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so it's pretty likley we'll finish close to 72-90...


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QUOTE(Buehrle>Wood @ Sep 22, 2007 -> 07:29 PM)
Someone should bump that thread so we can all laugh at ourselves. I'm sure I had some gems in there.

Here is one thread devoted to the subject:

 

Baseball Prospectus

 

Here's another interesting preseaon thread I came upon. Its contents oppose Hawk's belief that no one could have seen our troubles prior to April:

 

Why Crucify The Whole Team Already?

 

I love this quote of mine, first posted on February 26th:

 

(After providing BP's projected standings)

 

Looks like we're expected to post the fourth worst record in the majors next season. OMG, we'll finally get a Top 10 pick in the amateur draft according to BP!!!!11 Although we all know once the Sox get a Top 5 pick, whenever that day arrives, the draft will be universally panned as one of the worst in recent memory.

 

And while the draft hasn't been panned as 'one of the worst in recent memory,' recent comments from Baseball America concerning a potentially weak class is of no shock to me.

Edited by Flash Tizzle
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QUOTE(max power @ Sep 22, 2007 -> 09:55 PM)
I dunno, this team stays even a little bit healthier, and BP is pretty far off. I'm not going to take my hat off to them, as it was mostly luck.

 

But injuries are factored into their prediction. IIRC, health and age were the two main reasons they predicted 72 wins.

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QUOTE(southsider2k5 @ Sep 23, 2007 -> 04:03 PM)
Bp also picked us for 4th place in 2005. Take it for what it is worth.

I get the book every year, and in their team write ups they make a prediction on the upcoming season. 2005 I think the quote was "the window has closed". They really liked their chances last season, and this year said they weren't going to win anything. A lot of their staff is in Chicago, so I think the White Sox and Cubs get scrutinized a little more by them, but all in all for the other teams, they have a pretty good track record. BTW, they didn't think the Cubs would be .500 this season.

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QUOTE(Dick Allen @ Sep 23, 2007 -> 04:09 PM)
I get the book every year, and in their team write ups they make a prediction on the upcoming season. 2005 I think the quote was "the window has closed". They really liked their chances last season, and this year said they weren't going to win anything. A lot of their staff is in Chicago, so I think the White Sox and Cubs get scrutinized a little more by them, but all in all for the other teams, they have a pretty good track record. BTW, they didn't think the Cubs would be .500 this season.

 

The sad thing is that the Cubs barely are .500, and probably wouldn't be if they didn't play in the house of horrors that is the NL Central.

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QUOTE(Dick Allen @ Sep 23, 2007 -> 04:09 PM)
I get the book every year, and in their team write ups they make a prediction on the upcoming season. 2005 I think the quote was "the window has closed". They really liked their chances last season, and this year said they weren't going to win anything. A lot of their staff is in Chicago, so I think the White Sox and Cubs get scrutinized a little more by them, but all in all for the other teams, they have a pretty good track record. BTW, they didn't think the Cubs would be .500 this season.

 

I don't get where people's contempt for BP/BA stems from. Do people expect a 100% CORRECT rate?

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I don't get where people's contempt for BP/BA stems from. Do people expect a 100% CORRECT rate?

It's their arrogance and unwillingness to accept the results. They come up with a model and make excuses when it doesn't work out. You should read the whiny article they put out after the Sox technically clinched in Detroit yet their system mathematically said the White Sox still only had a 90ish% chance of winning the division.

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Looking at it, it seems to me that they'll be very close or right on for a few teams, be totally wrong on a few teams, and be kinda sorta in the ballpark for the majority of teams. Just like when anyone else makes these guesstimates, or, like, if an orang-u-tan did it.

 

Does anyone have any data that says that over time, or for this year in particular, BP is any closer with the guesstimates than anyone else (like any ESPN folk) who put out theirs?

Edited by Vance Law
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QUOTE(santo=dorf @ Sep 23, 2007 -> 06:40 PM)
It's their arrogance and unwillingness to accept the results. They come up with a model and make excuses when it doesn't work out. You should read the whiny article they put out after the Sox technically clinched in Detroit yet their system mathematically said the White Sox still only had a 90ish% chance of winning the division.

I never had much respect for BP but that was the last straw for me. It was so ridiculous to read something like that.

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