The environment thread

[Balta1701]

And the quoted statement isn't true here

Really?

 

It set the record for precipitation in the month of may in a day and a half.

[NorthSideSox72]

Really?

 

It set the record for precipitation in the month of may in a day and a half.

Its an outlier - its not totally outside the realm of possibility. These things happen, they have happened in other places too. its definitely an unusual event, and it MAY have been more likely to occur because of climate changes. But you simply cannot reasonably say that this single event happened BECAUSE of climate change, nor can you say it wasn't a 500 year event happening in the 500th year.

 

Look, I'm pretty much with you on climate change - its happening without a doubt, we're warming without a doubt, and humans are having some effect on it at least. I'm just pointing out that using any single weather event as proof of it, or proof against it, is not logically sound.

 

[Balta1701]

That wasn't just a 500 year event.

[NorthSideSox72]

That wasn't just a 500 year event.

OK... explain to me how that particular event - not the tendency for more things to occur more frequently, but this INSTANCE - was directly caused by global warming, and nothing else.

 

Anyone else feel free to do the same for the DC snows, and how it was evidence that global warming DOESN'T exist.

 

[Balta1701]

OK... explain to me how that particular event - not the tendency for more things to occur more frequently, but this INSTANCE - was directly caused by global warming, and nothing else.

 

Anyone else feel free to do the same for the DC snows, and how it was evidence that global warming DOESN'T exist.

Because the thing that made it possible was the record warm temperatures combined with high humidity. Cut the temperature even slightly, less water in the air, this storm becomes vastly weaker.

[NorthSideSox72]

Because the thing that made it possible was the record warm temperatures combined with high humidity. Cut the temperature even slightly, less water in the air, this storm becomes vastly weaker.

So as I said, you cannot scientifically connect the event to it. You can say it was caused by record heat and humidity, which happen often in different places.

 

I'm just tired of anyone - pro of con - trying to prove or disprove global warming on the basis of one weather event, or a few weather events, or a season or even a year. Its prepostorous, and it doesn't add anything to the dialogue.

 

Now if you want to say, over a period of years, that these sorts of events may be more likely to occur... then I'd agree.

 

[Balta1701]

Now if you want to say, over a period of years, that these sorts of events may be more likely to occur... then I'd agree.

Well, I'd argue this was an example of something that went from impossible to possible, but I'll leave it at that. I agree 95% with what you're saying.

[FlaSoxxJim]

OK... explain to me how that particular event - not the tendency for more things to occur more frequently, but this INSTANCE - was directly caused by global warming, and nothing else.

 

Anyone else feel free to do the same for the DC snows, and how it was evidence that global warming DOESN'T exist.

 

From a statistical standpoint you are on sound footing and this is logical statement is right out of the ol' Big Tobacco Legal Playbook. "You can't prove your client in this one isolated case got lung cancer/emphysema. etc., just because he smoked three packs of my client's cigarettes for 40 years." And statistically speaking, this legal c*cksucker would be right. Fast forward 100,000 cases later and of course the "isolate and dismiss" case-by-case strategy sort of fell apart for Big Tobacco. All of us here know that it's the same case here, even though we can't tie any single extreme weather event to anthropogenic climate change.

 

Of course this is not dismissing Balta's important point about current atmospheric conditions that are the result of a perturbated climate factor directly into the magnitude of this rainfall event.

 

 

[lostfan]

Doesn't warmer air hold more moisture?

[kapkomet]

You're half right, but I still disagree on the other half...this is exactly the type of event that you would call a symptom of a changing climate. It was spurred by record temperatures unreachable a few years ago at this point in the season. It broke every record. It's going to look like a small event in another decade or so at business-as-usual.

 

The odds of this event happening 50 years ago were so that it's hardly worth calculating. Now, this really wasn't that extreme of an event, considering how many other temperature records we've broken this year.

 

OOOOOOOOOHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH MMMMMMMMMMMMYYYYYYYYYYY GOD, WE'RE ALLLLLLLLLLLL GONNNNNAAAAA DIEEEEEEEEEEEEEE.

[dasox24]

You know what's sad? That no one in the national media is paying much attention to this Middle Tennessee/Nashville flooding. Billions of dollars of damage have occurred to the city of Nashville and tens of thousands are homeless.

 

But no, let's not act like this is a big deal.

 

 

[kapkomet]

You know what's sad? That no one in the national media is paying much attention to this Middle Tennessee/Nashville flooding. Billions of dollars of damage have occurred to the city of Nashville and tens of thousands are homeless.

 

But no, let's not act like this is a big deal.

 

I'm a racist mofo, obviously, so here goes. This ain't New Orleans.

 

Thanks and have a nice day.

 

::::

 

Seriously, I agree. It's crazy to see all that water in a lot of places I've been.

[southsider2k5]

You know what's sad? That no one in the national media is paying much attention to this Middle Tennessee/Nashville flooding. Billions of dollars of damage have occurred to the city of Nashville and tens of thousands are homeless.

 

But no, let's not act like this is a big deal.

 

It was the lead story all day while I was on the air.

[iamshack]

OOOOOOOOOHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH MMMMMMMMMMMMYYYYYYYYYYY GOD, WE'RE ALLLLLLLLLLLL GONNNNNAAAAA DIEEEEEEEEEEEEEE.

So would the world have to end in like a 3-day span from climate change in order for you to pay any credence to it?

[StrangeSox]

Rick Perry blames God for massive oil leak:

 

“We don’t know what the event that has allowed for this massive oil to be released,” Perry said, according to Politico. “And until we know that, I hope we don’t see a knee-jerk reaction across this country that says we’re going to shut down drilling in the Gulf of Mexico, because the cost to this country will be staggering."

 

He suggested the disaster might be "just an act of God that occurred."

[FlaSoxxJim]

Rick Perry blames God for massive oil leak:

 

The pro-drilling folks are scrambing for sure. For them the worst thing that could happen is America could actually pay attention to what is going on and finally give a damn.

 

[NorthSideSox72]

You know what's sad? That no one in the national media is paying much attention to this Middle Tennessee/Nashville flooding. Billions of dollars of damage have occurred to the city of Nashville and tens of thousands are homeless.

 

But no, let's not act like this is a big deal.

That and the NY bombing attempt are all that's on the news. Not sure what makes you think no one is paying attention.

 

[NorthSideSox72]

Well, I'd argue this was an example of something that went from impossible to possible, but I'll leave it at that. I agree 95% with what you're saying.

That's fine, as you said, we'er basically on the same page on the topic generally.

 

[StrangeSox]

The pro-drilling folks are scrambing for sure. For them the worst thing that could happen is America could actually pay attention to what is going on and finally give a damn.

 

This must somehow be the fault of Democrats/ regulation.

 

edit: Or we can go with the crazy conspiracy theories on Fox or with Limbaugh.

Edited May 5, 2010 by StrangeSox

[Balta1701]

The pro-drilling folks are scrambing for sure. For them the worst thing that could happen is America could actually pay attention to what is going on and finally give a damn.

Sadly...there's reason to think this is a great boon for the current dirty energy industries. Suddenly, people who might have said "ok, fine, you can drill if you give me a legitimate comprehensive bill" are questioning whether that's a compromise they'd be willing to make.

The oil slick spreading through the Gulf of Mexico will prompt Congress to examine new regulatory, safety and technological requirements that could ultimately slow further off-shore oil drilling, the White House's top energy official said Tuesday.

 

But lawmakers said the catastrophic spill could further dim the White House's hopes for securing legislation aimed at reducing U.S. consumption of oil and other fossil fuels, by making it impossible to forge a compromise that includes expanded undersea drilling.

[Balta1701]

Rick Perry blames God for massive oil leak:

Of course...Governor Perry doesn't consider that this might be God saying "stop drilling!"

[bmags]

Cool graph:

http://bit.ly/diTWYV

 

Illinois and New York with two lowest gas consumption levels per capita - benefitting from huge swaths of their population in a high density area with effective public transit (in that it serves huge areas: see Louis, St. for opposite)

 

Anyway, proud to walk to my first job today then take the train to my second. Go Illinois.

[Y2HH]

LOL.

 

I despise public transportation.

 

I drive to work every day.

[BigSqwert]

LOL.

 

I despise public transportation.

 

I drive to work every day.

That's hilarious.

[Y2HH]

That's hilarious.

 

It wasn't meant to be funny. What it is, is wonderful. Freedom is great, isn't it? I'm free to choose to drive to work, because I can, because I dislike public transportation.

 

Oh, wait, you only like freedom when people agree with what you agree with, right?