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BigSqwert

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http://finance.yahoo.com/news/opec-surviva...-152029951.html

 

OPEC Survival Uncertain Amid U.S. Oil Output Growth

 

 

A record surge in U.S. oil production that has moved the country closer to energy independence threatens the existence of OPEC, according to analysts at Citigroup Inc.

"OPEC should find it challenging to survive another 60 years, let alone another decade," analysts led by Ed Morse, global head of commodities research at Citigroup in New York, said in a report released today. "The United States should see its role in the world as a singular superpower enhanced and prolonged."

 

U.S. oil production expanded by a record 790,000 barrels a day last year, according to the Energy Information Administration, the statistical arm of the Energy Department. A shift toward natural gas as a transportation fuel may further undermine the power of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, Morse said in the report titled "Energy 2020: Independence Day."

 

Increased output from Canada and Mexico will accelerate a trend toward North American energy independence, according to the report.

By the middle of 2013, the U.S. Gulf Coast will no longer import light, sweet crude, replacing it with supplies from states such as North Dakota, Oklahoma and Texas. By the end of next year, sour Canadian oil will displace imports from Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Kuwait, according to the report.

 

The U.S. met 84 percent of its own energy needs in the first 10 months of last year, on pace to be the highest annual rate of self-sufficiency since 1991, according to data from the EIA.

 

OPEC production fell to the lowest level in a year in January, the Paris-based International Energy Agency said today in its monthly report. The 12-member group pumped 30.34 million barrels a day in January, down 100,000 barrels from December.

 

I didn't realize that number was so high. I figured like 40% or maybe 50% at most. Good news.

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QUOTE (Jenksismyb**** @ Feb 13, 2013 -> 01:16 PM)
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/opec-surviva...-152029951.html

 

 

 

I didn't realize that number was so high. I figured like 40% or maybe 50% at most. Good news.

It is 45%...when you talk specifically about oil.

 

The trick there is that the U.S. has always had ample supplies of coal and gas to meet its electricity needs. Over the past decade we've seen a shift from coal to gas as new gas extraction techniques have come online...but really, that hasn't changed the mix. The U.S. wasn't importing much coal or gas in either case.

 

What really has changed is this...we're driving less:

chart.jpg

We're driving more fuel efficient vehicles:

fuel-economy-over-time-600x368.png

 

And we've started producing slightly more oil, particularly thanks to North Dakota being ripped apart (see: the small blue uptick on this plot, and it's important to use this version to show how small the uptick really has been).

EIA-US-oil-production-1859-2035.png

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QUOTE (StrangeSox @ Feb 14, 2013 -> 09:51 AM)
Tesla pushes back strongly against a recent NYT review of the Model S where the car supposedly ran out of charge much earlier than dashboard instruments said it would.

 

http://www.teslamotors.com/blog/most-peculiar-test-drive

That's a pretty awesome car.

 

I guess we have a special electric vehicle charging rate between 10 pm and 6 am.

 

I want.

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  • 2 weeks later...
QUOTE (iamshack @ Feb 14, 2013 -> 11:54 AM)
That's a pretty awesome car.

 

I guess we have a special electric vehicle charging rate between 10 pm and 6 am.

 

I want.

My company has 5 charging stations in our parking lot that are free to use (until they figure out a way to efficiently charge the users $), if only I had $90k laying around...

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  • 2 weeks later...
QUOTE (StrangeSox @ Mar 1, 2013 -> 04:16 PM)

The oil is coming out of the ground anyway, why would you rather the work and benefits go to some other (China) country? If it is the pipeline itself that has you worries, then maybe streamline regulations and make a refinery a bit closer....

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QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Mar 14, 2013 -> 08:00 AM)
For you Midwesterners, that pipeline will actually increase prices you pay for gasoline. You're getting a discount right now because that pipeline doesn't exist.

 

I don't know anything about the pipeline, can you explain for me how this is the case?

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QUOTE (Jenksismyb**** @ Mar 14, 2013 -> 09:13 AM)
I don't know anything about the pipeline, can you explain for me how this is the case?

This pipeline will carry unrefined crude product (I'm not sure there's a good term for what it will carry. Sludge? Tar? Extremely unrefined product extracted from bitumen/asphalt?) from Canada to refineries on the Gulf Coast.

 

This product is being produced in Canada in large strip mines. The metaphor I'm about to use in another place I'm writing is that it's like taking a freshly blacktopped road, grinding it up, extracting products from it that can be refined eventually into gasoline.

 

Right now, Canada is mining and producing more of this stuff than they can use. They have pipelines that can ship that product to the midwestern U.S., but because this resource only is profitable when the oil price is >$100, it hasn't been profitable to produce it until recently. Thus, there's no infrastructure developed based on it; it's only using preexisting pipeline infrastructure. Pipelines exist that can carry this product to the Midwest U.S., but no further. The oil is produced in Canada, can reach the Midwest, but can go no further. When they increase production in Canada, it increases supplies in the Midwest, and forces prices in the Midwest US down.

 

The real demand growth for gasoline is, however, not in the Midwest, it is in Asia. That's what this pipeline will allow to happen. Partially refined heavy product will be shipped down this pipeline, away from the refineries in the midwest to refineries on the gulf coast. At that point, it will be refined into gasoline in those refineries (they're adapted to handle heavier crudes thanks to the stuff coming from the Gulf of Mexico), and then shipped overseas.

 

Thus, this pipeline will actually cut gas supplies in the midwest, leading to greater prices in that region. It's an export pipeline, it's going to make prices more balanced by removing a supply glut in the US.

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No frackin' way!

 

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/power-shift-...-164550693.html

 

Technological innovation -- primarily the growth of horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing, or "fracking" as it's commonly known -- is driving the new production, enabling oil and gas to be extracted from geological formations once considered impregnable.

 

"The ability to drill these long reach horizontal wells into reservoirs we could never reach before was a big change for the industry," said Foutch, head of Oklahoma-based Laredo Petroleum.

 

As a result, U.S. oil and gas production is growing so rapidly -- and demand dropping so quickly -- that in just five years the U.S. may no longer need to import oil from any source but Canada, according to Citigroup. And the International Energy Agency projects the U.S. could leapfrog Saudi Arabia and Russia to become the world's biggest oil producer by 2020. IEA sees the U.S. becoming a net oil exporter by 2030.

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  • 1 month later...

The environment is a part of the culture wars:

 

But slap a message on the CFL’s packaging that says “Protect the Environment,” and “we saw a significant drop-off in more politically moderates and conservatives choosing that option,” said study author Dena Gromet, a researcher at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School of Business.

 

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