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White Sox Fall/Winter League Discussion Thread


NorthSideSox72

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QUOTE(CWSGuy406 @ Nov 13, 2007 -> 07:07 PM)
Christ... you're certainly on a roll today.

 

Pedroia, seriously? The same Pedroia who at 21 was already at AAA (Getz is already 24 and hasn't tasted Charlotte)? The same Pedroia whose minor league OPS is over .140 points better than Getz'?

 

That's a brutal comp.

 

Dig more into the details... I don't think the comparison is that bad.

 

Pedroia

 

Getz

 

Pedroia and Getz are almost exactly the same age (both 24 in August). Pedroia started his pro career in 2004. Getz started one year later (2005).

 

Pedroia and Getz each had one 'bad' year in the minors after promotions that had them skip an entire level. Getz jumped from Kannapolis (low-A) to Birmingham (AA) in 2006 and sucked hitting .256. Pedroia jumped from advanced-A to AAA in 2005 and sucked batting .255. (The difference is that in Getz's suck year he had over 500 at-bats while Pedroia's had only 200.)

 

So the 3-year average minor league OPS difference is misleading. Take away the at-bats difference in their 'suck year' and their batting averages and OBP are actually very close.

 

Look at their most recent minor league years for example:

- Pedroia at AAA in 2006 - .305/384/.807

- Getz at AA in 2007 - .299/.382/.763 in an injury shortened year (about 1/2 a year; and he was playing much better than this before he got hurt in June)*

 

*How Getz started the year before getting injured...

April 2007 - .292/.406/.855

May 2007 - .348/.416/.807

 

The Point...

- I'm not holding out hope that Getz steps up and wins ROY next year or anything like that...

- But I don't think the comparison between them is bad... and it's definitely not 'brutal'.

Edited by scenario
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It most definitely is a brutal comparison. You're ignoring age. Yes, they're the same age -- one has already accumulated 600+ at-bats at the major league level, the other can't even dominate AA.

 

Getz jumped from low-A to AA because he was a fast track player. He couldn't afford to lose a year because of sucking (2006), much less another half year because of injury (2007).

 

I also like how you ignore slugging percentage. Yes, let's ignore (arguably) Pedroia's best asset and Getz worst trait, a trait that will keep Getz from ever being a good starting major league ballplayer.

 

Let's take a look at Getz' 2007. He should have done what he did the first two months at AA. He was a 23 year old who was repeating the level. I don't view his first two months as a success -- I view it as a player who, if he hopes to stay on the 'prospect' map at all, he damn well better hit the ball. And that .383 slugging percentage is still an eyesore and, because (it appears) he can't hit the ball very far out of the infield, that high OBP is very unlikely to stay at .380 as he moves upwards.

 

But you're right -- a comparison between a maybe-could-be utility guy (if we squint our eyes real real good) and a starting second baseman who just posted a .822 OPS for the World Champions is completely apt. Riiiight...

 

Dustin Pedroia is one of the top ten second baseman in all of baseball right now. Top ten is also extremely conservative -- without looking at it too hard, the only guys I'd rather have over him are Robinson Cano, Placido Polanco (only for next season -- not for the long haul), maybe Howie Kendrick, Jeff Kent (again only for next season), Chase Utley, maybe Rickie Weeks and Kelly Johnson. That puts him better than top ten. A "lesser" Dustin Pedroia would be an average starting second baseman with good power and OBP skills. Getz may have one of those going forward, IF he is able to keep his OBP despite the fact that he won't slug over .400 at the major league level.

Edited by CWSGuy406
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lesser, poor man's, whatever. Of course he isn't on the same level as Pedroia. I just thought they were similar as neither has a ton of power, but Pedroia has more. Also, they both have very good eyes and have good bat control as they both walk more as they strikeout. My comparison, not a projection, is that Chris Getz is a lesser/poor man's version of Dustin Pedroia. They are similar players, but obviously Pedroia is better, as I highly doubt Getz ever wins ROY.

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QUOTE(RockRaines @ Nov 16, 2007 -> 12:57 PM)
Looks like Sweeney picked it up a little. I hope he was working on his swing or something in the AFL because his SLG sucks beyond belief.

Its pretty weird. His first 21 hits were ALL singles, then all of a sudden his last few games he gets a bunch of doubles and a home run.

 

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QUOTE(RockRaines @ Nov 16, 2007 -> 01:24 PM)
Right? Doesnt it seem a bit strange? Like he was working on something.

Well, they are down there to learn. I guess that may include some experimentation.

 

Also... it may be that its taken a while for his wrist to heal, and now he can turn over that top hand a little better.

 

 

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QUOTE(RockRaines @ Nov 16, 2007 -> 12:57 PM)
Looks like Sweeney picked it up a little. I hope he was working on his swing or something in the AFL because his SLG sucks beyond belief.

At the beginning of the AFL I watched an interview or something and Sweeney said he was going to just work on his swing and go from there. And today on WhiteSox.com they post the article farther pointing out that Sweeney has indeed been working on his swing this AFL.

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There really is no correlation between where players stand as serious prospects and their performance in the AFL.

 

Alot of 'top prospects' sucked in the AFL this year.

 

Take a look at Baseball America's top 20 prospects playing in the AFL and then look at their performances.

 

Some did well. Some were horrible.

 

So, I'm not sure that teams place that much importance on the players AFL stats.

Edited by scenario
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Final AFL numbers for Sox players (I added the playoff game stats in for Sweeney and Getz). 6 of the 7 Sox players sent down there had what appear, statistically, to be good seasons...

 

Ryan Sweeney (played multiple OF positions)

Sweeney started off somewhat tepidly, and didn't muster any power numbers through most of the season. According to an article on the White Sox website though, he had been tasked with tweaking his hitting approach and swing. His first 20 hits were all singles. But then suddenly in his last few games, he turned on the power - in his last 3 games (including the championship game) he went 6-for-13 with 3 doubles and a HR.

  AVG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI TB BB SO SB CS OBP SLG OPS 
.295 24 88 15 26 3 0 1 14 32 10 18 5  1 .367 .364 .731

 

Chris Getz (2B)

Chris makde good, consistent contact, got on base at a .360 clip, and walked twice as often as he struck out. There was very little in the way of power, but that's not something to be expected from him anyway. Getz should be in Charlotte next year, but its possible he may get a look as a backup infielder in Spring Training.

  AVG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI TB BB SO SB CS OBP SLG OPS 
.286 22 84 13 24 3 0 0  9 27 10 5  2 2 .362 .321 .683

 

Donny Lucy ©

Lucy started ice cold at the plate, going 1 for his first 17 at bats. He turned it up a litle late in the season, going 7 for his last 23 (.304), but even that was only good enough to get his average to .200. He also made a number of errors defensively. It appeared to not be a good AFL season for Donny, who will need to show he can hit at AAA Charlotte in 2008 if he wants a chance to play at the major league level.

  AVG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI TB BB SO SB CS OBP SLG OPS 
.200 13 40 2 8 1 0 0  3   9  2  16  1 0 .238 .225 .463

 

Jack Egbert (SP)

Eggy had a couple of so-so outings in late October, but otherwise had a strong AFL season. In 6 starts he put together a 3.26 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP.

W L ERA G GS CG SHO SV IP H R ER HR BB SO GO/AO AVG 
1 0 3.26 6 6 0  0  0 19.1 14 7 7 0 11 17 1.35 .215

 

Dewon Day (RP)

Dewon had a very good AFL season in relief, allowing just 2 ER in 13 innings pitched and a 1.00 WHIP, along with striking out 17 in just 13 innings. Day will likely be given a look for the 2008 bullpen in Spring Training, but otherwise would be in Charlotte.

W L ERA G GS CG SHO SV IP H R ER HR BB SO GO/AO AVG 
0 1 1.38 11 0  0  0 0 13.0 9 2 2 0  4 17 2.50 .196

 

Fernando Hernandez (RP)

A pitcher not generally discussed in the same sentence as the word "prospect", Hernandez put together a very solid AFL season. He allowed no earned runs, had a miniscule 0.71 WHIP and struck out 11 in his 12.2 IP. After coming off very solid seasons at High A Winston Salem (2006 - 1.93 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 81 K in 65 IP) and Birmingham (2007 - 3.06 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 84 K in 85.1 IP), then doing this well with his invite to fall ball, one wonders if maybe the organization is starting to take Fernando seriously as a prospect. We'll see if he gets a ST invite.

W L ERA G GS CG SHO SV IP H R ER HR BB SO GO/AO AVG 
0 0 0.00 12 0  0  0 2 12.2 5 2 0 0  4 11 1.15 .114

 

Adam Russell (RP)

Russell, who is said to be under consideration for 2008 bullpen duties with the big cub, had a solid AFL season, though he did struggle with his control a bit. In 16 IP, he gave up 16 hits and walked 8 for a 1.50 WHIP, which isn't great. But his 2.81 ERA and 16 K's were decent. He's likely to get a Spring Training invite.

W L ERA G GS CG SHO SV IP H R ER HR BB SO GO/AO AVG 
2 0 2.81 11 0  0  0 0 16.0 16 6 5 0 8 16  2.09 .262

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  • 4 weeks later...
QUOTE(southsideirish @ Dec 19, 2007 -> 02:42 PM)
So why can't sweeney be the White Sox CF/leadoff hitter during the 2008 season? At least have a chance to be? Do most see him as a 4A player and he really isn't a major league starter?

I'd love to see him as a major league hitter, but he isn't there yet. Counting the injuries, he regressed last year compared to the year before, which is a bad sign when you're repeating AAA in a hitters park. His power still hasn't developed and he seemed to have some swing issues. He has put up a .350 or so OBP in each of the last 2 years, but last year he only hit .270 and his Slugging dropped by 50 points, taking his OPS from 800 to 750.

 

He gets off to a hot start at Charlotte ok, I'd be happy to bring him up, but I really want to see something positive from him in AAA before bringing him to the big leagues again.

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