Konerko Speculation

[Gregory Pratt]

I'm 99% sure it's limited no-trade protection and indications are that LA would be a team he'd go to, considering his family being relatively close-by and his past interest in going there.

[CWSGuy406]

is it funny to anyone else that Angels fans want to get rid of Kotchman, in fact keep calling for that deal of Kotchman, Figgins and Santana for Tex, they call him soft, and injury prone. Yet we act like this guy is complete gold.

 

Who exactly wants to get rid of Kotchman?

 

FWIW, the trio of Shields, Figgins and Kotchman out-VORP'ed Konerko and Garland by a rather large margin (77.2 to 52). Even if you don't believe in VORP, those numbers show who's getting the better end of the deal, and that doesn't even take into account the ~$50 million off the books.

 

As far as the Angel fans who want to get rid of Kotchman, let's hope that their GM is also in that camp. The more I think about a deal like this, the more I realize this deal would be a huge victory for the Sox -- arguably better than Kenny's swipe of Bartolo Colon.

[NorthSideSox72]

Who exactly wants to get rid of Kotchman?

 

FWIW, the trio of Shields, Figgins and Kotchman out-VORP'ed Konerko and Garland by a rather large margin (77.2 to 52). Even if you don't believe in VORP, those numbers show who's getting the better end of the deal, and that doesn't even take into account the ~$50 million off the books.

 

As far as the Angel fans who want to get rid of Kotchman, let's hope that their GM is also in that camp. The more I think about a deal like this, the more I realize this deal would be a huge victory for the Sox -- arguably better than Kenny's swipe of Bartolo Colon.

Yeah, having let this deal roll around a little while, I am now solidly in the camp that thinks it would be a very good deal for the Sox, if you take everything (including reduced payroll) into account.

 

[Rowand44]

Who exactly wants to get rid of Kotchman?

 

FWIW, the trio of Shields, Figgins and Kotchman out-VORP'ed Konerko and Garland by a rather large margin (77.2 to 52). Even if you don't believe in VORP, those numbers show who's getting the better end of the deal, and that doesn't even take into account the ~$50 million off the books.

 

As far as the Angel fans who want to get rid of Kotchman, let's hope that their GM is also in that camp. The more I think about a deal like this, the more I realize this deal would be a huge victory for the Sox -- arguably better than Kenny's swipe of Bartolo Colon.

Serious question, if this trade goes down do we keep Contreras? If not do we have 3 of our rotation members from the Danks, Floyd, Gio, Eggy camp? The more I think about trading Garland(and I am fine with dealing him, though I admit I've flip flopped on this issue many, many times), I think we need to get at least someone else who can step right into the rotation and be a league average starter. The fa market is just so bad sp wise that there just aren't many choices out there. My problem with this trade is it basically fills a hole and creates another at the same time, if we're trading Konerko or Garland then I think we need to fill at least 2 holes, not none. That's just me thinking out loud there, like I said before, this trade intrigues me but there needs to be more imo.

Edited October 10, 2007 by Rowand44

[Balta1701]

Serious question, if this trade goes down do we keep Contreras? If not do we have 3 of our rotation members from the Danks, Floyd, Gio, Eggy camp? The more I think about trading Garland(and I am fine with dealing him, though I admit I've flip flopped on this issue many, many times), I think we need to get at least someone else who can step right into the rotation and be a league average starter. The fa market is just so bad sp wise that there just aren't many choices out there. My problem with this trade is it basically fills a hole and creates another at the same time, if we're trading Konerko or Garland then I think we need to fill at least 2 holes, not none. That's just me thinking out loud there, like I said before, this trade intrigues me but there needs to be more imo.

The pitching issue you're mentioning is going to happen regardless. At least 2 guys from your list are going to be in the rotation next year, that I think we can count on. Too many guys who pitched too well. I still don't think Contreras is movable, so I think that's a moot point, but if he were to be...then either we try to pick up Garcia as a post surgery bargain or yes, we go with 3 of the kids and presumably figure that we're a better team because of the upgrades made elsewhere.

 

I feel like I would be very surprised not to see Floyd and Danks in our rotation next year. I think it looks like Buehrle, Vaz, Contreras, Danks, Floyd. But with Jose's salary, if we got something that made KW pull the trigger for him, I probably wouldn't complain about Haeger/Broadway/Gio/Eggy taking that last spot.

[CWSGuy406]

Serious question, if this trade goes down do we keep Contreras? If not do we have 3 of our rotation members from the Danks, Floyd, Gio, Eggy camp?

 

As Balta said, even if this trade didn't happen and we traded Garland somewhere else, we're going to have that issue of having too many 'unproven' guys at the rotation at once. I agree with you about bringing somebody in -- is Colon a free agent? I'd take a flyer on him in a big incentive laden two year deal. I know Freddy Garcia isn't going to be ready by April, but I wouldn't mind doing the same with him (or Prior if the Cubs cut ties with him).

 

And yes, I'd still be looking to deal Contreras to anyone who would take on the contract.

 

I completely understand the ramifications of trading both Contreras and Garland this winter -- it puts your 3-through-5 in absolute disarray. If you couldn't bring in a starter, I'd give Danks the third spot, let Gio/Haeger/Egbert/Floyd battle it out for the final two spots and hope that your bullpen -- which would have a pretty good base with Shields, Jenks, Wassermann and Logan -- could pick up the slack. And you'd have to hope that your lineup of (semi-realistic):

 

CF Figgins

SS Furcal

DH Thome

RF Dye

1B Kotchman

LF Fields

C Pierzynski

3B Crede

2B Richar

 

would get on-base and be in the top third in scoring runs in all of baseball.

[jackie hayes]

Serious question, if this trade goes down do we keep Contreras? If not do we have 3 of our rotation members from the Danks, Floyd, Gio, Eggy camp? The more I think about trading Garland(and I am fine with dealing him, though I admit I've flip flopped on this issue many, many times), I think we need to get at least someone else who can step right into the rotation and be a league average starter. The fa market is just so bad sp wise that there just aren't many choices out there. My problem with this trade is it basically fills a hole and creates another at the same time, if we're trading Konerko or Garland then I think we need to fill at least 2 holes, not none. That's just me thinking out loud there, like I said before, this trade intrigues me but there needs to be more imo.

I agree with Balta -- I don't think there's much that can be done about Contreras, except maybe prayer.

 

But along the line you brought up, you wonder if there's a 'Jason Jennings deal' out there for Garland. Since it WAS there for Garland last year, and Jennings was in his walk year, and Garland is no worse a pitcher than Jennings was. If you can pull off a similar deal for Garland (Hirsch + Buchholz combined give you that league-average pitcher) and swap Konerko separately, or keep him, are you better off than with this deal?

 

Are there any projections yet for Kotchman in 2008? I dunno -- not that home runs are the end-all, be-all of power, but you have to at least ask if a guy who's never hit home runs, not even in the minors, can maintain a consistently high slugging percentage. That's my serious question -- anyone know? Mark Grace had a nice slugging percentage in his second season, but it didn't hold up. Mauer wasn't the same threat this year.

 

Of course, an obp sniffing .400 would be pretty nice even if the slg takes a small hit...

[elrockinMT]

I like this deal. I think the Angels get the better end on the players, but assuming the money saved in the deal gets invested back in the team, this could really improve the Sox. It all depends on who they spend the extra money on. In that way, it reminds me of the Lee for Pods/Viz trade. The Brewers got the better player, and the Sox got the pieces for a ring. With KW, it would not shock me if this was the beginning of a chain of deals that ends up with ARod at short or 3rd. He does not think small. If you want more team speed, adding Figgins a parting ways with Konerko would be good start. I love Pauly and appreciate what Garland has done for the Sox. However, both have had some ugly slumps over the years.

 

 

The Angels get the better end of the deal, but we still do it? I hope not. Why the interest in trading our team captain? We seem only to willing to give up our best for questionable returns. Konerko will most likely rebound to a .300 35/100+ season supporting Thome. Last year was a blip in the road and not because of the offense. We need to look at the relief pitching and add one or two good arms there to set up Jenks. You trade Garland and Konerko for what? You open up more holes to fill. You don't trade to maintain the status quo you trade or sign free agents to improve. Contreras can be traded and you save $10M, but listen to the Sox management - money is not the issue. They will spend it.

Edited October 10, 2007 by elrockinMT

[kapkomet]

Well, from what I can infer (OPINOIN ALERT - NOT FACT), PK is the "captain" and can't stand any personalities that overshadow his. Frankly, if that's the case, if there are any big names coming this way, PK is going to have to go. It sounds weird, but if that's the case, a change up is needed.

 

[Harry Chappas]

Well, from what I can infer (OPINOIN ALERT - NOT FACT), PK is the "captain" and can't stand any personalities that overshadow his. Frankly, if that's the case, if there are any big names coming this way, PK is going to have to go. It sounds weird, but if that's the case, a change up is needed.

 

PK has no personality to overshadow. AJ dwarfs his personality and Thome is a better player as are Jenks and Buerhle.

[Balta1701]

Well, from what I can infer (OPINOIN ALERT - NOT FACT), PK is the "captain" and can't stand any personalities that overshadow his. Frankly, if that's the case, if there are any big names coming this way, PK is going to have to go. It sounds weird, but if that's the case, a change up is needed.

Thome and Buehrle don't overshadow him?

[Gregory Pratt]

It was stupid to make him, or anyone, "The Captain" and I'll be embarrassed if the White Sox trade the man they'd annointed "The Captain."

 

I don't think it'll really happen, though.

[hitlesswonder]

You have had a hard on for trading Bobby all year long. Did he kick your dog or something. This is the first time in a long time we have a good closer and the first thing you want to do is spin him for prospects. He is young, and he is cheap. And dont give me the well we could get a Borowski type guy, because those types won't play well at the Cell. Ask the rest of our pen how getting the ball up works in our park in the summer. To me you build your pen backwards from Bobby. You have a Loogy in Boone, Waserman looks like he will stick. This is your starting point. Fill the rest from there.

Sheesh. People were guessing what the Sox most valuable trade commodity was and I guessed Jenks, That's all that was. I didn't suggest trading him in that post. In previous posts (all year long?), when I did say it might be a good idea, I did so because it looks like the Sox might blow for several years here and Bobby won't be much use to a 72-win team. Plus the Sox have so many holes, if they could trade one good player for multiple good players the Sox would have to consider that. I have nothing against Jenks at all.

[YASNY]

I hear the Cardinals are targeting Garland. Any thoughts on what we could get in return from them?

[GoodAsGould]

I hear the Cardinals are targeting Garland. Any thoughts on what we could get in return from them?

 

They dont have really any trade chips at all, their farm system is worse than ours and I have no idea who is on their major league team that we would want... well besides Pujols obviously which they aint giving up lol.

[hitlesswonder]

I hear the Cardinals are targeting Garland. Any thoughts on what we could get in return from them?

 

They have a good catching prospect in Bryan Anderson. Other than that, their minor system isn't so hot, but Anderson plus one other decent prospect would be about the same thing that Garcia brought last season. I just don't know who else that prospect might be. Actually, Anderson & Reyes would be a lot like the Garcia trade: B prospect plus failed former top prospect/project. But I don't see Reyes as the kind of pitcher KW would target.

 

Where'd you hear this?

[3E8]

You're forgetting Rasmus, one of the best prospects in all of baseball

[YASNY]

They have a good catching prospect in Bryan Anderson. Other than that, their minor system isn't so hot, but Anderson plus one other decent prospect would be about the same thing that Garcia brought last season. I just don't know who else that prospect might be. Actually, Anderson & Reyes would be a lot like the Garcia trade: B prospect plus failed former top prospect/project. But I don't see Reyes as the kind of pitcher KW would target.

 

Where'd you hear this?

 

I honestly can't recall. I can say that it was a legit media source and not a message board rumor. In fact, I'm thinking it may have been one of the Trib's baseball writers.

[YASNY]

Here's the quote. Phil Rogers.

 

"Few teams are expected to pursue pitching more aggressively than St. Louis, which can't count on getting anything from the surgically repaired Chris Carpenter and Mark Mulder. Dontrelle Willis and Jon Garland are on the Cardinals' radar screen, and the jump in payroll could make them players if Minnesota puts Johan Santana on the market. …"

[jackie hayes]

They dont have really any trade chips at all, their farm system is worse than ours and I have no idea who is on their major league team that we would want... well besides Pujols obviously which they aint giving up lol.

In the minors, they have Colby Rasmus, Jaime Garcia, and Bryan Anderson. Figure Rasmus is offlimits, prolly not the other two.

 

They don't really have any relievers we'd want. They won't trade Wainwright, but you might get Reyes after his awful year.

 

Not much.

 

(All this is just me guessing -- I haven't read/heard anything lately.)

[DBAHO]

In the minors, they have Colby Rasmus, Jaime Garcia, and Bryan Anderson. Figure Rasmus is offlimits, prolly not the other two.

 

They don't really have any relievers we'd want. They won't trade Wainwright, but you might get Reyes after his awful year.

 

Not much.

 

(All this is just me guessing -- I haven't read/heard anything lately.)

If LaRussa and Dave Duncan leave St. Louis as well, they may target more "sure things" in terms of SP, instead of the high risk guys in Kip Wells, Mark Mulder, Brandon Looper etc.

 

I'd target at least 2 out of Reyes, Rasmus and Anderson in a trade for Garland, with Rasmus a must include.

 

Because teams like Seattle will probably offer you a lot of talent for JG this off-season, just remember the Jason Jennings deal for comparisons sake.

[YASNY]

If LaRussa and Dave Duncan leave St. Louis as well, they may target more "sure things" in terms of SP, instead of the high risk guys in Kip Wells, Mark Mulder, Brandon Looper etc.

 

I'd target at least 2 out of Reyes, Rasmus and Anderson in a trade for Garland, with Rasmus a must include.

 

Because teams like Seattle will probably offer you a lot of talent for JG this off-season, just remember the Jason Jennings deal for comparisons sake.

 

Good point re Seattle. They'll probably set the bar in any potential bidding on Garland.

[jackie hayes]

If LaRussa and Dave Duncan leave St. Louis as well, they may target more "sure things" in terms of SP, instead of the high risk guys in Kip Wells, Mark Mulder, Brandon Looper etc.

 

I'd target at least 2 out of Reyes, Rasmus and Anderson in a trade for Garland, with Rasmus a must include.

 

Because teams like Seattle will probably offer you a lot of talent for JG this off-season, just remember the Jason Jennings deal for comparisons sake.

It's fine to demand Rasmus, it just means no deal will get done. An elite of prospect on a team that still needs bats long-term (no matter what happens with Ankiel) for a league average pitcher in his walk year is going to be a deal breaker.

[DBAHO]

It's fine to demand Rasmus, it just means no deal will get done. An elite of prospect on a team that still needs bats long-term (no matter what happens with Ankiel) for a league average pitcher in his walk year is going to be a deal breaker.

I'd still call Garland better than league average. A bad month after the ASB really cost him a sub 4 ERA this season, and the guy pitches half his games in argubly the worst pitchers park in the MLB today.

 

Perhaps I'm aiming too high, but the Sox are dealing from a position of strength here, and we need to be targeting these type of impact prospects if we want to rebuild quickly into the future (I'm talking like Flash here). The Sox could always include a Ryan Sweeney for example, to give the Cards a possible replacement for Rasmus.

 

I'm not settling for Reyes and Anderson for Garland. I've rather head to the Dodgers and ask for Hu or Furcal in some sort of deal instead, or talk to Seattle and see if they would trade their stud OF prospect (Batemian I think his name, not Adam Jones).

[Vance Law]

Who exactly wants to get rid of Kotchman?

 

FWIW, the trio of Shields, Figgins and Kotchman out-VORP'ed Konerko and Garland by a rather large margin (77.2 to 52).

 

Yes, but you are comparing 3 players to 2 players. At very least you would need to include the VORP of the current Sox player being replaced by the extra player in the deal. Shields, Figgins, and Kotchman also out VORPed Manny Ramirez and Dustin Pedroia (70.5), but I doubt Boston is making that trade. You are also using just one year of data, and one that is TREMENDOUSLY skewed by Figgins having a career year with the bat (his 36.2 VORP this year outpaced his 14.2 from 2006) and Konerko having a down year (his 25.4 VORP is way down from his past 3 years of 38, 46, 47.7).

 

 

Who exactly wants to get rid of Kotchman?

 

Even if you don't believe in VORP, those numbers show who's getting the better end of the deal,

 

I disagree.