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Pedroia, Braun ROY's.


Balta1701

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Not exactly surprising on any of the choices. NL was close.

Ryan Braun won the NL Rookie of the Year award in one of the closest votes, while Dustin Pedroia ran away with the AL honor Monday.

 

Braun, Milwaukee's slugging third baseman, edged Colorado shortstop Troy Tulowitzki by two points in balloting by the Baseball Writers' Association of America.

 

Pedroia, the little Boston second baseman with the big swing, easily topped Tampa Bay outfielder Delmon Young. Voting was done before Pedroia helped lead the Red Sox to the World Series title.

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QUOTE(WhiteSoxfan1986 @ Nov 12, 2007 -> 06:58 PM)
Look at how he fared away from Coors and you'll change your mind.

241 point difference between home and away, another blatant case of Coors inflation. THAT .393 ROAD SLUGGING PERCENTAGE IS DAMN SEXY!!

 

He's going to be a pretty damn good major league SS (~.800 OPS guy) but as long as he plays half of his games at Coors Field he will be an overrated offensive player.

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Neyer on the 2 NL guys.

So that's what did happen. But what should have happened? I've known people to become truly exorcised over this question. Braun's got the highest slugging percentage for a rookie, ever, they'll shout. Nothing else matters.

 

Nothing else? What if he'd made 100 errors? Would that matter?

 

He didn't make 100 errors. He made 26 in 112 games. His .895 fielding percentage is the second worst -- among third basemen with at least 100 games -- since 1910. Doesn't that matter, some? I think it's worth checking.

 

The Win Shares method considers defensive value. Tulowitzki finished with 25 Win Shares; Braun finished with 22. Baseball Prospecutus's Wins Above Replacement Player (WARP) also considers defense. Tulowitzki finished with 8.5 WARP; Braun with 3.9.

 

The massive difference in WARP is, of course, because of the massive (measured) difference in defensive value. WARP credits Tulowitzki with 49 Fielding Runs Above Replacement, while Braun is debited with minus-15 FRAR. That's essentially a six- or seven-win difference (10 runs = 1 win), which simply isn't balanced by Braun's superior hitting.

 

I happen to think there might be a park effect that makes Tulowitzki look a bit better with the glove than he is. He had my Gold Glove vote, though. And when you've got two reputable methods that say Tulowitzki was the most valuable rookie, it's hard to argue that he did not deserve to win.

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