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Torii Hunter


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QUOTE(EvilJester99 @ Nov 8, 2007 -> 04:53 PM)
Espn 1000 said Torii Hunter confirmed he will meet with KW on Sunday....

If the price to bring in Hunter includes the big money, the long years and either Jerry Owens or Danny Richar leading off, it really will be a waste of money.

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QUOTE(Wanne @ Nov 8, 2007 -> 02:25 PM)
I'd rather have Richar at 2nd and leading off than have Owens as an everyday player.

Whether some folks here like it or not, JO did actually put up numbers during his 2nd stint at the big league level and during his time in the minors last year that suggest he wouldn't be the worst option in the world as a leadoff hitter. Post All Star Break, which is for all intents and purposes his 2nd call-up (there were a couple games beforehand), he hit .278 and put up a .340 OBP, and was 27/33 in stolen bases (82%). It is also worth noting perhaps that his walks/PA trended up, and approached 1 walk per 10 at bats for the latter 2 months.

 

If, for a moment, we do not care about the slugging...if all we care about is whether or not we'll have a guy on base who can score when the boppers come up...right now there is no better option on our roster. And given that a .340 OBP is right around average for major league leadoff hitters, it may well be that there are few better options available and even fewer available at a price and quality of defense that would interest us. Richar's OBP's last year by month for Aug & September are .290 and .294. While I expect those to improve as his work with the bat improves, it is worth noting that with the exception of his 1 year in AA, he has never had a BB/PA matching what Owens gave us in the big leagues last year (including his time at Charlotte), nor has he been nearly as consistent at taking walks and getting on base as Owens has at any level. In terms of getting on base, he may well find himself, even fairly soon, being an ideal number 2 hitter, as he does get on base somewhat, but in terms of patience at the plate he has not in his career been at Owens's level and his OBP is entirely going to be vastly more determined by his ability to get base hits than for JO.

 

Furthermore, one of the Knocks on Danny has always been he's streaky. We saw some of this in September, where he was putting up an OPS of over 1000 or so for like 2 weeks, then finished the month with a .752. While these are good numbers for a rookie, making the minimum, and at 2nd base...I really don't think streakiness is a quality we want defining a top of the order hitter. It might work in the #2 spot, because he could spend time when he's not getting base hits moving runners over and the pre-Thome fastballs might help him out of slumps quicker, but that is another issue worth considering.

 

If we went solely on potential alone, right now on our roster you put Owens leading off and you basically have your choice of Uribe, Richar, Fields, and Pierzynski hitting 2nd, with Richar having the best chance but it all depending on his development. Both of them can provide OBP, both of them can provide hits, both have the ability to score from first on doubles, and both can steal bases to get themselves in scoring position and force people to give Jim fastballs. And IF these guys put up numbers like they're capable of doing, then we actually have a fairly solid top of the order already. But if either of them struggle or take longer to develop in their 2nd year, then we have a big problem.

Edited by Balta1701
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QUOTE(Steve9347 @ Nov 8, 2007 -> 04:41 PM)
Scott Podsednik.

 

Yup. It'll happen.

 

Sox should sign Luis Catillo for 2B and leadoff. Would come relatively cheap. Richar is not guaranteed the job, so sign Castillo. Plays havoc on the basebaths, gets on a lot, and plays a decent second base. Suprised no one is talking about him.

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QUOTE(Balta1701 @ Nov 8, 2007 -> 06:05 PM)
Whether some folks here like it or not, JO did actually put up numbers during his 2nd stint at the big league level and during his time in the minors last year that suggest he wouldn't be the worst option in the world as a leadoff hitter. Post All Star Break, which is for all intents and purposes his 2nd call-up (there were a couple games beforehand), he hit .278 and put up a .340 OBP, and was 27/33 in stolen bases (82%). It is also worth noting perhaps that his walks/PA trended up, and approached 1 walk per 10 at bats for the latter 2 months.

 

If, for a moment, we do not care about the slugging...if all we care about is whether or not we'll have a guy on base who can score when the boppers come up...right now there is no better option on our roster. And given that a .340 OBP is right around average for major league leadoff hitters, it may well be that there are few better options available and even fewer available at a price and quality of defense that would interest us. Richar's OBP's last year by month for Aug & September are .290 and .294. While I expect those to improve as his work with the bat improves, it is worth noting that with the exception of his 1 year in AA, he has never had a BB/PA matching what Owens gave us in the big leagues last year (including his time at Charlotte), nor has he been nearly as consistent at taking walks and getting on base as Owens has at any level. In terms of getting on base, he may well find himself, even fairly soon, being an ideal number 2 hitter, as he does get on base somewhat, but in terms of patience at the plate he has not in his career been at Owens's level and his OBP is entirely going to be vastly more determined by his ability to get base hits than for JO.

 

Furthermore, one of the Knocks on Danny has always been he's streaky. We saw some of this in September, where he was putting up an OPS of over 1000 or so for like 2 weeks, then finished the month with a .752. While these are good numbers for a rookie, making the minimum, and at 2nd base...I really don't think streakiness is a quality we want defining a top of the order hitter. It might work in the #2 spot, because he could spend time when he's not getting base hits moving runners over and the pre-Thome fastballs might help him out of slumps quicker, but that is another issue worth considering.

 

If we went solely on potential alone, right now on our roster you put Owens leading off and you basically have your choice of Uribe, Richar, Fields, and Pierzynski hitting 2nd, with Richar having the best chance but it all depending on his development. Both of them can provide OBP, both of them can provide hits, both have the ability to score from first on doubles, and both can steal bases to get themselves in scoring position and force people to give Jim fastballs. And IF these guys put up numbers like they're capable of doing, then we actually have a fairly solid top of the order already. But if either of them struggle or take longer to develop in their 2nd year, then we have a big problem.

 

Nice assessment Balta. But going on your last sentence...you mention BOTH of them...but does that mean having both in the lineup? I really don't think that can happen. It's going to have to be one or the other. Lot's of variables...but in my mind (which isn't saying much)...you go with Richar in your lineup at 2nd instead of Owens in the OF. If Owens is there it means that: Kenny didn't get Hunter or Rowand (or do the PK trade for Figgins and Kotch). Credes's not healthy and Fields isn't in LF. I don't like that scenerio.

 

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Ahh I love it. More projecting from two months worth of stats. Fannnnn-tastic.

 

Let's note that Jerry Owens' September BAPIP was .407(!). And for the best month that Jerry might ever have in his big league career, his OBP didn't even top .400 and his slugging percentage didn't even touch .375. Oh but right, it's not fair for me to cite slugging percentage because the (whack ass) reasoning that slugging percentage doesn't matter for a leadoff man.

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QUOTE(Cleats67 @ Nov 8, 2007 -> 05:28 PM)
Sox should sign Luis Catillo for 2B and leadoff. Would come relatively cheap. Richar is not guaranteed the job, so sign Castillo. Plays havoc on the basebaths, gets on a lot, and plays a decent second base. Suprised no one is talking about him.

Hm. I have to admit, I hadn't considered him. He does seem to make sense for what the team is looking for, and would probably be affordable. I wonder why he hasn't been mentioned.

 

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QUOTE(Cleats67 @ Nov 8, 2007 -> 05:28 PM)
Sox should sign Luis Catillo for 2B and leadoff. Would come relatively cheap. Richar is not guaranteed the job, so sign Castillo. Plays havoc on the basebaths, gets on a lot, and plays a decent second base. Suprised no one is talking about him.

Omar Minaya has pretty much vowed to re-sign him and from the sound of it Castillo likes the idea of staying with the Mets.

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QUOTE(Kalapse @ Nov 8, 2007 -> 06:34 PM)
Omar Minaya has pretty much vowed to re-sign him and from the sound of it Castillo likes the idea of staying with the Mets.

Maybe, but he has a strong relationship with Ozzie from their time at the Marlins, and is his prototype player, so I wouldn't be surprised it this happens. Kenny may very well suprise everyone with this one, but it makes total sense.

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QUOTE(CWSGuy406 @ Nov 8, 2007 -> 05:30 PM)
Ahh I love it. More projecting from two months worth of stats. Fannnnn-tastic.

 

Let's note that Jerry Owens' September BAPIP was .407(!). And for the best month that Jerry might ever have in his big league career, his OBP didn't even top .400 and his slugging percentage didn't even touch .375. Oh but right, it's not fair for me to cite slugging percentage because the (whack ass) reasoning that slugging percentage doesn't matter for a leadoff man.

2007 Twins Luis Castillo might just be Jerry Owens' ceiling (+50 SB or so and minus a few AVG points.)

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i think people underestimate richar a bit ....anyone realize that he had 19 HR between the bigs and AAA last year?....thats more than brian anderson and ryan sweeney have had at that level of baseball and he is still only 24....plays a decent 2b, will be able to run a bit...the biggest question i will have with him will be his ability to get on base, and from what i saw of him he at least wont give away as many ABs as a guy like uribe

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I like the way Richar swings-he has power potential, and speed. Here's a What if....................

 

What if we do come across a second base/lead off either by Free agent or trade.

 

Does anyone think Richar could play LF?

Edited by klaus kinski
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QUOTE(klaus kinski @ Nov 8, 2007 -> 06:05 PM)
I like the way Richar swings-he has power potential, and speed. Here's a What if....................

 

What if we do come across a second base/lead off either by Free agent or trade.

 

Does anyone think Richar could play LF?

 

He's definitely athletic enough to make the switch, but I don't think it's necessary. It's not like we HAVE to get his bat in the lineup. Plus our minor league IF depth, is not great. I guess it depends on how many years that FA 2B is signed for.

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QUOTE(sircaffey @ Nov 8, 2007 -> 07:08 PM)
He's definitely athletic enough to make the switch, but I don't think it's necessary. It's not like we HAVE to get his bat in the lineup. Plus our minor league IF depth, is not great. I guess it depends on how many years that FA 2B is signed for.

agreed...guys who can hit .280 with 15-20 HR and play LF are easy to find....2b not so much

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QUOTE(Reddy @ Nov 8, 2007 -> 07:06 PM)
Hunter Article on whitesox.com

 

looks like we REALLY have the inside track... seems he wants to play here over anywhere else...

 

i'm expecting him to go to us at this point.

"I'm going to kick back and think back about it. Whatever team I end up with, I think I'm going to end my career there."

 

Does this mean he's expecting a full no trade clause? If so, he's probably not getting one from the Sox.

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QUOTE(daa84 @ Nov 8, 2007 -> 11:58 PM)
i think people underestimate richar a bit ....anyone realize that he had 19 HR between the bigs and AAA last year?....thats more than brian anderson and ryan sweeney have had at that level of baseball and he is still only 24....plays a decent 2b, will be able to run a bit...the biggest question i will have with him will be his ability to get on base, and from what i saw of him he at least wont give away as many ABs as a guy like uribe

 

The team didn't trade Aaron Cunningham for a guy they view as a part-time player. I think they're going to give the ropes (more or less) fully to Richar and hope he becomes an average (or better, if he's as good as his combined numbers of last season) player.

 

FWIW, Bill James' handbook has Richar pegged for something like a .270/.330/.440 line next season which would be absolutely wonderful. I'll be interested in seeing what if PECOTA and ZiPS have him around that .775 OPS mark because if they do, I don't see any reason to do anything but let Richar take most of the at-bats there next season.

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QUOTE(CWSGuy406 @ Nov 8, 2007 -> 04:56 PM)
The team didn't trade Aaron Cunningham for a guy they view as a part-time player. I think they're going to give the ropes (more or less) fully to Richar and hope he becomes an average (or better, if he's as good as his combined numbers of last season) player.

 

FWIW, Bill James' handbook has Richar pegged for something like a .270/.330/.440 line next season which would be absolutely wonderful. I'll be interested in seeing what if PECOTA and ZiPS have him around that .775 OPS mark because if they do, I don't see any reason to do anything but let Richar take most of the at-bats there next season.

Richar actually developed faster than I though the would when he hit the big leagues. He still showed a lot of the streakiness he was infamous for, but it didn't take him that long to get really, really, really freaking hot. He's been incredibly raw at every level he stopped at, just because he hadn't played much ball at all when the D-Backs signed him, which is why he floated around in their lower minor leagues for a couple years. When he came up with us, he was a disaster for one month overall, but at least showed some patience at the plate, and then at the start of September he was on fire with the bat for 2 weeks, which I didn't think he'd be able to do even if it was in September, just because he was against another level of pitching.

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