Southern League Top 20

[Heads22]

Give me a break -- you know as well as I that he's a fringe prospect who has a lot to prove. And since you didn't answer my question -- which player does he belong on the list over -- I'm not going to waste time explaining to you why Egbert's age is a factor.

 

Where did I ever mention his being on the list or not? I didn't even look at the list, but it sounds like his age is one of the reasons you are marginalizing him as a prospect.

[Gregory Pratt]

Where did I ever mention his being on the list or not? I didn't even look at the list, but it sounds like his age is one of the reasons you are marginalizing him as a prospect.

 

Says the guy who likes him because of his name.

 

See the above post -- I'm not trying to trash the guy. I admire his ethic and his work, but that doesn't spell success and I don't think he has the stuff to be much more than bad at the ML level.

[WatchIt]

You were making incredibly sarcastic comments to hitlesswonder. I wasn't "attacking" you -- I was definitely teasing you, but I thought you could handle such, especially when you're going off about how someone claimed Egbert will never make it when they didn't say such a thing. And you think I should grow up? Your suggestion is noted. Now I think you should grow up.

His velocity is mid-80s, if I recall correctly, and he's beating up minor leaguers in a pitcher's park at an age where success doesn't necessarily indicate he's got a huge ML future.

 

He definitely doesn't belong on that list, and it still baffles me that anybody thinks so.

 

 

I have never seen him pitch live, but I can say I have seen a lot of scouting reports on him, and have read everything from 86-92 listed as his FB velocity in varying reports. I do however live in Scottsdale, and will definitely be going to see him and the Desert Dogs this fall, so I can tell you what I see when I go.

[Heads22]

Says the guy who likes him because of his name.

 

See the above post -- I'm not trying to trash the guy. I admire his ethic and his work, but that doesn't spell success and I don't think he has the stuff to be much more than bad at the ML level.

 

I'm just asking why you feel that he has the ceiling of "bad". Have you seen him pitch? Have you been communicating with scouts or staffers in Birmingham? Are you going off of anything more than a hunch?

[Gregory Pratt]

He's a White Sox prospect.

 

Why do I feel he's got a bad ceiling? He doesn't have particularly noteworthy stuff. That's about the long and short of it.

[Flash Tizzle]

That said, it is really hard to ignore all of his peripherals; K/9 of 9, K/BB of 4, 0.16 HR/9, 1.13 WHIP, 7.5 H/9, 1.93 GO/AO, and I'm sure there are more and more.

Which is all the more encouraging if his velocity is as what's reported in this thread. How often do pitchers throwing below 90 miss bats at such a high rate and limit home runs without deception, specialty pitches or superb location? He obviously has something to his benefit which explains the success of these last two seasons. Pitching without fear isn't reason alone.

[WatchIt]

He's a White Sox prospect.

 

Why do I feel he's got a bad ceiling? He doesn't have particularly noteworthy stuff. That's about the long and short of it.

 

So, to repeat the question head asked you, have you seen him pitch?

[NorthSideSox72]

Which is all the more encouraging if his velocity is as what's reported in this thread. How often do pitchers throwing below 90 miss bats at such a high rate and limit home runs without deception, specialty pitches or superb location? He obviously has something to his benefit which explains the success of these last two seasons. Pitching without fear isn't reason alone.

I think you are getting at a real key here. When a player or pitcher succeeds repeatedly despite not having some particular key bit of "stuff", instead of wondering what it is about the player that is being missed, some people just decide it must be luck. Or the ballpark. Or anything other than maybe their method of evaluation (i.e. velocity) isn't perfect.

 

Also... stuff is not the same as velocity. If he is getting people out as often and with as many K's as he is at multiple levels, with a fastball not much above 90, then he clearly does indeed have good stuff.

 

[Flash Tizzle]

He's a White Sox prospect.

 

Why do I feel he's got a bad ceiling? He doesn't have particularly noteworthy stuff. That's about the long and short of it.

That's the best argument anyone can provide as to why Egbert won't ever become a pitcher of value.

 

Too bad other teams don't overvalue 5th starters. If Egbert becomes just that, we'll have just about cornered the market.

[witesoxfan]

Which is all the more encouraging if his velocity is as what's reported in this thread. How often do pitchers throwing below 90 miss bats at such a high rate and limit home runs without deception, specialty pitches or superb location? He obviously has something to his benefit which explains the success of these last two seasons. Pitching without fear isn't reason alone.

 

I'm still concerned about why his ERA jumped as it did when Lucy was promoted. He went from allowing an OPSA of .679 or lower in April, May, June, and July, and then it climbed all the way up to .799 in August, which coincided with Lucy's promotion. I would prefer to see what he can do in AAA with a different catcher next year, because if he's going to succeed in the majors, he's going to have to be able to work with a different catcher; Lucy is not starting material.

[Heads22]

I'm still concerned about why his ERA jumped as it did when Lucy was promoted. He went from allowing an OPSA of .679 or lower in April, May, June, and July, and then it climbed all the way up to .799 in August, which coincided with Lucy's promotion. I would prefer to see what he can do in AAA with a different catcher next year, because if he's going to succeed in the majors, he's going to have to be able to work with a different catcher; Lucy is not starting material.

 

That was one of my concerns as well.

[Flash Tizzle]

I think you are getting at a real key here. When a player or pitcher succeeds repeatedly despite not having some particular key bit of "stuff", instead of wondering what it is about the player that is being missed, some people just decide it must be luck. Or the ballpark. Or anything other than maybe their method of evaluation (i.e. velocity) isn't perfect.

 

Also... stuff is not the same as velocity. If he is getting people out as often and with as many K's as he is at multiple levels, with a fastball not much above 90, then he clearly does indeed have good stuff.

This is what I was getting at. His fastball is a focal point for assessing his "stuff," yet the secondary offerings obviously are sufficient enough to pile up strikeouts. This is why I -- as well as you -- believe people are quick to label him a fringe prospect.

 

And yes (not addressing you NSS), I know I continually call for prospects to be drafted with velocity. These are the pitchers I'd prefer. However, whether someone throws 90 or 99 if they're succeeding in their role Im satisfied.

Edited October 12, 2007 by Flash Tizzle

[Gregory Pratt]

No, I haven't seen him pitch. Yes, I've spoken to one person who has, in person, and a few others who are familiar, from people on this site to a few other people I know. After that, I don't owe this thread anything and don't wish to contribute more. I don't think it's a crime he's not on the list, he's got a lot to prove, I admire his ethic and success so far. We'll see what happens.

[Heads22]

No, I haven't seen him pitch. Yes, I've spoken to one person who has, in person, and a few others who are familiar, from people on this site to a few other people I know. After that, I don't owe this thread anything and don't wish to contribute more. I don't think it's a crime he's not on the list, he's got a lot to prove, I admire his ethic and success so far. We'll see what happens.

 

 

need to get back to Schuerholz Vigil '07, eh?

[Gregory Pratt]

need to get back to Schuerholz Vigil '07, eh?

 

 

You know I have nothing but respect and friendship for you, my man.

 

But yes.

 

And besides, I don't want to post the same thing a million times over about Egbert. I'd rather leave with a more reasonable, balanced post.

[Flash Tizzle]

That was one of my concerns as well.

Any catcher Egbert pitches to from this point forward will be far better than any of Birmingham's post-Lucy journeymen.

 

He'll more than likely be teamed up with Lucy in Charlotte, anyways. So we'll see whether his success carries over there.

 

[Flash Tizzle]

Flash, you really should jump on the Hawks bandwagon. You would be drooling over the kids up with the big club, along with the farm system in place....

Where's our Sidney Crosby?

 

Well, the first order of business would be understanding hockey. I've never been a fan, although I'm not one to yell "hockey sux!11"

 

[Chisoxfn]

He doesn't have much of a fastball and as such doesn't belong on this list. Besides, I don't think he's better than anyone on that list, and he definitely has no high ceiling.

 

He's "smart," and he has good control, and he throws a good sinker, but with his fastball, he's going to have to prove some things at AAA and at the majors before he can be indignant that someone says he isn't a top prospect by any standard. I can't believe people are actually indignant because Jack Egbert isn't on this list.

Toolsy or not, the guy had one of the best seasons in all of minor league baseball. I'm not about to say he's a sure fire ace nor is he the organizations #1 prospect, however, he's definitely top 5 and he projects anywhere from a #3 guy to a #5 guy. At his best I think he could be a very good 3 (I should note that on many teams a very good 3 would actually be there #1 or #2 pitcher). I also think he's the type of guy that you can be pretty confident will at least be a serviceable 5th starter in the majors (but there is very little chance he'd ever be a legit #1 guy either). Basically he's what I'd grade as a relatively low risk prospect (in the sense that I fully believe he will have a major league career) with middle to good upside (ie middle of the rotation starter).

 

I don't see anything wrong with that and when you throw his stats into the mix as well as that sink ground ball rate and you'd have to consider him possible on that top 20 (than again I saw who didn't make that list, and there are at least a few guys that didn't make the list that I'd take over Egbert).

[Chisoxfn]

Phillips was often referred to as lazy and never put up anywhere near the periphs that Jack has.

Phillips was also repeating AAA for the umteenth time as well. Its not a knock on Heath either, but its just not comparing apples to apples. I also think at some point in time Heath will have a couple year run at the major league level (back of the pen lefty). It will not be with the Sox though.

[3E8]

Which is all the more encouraging if his velocity is as what's reported in this thread. How often do pitchers throwing below 90 miss bats at such a high rate and limit home runs without deception, specialty pitches or superb location? He obviously has something to his benefit which explains the success of these last two seasons. Pitching without fear isn't reason alone.

Egbert has good command of his curve ball and won't hesitate to throw it at any time. To go along with that, he has a plus change up. Yes his average fastball sits below 90, but it has movement at least. He's probably not raking up the Ks on that fastball. But with those two secondary pitches he can obviously keep minor league batters off-balanced enough to sit them down on strikes at over one per inning.

[RockRaines]

Egbert has good command of his curve ball and won't hesitate to throw it at any time. To go along with that, he has a plus change up. Yes his average fastball sits below 90, but it has movement at least. He's probably not raking up the Ks on that fastball. But with those two secondary pitches he can obviously keep minor league batters off-balanced enough to sit them down on strikes at over one per inning.

And once again BA doesnt project sinkerballers very well at all. Im sure they thought Webb didnt have the "stuff" to be more than a #5 at best in the majors.

[Calderon]

For the most part, aces don't sneak up on anyone. Rarely do you get a front-line starter that everyone says, "Where the hell did this guy come from?". Even a guy like Fausto Carmona, that the average fan looks at as a surprise, was dominant in the minors.

 

That said, look at these Double-A numbers, both for pitchers in their first year at that level, which I think is more important than age in some ways...

 

23 yrs old....26 starts....10-6....3.14 ERA....152.0 ip....141 h....4 hr....59 bb....122 k

24 yrs old....28 starts....12-8....3.06 ERA....161.2 ip....138 h....3 hr....44 bb....165 k

 

It's a totally unfair comparison to the second guy (Egbert), to put him in the same sentence as the first guy (Webb), but its interesting to look at where they were at similar points. The next year, Webb made 29 big-league starts and posted a 2.89 ERA. I don't have the park factor for Webb because El Paso is no longer in the Texas League, but we know Jack pitched in a pitcher's park. Maybe someone with more knowledge of El Paso can give some idea of how the park shapes the numbers.

 

I'm not surprised that Egbert isn't on the Southern League list with so many front-line "prospects" in the League this year. I can't imagine he is one of those players that you see once and say, "Wow", which is the case with most of the representatives on the list.

 

Just my $.02

[RockRaines]

For the most part, aces don't sneak up on anyone. Rarely do you get a front-line starter that everyone says, "Where the hell did this guy come from?". Even a guy like Fausto Carmona, that the average fan looks at as a surprise, was dominant in the minors.

Carmona never cracked the BA top 75. He did somewhat sneak up on them.

[Chisoxfn]

Carmona never cracked the BA top 75. He did somewhat sneak up on them.

That said, even after his dissapointing season I think most people familiar with baseball knew the guy had a lot of talent. He has an electric arm with amazing sink. I do think you are correct though, about BA undervaluing what a good sinkerball can do for a guy's career. The thing is it is probably much harder to discern how that sinkerball is going to work at the major league level (since you'll still need other pitches typically) where it is easier to see whether a guy has a plus curve, plus fastball, etc.

[fathom]

Egbert's on the 40 man. http://chicagosports.chicagotribune.com/sp...-home-headlines

Edited October 15, 2007 by fathom