Why Not Owens?

[Marky Mark]

For those who don't want or don't think Jerry Owens is a good candidate for starting CF explain why? I'm not saying I personally think he should get the spot, I'm just curious why many don't like him, the idea of him starting seems like a common fear for some on soxtalk. A .324 OBP is not good, but considering it's his rookie year and he has had some decent minor league seasons, I'm confused why so many oppose the idea of him starting. Explain your reasoning.

[max power]

Noodle arm, no power, not reliable enough to be a lead off hitter which we need. He could be a pretty decent player when all is said and done but I want him as my starting CF when options like rowand and hunter are the alternatives but I'd rather have him than pods or grinder.

[greg775]

I agree completely with max.

Owens is starting to win me over, but can't compare to Hunter or Rowand.

He stole so many bases that I won't be pissed anymore if he's the starter.

 

[NorthSideSox72]

He's not the worst option, and not nearly as bad as some people here make him out to be. But he does have some serious flaws.

 

Positives...

--Owens had a .342 OBP during his callup since early July - already close to what Pods had in 2005

--Obviously Jerry is both fast, and a good basestealer (seems like he hovers around 80%, excellent for a rookie)

--His overall defense in CF (arm excluded for now) was pretty decent, certainly better than most of us expected

--He is getting good at bunting and situational hitting

--His athleticism allows him to improve quickly in most areas

 

Negatives...

--He has virtually zero power. He might develop this over time, but as of now, he doesn't even hit enough doubles and triples yet

--His arm is weak. Like, really weak. It may or may not be caused by an injury, but its still an issue in any case

 

If I recall correctly, Owens is playing fall ball in Arizona. If he can start to develop at least some gap power and raise his doubles/triples numbers, and if that arm really will get better after healing in the offseason, then I think he is not the worst guy to start on a good team.

 

That all said, he still (even if those two things get better) is not as good an option as a Hunter, Rowand or other players being talked about here (in which case Owens makes a nifty 4th OF). But if we cannot acquire a player at that level, and if we are able to seriously upgrade SS and maybe 2B, then I for one would be OK with Owens starting in 2008. I am in the small minority that believes that.

 

[Heads22]

He's not a centerfielder.

[NorthSideSox72]

He's not a centerfielder.

Only because of his arm. Otherwise, he is already better out there than some starting CF's in this league.

 

[Rowand44]

He's not a centerfielder.

He really was a lot, lot, lot better defensively than I expected. Offensively, he's got a loooooong way to go and if he's starting this upcoming season we're going to be in some trouble imo. I got to admit that I like him a lot more now than I did at this time last year but in no way should he be starting next season.

[Rowand44]

Only because of his arm. Otherwise, he is already better out there than some starting CF's in this league.

I agree. I was very happy with his defense.

[Heads22]

Only because of his arm. Otherwise, he is already better out there than some starting CF's in this league.

 

A centerfielder that can consistently give up an extra base to a baserunner can really hurt a team. I don't like the fact that he has to double hop it to the cutoff guy.

[ChiSox_Sonix]

He's not the worst option, and not nearly as bad as some people here make him out to be. But he does have some serious flaws.

 

Positives...

--Owens had a .342 OBP during his callup since early July - already close to what Pods had in 2005

--Obviously Jerry is both fast, and a good basestealer (seems like he hovers around 80%, excellent for a rookie)

--His overall defense in CF (arm excluded for now) was pretty decent, certainly better than most of us expected

--He is getting good at bunting and situational hitting

--His athleticism allows him to improve quickly in most areas

 

Negatives...

--He has virtually zero power. He might develop this over time, but as of now, he doesn't even hit enough doubles and triples yet

--His arm is weak. Like, really weak. It may or may not be caused by an injury, but its still an issue in any case

 

If I recall correctly, Owens is playing fall ball in Arizona. If he can start to develop at least some gap power and raise his doubles/triples numbers, and if that arm really will get better after healing in the offseason, then I think he is not the worst guy to start on a good team.

 

That all said, he still (even if those two things get better) is not as good an option as a Hunter, Rowand or other players being talked about here (in which case Owens makes a nifty 4th OF). But if we cannot acquire a player at that level, and if we are able to seriously upgrade SS and maybe 2B, then I for one would be OK with Owens starting in 2008. I am in the small minority that believes that.

 

 

I completely agree. I can thionk of a lot worse things than Owens starting next year. Yes, he has some flaws without a doubt. But, he was a rookie who hit nearly .270 with a decent OBP following his second callup and stole 30 bases in half a season. Its not as if hes a 37 year old 10 year veteran putting up those kind of numbers. Its true he is/was old for a rookie. But he was old in years, not experience. Remember, he focused on football for a long time before switching to baseball. IMO, Owens has room and the ability to improve and i really would not mind giving him a chance next year.

[Balta1701]

Let me put it this way.

 

If Juan Uribe is our starting SS next April, then we better not have Jerry Owens hitting leadoff and playing CF for us.

 

But, if Juan Uribe is not our starting SS...if we are actually able to upgrade there (And by upgrade, I don't mean a nearly lateral move like Eckstein or Vizquel), then I have no issues with JO playing CF and hitting at/near the top of our lineup.

 

Kind of wierd logic I know, but I guess my thinking is that I'm willing to risk going with JO in the OF more and potentially lose some offense generation at that point more if I feel we've gained some run generation by upgrading at SS, and an upgrade at SS potentially gives us another leadoff option if Owens does wet the bed.

 

The one thing I don't like the idea of though is blocking JO by spending $100 mil on Hunter or $80 mil on Rowand. Its entirely possible Owens could give us good production at a fraction of the cost (good is not equal to, of course) and that money would make much more of a difference if spent upgrading at SS.

 

Without unlimited resources, the way I build my OF next year is thus; start with Fields, Owens, Dye. Now, I need at least one more thing; a backup, right handed hitting OF who is good enough to give me 300+ at bats. Why? Because I want to have the option of putting Dye at DH on days when we're facing a lefty, thus resting his legs and Thome's body and hopefully keeping everyone a little healthier. And on days when Fields or Owens need an off day, that guy could slide right in. Does anyone have any suggestions for this caliber of player?

[ChiSox_Sonix]

Kind of wierd logic I know, but I guess my thinking is that I'm willing to risk going with JO in the OF more and potentially lose some offense generation at that point more if I feel we've gained some run generation by upgrading at SS, and an upgrade at SS potentially gives us another leadoff option if Owens does wet the bed.

 

 

You mention getting more offensive production at SS, but i think people often fail to realize that over the past few seasons Juan Uribe has consistently been around the 20HR/70 RBI range. I dont know if theres anyone out there we can upgrade with to significantly better those numbers.

[kevo880]

You mention getting more offensive production at SS, but i think people often fail to realize that over the past few seasons Juan Uribe has consistently been around the 20HR/70 RBI range. I dont know if theres anyone out there we can upgrade with to significantly better those numbers.

 

yeah but his batting average and basically every other number has declined drastically over the last few seasons

[Balta1701]

You mention getting more offensive production at SS, but i think people often fail to realize that over the past few seasons Juan Uribe has consistently been around the 20HR/70 RBI range. I dont know if theres anyone out there we can upgrade with to significantly better those numbers.

With the Boppers we already have in this lineup, I don't think we need a downgraded version of Rob Deer. I want OBP and some speed. When I look at this lineup, I could literally see us getting 160 home runs out of 4 guys next year if they stay healthy, and probably 130 on the low end if things go as badly as they did this year. And if you throw in a decent season from Crede, you're talking 180-190 from 5 guys. We're going to kill the ball whether we keep Uribe or not. It'd be really nice if we could have someone on base for those. Which is why that .350+ OBP from Owens (roughly league average for leadoff hitters) would be so important and such a huge upgrade from the Erstad/Pods/rookie Owens in June mess we saw this year.

Edited October 5, 2007 by Balta1701

[Heads22]

Could always see Garland and Uribe being shopped to the Pads for Kahlil Greene and others, unless I missed something and he was extended...

[Dick Allen]

yeah but his batting average and basically every other number has declined drastically over the last few seasons

2005 .252 16 HR 71 RBI .301 OBP

2006 .235 21 HR 71 RBI .257 OBP

2007 .234 20 HR 68 RBI .284 OBP

 

The last 3 seasons, he's been pretty consistent. Great for a SS in HR and RBI, everything else, pretty bad. The problem with his good numbers is that they are accumulated in very few games. He does have the ability to be a very good offensive player. I am of the belief he will have an outstanding year some year. $5 million is a lot, but he will be playing for a contract, so his "laziness" may not be in existence in 2008. I would only upgrade if the upgrade was obvious, not an Eckstein-like in other words, and certainly not Lopez. Furcal, ARod, Tejada, would all be acceptable.

 

It will be interesting to see what the payroll will be. I think KW had more to play with this year, but chose not to use it, perhaps to keep from having his hands tied coming into this offseason. The fact that they claimed Tejada and risked assuming the contract, (although it was a very slight risk Baltimore would have just let him go) indicates to me KW may actually be able to shoot for the moon.

[Balta1701]

Could always see Garland and Uribe being shopped to the Pads for Kahlil Greene and others, unless I missed something and he was extended...

No, but he is arb-eligible through 09 according to Roto.

 

Right now, I think that Greene, Furcal, and Renteria, or even better, the young guys those last 2 are blocking (Escobar and Hu) would be ideal targets for the Sox this offseason if they were to deal Jon Garland. I think that, if those guys perform up to the levels where they should, any of those deals solve an awful lot of our problems for next year.

[RockRaines]

Basically Jerry's only real negative is that he lacks SLG and his OBP could be higher. With that said I think alot of people in this thread are really exaggerating how bad his arm is. Its certainly better than PODS and is manageable with the two cannons in LF and RF. If he can hover around a .350+OBP I would say that he would be my lead off hitter for sure. He could steal over 50 bases next year with a full season under his belt. He makes the league min which helps us address other areas of the team like the pen and SS.

[Balta1701]

Basically Jerry's only real negative is that he lacks SLG and his OBP could be higher. With that said I think alot of people in this thread are really exaggerating how bad his arm is. Its certainly better than PODS and is manageable with the two cannons in LF and RF. If he can hover around a .350+OBP I would say that he would be my lead off hitter for sure. He could steal over 50 bases next year with a full season under his belt. He makes the league min which helps us address other areas of the team like the pen and SS.

His OBP could have been higher than it was this season, but part of that is that his numbers were terrible during his first callup. His numbers were significantly improved in his 2nd callup, and despite the lack of any meaningful games in September, it's also worth noting that he did put up even better numbers in August and September w/regards to taking walks (roughly 1/10 at bats, which is just about where he was in the minors this year).

[Heads22]

No, but he is arb-eligible through 09 according to Roto.

 

Right now, I think that Greene, Furcal, and Renteria, or even better, the young guys those last 2 are blocking (Escobar and Hu) would be ideal targets for the Sox this offseason if they were to deal Jon Garland. I think that, if those guys perform up to the levels where they should, any of those deals solve an awful lot of our problems for next year.

 

I sure wouldn't mind Furcal either.

[fathom]

Why does everyone want Furcal so much? Doesn't he only have one year left on his deal, and he's also a Boras client? We'd likely have to give up Garland to get him, and I'd rather get someone that can help out the organization a lot longer than one season (a season in which we're not likely to compete for the pennant).

[Jeremy]

For those who don't want or don't think Jerry Owens is a good candidate for starting CF explain why? I'm not saying I personally think he should get the spot, I'm just curious why many don't like him, the idea of him starting seems like a common fear for some on soxtalk. A .324 OBP is not good, but considering it's his rookie year and he has had some decent minor league seasons, I'm confused why so many oppose the idea of him starting. Explain your reasoning.

 

I could tolerate Owens in CF next season, particularly because I'm not very excited about throwing boatloads of cash at Rowand or Hunter. I think referring to him as a rookie is a bit misleading though since he'll be 27 next season. Odds are he won't get much better than this and his SLG% isn't pretty.

[Kalapse]

Why does everyone want Furcal so much? Doesn't he only have one year left on his deal, and he's also a Boras client? We'd likely have to give up Garland to get him, and I'd rather get someone that can help out the organization a lot longer than one season (a season in which we're not likely to compete for the pennant).

Rafael Furcal is not a Boras client and will only be 30 years of age for the majority of the 2008 season.

[Balta1701]

Rafael Furcal is not a Boras client and will only be 30 years of age for the majority of the 2008 season.

And...if Mr. Furcal were to walk, we still get the 2 draft picks we'd get if Garland walked. And we have a LOT more depth at starting pitcher than we have at SS. I'd much rather find out whether or not Floyd, Haeger, or Broadway can cut it next year for $400k than find out if Uribe can finally prove he's worth $5 million.

[fathom]

And...if Mr. Furcal were to walk, we still get the 2 draft picks we'd get if Garland walked. And we have a LOT more depth at starting pitcher than we have at SS. I'd much rather find out whether or not Floyd, Haeger, or Broadway can cut it next year for $400k than find out if Uribe can finally prove he's worth $5 million.

 

If you're going with the young guys in the rotation, you're probably not going to compete for the pennant. With that in mind, why not try and find a SS that you might be able to have for a few seasons?