Pioneer League Top 20

[29andPoplar]

Poreda, Gallagher, Ely, Estill, Sanchez, Marrero.

[29andPoplar]

Hah, each of the scouting reports on the 6 Great Falls guys had a negative vibe, which is fair enough I suppose.

 

Poreda: lacks a secondary pitch that even grades out to average. Worked hard on improving the slider but they criticized his mechanics.

 

Ely: very competitive but has a head jerk in his deceptive delivery and there's concern he can stay healthy. Hmmm, sounds like the BA writer read the draft scouting report.

 

Estill: speed and power, can play CF but has huge holes in his swing.

 

Gallagher: fringy average tools (again it looks like they regurgitated the draft scouting report), doesn't have the arm or range to play RF or CF. Controls the strike zone well. Interesting, Cron had Gallagher playing all three OF positions.

 

Marrero: repeated the level, moved from OF to 1B where he looks comfortable. Hitting coach smoothed out his swing and he responded.

 

Sanchez: repeated the level, needs better instincts on the bases, mentioned he got caught stealing 13 times, takes bad routes to the ball in RF. Poor plate discipline. Trying to translate his raw skills into baseball talent.

 

Seemed the writer focused on the negative. Is that your brother fathom???

 

 

[NorthSideSox72]

Wow, six?! I said 4 or maybe 5 and most others thought less.

 

Do you have a link to the list? I'd like to see the whole list.

 

[ChiSox_Sonix]

Wow, six?! I said 4 or maybe 5 and most others thought less.

 

Do you have a link to the list? I'd like to see the whole list.

 

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prosp...res/264919.html

[maggsmaggs]

And no Moreno...I just cannot see how you can leave him off that list. 11 walks in 90 innings, come on, not even top 20, please.

[RockRaines]

Well. I guess Poreda just dominated without a second pitch....

[Gregory Pratt]

Well. I guess Poreda just dominated without a second pitch....

 

Others have been over it before.

 

Most of the people in his league have never seen a fastball that fast. If you think it's testament to how good Poreda is that he did what first round draft picks are supposed to do, then by all means, he's hardcore. Pencil him in to the rotation shortly!

[Gene Honda Civic]

First, I would like to say that I was wrong about how many the Sox would have on the list.

 

Second, I don't think having six on this list should make us feel any better. Read those scouting reports. Ugh. I think this shows the relative weakness of the league, which was lacking in prospects (aside from the top 5 and a Moustakas visit)

 

on Moreno, who I said would be down the list and labeled a command and control guy. You just aren't much of a prospect if you can't strike out guys in rookie ball. (Moreno was a little below league average in this category) In my mind he's still worth watching, as is Cheatham (who missed the list yesterday)..

Edited September 25, 2007 by Gene Honda Civic

[RockRaines]

Others have been over it before.

 

Most of the people in his league have never seen a fastball that fast. If you think it's testament to how good Poreda is that he did what first round draft picks are supposed to do, then by all means, he's hardcore. Pencil him in to the rotation shortly!

Do you have to post everything in a smart-ass tone. The guy was called the most dominant pick of the draft. He obviously performed well. Why do you have to take everything to the extreme?

[ChiSox_Sonix]

Looks like the chat wrap is members only, that sucks. Strange cuz the Appy league was viewable by anyone.

[29andPoplar]

First, I would like to say that I was wrong about how many the Sox would have on the list.

 

Second, I don't think having six on this list should make us feel any better. Read those scouting reports. Ugh. I think this shows the relative weakness of the league, which was lacking in prospects (aside from the top 5 and a Moustakas visit)

 

on Moreno, who I said would be down the list and labeled a command and control guy. You just aren't much of a prospect if you can't strike out guys in rookie ball. (Moreno was a little below league average in this category) In my mind he's still worth watching, as is Cheatham (who missed the list yesterday)..

 

I agree that even the most optimistic of fans shouldn't overreact to having 6 guys on a list like this. Yes it's probably better than having no guys on the list but it's still a rookie ball level. That said, and this is just my opinion, some of those scouting reports were regurgitated from draft time and didn't take into account the growth of these guys this summer. Not that a whole bunch of progress is made in one summer but as an example, I listened to several of Ely's starts. Opposing announcers were raving about how he moved in and out and up and down. Oh well. And I will admit I'm probably biased because I enjoyed that team so much this summer and obviously I want the Sox prospects to do well.

 

Regarding Moreno. Yes he is def. a guy to watch. 90 innings pitched in the Pioneer League, only 4 HR's given up and only 11 walks. That's quite good. His biggest attribute appears to be pounding the strike zone and knowing how to pitch.

 

[29andPoplar]

It took only a few minutes for someone to ask about Juan Moreno in the BA chat.

 

"Where was Juan Moreno, he is still pretty young, won pitcher of the year in the Pioneer League and showed tremendous control while striking out a good number of batters?"

 

A: Ben Badler: Josh, Moreno has an advanced feel for pitching, mixing his speeds and fooling opposing hitters. He's limited though because his fastball is 88-92 and his breaking ball is pretty slurvy. He'll spot his pitches, but more experienced hitters will probably give him trouble. He and Chacin both are advanced for their age, but the difference is that Chacin's secondary stuff is much better than Moreno's.

 

 

[29andPoplar]

Here was the question asked about Lyndon Estill, the Great Falls CF the White Sox took in this years draft.

 

"With Estill's sizepowerathleticism combo why didn't he rate higher than guys that were repeating the league? 7 jacks in your 1st 130 ABs with wood is pretty good."

 

A: Ben Badler: Scott, I like Estill, which is why he made the list in the first place. I'll take repeating the league into consideration, but I'm mostly concerned with ranking prospects based on their future major league potential and their likelihood of reaching that potential. Estill has big-time physical tools, and he has already shown the ability to hit for power, as you mentioned, which is a good sign for his development. Another good sign for him is that he walked in 10 percent of his plate appearances. A combination of patience, power and athleticism sounds pretty good to me. The problem is his strikeout rate—40 percent. Power hitters typically have high strikeout rates, which is fine, but 40 percent is too high. He has a lot of holes in his swing that scouts and managers think he will need to fix, but given how much time he spent focusing on football in high school, he may develop a little later than most now that he is focusing full-time on baseball. If he can cut down on the Ks, he could have a breakout year.

 

EDIT: he mentioned that Great Falls LH reliever Wandar Perez just missed the cut, and wondered why there weren't any questions about him, seeing as Perez struck out 65 in 43 innings (something like that). So I asked a question about him, let's see if it gets answered.

Edited September 25, 2007 by 29andPoplar

[Chisoxfn]

Do you have to post everything in a smart-ass tone. The guy was called the most dominant pick of the draft. He obviously performed well. Why do you have to take everything to the extreme?

That comment about a fastball that hard is ludicrious. People throw that hard at the collegiate level and most of the guys in Pioneer league tend to be college players are more veteran minor leaguers. I'm not saying every team has numerous guys that throw so hard, but bottom line, Poreda isn't the first guy they've ever faced with a 95MPH+ fastball.

 

He obviously showed good command for a power pitcher and made some strides with his secondary pitches since no matter how good you are, if all you can throw is a fastball (especially if you are a starter) than you aren't going to succeed (whether its Low A, AA, or the Majors).

 

And Rock, don't ask me why Pratt is always so extreme. The whole point of talking prospects is you basically discuss a players upside as well as the potential for them to reach that upside (some players have superb upside but the odds of them making it are very very slim due to mechanical flaws...see Collaro/Borchard/Brian Anderson or on the pitching end Andrew Sisco). While other guys may not have as great of upside but a greater chance of having sustained major league success or serviceable careers (think Aaron Rowand; Aaron Miles; Charles Haeger; Jerry Owens; Lance Broadway). Than of course you have the high upside guys that laso look to have a great chance of major league success (this is a rare breed....Mark Prior/Stephen Drew/Mark Texiera/Matt Wieters (best catching prospect since Mauer and as sure of a thing as there is in terms of catching prospects, imo); Pedro Alvarez (typically highly touted, for the most part collegiate players that are high high draft picks).

 

Weaknesses typically factor in on what the player needs to correct to reach his upside (and these can be mechanical weaknesses which could potentially be corrected or physical weaknesses which usually can't be).

[Chisoxfn]

I agree that even the most optimistic of fans shouldn't overreact to having 6 guys on a list like this. Yes it's probably better than having no guys on the list but it's still a rookie ball level. That said, and this is just my opinion, some of those scouting reports were regurgitated from draft time and didn't take into account the growth of these guys this summer. Not that a whole bunch of progress is made in one summer but as an example, I listened to several of Ely's starts. Opposing announcers were raving about how he moved in and out and up and down. Oh well. And I will admit I'm probably biased because I enjoyed that team so much this summer and obviously I want the Sox prospects to do well.

 

Regarding Moreno. Yes he is def. a guy to watch. 90 innings pitched in the Pioneer League, only 4 HR's given up and only 11 walks. That's quite good. His biggest attribute appears to be pounding the strike zone and knowing how to pitch.

Ely is the type of guy I want to really keep an eye on as he moves up. He's the type of guy that doesn't have extreme upside, yet if he can continue to pitch succesfully it would indicate he has enough stuff to go along with his intangibles (have the command and smarts to work the zone). I recall hearing he has pretty good movement on his pitches too which is a major positive.

 

Same can be sade for Moreno. Stuff guys can struggle at the lower levels, especially if they are still raw, where as a much more mature control/command pitcher can dominate the lower levels and than blow up at the higher levels (if his stuff just isn't very good) or it could continue on (indicating he has major league stuff, just no plus pitches and there are plenty of good major league pitchers that lack any true "plus pitch as "command" could be considered there plus attribute).

[Flash Tizzle]

Hah, each of the scouting reports on the 6 Great Falls guys had a negative vibe, which is fair enough I suppose.

 

Poreda: lacks a secondary pitch that even grades out to average. Worked hard on improving the slider but they criticized his mechanics.

 

Seemed the writer focused on the negative. Is that your brother fathom???

This is extremely disappointing. We didn't draft Poreda with the intention of developing him into the next Matt Thornton. If he doesn't develop several average secondary pitches by next season, whether in Kannapolis or Winston Salem, then the criticism should be in full force.

 

Also, SSI71 sent me this link:

 

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20...rtnered=rss_cws

 

Merkin addressed several issues discussed on this website concerning the upcoming draft. I find it funny how he mentions, in the last paragraph, about hopefully winning every game this point forward. Almost as if he's indirectly commenting on those of us who believe losing here on out is more beneficial to our future.

Edited September 25, 2007 by Flash Tizzle

[29andPoplar]

Ok, the BA chat guy answered my question on LH reliever Wander Perez, here it is.

 

Steve R. from Chicago asks:

Ok Ben, I'll ask the Wander Perez question. What's his story? I know he was a product of the White Sox Dominican operation and that he's got a slight build.

 

A: Ben Badler: Thanks, Steve. Wander is 22 years old, so he's old for the league, but his numbers stood out to me because he struck out 69 batters in 43 innings (31 percent of opposing batters). You would think he'd have power stuff with that strikeout rate, but his fastball is only 85-90 mph. The White Sox changed his arm slot this year so that he's now coming out at a sidearm angle. Neither his curve nor his changeup really stand out, either, but his ball has a lot of tailing movement away from righthanded hitters, and it chews them up. He's not conventional, but he could have a future in a bullpen getting righthanders out.

 

 

[Chisoxfn]

This is extremely disappointing. We didn't draft Poreda with the intention of developing him into the next Matt Thornton. If he doesn't develop several secondary pitches by next season, whether in Kannapolis or Winston Salem, then the criticism should be in full force.

 

Also, SSI71 sent me this link:

 

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20...rtnered=rss_cws

 

Merkin addressed several issues discussed on this website concerning the upcoming draft. I find it funny how he mentions in the last paragraph about winning every game this point forward. Almost as if he's indirectly commenting on those of us who believe losing here on out is more beneficial to our future.

I think the most interesting thing, and Cheat brought it up over at SouthSideSox as well, is that the Sox need to really focus on there top 10 guys and scout them like crazy. Money should not be an issue as all indications lead to the Sox signing a type A free agent which would cost them there 2nd round pick (meaning that while the 1st round pick will get at least 2M of a bonus, possibly more, they should be able to recoup some of that with them not having a 2nd rounder).

 

However, I would like to see the Sox (regardless of what they give there 1st round pick) still go above slot money and give a 3rd rounder or a couple 10th rounders (who would be worthy of being 2nd or 3rd round picks) a share of the money that would have gone to the 2nd round pick in order to get more talent in here (I truly think this is where the Yanks/Red Sox/Angels have done so well as of late as it allows them to get more talents in with true upside and that means you have a better chance of pulling out a couple good players out of each draft).

[29andPoplar]

This is extremely disappointing. We didn't draft Poreda with the intention of developing him into the next Matt Thornton. If he doesn't develop several secondary pitches by next season, whether in Kannapolis or Winston Salem, then the criticism should be in full force.

 

Also, SSI71 sent me this link:

 

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20...rtnered=rss_cws

 

Merkin addressed several issues discussed on this website concerning the upcoming draft. I find it funny how he mentions in the last paragraph about winning every game this point forward. Almost as if he's indirectly commenting on those of us who believe losing here on out is more beneficial to our future.

 

Please don't overreact on Poreda one way or the other, nor should you take everything Baseball America says as gospel. Otherwise you will be even more disappointed.

 

This was an extremely positive debut for Poreda and he fooled a lot of guys with his slider. With a fastball like he has, the slider doesn't have to be plus plus. Anyways we will see how he does next year.

 

Yes, Scott Merkin does get a kick out of some of the things he sees posted on message boards. He has his opinions, other people have theirs. He claims to read WSI but I never asked if he reads this one. I had a nice chat with him in Tucson a year ago, nice guy.

 

By the way, I just re-read that article. Merkin isn't directly or indirectly commenting or mentioning anything in the last paragraph, he's quoting Doug Laumann.

Edited September 25, 2007 by 29andPoplar

[29andPoplar]

The whole point of talking prospects is you basically discuss a players upside as well as the potential for them to reach that upside (some players have superb upside but the odds of them making it are very very slim due to mechanical flaws...see Collaro/Borchard/Brian Anderson or on the pitching end Andrew Sisco).

 

Great comment and on that note here is what they said in the chat about Salvador Sanchez.

 

Warren from Texas asks:

Use your crystal ball and Predict Salvador Sanchez' future five years from now. Thanks for the chat.

 

A: Ben Badler: Well, I'm not some kind of sorcerer, so I can't look into a crystal ball, but I will say that the forecast for Sanchez has a fairly wide range of outcomes, everything from a talented big leaguer to a flameout. Maybe that seems like some kind of a cop out answer, but it's the truth. Some people who saw Sanchez thought he was one of the top prospects in the league because his combination of power and speed might be unmatched in the Pioneer League this year. He played mostly right field this year and has a plus arm, but he played some center field and would be more valuable there. His slash stats—.343.394.544—look nice on the surface, but his high on-base percentage was largely fueled by his .343 batting average, which I don't think is sustainable for a hitter who strikes out in 19 percent of his plate appearances at this level. The power is real, but his plate discipline has always been poor and it needs to improve. He was 21 years old this season, so he’ll have to give low A another try after not faring so well there in his first stint.

 

 

[29andPoplar]

Comments on Jimmy Gallagher.

 

joe from chicago asks:

First, cudos on Duane Shafer's last draft in Chicago. I believe Jimmy Gallagher from Great Falls was left off the Pioneer League All-Star teams. That he made #18 on the prospect list for the league was major redemption for what was a very consistent and above average first season. He was the Coastal Plains Lg. MVP last summer and continued to hit at DUKE this year. He sounds like a solid candidate to be a 4th outfielder on a championship team and a possible starter on a 2nd division team. I heard a few comparisons to a lesser Erstad. Any thoughts? Could he be packaged in the off-season in the back end of a trade?

 

A: Ben Badler: First off, he won't be traded in the off-season because he was just drafted in June. I don't see the Erstad comp working at all. Erstad was a very toolsy player, and Gallagher is quite the opposite. Gallagher will improve as he gets older, but his improvement is going to be in much smaller increments than you will see from a player like Austin Gallagher or Jaime Ortiz. Gallagher is a tremendously intelligent hitter, and was able to prey upon inferior Pioneer League pitchers. I tried to find managers, coaches or scouts who liked his tools, but while his plate discipline is top notch, his tools really are fringy. The other thing going against him is that Gallagher can’t play a premium defensive position. If he could play second base, for example, he would rank much higher on this list. He did play a little bit in center field this year, but scouts say his range and below average arm are going to confine him to left field. The bar is set extremely high for a player to have value at that position. The numbers are great, but the statistics are only an estimate of a player’s true skills; we rely on the knowledge of scouts to paint the rest of the picture. All that said, he’s on this list because he does have potential, and I could certainly see him outperforming many of the guys ahead of him on this list.

 

 

[Chisoxfn]

Great comment and on that note here is what they said in the chat about Salvador Sanchez.

 

Warren from Texas asks:

Use your crystal ball and Predict Salvador Sanchez' future five years from now. Thanks for the chat.

 

A: Ben Badler: Well, I'm not some kind of sorcerer, so I can't look into a crystal ball, but I will say that the forecast for Sanchez has a fairly wide range of outcomes, everything from a talented big leaguer to a flameout. Maybe that seems like some kind of a cop out answer, but it's the truth. Some people who saw Sanchez thought he was one of the top prospects in the league because his combination of power and speed might be unmatched in the Pioneer League this year. He played mostly right field this year and has a plus arm, but he played some center field and would be more valuable there. His slash stats—.343.394.544—look nice on the surface, but his high on-base percentage was largely fueled by his .343 batting average, which I don't think is sustainable for a hitter who strikes out in 19 percent of his plate appearances at this level. The power is real, but his plate discipline has always been poor and it needs to improve. He was 21 years old this season, so he’ll have to give low A another try after not faring so well there in his first stint.

Sanchez is definitely one of those high tools guys that lacks on major tool (pure baseball skill). Yes he has the ability to generate power (and projects to generate more), great speed, a strong arm, but he does not yet have great baseball skill or IQ (which I really think should be evaluated as a tool). That means he doesn't have the greatest strike zone judgement or the greatest swing (he has very good bat speed but even that doesn't make up for a swing that can get too loopy, although his greatest issue is definitely that of strike zone judgement).

 

If he can overcome those IQ issues (some guys will eventually have a switch flip and just come on strong...heck look at how long it took Sammy Sosa (roids be damned, he still was a good talent and it took him a long time to finally have it switch) for his switch to truly flip) he truly could be a very strong all around player (above average defense, great speed on the paths, 20HR power, .300 AVG....basically everything). The thing is he has yet to show he has made enough strides in that area (hopefully his improved short season numbers are indications of him making strides though and we will see those carry over as he repeats full season ball somewhere next year).

[Gregory Pratt]

Do you have to post everything in a smart-ass tone. The guy was called the most dominant pick of the draft. He obviously performed well. Why do you have to take everything to the extreme?

 

I take things to extremes and you don't, ever. Right right right. Like the time you accused me of hating all Chicago coaches ignoring the fact that I

 

Really, I just wanted to point out that Poreda did what is expected of him at that stage and it doesn't mean much of anything. You were talking about his dominance with one pitch as if it meant that he'd be able to carry that into the future. That simply isn't so. If Poreda can't develop good secondary pitches, he's going to grow up and be Matt Thornton. And I love Thornton's arm, or did before it lost some heat this year and hitters started lighting him up because they expected strikes, but that isn't a high ceiling.

[NorthSideSox72]

I take things to extremes and you don't, ever. Right right right. Like the time you accused me of hating all Chicago coaches ignoring the fact that I

 

Really, I just wanted to point out that Poreda did what is expected of him at that stage and it doesn't mean much of anything. You were talking about his dominance with one pitch as if it meant that he'd be able to carry that into the future. That simply isn't so. If Poreda can't develop good secondary pitches, he's going to grow up and be Matt Thornton. And I love Thornton's arm, or did before it lost some heat this year and hitters started lighting him up because they expected strikes, but that isn't a high ceiling.

As 29 and others have pointed out, there is zero chance that Poreda was that successful with one pitch, even in Rookie ball. I am sure his other stuff needs work, but to say he doesn't have it is just not plausible given the results.

 

 

[fathom]

FWIW, I have it on good authority that if Fields was eligible for the IL rankings, he would have been 4th (Bailey, Garza, Slowey).