Jerry Owens

[Gregory Pratt]

That's not saying he sucks -- that's saying that his raw power, which has been at driving opposite field shots far, has been great, but other than that, he hasn't done much. He fields like a butcher and his avg./obp are abysmal. I'm just saying that next year, he's not going to get pitched middle-out, and he won't be able to go out, flick his bat and slam it into right. He's going to have to learn to hit the inside pitch and particularly the fastball, which is definitely a HUGE weakness in his offensive game.

 

I don't know if you've noticed, but if you can't hit a fastball, you're going to suck at baseball when the game figures it out. I, and I'm sure others, have noticed that Fields' been a little rough lately (I think he was 2-40) and I think you can see that they're already starting to pitch him in and the results aren't there. If Fields can't hit a fastball, and doesn't speed up his bat, he's going to bust. I'm not saying he sucks or HAS TO, because HE'S BAD, I'm saying he will suck if he doesn't learn how to hit a fastball. That's hardly what you're presenting it to be.

 

It's all well and good to be enthusiastic about our young players. Like I've said, I really like Fields because he has good power and speed, though it isn't really utilized. But the truth is unequivocal: if you can't hit a fastball, you're doomed. And so he'd better learn how to hit a fastball, particularly middle in, or he's not going to last long.

[Gregory Pratt]

Example:

Here you say his only game is power, and that as soon as the league figure out this hole, he's going to suck. Your words - sucking at baseball.

 

I'm not sure if you've noticed, but, all four of these players have continued to get better as the season has gone on. I don't expect anyone to think that these guys are all going to be big time star players, but, I do think that their performance thus far tells you they MIGHT be. Fortunately, most baseball men are willing to give players that chance to perform.

 

By the way, Owens is six for his last ten in steals and his slugging is still abysmal. Give him his shots, by all means -- we haven't got anything else in the minors -- but let's not pretend that he's lighting up the world.

[southsider2k5]

That's not saying he sucks -- that's saying that his raw power, which has been at driving opposite field shots far, has been great, but other than that, he hasn't done much. He fields like a butcher and his avg./obp are abysmal. I'm just saying that next year, he's not going to get pitched middle-out, and he won't be able to go out, flick his bat and slam it into right. He's going to have to learn to hit the inside pitch and particularly the fastball, which is definitely a HUGE weakness in his offensive game.

 

I don't know if you've noticed, but if you can't hit a fastball, you're going to suck at baseball when the game figures it out. I, and I'm sure others, have noticed that Fields' been a little rough lately (I think he was 2-40) and I think you can see that they're already starting to pitch him in and the results aren't there. If Fields can't hit a fastball, and doesn't speed up his bat, he's going to bust. I'm not saying he sucks or HAS TO, because HE'S BAD, I'm saying he will suck if he doesn't learn how to hit a fastball. That's hardly what you're presenting it to be.

 

It's all well and good to be enthusiastic about our young players. Like I've said, I really like Fields because he has good power and speed, though it isn't really utilized. But the truth is unequivocal: if you can't hit a fastball, you're doomed. And so he'd better learn how to hit a fastball, particularly middle in, or he's not going to last long.

 

I know it was probably before you were born and all, but Robin Ventura also had an 0-47 streak his rookie year in the majors...

 

EDIT, make that 0-41 with 25 errors... you get the point.

[Gregory Pratt]

"Before you were born." That's cute. I'll remember that next time you say something about the Constitution in the Filibuster!

 

I'm well-aware of Ventura's history, but that's a rather irrelevant comment. My point is: his early success has definitely been tempered of late and it has everything to do with pitchers figuring him out. People who can't hit the fastball don't survive in the major leagues, and that's what he has to do, then. What that's got to do with Robin Ventura is rather irrelevant.

 

Besides, Ventura had a far better resume when he came up than Fields, though that's just nit-picking.

[Gregory Pratt]

PS: Stavo was awful to start his season. Did YOU give up on HIM@!?!?!1111

[southsider2k5]

"Before you were born." That's cute. I'll remember that next time you say something about the Constitution in the Filibuster!

 

I'm well-aware of Ventura's history, but that's a rather irrelevant comment. My point is: his early success has definitely been tempered of late and it has everything to do with pitchers figuring him out. People who can't hit the fastball don't survive in the major leagues, and that's what he has to do, then. What that's got to do with Robin Ventura is rather irrelevant.

 

Besides, Ventura had a far better resume when he came up than Fields, though that's just nit-picking.

 

The point that you was so easily missed is that slumps during rookie years happen. They happen to some of the best hitters around. Using a rookie year slump as a disqualifier of future preformance is short sighted at best.

 

Also if you really want to nitpick, Robin had way less of a resume when he came up to the majors. He had one season at AA, and that was it. He numbers were less than impressive.

 

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/v/robin-ventura.shtml

 

Fields numbers pretty much blew away Ventura's minor league numbers at every stop Josh had in the minors, and he also got about 1000 ABs down there.

 

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/F/Josh-Fields-1.shtml

[RockRaines]

Oh by the way, that .313 SLG% would be dead last amongst ALL outfielders (both leagues) and 3rd worst in baseball with just Vizquel and Punto being more inept, that's right Jason Kendall has a higher slugging percentage.

I guess thats a big deal, but for a leadoff hitter its not as bad. Since he can steal so many bases, each one of those is basically a double. But I understand where the worry is coming from.

[Harry Chappas]

The point that you was so easily missed is that slumps during rookie years happen. They happen to some of the best hitters around. Using a rookie year slump as a disqualifier of future preformance is short sighted at best.

 

Also if you really want to nitpick, Robin had way less of a resume when he came up to the majors. He had one season at AA, and that was it. He numbers were less than impressive.

 

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/v/robin-ventura.shtml

 

Fields numbers pretty much blew away Ventura's minor league numbers at every stop Josh had in the minors, and he also got about 1000 ABs down there.

 

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/F/Josh-Fields-1.shtml

 

Wasn't Ventura the college baseball player of the decade and the second best (Ty Griffin was #1 according to he cubs) positional prospect when he was drafted? His resume gave him the credabiltiy and he was rushed a little more but the comparison is there. I feel 3B is a fairly easy position until you get to the majors where you then need to become acclimated see Crede and Aramiz Ramirez.

[29andPoplar]

The question here is the same one Guillen and Williams addressed last week. Can the White Sox carry Owens, Richar, Fields in key roles in 2008 and expect to contend. As I recall Williams was non commital as he should be, Guillen seemed to express doubts.

 

The positive sign is I can see all three of these guys settling in and getting more confidence. The flip side is it's September and the pressure is completely off.

 

 

[Balta1701]

I guess thats a big deal, but for a leadoff hitter its not as bad. Since he can steal so many bases, each one of those is basically a double. But I understand where the worry is coming from.

If Owens could put up a .350 OBP or better...and hold that >75% SB %age, I really am not sure I care about the lack of slugging. We have enough 40 home run guys on this team to make up for him not hitting that many. His OBP post all star is .340 right now, it's .500 in September...and despite him having a few more CS's in the past few games, he's still 28/35 on the season for a 80% clip. Depending on what we do about that black hole in the 2 spot next year...I'll take a decent OBP in front of Jim and Paul and be very happy with it.

[witesoxfan]

The point that you was so easily missed is that slumps during rookie years happen. They happen to some of the best hitters around. Using a rookie year slump as a disqualifier of future preformance is short sighted at best.

 

Also if you really want to nitpick, Robin had way less of a resume when he came up to the majors. He had one season at AA, and that was it. He numbers were less than impressive.

 

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/v/robin-ventura.shtml

 

Fields numbers pretty much blew away Ventura's minor league numbers at every stop Josh had in the minors, and he also got about 1000 ABs down there.

 

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/F/Josh-Fields-1.shtml

 

A 1.300+ career OPS in 3 years of college baseball is less impressive than 3 years of 1.000 OPS? Hell, Ventura had 1 full season in the minors before he was called up to Chicago; I don't think a comparison between the two is even relevant.

[RockRaines]

If Owens could put up a .350 OBP or better...and hold that >75% SB %age, I really am not sure I care about the lack of slugging. We have enough 40 home run guys on this team to make up for him not hitting that many. His OBP post all star is .340 right now, it's .500 in September...and despite him having a few more CS's in the past few games, he's still 28/35 on the season for a 80% clip. Depending on what we do about that black hole in the 2 spot next year...I'll take a decent OBP in front of Jim and Paul and be very happy with it.

This is why I actually think he is an ideal #9 hitter. But lets say Jerry keeps developing like he is and puts up a .276 .370 with 40+ sb's and I will take that in the leadoff spot everyday

[Balta1701]

This is why I actually think he is an ideal #9 hitter. But lets say Jerry keeps developing like he is and puts up a .276 .370 with 40+ sb's and I will take that in the leadoff spot everyday

If he puts up a .370 he damn well better steal more than 40 bases. In a full season, I'd expect no less than 60 with that .350 OBP I'm hoping for.

[RockRaines]

If he puts up a .370 he damn well better steal more than 40 bases. In a full season, I'd expect no less than 60 with that .350 OBP I'm hoping for.

Sorry, i was being VERY conservative. lets say 60 then.

[Kalapse]

So now Jerry Owens has the ability to become '98 Kenny Lofton or Jose Reyes? When you get into the .370 OBP (100+ ISOd) 60 SB territory that's exactly who you're comparing him to. You're now saying he has the potential to be one of the elite leadoff hitters of his generation.

[Steve9347]

I can't believe some people actually see a .370 obp out of Jerry Owens... you should be happy with .330 for christ's sake.

[RockRaines]

So now Jerry Owens has the ability to become '98 Kenny Lofton or Jose Reyes? When you get into the .370 OBP (100+ ISOd) 60 SB territory that's exactly who you're comparing him to. You're now saying he has the potential to be one of the elite leadoff hitters of his generation.

No, Im saying if that happens then I would ignore his lack of SLG.

 

I swear nobody reads posts anymore.

[29andPoplar]

I can't believe some people actually see a .370 obp out of Jerry Owens... you should be happy with .330 for christ's sake.

 

Agree on this too. I am not seeing a consistent ability to draw walks and he never did it that well in the minor leagues either. Yes he is improving incrementally but is this the guy for CF on a contender. I am not so sure.

 

By the same token I realize it's doubtful they will have all highly paid veterans in the '08 starting lineup. What I can see is trying some of these kids and getting the right type of veteran to either platoon or take over if necessary. Someone not named Erstad though.

[Kalapse]

And if Josh Fields puts up a .600 SLG next year I'll ignore his .300 OBP.

 

If Joe Crede hits .350 I'll ignore his .040 ISOd.

[RockRaines]

I still envision Richar as our leadoff hitter of the future FWIW. Though it may be way in the future.

[Balta1701]

Agree on this too. I am not seeing a consistent ability to draw walks and he never did it that well in the minor leagues either. Yes he is improving incrementally but is this the guy for CF on a contender. I am not so sure.

Are you and I looking at the same stat sheet?

 

I did a simple calculation for JO of walks per plate appearance in his years in the minors. Here's what they look like:

2003 A- 0

2004 A 0.099137931

2005 AA 0.090592334

2006 AAA 0.092975207

MLB 0

2007 AAA 0.111111111

MLB 0.072555205

Post All Star 0.9542

Sept. Only 0.145161

 

He has been consistently just under a walk every 10 plate appearances in the minors, and was well above that this year before being called up. His numbers since the All Star Break have been quite consistent with his performance in the minors with regards to patience as well, and they are clearly improving also.

 

For reference, I performed the same analysis on Kenny Lofton. His career number for that same metric, walks per plate appearance, is .104. In most of his seasons, he's been right around .1. In only about 3 seasons did that number go up beyond .1, and in recent years it has been significantly down from there, below what Owens has put up since the AS break.

 

[29andPoplar]

He has been consistently just under a walk every 10 plate appearances in the minors, and was well above that this year before being called up. His numbers since the All Star Break have been quite consistent with his performance in the minors with regards to patience as well, and they are clearly improving also.

 

For reference, I performed the same analysis on Kenny Lofton. His career number for that same metric, walks per plate appearance, is .104. In most of his seasons, he's been right around .1. In only about 3 seasons did that number go up beyond .1, and in recent years it has been significantly down from there, below what Owens has put up since the AS break.

 

He strikes out twice as much as he walks. For a potential leadoff hitter that some are either annointing him, or wish him to be, not good.

 

If he has good pitch selection and can work the count like Lofton can and he can hit for average like Lofton can, that's one thing. He hasn't thus far and he didn't in the minors.

 

They should be shooting higher than Jerry Owens as a starting CF on a team they want to contend, and I believe they will.

Edited September 18, 2007 by 29andPoplar

[NorthSideSox72]

He strikes out twice as much as he walks. For a potential leadoff hitter that some are either annointing him, or wish him to be, not good.

 

If he has good pitch selection and can work the count like Lofton can and he can hit for average like Lofton can, that's one thing. He hasn't thus far and he didn't in the minors.

 

They should be shooting higher than Jerry Owens as a starting CF on a team they want to contend, and I believe they will.

If someone is getting on base at a high clip, the K's are not all that important.

 

I agree with you by the way, they should be shooting higher. But... its all about budget. If the choices for SS and CF are, for example:

 

Eckstein and DeJesus

 

or

 

Furcal and Owens

 

I'll take the latter. I would of course like to upgrade both, but if getting Furcal means having Owens in CF, I don't think that's such a huge sacrifice.

 

[RockRaines]

Furcal and owens Head and shoulders. Furcal #1 Owens #9

Edited September 18, 2007 by RockRaines

[southsider2k5]

He strikes out twice as much as he walks. For a potential leadoff hitter that some are either annointing him, or wish him to be, not good.

 

If he has good pitch selection and can work the count like Lofton can and he can hit for average like Lofton can, that's one thing. He hasn't thus far and he didn't in the minors.

 

They should be shooting higher than Jerry Owens as a starting CF on a team they want to contend, and I believe they will.

 

They can shoot as high as they want, its a matter of what they can afford. With the amount of payroll they already have on the 2008 teams, they are going to have to have two to three guys in the starting line up making close to league minimum to make their budget work. They also are going to have to deal at least one of Contreras or Garland to make things work. Get used to seeing guys like Owens, Richar, and Fields, because they are going to be a necesity for the Sox in 2008, not matter what people want.