The environment thread

[iamshack]

They've been having to deal with these tax subsidy cycles for a long time now, and it really does stifle development.

The numbers just don't work without the tax credits...I interviewed with a major wind company last year and their director of development admitted that they don't know if they could be profitable without the credits...

 

Hopefully the price of natural gas will increase in the next year or so.

 

One interesting thing to come out of this cheap gas atmosphere is that it has probably sped up the demise of coal a bit.

[Balta1701]

The numbers just don't work without the tax credits...I interviewed with a major wind company last year and their director of development admitted that they don't know if they could be profitable without the credits...

 

Hopefully the price of natural gas will increase in the next year or so.

 

One interesting thing to come out of this cheap gas atmosphere is that it has probably sped up the demise of coal a bit.

A small increase in the price of gas is possible depending on weather, but a significant, long term increase is unlikely. That would require the current drilling boom to slow down, and they're racing to drill/frack as much territory as possible now because they can get it done now before the regulations catch up to the technique/pollution levels, and let the well sit there capped off until the price goes up slightly.

[iamshack]

A small increase in the price of gas is possible depending on weather, but a significant, long term increase is unlikely. That would require the current drilling boom to slow down, and they're racing to drill/frack as much territory as possible now because they can get it done now before the regulations catch up to the technique/pollution levels, and let the well sit there capped off until the price goes up slightly.

Balta,

I've read that the fracking sites tend to have a boom in production in the first year or so, but then it tails off dramatically....is that how you understand it?

[Balta1701]

Balta,

I've read that the fracking sites tend to have a boom in production in the first year or so, but then it tails off dramatically....is that how you understand it?

Absolutely true, and how much it tails off actually has a pretty big impact on how financially productive every drilled well is. A couple years ago they really didn't know if "Fracking" in the Marcellus shale would be profitable at all, because the decrease could have simply made it unprofitable. I'm not privy to industry data, but the fact that money has continued to pour in (despite the decrease in gas prices) and people have continued to drill tells me that the depletion curves aren't at the extremely bad end.

 

They're probably also getting better at the technique the more they do it, which would allow for better long-term recovery rates.

[iamshack]

Absolutely true, and how much it tails off actually has a pretty big impact on how financially productive every drilled well is. A couple years ago they really didn't know if "Fracking" in the Marcellus shale would be profitable at all, because the decrease could have simply made it unprofitable. I'm not privy to industry data, but the fact that money has continued to pour in and people have continued to drill tells me that the depletion curves aren't at the extremely bad end.

 

They're probably also getting better at the technique the more they do it, which would allow for better long-term recovery rates.

I've read that there could be a jump in price for next year when a lot of these sites reach their 2nd and 3rd years of production and the supply decreases...but I have no idea as to whether the development of new sites has slowed or not...my guess is you are right about the rush to beat the regulations, however...

[Balta1701]

I've read that there could be a jump in price for next year when a lot of these sites reach their 2nd and 3rd years of production and the supply decreases...but I have no idea as to whether the development of new sites has slowed or not...my guess is you are right about the rush to beat the regulations, however...

There have been some press stories of "slowing gas production because of the price drop", but when you look at things like "supplies of material required for use in fracking" (i.e. sand), it is showing exponential boom levels, and North Dakota oil production just can't account for that.

 

There really is no good reason why they can't start development of one of these wells, break up the rocks, seal the pipe off, maintain it, and then re-access it in a couple years, so getting it developed now, especially while labor and funds are cheap due to the economic crisis, in addition to beating regulation, it's a great reason to get everything drilled as fast as you can.

 

Edit: The one problem for companies like Cheasapeake is that if they're spending the money now to get these sites developed, they need to be able to finance that spending long-term, because the gains will only happen over the long-term.

[StrangeSox]

Tangentially related, but we're facing a looming helium shortage. This affects many more industries than just Party City.

[Balta1701]

US Commerce Dept. hits China with large tariffs on solar panels in response to dumping of below-price solar panels.

[mr_genius]

US Commerce Dept. hits China with large tariffs on solar panels in response to dumping of below-price solar panels.

 

but aren't super cheap solar panels good for the environment? Obama is destroying the earth.

[StrangeSox]

Decimating the world's sea life:

 

 

I really wonder how much longer commercial fishing is going to be viable. The spawning stocks of many species are decimated and can't recover as long as we keep fishing.

 

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-k...cIBbU_blog.html

 

[StrangeSox]

NRC Chairman Jackzo Resigns

[StrangeSox]

coal lobby was running craigslist ads to get people to wear pro-coal shirts for $50

 

http://www.republicreport.org/2012/pay-people-shirts/

[Balta1701]

coal lobby was running craigslist ads to get people to wear pro-coal shirts for $50

 

http://www.republicreport.org/2012/pay-people-shirts/

Why didnt I know about this!?

[iamshack]

It's really tough for them right now since with the cost of natural gas coal is no longer a baseload energy source.

 

Now they're panicking as private equity is coming in to switch coal plants over to natural gas plants.

 

 

[Balta1701]

Genetically modified grass in Texas starts producing cyanide, maybe some unexpected mutation, starts killing cattle.

[StrangeSox]

The first six months of this year were the hottest on record in the US:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/07/09/...E86811Q20120709

 

The last 12 months have also been the hottest on record since 1895, beating out the previous 12 months for hottest-ever.

 

In related news, 50% of the corn in Illinois is in "poor or very poor" condition. Indiana is doing no better, and many other states are hurting as well.

Edited July 10, 2012 by StrangeSox

[Balta1701]

This is pretty clearly the future of the midwest, as more canadian heavy oil gets shipped to refineries on the Gulf coast for export over the next few decades.

The National Transportation Safety Board blamed multiple corrosion cracks and “pervasive organizational failures” at the Calgary-based Enbridge pipeline company for a more-than-20,000-barrel oil spill two years ago near Michigan’s Kalamazoo River.

 

The cost of the spill has reached $800 million and is rising, the NTSB said, making the pipeline rupture the most expensive on-shore oil spill in U.S. history. The pipeline’s contents — heavy crude oil from Canada’s oil sands — have made the spill a closely watched case with implications for other pipelines carrying such crude.

 

The NTSB also blamed “weak federal regulations” by the Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration for the accident, which spilled at least 843,444 gallons of oil into a tributary of the Kalamazoo in Marshall, Mich. The oil spread into a 40-mile stretch of the Kalamazoo and a nearby wetlands area.

 

The NTSB said Enbridge had noticed cracks as early as 2005 but had failed to repair them.

 

“This accident is a wake-up call to the industry, the regulator, and the public,” NTSB Chairman Deborah A.P. Hersman said in a statement. “Enbridge knew for years that this section of the pipeline was vulnerable yet they didn’t act on that information.” She added that “for the regulator to delegate too much authority to the regulated to assess their own system risks and correct them is tantamount to the fox guarding the hen house.”

 

The spill began about 5:58 p.m. on July 25, 2010, when a 30-inch diameter pipeline ruptured. Twice, Enbridge workers tried to restart the pipeline after alarms about abnormal pressure in the line and 81 percent of the oil spilled over 17 hours after those alarms, the NTSB said.

[StrangeSox]

Build Keystone NOW!

[Balta1701]

Build Keystone NOW!

Call me defeatist, but it's going to happen. We may as well take note of how complete the failure is to regulate the pipeline industry and try to get that improved before the first major spill happens in a couple years. At least that would be a Pyrrhic victory.

[StrangeSox]

deregulation is just as inevitable.

[Balta1701]

The US Department of agriculture has issued the largest declaration of a state of emergency in US History as a result of severe drought conditions. Covers 26 states, more than 1000 counties, about 1/3 the area of the U.S.

 

About 1/2 of the U.S. is currently in a state of moderate to severe drought.

 

The scary good news is, it seems like an El Nino is going to build next fall, which will shift rainfall patterns over the US and might break some of that drought...but El Nino years are always messy weather otherwise, especially if they're severe.

[StrangeSox]

but global warming would cost too much and be too economically disruptive to address!

 

"I told you so" is little comfort

Edited July 12, 2012 by StrangeSox

[BigSqwert]

LOL at the trolling going on in Shell's "Let's Go" ad contest.

 

link

[Y2HH]

but global warming would cost too much and be too economically disruptive to address!

 

"I told you so" is little comfort

 

Are you claiming we haven't started addressed it, even a little?

 

There are numerous things we've done that conserve energy, burn it cleaner, and cause far less pollution over the last decade. Everything from more efficient furnaces, to air conditioners, homes, to more fuel efficient cars, be it hybrid or even full on electric.

 

Unfortunately, it will take a long time for such small changes add up to any sort of noticeable effect...especially with other countries doing nothing, or pretending to do something, but not actually caring. It's hard for me to believe a country like China gives a damn about pollution when they don't even care about the basic welfare of their workers, who assemble iPad's and other computers in sweat shops for a wage they can't even live on without working 90+ hour weeks.

 

If it took upwards of 70-80 years to "cause" this...let's not pretend it will only take 5 or 10 to undo it all.

[StrangeSox]

We haven't really started to address it, no. It's hard when something like 50% of the country denies that the problem even exists. We're still putting out increasing amounts of CO2 over the last several decades. If we were really addressing the problem, doing what we need to do, we'd be drastically cutting emissions, not talking about Keystone.

 

This report contains the most recent estimates I've seen. There's a slight dip in the last few years due to the economy crashing, but we aren't doing anything to really reduce emissions.