The environment thread

[NorthSideSox72]

And as demand increases, they'll raise the price of hybrids to where it no longer makes sense to go that route, keeping the oil companies well oiled, so to speak.

I'd disagree, for a few reasons. One, as with virtually all new technologies, the cost of production will decrease over time. Two, car companies are starving for money, and they will want to be competitive, which will mean hybrids, fuel cells, electric cars, etc. Three, the Japanese companies, who are leaders in this area, are already well on the way to the next gen hybrids, so they don't seem phazed by big oil. And the American companies will have no choice, if they want to survive, but to compete. Fourth and finally, if the car industry makes the prices too ridiculously high, you will embolden an already-existing cottage after-market industry for converting cars to hybrids. That ultimately takes money out of the pockets of the big car companies, and they won't have that.

 

I think that there are too many forces at work here against the car companies squashing these technologies. People want it too much. That wasn't true 10 years ago, but it sure is now.

 

[NorthSideSox72]

Yeah, I agree, the shortage of these vehicles is artificial and unnecessary - a way to spike demand and price them at a premium.

Yes, but, the shortage is all there really will be. They'll give the market enough cars to make lots of money, but not strangle it or artificially over-price it too much, for the reasons I specified in the other post.

 

[YASNY]

I'd disagree, for a few reasons. One, as with virtually all new technologies, the cost of production will decrease over time. Two, car companies are starving for money, and they will want to be competitive, which will mean hybrids, fuel cells, electric cars, etc. Three, the Japanese companies, who are leaders in this area, are already well on the way to the next gen hybrids, so they don't seem phazed by big oil. And the American companies will have no choice, if they want to survive, but to compete. Fourth and finally, if the car industry makes the prices too ridiculously high, you will embolden an already-existing cottage after-market industry for converting cars to hybrids. That ultimately takes money out of the pockets of the big car companies, and they won't have that.

 

I think that there are too many forces at work here against the car companies squashing these technologies. People want it too much. That wasn't true 10 years ago, but it sure is now.

 

I have to say that you make some very good points. Yet, history teaches me that no matter what is discovered that puts big oil at risk has not been allowed to flourish. We'll have to see, but I'm betting big oil wins out in the long run.

Edited November 8, 2007 by YASNY

[NorthSideSox72]

I have to say that you make some very good points. Yet, history teaches me that no matter what is discovered that puts big oil at risk has not been allowed to flourish. We'll have to see, but I'm betting big oil wins out in the long run.

I'm betting big oil holds on as hard as they can, but I'm also betting that the free market economies in this and other countries force the issue. And mind you, big oil is OK with that in the long run - they just become big energy instead of big oil. Oil is more profitable, but once its obvious that people are buying hybrids and putting solar panels on their homes, they'll see the writing on the wall - because at some point in that demand rise, it will actually become MORE profitable to provide alternatives.

 

[YASNY]

I'm betting big oil holds on as hard as they can, but I'm also betting that the free market economies in this and other countries force the issue. And mind you, big oil is OK with that in the long run - they just become big energy instead of big oil. Oil is more profitable, but once its obvious that people are buying hybrids and putting solar panels on their homes, they'll see the writing on the wall - because at some point in that demand rise, it will actually become MORE profitable to provide alternatives.

 

IF big oil is able to crossover to big energy, then maybe. But at $100 a barrel, big oil is going to continue the status quo as long as possible.

[NorthSideSox72]

IF big oil is able to crossover to big energy, then maybe. But at $100 a barrel, big oil is going to continue the status quo as long as possible.

Oh I agree, they'll have a death grip on it. And they should, from a business point of view. But that won't stop people like me from putting solar panels up and buying hybrids. And further, there are more of that version of "me" than there were, and that number goes up every time oil goes up. More money for companies that make those alternative technologies, not to mention bringing the cost of production down. Big oil will want to play in that space too.

 

[kapkomet]

IF big oil is able to crossover to big energy, then maybe. But at $100 a barrel, big oil is going to continue the status quo as long as possible.

It's interesting to note that as oil has gotten to $80, $90, and now near $100, "big oil" is starting to lose money on the actual costs of refining, etc. These prices are too high even for them.

[YASNY]

It's interesting to note that as oil has gotten to $80, $90, and now near $100, "big oil" is starting to lose money on the actual costs of refining, etc. These prices are too high even for them.

 

Big oil is not going to lose money producing energy. With our system of open roads and suburban homes, we need to drive. They'll either just raise fuel prices to cover the increased costs, or come up with something else they can overcharge us for.

[NorthSideSox72]

Big oil is not going to lose money producing energy. With our system of open roads and suburban homes, we need to drive. They'll either just raise fuel prices to cover the increased costs, or come up with something else they can overcharge us for.

They'll over charge us, no doubt. Just for other things, eventually.

 

I am hoping that another aspect to the alternative energy movement is that it results in diversification - that would help to foster more competition and better market conditions.

 

[YASNY]

They'll over charge us, no doubt. Just for other things, eventually.

 

I am hoping that another aspect to the alternative energy movement is that it results in diversification - that would help to foster more competition and better market conditions.

 

They aren't going to let anyone get a piece of their pie. You might as well forget it. Until they come up with another way to screw us out of our money, it will be oil. When they do come up with something, we'll pay the same piper for the dance.

[southsider2k5]

Yeah, I agree, the shortage of these vehicles is artificial and unnecessary - a way to spike demand and price them at a premium.

 

Seriously? You honestly believe that American car companies are in cahoots together to sell less cars? At a time when their profits are in the toilet, that makes no sense. It makes more sense that their outdates platforms, factories, and unions don't allow them the nimbleness to adjust on the fly like their counterparts. They need sales volume now, worse than anytime in their history, selling a few cars at a high margin isn't going to make up for the lost sales by their Japanese counterparts and their taking of a bigger chunk of the overall car market.

[FlaSoxxJim]

Seriously? You honestly believe that American car companies are in cahoots together to sell less cars? At a time when their profits are in the toilet, that makes no sense. It makes more sense that their outdates platforms, factories, and unions don't allow them the nimbleness to adjust on the fly like their counterparts. They need sales volume now, worse than anytime in their history, selling a few cars at a high margin isn't going to make up for the lost sales by their Japanese counterparts and their taking of a bigger chunk of the overall car market.

 

I see the inability to meet demand for hot hybrids as being a way to sell traditional inventory. I personally know three different people who have gone into dealerships in the last year intent on buying a hybrid vehicle, but ending up buying a traditional car because they couldn't wait the 9-12 months for the hybrid.

 

That said, I agree with you that there are scale-up issues that keep the companies from putting out an unlimited number of new technology vehicles.

[southsider2k5]

I see the inability to meet demand for hot hybrids as being a way to sell traditional inventory. I personally know three different people who have gone into dealerships in the last year intent on buying a hybrid vehicle, but ending up buying a traditional car because they couldn't wait the 9-12 months for the hybrid.

 

That said, I agree with you that there are scale-up issues that keep the companies from putting out an unlimited number of new technology vehicles.

 

For cars inventory is a year to year thing. They build new models every year. Changing the platforms is a whole nother story. Theoretially, if hybrids were doubling each year, they should be able to start with the next model year, but unfortunately they are so antiquated and outdated in their business model, they do not have the flexibility that other countries have. It is especially bad because they can charge more for hybrids, so they could make a way bigger profit off of those, than they can on traditional models, the waiting lists are just missed chances.

[Balta1701]

So, I think it's fairly obvious how bad some of the environmental situations have gotten when you start reading articles like this.

With no rain in sight, Gov. Sonny Perdue is looking for a little spiritual help to get North Georgia out of its drought.

 

Perdue's office has begun sending out invitations to a prayer service for rain at the Capitol next week.

 

The service is scheduled for Tuesday at 11:45 a.m. on the Washington Street side of the statehouse.

 

Heather Teilhet, his spokeswoman, said the governor began talking about wanting to host a service to pray for rain on his way back from Washington D.C. last week. He was in D.C. meeting with federal officials and the governors of Alabama and Florida to discuss the region's water crisis.

 

Perdue, whose son is a Baptist preacher, has had similar prayer services in the past.

 

"Georgia needs rain. The issue at the heart of our drought problems is a lack of rain," Teilhet said. "And there is nothing the government can do to make that happen.

 

"The governor recognizes that the request has got to be made to a higher power."

 

Teilhet said the governor's office has invited spiritual leaders from several faiths and dominations to participate in the service.

[NorthSideSox72]

For cars inventory is a year to year thing. They build new models every year. Changing the platforms is a whole nother story. Theoretially, if hybrids were doubling each year, they should be able to start with the next model year, but unfortunately they are so antiquated and outdated in their business model, they do not have the flexibility that other countries have. It is especially bad because they can charge more for hybrids, so they could make a way bigger profit off of those, than they can on traditional models, the waiting lists are just missed chances.

Yeah, the dealers hate it. They want more hybrids. For them, because of the demand, they can sell them all at sticker or even above (Talking to other buyers, I get the impression I was lucky to get sticker). And for those who get turned off by the wait, they often go find a hybrid elsewhere from another company. They don't all break down and get normal cars. So its a loss for the dealers too.

 

[NorthSideSox72]

So, I think it's fairly obvious how bad some of the environmental situations have gotten when you start reading articles like this.

While I agree that situations have gotten bad, I guess I don't see this drought as being a definite example. What's the connection? Overpopulation is an issues I suppose, brought on by humanity. But are you saying the drought is due to human environmental impact? I think that's a tough case to make specifically.

 

[Balta1701]

While I agree that situations have gotten bad, I guess I don't see this drought as being a definite example. What's the connection? Overpopulation is an issues I suppose, brought on by humanity. But are you saying the drought is due to human environmental impact? I think that's a tough case to make specifically.

Well, one could argue that it's at least possibly related to climate change, but I'm not going to be the one doing that, as I've said in the past you can never link a particular event to a changing climate.

 

What the drought in the SE does show is our way of treating the earth. THis drought has been building for a long, long, long time, and it's just been getting worse. But until right now, until the very very end, the states involved have taken essentially NO effort to plan for conservation. They literally will be running out of water in a couple months, but they just sort of assumed until the very end that everything would be fine, that there was no need to inconvenience people and ask them to conserve, that farmers could keep using the same amount they used beforehand, that there never needed to be a surplus.

 

There's some level of arrogance in assuming that the climate for a region will never change, and that humanity can use it for whatever it wants because there are always systems in place to take care of things. These states could have acted a long, long time ago and bought themselves many more months, if not years of water, but instead, they're literally at a point where their only options are prayer and rain dances.

[NorthSideSox72]

Well, one could argue that it's at least possibly related to climate change, but I'm not going to be the one doing that, as I've said in the past you can never link a particular event to a changing climate.

 

What the drought in the SE does show is our way of treating the earth. THis drought has been building for a long, long, long time, and it's just been getting worse. But until right now, until the very very end, the states involved have taken essentially NO effort to plan for conservation. They literally will be running out of water in a couple months, but they just sort of assumed until the very end that everything would be fine, that there was no need to inconvenience people and ask them to conserve, that farmers could keep using the same amount they used beforehand, that there never needed to be a surplus.

 

There's some level of arrogance in assuming that the climate for a region will never change, and that humanity can use it for whatever it wants because there are always systems in place to take care of things. These states could have acted a long, long time ago and bought themselves many more months, if not years of water, but instead, they're literally at a point where their only options are prayer and rain dances.

OK, I see what you are getting at. I don't think that's the environmental situation, I think that's human arrogance. People in this country are spoiled rotten, and they seem to think that their water, electricity, clean air, etc. are boundless resources. They are not, of course. Its tough to get people to take on a conservationist mindset, unless, sadly, we have situations like this come up more often. It appears that much of this country's population won't conserve unless they are scared to death by some event(s).

 

[NorthSideSox72]

No idea where to put this, so here we go.

 

The Yellowstone Caldera has been inflating at the fastest rate recorded since they began measuring in 1923 - about 3 inches a year - for the past 3 years. Some geologist from UU says no imminent threat is apparent. But the timing cycle, if it can be relied upon, does seem to indicate that we are coming up on a slot. This could be nothing of course. Hard to tell, it seems.

 

There is your mildly alarming thought for the day.

 

[BigSqwert]

California sues EPA to get tough CO2 rules on cars.

[Rex Kickass]

OK, I see what you are getting at. I don't think that's the environmental situation, I think that's human arrogance. People in this country are spoiled rotten, and they seem to think that their water, electricity, clean air, etc. are boundless resources. They are not, of course. Its tough to get people to take on a conservationist mindset, unless, sadly, we have situations like this come up more often. It appears that much of this country's population won't conserve unless they are scared to death by some event(s).

 

If Georgia had been aggressive in encouragement of gray water systems, we'd probably not have a big issue in Georgia right now.

[Balta1701]

No idea where to put this, so here we go.

 

The Yellowstone Caldera has been inflating at the fastest rate recorded since they began measuring in 1923 - about 3 inches a year - for the past 3 years. Some geologist from UU says no imminent threat is apparent. But the timing cycle, if it can be relied upon, does seem to indicate that we are coming up on a slot. This could be nothing of course. Hard to tell, it seems.

 

There is your mildly alarming thought for the day.

No one, and I mean no one, knows more about the Yellowstone volcano than the man they cited there. No one. Trust me.

 

In terms of Yellowstone, it's actually a system I know moderately well. Right now, that area is actually overdue for a small-scale, maybe even St. Helens size eruption. Usually those happen once every 10,000-100,000 years, and it's been well over 100,000 since the last small scale eruption. But, Yellowstone is also doing something unique right now; the hydrothermal activity there massively increased about 125,000 years ago, to a scale that it can't maintain without starting to cool the magma chamber below it.

 

In terms of a large scale eruption, the caldera simply doesn't yet seem primed for one of those. There would likely need to be a lot of motion beforehand...because you need enough motion to actually crack kilometers of crust to break through. But we are really overdue for a smaller scale eruption, even just a small flow.

Edited November 8, 2007 by Balta1701

[NorthSideSox72]

No one, and I mean no one, knows more about the Yellowstone volcano than the man they cited there. No one. Trust me.

Oh I trust you. Just thought it was worth pointing out. I thought it was interesting he said there was no "imminent" threat.

 

 

[NorthSideSox72]

So, here is something interesting that the US should look at as a goal. Someone (Rex maybe?) mentioned a few days ago that Brazil had, thanks to sugar-based ethanol and other alternative fuel efforts, become basically energy independent. Well now, they stumbled onto a huge new oil field, with something like 8 billion bbl of usable light crude just offshore. So now, they have suddenly been vaulted into the top tier of oil exporters worldwide.

 

If Brazil hadn't bothered with the alternative fuels, this find would have, perhaps, made them self-sufficient. Instead, its now huge money in their pockets, because the rest of the world still needs oil. The US still has pretty large oil reserves too. Something to think about.

 

[FlaSoxxJim]

Old news by now, and not surprising, but Yea Congress for overriding the presidential veto of the Water Resources Development Act! :headbang