Sox Vs. Royals

[santo=dorf]

To think the Sox were considered completely stupid to get rid of Josh Fogg after his awesome September 2001.

[Dick Allen]

To think the Sox were considered completely stupid to get rid of Josh Fogg after his awesome September 2001.

Charlie Haeger Sept 2006

September 0.82 1 0 1 1 5 0 0 11.0 4 3 1 0 5 15 .111

A WHIP below 1.00, more than a strikeout an inning and a .111 BAA.

[santo=dorf]

Charlie Haeger Sept 2006

September 0.82 1 0 1 1 5 0 0 11.0 4 3 1 0 5 15 .111

A WHIP below 1.00, more than a strikeout an inning and a .111 BAA.

Jon Rauch supposedly looked ready for next year in September 2002. Arnie Munoz was talked about being a member of the bullpen for 2005 because he had an ERA of 1.80 in September

[Gregory Pratt]

You say that like it's a bad thing

[NorthSideSox72]

I find this similar to the draft choice discussion. In that case, people point out rightly that sometimes, lower picks do better than higher ones, and that a high pick does not guarantee a star player. That is true, but misses the point - the frequency of star players is higher, as you go up the draft. Here, there are some people pointing out rightly that some players have had September performances early in their career, then flopped. We could just as easily name the Jack McDowell's of the world too, who had great late season callups and then solid careers. But the point is, if a player can show some success - and Floyd has done that for 2 months now (not just September), then they are more likely to succeed again later. It is not a guarantee - it just makes it more likely.

 

But if folks want to go ahead and protect their original predictions by nitpicking negative scenarios, go right ahead. Same for people who are saying that because Floyd has had success before, he is a lock to be good. But it isn't that simple, of course.

 

[BearSox]

To think the Sox were considered completely stupid to get rid of Josh Fogg after his awesome September 2001.

I think they still do... Fogg and Wells for Ritchie, ugh that was horrid. And IIRC, Fogg was in the running for NL ROY for the 1st half of that season.

[santo=dorf]

I'm not completely writing off September performances and I don't think Contreras should start opening day again and Uribe should be our shortstop.

 

It's just funny when we traded for Floyd everybody felt and quoted Philly scouts that he was weak mentally and couldn't handle pressure, yet here he is pitching pretty well in September for a team that has been dead since Memorial Day. I'm sorry, but this performance doesn't mean squat for 2008 and beyond.

 

 

[witesoxfan]

I'm not completely writing off September performances and I don't think Contreras should start opening day again and Uribe should be our shortstop.

 

It's just funny when we traded for Floyd everybody felt and quoted Philly scouts that he was weak mentally and couldn't handle pressure, yet here he is pitching pretty well in September for a team that has been dead since Memorial Day. I'm sorry, but this performance doesn't mean squat for 2008 and beyond.

 

So Gavin's performance right now means nothing towards his future with the White Sox organization?

 

If you actually believe that Gavin is pitching with no pressure on him, I'm going to find myself in complete disagreement with you. It's a job for next year, and it's an opportunity to prove himself to a major league team; if he doesn't prove himself in the least, he's back to trying to prove himself to any of 30 MLB teams again next year.

 

 

 

I also don't understand the knocking of Rauch or Fogg either...they have been very productive pitchers in their own rights. Rauch has turned himself into a cog in the Nationals bullpen, and Josh Fogg has put up a career 4.90 ERA over 1000 innings. If Gavin Floyd can give the Sox 4.90 over 1000, I'd be extremely happy.

 

[beautox]

I think it means you can definitely trade one - just not both. Because given Floyd's performances, I think he has shown there is a good chance he will be a serviceable starter. Add that to a few guys like Gio and others who will be vying for it, and I would feel confident that one of them will be OK. Now, trading both, that might be taking a big risk.

 

I say roll the dice, its win, win either way.

 

If KW thinks he can do a 180 with this ship he needs to get a real CF and SS and the bullpen has to turn the corner on its own; they're so fickel to begin with that Mmac and Thornton could easily turn it around or bust again.

 

I'd have no problem going into '08 with Javy and Mark as the only "vets"; if we compete great, if not its old news and we get another top 10 pick, ill still be showing up to the games watching "the kids" in early april.

 

'08

 

SP - Buehrle

SP - Vazquez

SP - Danks

SP - Floyd

SP - Broadway/Egbert/Gio/Haeger

 

DH - Thome

C - AJP

1B - PK

2B - Richar

SS - Furcal

3B - Crede

LF - Fields

CF - Rowand

RF - Dye

 

 

[santo=dorf]

So Gavin's performance right now means nothing towards his future with the White Sox organization?

 

If you actually believe that Gavin is pitching with no pressure on him, I'm going to find myself in complete disagreement with you. It's a job for next year, and it's an opportunity to prove himself to a major league team; if he doesn't prove himself in the least, he's back to trying to prove himself to any of 30 MLB teams again next year.

I also don't understand the knocking of Rauch or Fogg either...they have been very productive pitchers in their own rights. Rauch has turned himself into a cog in the Nationals bullpen, and Josh Fogg has put up a career 4.90 ERA over 1000 innings. If Gavin Floyd can give the Sox 4.90 over 1000, I'd be extremely happy.

How did Rauch and Fogg do the year aftr their solid Septembers? I don't care about their mediocre careers and their situations aren't the same because they weren't ou of options like Gavin. How do you know Gavin is pitching for a spot? What about Spring Training? The writing is on the wall for Garland and/or Contreras to be traded opening up another spot.

 

I wouldn't be satisfied with 1000 innings of an NL ERA of 5.00, which is why the pathetic Pirates organization dumped Fogg. I would also hold higher expectations for a number 3 overall pick especially with how people are having a such a hard on for a top draft position right now.

[Dick Allen]

So Gavin's performance right now means nothing towards his future with the White Sox organization?

 

If you actually believe that Gavin is pitching with no pressure on him, I'm going to find myself in complete disagreement with you. It's a job for next year, and it's an opportunity to prove himself to a major league team; if he doesn't prove himself in the least, he's back to trying to prove himself to any of 30 MLB teams again next year.

I also don't understand the knocking of Rauch or Fogg either...they have been very productive pitchers in their own rights. Rauch has turned himself into a cog in the Nationals bullpen, and Josh Fogg has put up a career 4.90 ERA over 1000 innings. If Gavin Floyd can give the Sox 4.90 over 1000, I'd be extremely happy.

Check Gavin Floyd, September 2004. What did that mean in 2005?

[Yossarian]

Floyd has pitched better of late, but with his track record, he's got a long way to go before winning some of us over. Contreras has pitched much better lately too. Is he ready to be the same guy he was from mid season 05 to mid season 06? Or is it all just a mirage for the two of them? There are so few dependable pitchers in today's game that it's hard to tell. Like I said before, it looks like Cooper got Floyd to make a slight change in his delivery. Does that mean Coop is going to be the same miracle guy he was in 05?

[Gregory Pratt]

Check Gavin Floyd, September 2004. What did that mean in 2005?

 

he's a rookie. he's still learning.

[witesoxfan]

Check Gavin Floyd, September 2004. What did that mean in 2005?

 

How about K-Rod in 2002? Or Maggs in 1997? Or even a guy like Johnny Estrada in 2003?

 

I'm not about to compare Gavin to any of those, because none of those comparisons hold true; neither do the comparisons to Fogg, Rauch, or even Floyd himself (because there's no way you can even come close to justifying that Floyd is the same pitcher now that he was in 2004). All cases should be looked at separately and no conclusions should be drawn because of what other people did.

 

I don't think anyone has suggested that Floyd is going to be a good pitcher because of a good September, just that it's not meaningless. All we've said is that if he finished the season well, he should be given the first crack at a shot in the rotation next year, and nothing more. If he earns it, it's his.

 

(BTW, I'm not exactly sure how you can suggest that Floyd was ready - or whatever you're suggesting - based on his numbers in 2004. Good ERA, but his control was terrible and he had a freakishly low home run rate; in comparison, he has a freakishly high home run rate this year - 2.4 HR/9. With a home run rate like that, it's a minor miracle that his ERA is under 6; a lot of that probably has to do with his excellent control thus far. Another good sign - regardless of how many 410 foot flyballs he's given up in Comerica - is that his home run rate has gone down as the season has progressed: 5 HR/9 in July, 2.2 HR/9 in August, and all the way down to 0.5 HR/9 in September)

[Dick Allen]

How about K-Rod in 2002? Or Maggs in 1997? Or even a guy like Johnny Estrada in 2003?

 

I'm not about to compare Gavin to any of those, because none of those comparisons hold true; neither do the comparisons to Fogg, Rauch, or even Floyd himself (because there's no way you can even come close to justifying that Floyd is the same pitcher now that he was in 2004). All cases should be looked at separately and no conclusions should be drawn because of what other people did.

 

I don't think anyone has suggested that Floyd is going to be a good pitcher because of a good September, just that it's not meaningless. All we've said is that if he finished the season well, he should be given the first crack at a shot in the rotation next year, and nothing more. If he earns it, it's his.

 

(BTW, I'm not exactly sure how you can suggest that Floyd was ready - or whatever you're suggesting - based on his numbers in 2004. Good ERA, but his control was terrible and he had a freakishly low home run rate; in comparison, he has a freakishly high home run rate this year - 2.4 HR/9. With a home run rate like that, it's a minor miracle that his ERA is under 6; a lot of that probably has to do with his excellent control thus far. Another good sign - regardless of how many 410 foot flyballs he's given up in Comerica - is that his home run rate has gone down as the season has progressed: 5 HR/9 in July, 2.2 HR/9 in August, and all the way down to 0.5 HR/9 in September)

His home run rate has decreased in Sept. I believe. If Gavin Floyd was a White Sox prospect in 2004 and he had the Sept. he had, he would be called at worst a #3 next year by many here. I don't know how you cannot compare Gavin Floyd to Gavin Floyd, or come to the conclusion he is a better pitcher now as opposed to then. Its very possible he's worse. My argument is against those who base this month's results as indication of what next year he will be. I have no problem with the White Sox giving him a shot next spring. How he throws then is far more important than how he throws now.

Edited September 20, 2007 by Dick Allen

[NorthSideSox72]

His home run rate has decreased in Sept. I believe. If Gavin Floyd was a White Sox prospect in 2004 and he had the Sept. he had, he would be called at worst a #3 next year by many here. I don't know how you cannot compare Gavin Floyd to Gavin Floyd, or come to the conclusion he is a better pitcher now as opposed to then. Its very possible he's worse. My argument is against those who base this month's results as indication of what next year he will be. I have no problem with the White Sox giving him a shot next spring. How he throws then is far more important than how he throws now.

That part there is what makes no sense. You think that ST games, where no one cares if they win or lose and teams have few starters in the lineup all game, are MORE important than actual games in-season during August and September? I fail to see how that is possible.

 

I do think he needs to show up in ST and look good. But that is just one part of his evaluation - this part now is just as important if not more.

 

[29andPoplar]

I do think he needs to show up in ST and look good. But that is just one part of his evaluation - this part now is just as important if not more.

 

Right, and the brass is looking at Floyd's entire body of work this season in making an evaluation.

 

Namely, things like how has he progressed through the entire year, how well has he implemented their suggestions (actually mandates), how has he improved the mental aspect of the game, and what are his results in the big leagues this year.

 

While he is not guaranteed a spot in 2008, basing it entirely on March '08 results is not something they will do. They have stated over and over and over how difficult it is to judge pitching results in Tucson. There are other things they can evaluate but results in Tucson are taken with a huge grain of salt.

[Dick Allen]

That part there is what makes no sense. You think that ST games, where no one cares if they win or lose and teams have few starters in the lineup all game, are MORE important than actual games in-season during August and September? I fail to see how that is possible.

 

I do think he needs to show up in ST and look good. But that is just one part of his evaluation - this part now is just as important if not more.

What was more indicative of David Aardsma's 2007 performance, the way he pitched in Sept. 06 or the way he pitched in March? There isn't enough evidence or enough of a track record for Floyd to fall back on if spring training doesn't go good for him. Danks made the team based on spring training. Esteban Loaisa made the team in 2003 based on spring training. Gil Heredia had a shot that year, and failed. Both had a longer record of having at least some success at the major league level. This is a team that is not rebuilding. If that were the case, the story could be different.