My offseason predictions

[29andPoplar]

To add something, I wish I had the time and capability to do it, but I would be interested in seeing the track record of Boras clients taken in the 1st and 2nd rounds of the drafts from say '98 to '04. Did they make it or did they not.

 

Of course whether a player makes it or not isn't totally predicated on the player. A team's player development abilities factor in as well but it would still be interesting to see how many turned out.

[Dick Allen]

I've looked at the top 10 draft picks the past 5 years. Even in the top 10, its a crapshoot. There aren't that many players contributing much to winning yet. There are a few real good ones. I think its time to bust out the Lose for Pedro t-shirts.

[Flash Tizzle]

I've looked at the top 10 draft picks the past 5 years. Even in the top 10, its a crapshoot. There aren't that many players contributing much to winning yet. There are a few real good ones. I think its time to bust out the Lose for Pedro t-shirts.

12 games remaining. At worst, we're three losses out after tonight. It's possible, but I'm not counting on it. It would be tremendous for our future, so therefore, we can't count on it to happen.

[greg775]

but I'd much rather see the Sox spend a lot on a first rounder with major superstar potential like Borchard had than spend an assload of cash on another Jamie Navarro, Jose Contreras, etc.

 

Not meant to pile on, but Jose Contreras was worth it.

I'll take a World Series and he was instrumental.

Watching some of the 2005 highlight things on youtube reminds me how great that Series title was.

We may not see another WS title in our lifetimes and we don't get it w/out Jose probably.

So I'd say he was worth the money.

[witesoxfan]

Not meant to pile on, but Jose Contreras was worth it.

I'll take a World Series and he was instrumental.

Watching some of the 2005 highlight things on youtube reminds me how great that Series title was.

We may not see another WS title in our lifetimes and we don't get it w/out Jose probably.

So I'd say he was worth the money.

 

He was worth his original Yankees contract. His contract extension has proven to be a pretty s***ty deal thus far.

[Dogfood22]

Not meant to pile on, but Jose Contreras was worth it.

I'll take a World Series and he was instrumental.

Watching some of the 2005 highlight things on youtube reminds me how great that Series title was.

We may not see another WS title in our lifetimes and we don't get it w/out Jose probably.

So I'd say he was worth the money.

At the time it would have been nice to offer Jose something like $6mil/year plus performance incentives over a two year deal, but you just can't do that stuff anymore. Not saying that the Sox were wrong for signing Jose, I'm just saying that the current state of the market forces teams who want to contend to hand out contracts that have a good chance of backfiring. Because of that I think it makes the draft more important, not only because it can provide quality players to step in for the league minimum, but it gives the club the chance to deal prospects and win derbys for impact-level arbitration eligible players.

Edited September 18, 2007 by Dogfood22

[Dogfood22]

If the rationale is they are acting small market because they don't take Boras clients, well, that is the age old argument. The last three they took off the top of my head were Jeff Weaver, Bobby Hill, and Bobby Seay. One pretty good pitcher although not great, and two marginal major leaguers. Nothing special.

 

To me it is very important you get your guys signed and playing right away. You have to constantly influx talent, you really need to sign your first 10 or so picks. Many here say "go over slot, go over slot", I hope I never see them complain about ticket prices or beer prices. Every team operates on a budget, some teams generate more revenue like the Red Sox, Cubs, Yankees. The anamoly appears to be the Tigers and I for one will be curious how long they continue to take the approach they did this year. I admire them but I wonder if their approach will change when inevitably some of these big bonus guys crash and burn, it happens to every team.

 

I agree with most of this so I'll just quote what I'll comment on.

 

I was making reference to Boras clients and Boras demands. To me, an organization that acts like a large market franchise in the draft takes the best available player every time. It recognizes that these players are going to want lots of money and maybe even spots on the 40-man, but it doesn't snub it's nose at what appears to be premium talent just because. IIRC, wasn't Weaver like a 3rd or 4th rounder? And wasn't Hill taken even later? I believe Seay was a first rounder. Actually, I just checked and Weaver and Hill were both second rounders. The Sox will take chances like this later yet they really don't like going over slot. This is another thing that seperates us from the others. I think we do a pretty good job in the later rounds though. Our last "untouchable" yet traded prospects were Young and McCarthy, both taken very late, and our best offensive prospect Carter was a 15th rounder.

 

Obviously teams operate on a budget. But, just look at this year for example. Supposedly the Sox were going to spend more money after dealing Freddy. Did that happen? No, so they decided to go into the season with some financial flexibility. That's fine. But then when June came around and it was clear to anyone with eyes that the Sox weren't going to make the playoffs, did they use that money in the draft? Nope. And aside from that, look at some of these people on our roster right now that we are paying. We have some good players but none of them sans Buehrle, Vasquez, maybe AJ, and Dye (if you consider the $7mil he's on now and not his $11mil/year extension) are putting up numbers that justify their pay. Jenks and Fields are playing well above their pay, but that's about it. Everyone else is either a disappointment, a development, or a flat out waste of money. If drafting a Boras client every now and then means sacrificing an Alex Cintron, Rob Mackowiak, or Darin Erstad every now and then I say go right ahead.

 

On the Tigers, you have to like what they are doing. At best they have some great players that will be making very little their first few years while keeping the Tigers in contention, and at worst they have some toolsy prospects to trade if something doesn't work out. There are a lot of great Tigers fans out there and I think that as long as they win they will have the revenue to continue what they are doing.

 

Also I hope you are right about this new "safety net" meaning bigger risks with greater potential rewards in the first round, but I'll believe it when I see it.

Edited September 18, 2007 by Dogfood22

[RockRaines]

But then when June came around and it was clear to anyone with eyes that the Sox weren't going to make the playoffs, did they use that money in the draft? Nope.

Also I hope you are right about this new "safety net" meaning bigger risks with greater potential rewards in the first round, but I'll believe it when I see it.

well, our first round draft pick this year has been called "the most dominant pick in the draft."