher than the average.

Well if you prefer his computer-generated statistics to what he's done through his career, feel free. I was just pointing out that he wasn't so hot in the NL and I still contend that this year is more an aberration and a worse pitcher is underneath his 2007. He's not a bad pitcher, but he's not a genuine one or two. He'll never be one. Good season this year? Sure. Has he been good since last August? Absolutely. But still, I don't believe he'll be what he is again next year, and it's up to him to go out there and succeed. He won't have Bill James' computers on the mound with him.

Edited August 28, 2007 by Gregory Pratt

[Vance Law]

Really? Now I think you're stretching things a bit. Even after Vazquez' last start, he still ranks 22nd in baseball in Pitcher VORP. What pitcher could you get for ~$10 million a season that would be a top 25 pitcher in all of baseball? I'd even take that further and argue Vazquez is better than several of the pitchers ahead of him -- what would Javier Vazquez be doing if he was pitching in the PETCO? Or even just in the NL?

 

If Vazquez happens to pitch like he has this year over the life of the contract, there's only a handful of pitchers who I'd rather have over him.

 

Very good points.

 

Vazquez for Young was a good trade. If you have just won the World Series, take a gamble with some of your future in order to help yourself now and try to win again. Vazquez has been the better and more valuable baseball player this year. He obviously was last year as well (Young in the minors), though he was around a league average starter (you need to account for the ballpark, pitching at Comiskey is not the same as pitching at Petco). We had just won the World Series solely because of our pitching, all season and in the playoffs. Pitching is a crapshoot. Williams fortifies the starting rotation with another innings horse with great stuff who's had some awesome seasons. Duque was unable pitch more than 4 innings by the end of 05 and he sure seemed done (though he's proved he's not, he surely wouldn't put up the numbers he is if he were still in the AL...and at Comiskey). Smart move to me. Go with the surer bet at starter, risk a prospect to win now. Williams improved the offense (Thome + BAnderson 06 beats Everett + Rowand 05 by a longshot), and (on paper) the pitching in the offseason coming off the World Series.

 

People also seem to assume we misevaluated and gave away the wrong player in Young, when it is likely the case that Arizona demanded Young. It was clear that Young was the best of he, Sweeney, Anderson, Owens over the long haul, but that one of them would (and still may) be a valuable player. Could Anderson put up a .736 OPS like Young has this year if he's not injured? I think he could get close.

 

[SkokieSox]

You would have $25 million a year to find one. Even KW probably could do that.

Not in the market upcoming. Its dry as a bone

[Jeremy]

Here's what angers me -- why aren't other general managers "desperate" to acquire our players? Where are the pseudo Kenny Williams willing to have a deal haunt to acquire a certain player? I'm sick of these weak trade deals from our end. If your answer is, "what players have value," whose fault is it for holding onto players long enough for defencies to mount? Garland, for example. Why is he still here? Any idiot could have forcasted an evitable drop in production. Or the contract negotiations which will be mentioned ALL offseason and over the 2008 season.

 

And, to address the main point of your post, while teams may be more reluctant to trade their talented prospects, that's just too bad for Williams. It's this position he put himself in by dealing Young, watching Anderson struggle, and having few -- if any -- elite prospects of our own above A ball.

 

He needs to acquire elite prospects this offseason. I don't care how. It needs to happen. What other avenues are there for us to build the ballclub? The free agent market? Perhaps, but we're not spending enough to improve every poor position. The draft? Until we develop talent, or I know more about upcoming players in the draft, I'm not going to rely on it as our savior.

 

That's a pretty good post. I wish I had more answers to your questions (though maybe some of them are rhetorical). I guess one answer to the reason our players aren't fetching more is that we're very rarely looking to sell. Clearly, the plan to rebuild while we continue to win has gone poorly. Trading Freddy was a wise move but swapping out BMac for Danks only made us a couple years younger and none of the other veterans have brought back strong returns. I think maybe you're right to suggest that Kenny is reactive instead of proactive in most cases when it comes to dealing players.

 

I suppose it's an oft raised critique of Kenny but he seems to be veteran happy which has always surprised people since he was previously the head of player development. It's as though we were operating on the old Yankees model even after the Yankees had decided to abandon it. It seems like maybe Kenny was a bit late to the party or just had unlucky timing when it came to how to deal with young players. He waited until the value of young players seemed to be increasing around the league to start acquiring them.

 

I also wonder sometimes if he tries to hard to build the team in the mold of its manager. Maybe if he wasn't worried about building a team for Ozzie he'd be less enamored with non-power guys like Sweeney and Owens and would've acquired some position players in addition to pitchers when he traded BMac and Freddy.

[ZoomSlowik]

Well if you prefer his computer-generated statistics to what he's done through his career, feel free. I was just pointing out that he wasn't so hot in the NL and I still contend that this year is more an aberration and a worse pitcher is underneath his 2007. He's not a bad pitcher, but he's not a genuine one or two. He'll never be one. Good season this year? Sure. Has he been good since last August? Absolutely. But still, I don't believe he'll be what he is again next year, and it's up to him to go out there and succeed. He won't have Bill James' computers on the mound with him.

 

You're conveniently ignoring a few solid years in Montreal where he was one of the few bright spots on a bad team. Heck, he posted a 3.24 ERA in 230 innings in 2003 and only won 13 games. It's not like he's your typical one-year fluke starter that's getting lucky with mediocre stuff and stranding a lot of runners. There's a very good chance he continues to do well for the near future, as it's clear that his control has been better the last year or so after tweaking his delivery a bit.

 

While it'd be really nice to have Young back, Vazquez is their 2nd best starter right now and is locked up for a while.

Edited August 28, 2007 by ZoomSlowik

[Gregory Pratt]

You're conveniently ignoring a few solid years in Montreal where he was one of the few bright spots on a bad team. Heck, he posted a 3.24 ERA in 230 innings in 2003 and only won 13 games. It's not like he's your typical one-year fluke starter that's getting lucky with mediocre stuff and stranding a lot of runners. There's a very good chance he continues to do well for the near future, as it's clear that his control has been better the last year or so after tweaking his delivery a bit.

 

While it'd be really nice to have Young back, Vazquez is their 2nd best starter right now and is locked up for a while.

 

He's definitely talented, but I'm just being critical of certain things that have been said in this thread and such.

[CWSGuy406]

He won't have Bill James' computers on the mound with him.

 

Ahh, I always love people who don't understand the statistics to make the "calculator" or "computer" joke -- you even managed two in one post! That's totally orginal... High five, Gregory!

Edited August 28, 2007 by CWSGuy406

[Dogfood22]

This thread should be titled "s***ty Articles Haunt Rogers' Credibility." Is there anything this guy doesn't b**** about?

 

I agree with those who say the Vazquez trade was a good one. KW won a WS and did what he had to in order to improve the starting rotation and improve the team's chances of making the postseason. Also KW must have seen that a dropoff from the starting staff was possible if not probable, so at the time adding a veteran innings eater in Vazquez was going to give them something more dependable than McCarthy/El Duque and also save the bullpen some work. It takes balls to trade a prospect like Young for a shot at the present. I'd much rather have a ballsy GM willing to go the extra mile when the opportunity is there than have some cocksucker whose big winter additions after a 95-win season are Paul Byrd + Jason Michaels or Sidney Ponson + Ramon Ortiz.

 

The only reason some douchebag sportswriter, and a bad one at that if I may say so, can complain to anyone is because the Sox didn't repeat in '06. If the Sox had won it all again it would have been very well worth it. As it is, considering Javy's contract and the state of the upcoming FA market without Burls or Zambrano available and turd-filled hotpockets like Kyle Lohse getting paid out the cornhole, Javy's value is going to be higher this year than it was when we traded for him in the first place. If KW wants to avenge a trade that really wasn't a bad trade at all, he can do it this offseason and actually come out ahead.

Edited August 29, 2007 by Dogfood22

[caulfield12]

This thread should be titled "s***ty Articles Haunt Rogers' Credibility." Is there anything this guy doesn't b**** about?

 

I agree with those who say the Vazquez trade was a good one. KW won a WS and did what he had to in order to improve the starting rotation and improve the team's chances of making the postseason. Also KW must have seen that a dropoff from the starting staff was possible if not probable, so at the time adding a veteran innings eater in Vazquez was going to give them something more dependable than McCarthy/El Duque and also save the bullpen some work. It takes balls to trade a prospect like Young for a shot at the present. I'd much rather have a ballsy GM willing to go the extra mile when the opportunity is there than have some cocksucker whose big winter additions after a 95-win season are Paul Byrd + Jason Michaels or Sidney Ponson + Ramon Ortiz.

 

The only reason some douchebag sportswriter, and a bad one at that if I may say so, can complain to anyone is because the Sox didn't repeat in '06. If the Sox had won it all again it would have been very well worth it. As it is, considering Javy's contract and the state of the upcoming FA market without Burls or Zambrano available and turd-filled hotpockets like Kyle Lohse getting paid out the cornhole, Javy's value is going to be higher this year than it was when we traded for him in the first place. If KW wants to avenge a trade that really wasn't a bad trade at all, he can do it this offseason and actually come out ahead.

 

I don't think Ryan can magically spend millions he doesn't have...and the Indians rotation isn't THAT bad, I'll admit that Jason Johnson was a stretch last year, but you can't make a Pinto into a BMW 7 series.

 

As always, it will come down to pitching...with Russell looking like he's slated for the bullpen, the end of the Sweeney future apparently, or Haeger, or Anderson.

 

Simply, Egbert, Phillips (the one seemingly nobody in the Sox organization wants to succeed) or Gio has to step up and be a legitimate 3 caliber starter. And that's asking for a LOT. I've given up even considering Masset, Broadway, McCullough, Floyd or Sisco, although I am sure I will hear Floyd's name in association with the starting rotation next spring again.

 

Luckily, I've been in the Philippines and now in China (since July 23rd) so I've missed seeing the live carnage, following through MLB Extra Innings and cbssportsline.

 

I guess nobody really saw the wheels completely coming off the Contreras train like they have, QUITE SO SOON...going from the best pitcher the AL to one of the worst in the span of less than two seasons.

 

I also see the drumbeat for Torii Hunter and don't see the different philosophy taking hold of this organization...if anything, KW is going backwards in time, to the 2002-04 teams with Ordonez, Valentin, Carlos Lee and Thomas.

 

And we still don't know anything about Joe Crede. By the way, please get what we can for Jon Garland. I've never seen such an average pitcher so overvalued in the recent history of this organization...

[Wanne]

By the way, please get what we can for Jon Garland. I've never seen such an average pitcher so overvalued in the recent history of this organization...

 

Amen. I'd still give my left nut if Garland finished strong and he could be shipped to Seattle for Balentien. Second destination...Angels.

[caulfield12]

Amen. I'd still give my left nut if Garland finished strong and he could be shipped to Seattle for Balentien. Second destination...Angels.

 

I know what's coming next...an attack on Vazquez for being the second most underachieving/overrated Sox pitcher...fought off by the Roto players who love his peripherals, K/9IP, IP/H, WHIP, VORP, etc. The VORP could say he's one of the best pitchers in baseball and half the fans would have already decided he's a #4 starter, no matter what the season's evidence to the contrary is.

 

The problem, of course, is that Buehrle is more like a great #2, and we our ace, El Gran Titan de Bronze, disappeared into the hazy Havana air.

 

Which leaves us hoping that Danks can somehow morph into a Buehrle impersonator and become a legit #3 instead of a fading #5.

 

Heck, I bet many Sox fans are starting to clamor for B-Mac again after his run of quality starts, juxtaposed with Danks' slide and Masset's exile to Oblivionville, Population 4 (Diaz/Adkins/Barcelo/Parque).

 

[Jeremy]

Really? Now I think you're stretching things a bit. Even after Vazquez' last start, he still ranks 22nd in baseball in Pitcher VORP. What pitcher could you get for ~$10 million a season that would be a top 25 pitcher in all of baseball? I'd even take that further and argue Vazquez is better than several of the pitchers ahead of him -- what would Javier Vazquez be doing if he was pitching in the PETCO? Or even just in the NL?

 

If Vazquez happens to pitch like he has this year over the life of the contract, there's only a handful of pitchers who I'd rather have over him.

 

That's a pretty enormous if, especially considering that he hasn't pitched that well over the life of his time with us. Javy's ERA has been about 4.4 with us and considering that he's 31 and hence on the downside of his prime, I don't think there are many great reasons to suspect he'll post an ERA under 4 for the rest of his time with us. I qualified my statement by saying I believe we could sign someone who's not a lot worse, not necessarily someone as good. In other words, I think that for $10 million a season we could've signed someone who would post an ERA around 4.5, park effects and all. I stand by that.

[Jeremy]

Vazquez for Young was a good trade. If you have just won the World Series, take a gamble with some of your future in order to help yourself now and try to win again. Vazquez has been the better and more valuable baseball player this year. He obviously was last year as well (Young in the minors), though he was around a league average starter (you need to account for the ballpark, pitching at Comiskey is not the same as pitching at Petco). We had just won the World Series solely because of our pitching, all season and in the playoffs. Pitching is a crapshoot. Williams fortifies the starting rotation with another innings horse with great stuff who's had some awesome seasons. Duque was unable pitch more than 4 innings by the end of 05 and he sure seemed done (though he's proved he's not, he surely wouldn't put up the numbers he is if he were still in the AL...and at Comiskey). Smart move to me. Go with the surer bet at starter, risk a prospect to win now. Williams improved the offense (Thome + BAnderson 06 beats Everett + Rowand 05 by a longshot), and (on paper) the pitching in the offseason coming off the World Series.

 

I agree with those who say the Vazquez trade was a good one. KW won a WS and did what he had to in order to improve the starting rotation and improve the team's chances of making the postseason. Also KW must have seen that a dropoff from the starting staff was possible if not probable, so at the time adding a veteran innings eater in Vazquez was going to give them something more dependable than McCarthy/El Duque and also save the bullpen some work. It takes balls to trade a prospect like Young for a shot at the present. I'd much rather have a ballsy GM willing to go the extra mile when the opportunity is there than have some cocksucker whose big winter additions after a 95-win season are Paul Byrd + Jason Michaels or Sidney Ponson + Ramon Ortiz.

 

Vazquez had more short term value but I think people are overstating this point greatly. Young was at most a year away and if our team was on the verge of repeating last year then we figured to be a strong contender this season. Moreover, Young had just come off a monster AA season so the possibility that he could contribute last season - at least down the stretch run - seemed like a reasonable one. In hindsight, he probably would've given us more production that we got out of the CF spot last season.

 

Also, not to sound like a broken record but Vazquez had a substantial salary last season. If we hadn't acquired him we had not only the option of throwing BMac and/or El Duque out there, we would've also had around $8 million to play around with in the free agent market or in a trade for a player who would cost less in terms of talent. It's certainly not as though we would've been throwing a guy with a 5.5 ERA out there every fifth day without Vazquez. We had solid options and a lot of people were baffled that Kenny was so adamant about brining in another starter.

 

People also seem to assume we misevaluated and gave away the wrong player in Young, when it is likely the case that Arizona demanded Young. It was clear that Young was the best of he, Sweeney, Anderson, Owens over the long haul, but that one of them would (and still may) be a valuable player.

 

I absolutely think that AZ demanded Young; that's what I would've done. However, that doesn't mean that they couldn't have been talked down or that we had no choice but to pull the trigger.

 

Could Anderson put up a .736 OPS like Young has this year if he's not injured? I think he could get close.

 

I consider myself a Brian Anderson fan but 1) he's never been as highly regarded a prospect as Young was when we traded him last season 2) Anderson put up a .649 OPS when healthy last season despite being a year older than Young is this season 3) it's unclear how much injuries have affected Anderson's performance when he's been deemed healthy enough to take the field this season.

 

If the Sox had won it all again it would have been very well worth it. As it is, considering Javy's contract and the state of the upcoming FA market without Burls or Zambrano available and turd-filled hotpockets like Kyle Lohse getting paid out the cornhole, Javy's value is going to be higher this year than it was when we traded for him in the first place. If KW wants to avenge a trade that really wasn't a bad trade at all, he can do it this offseason and actually come out ahead.

 

Can't you use that logic to rationalize any move that improves the team though, no matter how slight the short term gains and how massive the long term losses? Despite the euphoria of the '05 Championship, I didn't see our chances of repeating as all that great, certainly not great enough to pass up a lot of future gains for moderate improvement in the next season or two.

 

Young was rated as a top 5 prospect in baseball by some outlets coming into this season. You really think Kenny could move Vazquez for someone like Millege or Barton in the off season? I would be absolutely amazed if that's the case. If so, Kenny shouldn't waste any time picking up the phone...

 

Not in the market upcoming. Its dry as a bone

 

Then trade for someone overpriced on a team who's looking to cut salary. People are almost talking as though you'd be unable to acquire a pitcher with an ERA under 5 this off season which is a huge stretch.