Can this team compete in 2008?

[Steve9347]

OK, so we've all felt the doom and gloom about this team and its particularly barren minor league system... but one thing is certain, Kenny Williams is DETERMINED to compete next year. Now, this may involve a couple of iffy free agent acquisitions (I don't know how we avoid signing Omar Vizquel, though it's the LAST thing I want this team to do.) It also seems like a lock that the Sox are going to get one of Hunter/Rowand/Fukudome (in that order). I must say I am at least intrigued by the idea that Fields and Richar might not miss. I don't see Pods coming back unless Crede suffers a setback of some sort... the Sox seem to be preparing for Crede at 3B next year.

 

So, with what we can only hope will be a retooled bullpen, and a crop of young starting pitchers mixing with a rebounding Jose Contreras and an ever improving Javier Vazquez, can this team compete for an AL Central title next year? I think we saw this year that the Tigers patchwork offense (I-Rod/Maggs/Casey/Sheffield) is going to need a retooling, but their pitching should keep them in it for a long time. Cleveland seems to be in it for the long haul, Minnesota seems to be ready for a major organizational shakeup... the Royals are the Royals. We could be looking at a relatively winnable division.

 

So, can the Sox win the 90 or so games they need to to win next year?

 

My projections, yikes do I hate the top of this lineup.

 

LINEUP

 

SS Vizquel

2B Richar

DH Thome

1B Konerko

RF Dye

CF Hunter (it its Fukudome or Rowand, they'd move around in the lineup)

3B Crede

C Pierzynski

LF Fields

 

Now, Fields might end up closer to the top of the lineup at some point next year.. but it's fairly obvious we don't have a legit #2 hitter in the works for next year (now if we signed Rowand or Fukudome, they'd look better in the 2 hole... but e-gads, Vizquel will be leading off!), however, you can't argue with an established bat the likes of which will be at the bottom of our lineup.

 

ROTATION

Buehrle (lock)

Vazquez (lock)

Contreras/Garland (whichever doesn't wind up dealt...lock)

Danks (lock)

Floyd/Gonzalez/other?

 

CLOSER

Jenks

 

I'm not bothering with the bullpen.

 

To be honest, I think this team can max at like 83 wins and a 2nd or 3rd place finish in the division in 2008. Just my ramblings... a lot of my projections could change based on an ok return for Garland (willy tavares/rafael furcal would help the top of the lineup.)

 

let the tearing to threads begin!

 

[Harry Chappas]

This team needs its all-stars to be all-stars. The Indians went into the season with the same questional players at second and third and a worse outlook in the pen as the Sox will have next year. If the players that are paid to produce produce and there is more health they will be fine. They need to sign some bench players that can produce for modest salaries not the Mackowiak's of April and May and Alex Cintron of the whole season. I feel the entire division will regress next year and if the Sox make some moves, they will be right back near the top.

 

I think A-Rod and Rowand sit atop their shopping list along with a couple of Japanese players.

[Al Lopez's Ghost]

No.

 

Too many holes, too many question marks. Contreras, who knows. Danks still unproven (but promising), Vazquez in and out career wise, the 2007 team has had no bench, Thome is getting older, you hope Dye and Konerko can remain productive, and the best thing you said was I won't bother about the bullpen. That kind of is how this whole mess started.

 

We can spend our way into mediocrity (mediocrity is a step up right now), but we won't be a good baseball club in 2008.

[ZoomSlowik]

A lot of things are going to have to go our way to be a legit contender next year. To be significantly over .500 at least one young starter is going to have to step up and be a league average or better starter and eat some innings, the Jose that we've seen a bit more of recently has to be there, the bullpen can't be as putrid as it was much of the year, and someone needs to be able to get on base at the top of the lineup. If we don't get any of those things to happen we're probably around 70 wins, if we get some but not others maybe closer to 80.

 

That said, I don't know if it's possible for them to be WORSE than they are this year barring injuries to key guys. As long as we're not starting 4 or 5 of Owens, Uribe, Richar, Gonzalez, and to a lesser extent Fields (gotta love the power, OBP still needs work) on a regular basis, the lineup virtually has to get better. Plus everyone but a handful of guys has performed worse than expected this season, you'd think by the law of averages at least one or two will improve. Hopefully we can get a good return for Garland as well and possibly get some guys that will either help now or in the near future.

Edited September 18, 2007 by ZoomSlowik

[RockRaines]

That lineup is terrible. No speed whatsoever, a TON of k's and zero contact. If we are going out for a SS, it better be someone that can actually lead off and steal bases. I honestly do see us making a stab at Furcal. CF is obviously a place where KW is looking to make a splash considering its basically one of the only positions that we dont have a real incumbent. Lastly that rotation is awful and we need to not put so much emphasis on the young guys, and Contreras needs to go if only for his contract.

[Balta1701]

If Omar Vizquel is our SS...no.

 

For this team to compete next year...a lot of things are going to need to go right. First of all...Buehrle and Vazquez will have to have years equal to or better than this one. Second...Contreras will need to not suck, because he's still untradeable to my eyes. Danks will have to have a much better year, which is entirely possible, but who knows how likely. And Floyd, who I'm already writing in as the 5th starter and I think KW is also...will have to at least be average (i.e. sub 5 ERA) and eat innings. All of those could happen...you can judge the likelihood yourself.

 

In the bullpen...Jenks needs to continue to develop and stay healthy. Logan and Wasserman need to continue to develop as specialist guys. Thornton and MMac, who I think we have to hold onto based on contracts, past performance, and a lack of replacements, need to be VASTLY better, and MMac needs to stay healthy. The failure of those 2 guys cost us more games this year than anyone outside of Erstad/Podsednik. And we still need 1 more guy who can throw with his right arm. It could well be a guy we already have, I'm not ruling out Aardsma, Masset, or Haeger just yet...but if we keep throwing out relievers who put up ERA's over 6, then the season is over before it starts.

 

In the lineup...I think Jerry Owens has probably convinced management to give him a shot next year as a starter, and I'm really not sure it's a mistake. He's actually developing better than I thought. Fields and Richar are similarly developing faster than I expected. We need Crede back and performing well. We need JD to not struggle with a half season of injuries that kill his performance at the plate. And we need to find a bloody shortstop not named Vizquel or Eckstein.

 

A lot of things need to go right for it to happen. But as one of this page's optimists, I'm cautiously optimistic about the future...esp. with what we've seen from Owens and Richar recently.

[RockRaines]

I think its about time to see if we can snag something of better value than AJP as well. Our lineup is extremely plodding with Crede back. Out of that entire lineup, we have maybe 1 player who is a contact hitter, the rest k like there is no tomorrow. Fields and Richar are the only real speed threats and that doesnt say much.

[Steve9347]

I don't see how the Sox don't offer Garland for Furcal, and how the Dodgers don't accept... it's a perfect match.

[Balta1701]

I don't see how the Sox don't offer Garland for Furcal, and how the Dodgers don't accept... it's a perfect match.

The Sox could very well be looking for more than that in exchange for a reliable starting pitcher, given Furcal's contract...and I wouldn't blame them for trying.

[Kalapse]

The Sox could very well be looking for more than that in exchange for a reliable starting pitcher, given Furcal's contract...and I wouldn't blame them for trying.

It's more than Just his contract, he's been pretty damn mediocre this year. His power and speed numbers are WAY down from his career averages.

[RockRaines]

It's more than Just his contract, he's been pretty damn mediocre this year. His power and speed numbers are WAY down from his career averages.

Truth. So you would like he may improve. Dodgers fans are saying they just want someone to take his contract and get something in return. I would say Garland may even be too much for Furcal

 

his splits are so freaking weird this year. He only hits at home, against lefties, during the day, on grass.

 

But I bet lots of people on here like this split:

 

VS LHP .318 .363

Edited September 18, 2007 by RockRaines

[NorthSideSox72]

Discussing whether or not this team is a contender in 2008 is pointless until about March. We aren't talking about a club that will be almost the same - we're talking about one that will probably have major changes.

 

Right now, this team could literally be a title contender or the worst team in baseball, depending on what happens in the offseason.

 

Get back to this in March, once the dust settles.

 

[Rowand44]

Discussing whether or not this team is a contender in 2008 is pointless until about March. We aren't talking about a club that will be almost the same - we're talking about one that will probably have major changes.

 

Right now, this team could literally be a title contender or the worst team in baseball, depending on what happens in the offseason.

 

Get back to this in March, once the dust settles.

That.

 

Kenny might need to pull a rabbit out of his hat, but who the heck knows.

[Rowand44]

Rabbit= Finding someone to take the whole Contreras contract. Williams does that, it makes the off-season so much easier.

No doubt.

[NorthSideSox72]

Rabbit= Finding someone to take the whole Contreras contract. Williams does that, it makes the off-season so much easier.

That would be one hell of a rabbit.

 

Great. Now I have White Rabbit stuck in my head.

 

[Jeremy]

To be honest, I think this team can max at like 83 wins and a 2nd or 3rd place finish in the division in 2008. Just my ramblings... a lot of my projections could change based on an ok return for Garland (willy tavares/rafael furcal would help the top of the lineup.)

 

I pretty much agree. If you get the '05 Crede and the '07 Hunter, you might inch up towards 85 wins. I could also see that lineup winning around 77 games though. Contreras (I don't think he can be dealt) probably posts an ERA over 5 and there's a good chance whoever takes the 5th spot has growing pains like Danks and posts an ERA around 5. The OBP is improved but probably still not good.

[thedoctor]

i'd say probably not. i can see the performance of the offense improving, but the performance of the starting pitching dropping. i don't think we'll have a brutal season like this one, but probably one where we are only peripherally in the race.

 

if, as most expect, either garland or contreras are traded you are pretty much committed to going with danks and floyd in the last two rotation spots. i expect danks to improve, but only to the point of being a (maybe) .500 pitcher. floyd? who the hell knows what to expect out of him.

[BearSox]

I'm not going to go into details, but my ideal lineup that might be possible would be something like:

 

1. Figgins, CF

2. Furcal, SS

3. Thome, DH

4. Konerko, 1B

5. Dye, RF

6. Pierzynski, C

7. Fields, LF

8. Crede, 3B

9. Richar, 2B

 

I could see that team competing. However, it depends on how much it would cost to get both Furcal (Contreras + prospect(s)?), and Figgins (prospects?).

[greg775]

I can't see the Sox contending next year w/out major changes to the everyday lineup.

Again tonight, just four hits thru eight innings.

We will actually need players at ss, 2B, LF, CF who can actually get on base.

I'm assuming Crede will be at 3B and Fields in left which will be a start.

The bullpen remains a potential disaster.

Unless we acquire new ss, new 2B, new CF, and of course need bounceback years from Konerko, AJP.

Can't see it all coming together so quickly after this disasterous season.

Remember the starting pitching was pretty good this year the first half and we still sucked.

 

[BearSox]

Richar is fine at 2B... so no, we don't need a new 2B.

[greg775]

Hope you are right. He's not hitting much more than his weight, is he?

There are way too many automatic outs in the lineup which means long losing streaks and lots of games like tonight.

4 hits? What an embarrassment.

Edited September 19, 2007 by greg775

[Kalapse]

Hope you are right. He's not hitting much more than his weight, is he?

There are way too many automatic outs in the lineup which means long losing streaks and lots of games like tonight.

4 hits? What an embarrassment.

Richar has a .756 OPS that's pretty damn close to league average (and better than Iguchi). If you can get that from a 25 year old who's making league minimum and playing some good defense you should be happy.

[BearSox]

I have a couple fun facts for you... did you know Richar is actually hitting for a better average then Josh Fields, and that tonight, Richar accounted for one of those 4 hits?

 

Also, Richar is anything BUT an automatic out.

[greg775]

I didn't know he was hitting better than Fields.

I hope he's the answer.

I hope the infield of Crede, new ss, Richar and Konerko is productive next year.

And the outfield of Fields, Hunter and Dye produces as well as AJP/Hall at catcher.

We obviously need some pop in the lineup.

[Marky Mark]

Yeah Richar will be fine at 2B, when moving up to a new level players don't always take off right away, some start out slow and make the adjustments to get where they need to be. Richar was a little slow when he moved up to AAA this year, but he made his adjustments and was hitting .325 in June, and .355 in July. I can see him being a very solid replacement for Iguchi next year.

 

We really do need speed in the lineup though and because of that I think we've got to stick with Owens. Furcal is on the decline, and is not as easy to trade for as people imagine.