Andruw Jones Speculation

[bigruss]

#7

 

Andruw Jones

 

POSITION: Center Field

AGE: 30 | BATS: R | THROWS: R

2007 TEAM: Atlanta Braves

STATUS: Unsigned -- Type B free agent

 

2007 SEASON STATISTICS

GM 154

 

R 83

 

HR 26

 

RBI 94

 

AVG .222

 

OBP .311

 

SLG .413

 

Once upon a time, Jones was the best defensive center fielder in the game, and one of the best who ever played, eliciting comparisons to Willie Mays at his peak. Now, he's a good defensive center fielder who hits for power and shows some patience, but he has an approach at the plate that has gone backward over the last few years. He's hit more than .280 just once in his career, in his apparent breakout year of 2000, but he's settled into a pattern of trying to crush the ball every time up to the plate, leading to some long swings and a frustrating number of double plays for a guy who still has average running speed.

 

It might make some sense for Jones to sign a one-year deal somewhere and hit the market again next winter, since he's almost a lock to bounce at least partway back from his 2007 debacle at the plate. The 2008 center-field class isn't as strong as this winter's, with Torii Hunter, Mike Cameron and Aaron Rowand all out there this offseason. If Jones and agent Scott Boras want the larger payday now, look for them to emphasize Jones' relative youth as an argument that he deserves five or more years. There's an upside play here, but gambling on upside usually means signing the player to a short-term deal.

 

So if the Sox could get him on a one year deal would you do it? Maybe 1 year $16-17 mill? Keeps options open at end of the year, plus we may get draft picks for him if he has a good year and the free agent class is weak. Thoughts?

 

[klaus kinski]

Then we gotta go thru this again next year-with that lesser class.

[Dick Allen]

Boras is Andrew Jones' agent.

[Harry Chappas]

Sign Jones and Rowand and hope one of Sweeney/Anderson/Owens proves they are ready the following year.......

[sircaffey]

Boras is Andrew Jones' agent.

 

That shouldn't be an issue for a one year contract.

[YASNY]

but he's settled into a pattern of trying to crush the ball every time up to the plate

We already have Juan Uribe.

[southsider2k5]

The only way Jones would sign a one year contract is if it were for some outrageous amount of money, I talking at least 20 million dollars. Other than that he will get at least 5 years. It is the way that Borass operates. Check out the history of his clients.

[Gene Honda Civic]

The only way Jones would sign a one year contract is if it were for some outrageous amount of money, I talking at least 20 million dollars. Other than that he will get at least 5 years. It is the way that Borass operates. Check out the history of his clients.

Furcal took a 3-year deal to hit the market again quickly.

Drew took a 5-year deal with an opt out to hit the market again quickly.

 

more comparable... Kevin Millwood, looking for a per annum contract in the low teens when in Philly, had a poor season. Signed with Cleveland for a year at a discounted rate. Then got his 5/$60M the next season from the Rangers.

[sircaffey]

Furcal took a 3-year deal to hit the market again quickly.

Drew took a 5-year deal with an opt out to hit the market again quickly.

 

more comparable... Kevin Millwood, looking for a per annum contract in the low teens when in Philly, had a poor season. Signed with Cleveland for a year at a discounted rate. Then got his 5/$60M the next season from the Rangers.

 

Furcal did that so he could get to the prime age to cash in on a long-term contract, age 31. Age 31 is the perfect time to maximize your earnings. You'll be in your declining years for half the contract while still getting paid like you are in your prime years. If Furcal would have hit the free agent market at age 34, he would get far less of a contract. If he would have taken a 5-6 year deal instead of the 3 year deal, he'd be getting paid for his prime years for that amount of time. Now, by taking the 3 year contract, he will get paid like he is in his prime years for those 3 years plus his next contract of 5-6 year for a total of 8-9 years instead of the 5-6. It was a wise move by Furcal to take the 3 year deal originally. Andruw Jones, not coincidentally, will be 31 at the beginning of the 2008 season, and thus, is very unlikely to sign a 1 year deal, IMO.

 

Anyone want to guess how old Kevin Millwood was when he signed his contract with Texas? 31.

Edited November 13, 2007 by sircaffey

[Gene Honda Civic]

Furcal did that so he could get to the prime age to cash in on a long-term contract, age 31. Age 31 is the perfect time to maximize your earnings. You'll be in your declining years for half the contract while still getting paid like you are in your prime years. If Furcal would have hit the free agent market at age 34, he would get far less of a contract. If he would have taken a 5-6 year deal, he'd be getting paid for his prime years for that amount of time. Now, by taking the 3 year contract, he will get paid like he is in his prime years for those 3 years plus his next contract of 5-6 year for a total of 8-9 years instead of the 5-6. It was a wise move by Furcal to take the 3 year deal originally. Andruw Jones, not coincidentally, will be 31 at the beginning of the 2008 season, and thus, is very unlikely to sign a 1 year deal, IMO.

A couple of notes...

 

The Cubs were willing to give Furcal 5 years.

 

Furcal will reach FA again next year at age 31, at which point you have him getting a 5-6 year contract.

 

Unless you can provide data which indicates that 32 year olds receive deals in excess of a year shorter (and for less money) than their 31 year old counterparts, you're just shaping the argument to meet your preconceived conclusion.

[sircaffey]

A couple of notes...

 

The Cubs were willing to give Furcal 5 years.

 

Furcal will reach FA again next year at age 31, at which point you have him getting a 5-6 year contract.

 

Unless you can provide data which indicates that 32 year olds receive deals in excess of a year shorter (and for less money) than their 31 year old counterparts, you're just shaping the argument to meet your preconceived conclusion.

 

Exactly, and Furcal took the 3 year deal instead of the 5 year deal? Why? So he could cash in on another 5-6 year deal. Why not take the Cubs 5 year offer, if you knew you'd get another 5 year deal at age 33? Because he knew he probably couldn't get a 5+ year deal at age 33.

 

Andruw Jones' situation is certainly not the norm. He is at the prime age at where players, historically, like to cash in on, but he's coming off his worst year. He could take a one year deal, certainly. He could. But he then takes the risk of following up with another horrible season, and proving he's not the player he was. Or he could take the 5-6 year deal worth $16 mil+ per, and be happy. If he takes a one year deal, he not only risks not getting a 5+ year deal next season, but he's risking getting less than the $16 mil per. I think he's going to cash in now, and be done with it. It's the smart investment move.

Edited November 13, 2007 by sircaffey

[Gene Honda Civic]

He could take a one year deal, certainly. He could. But he then takes the risk of following up with another horrible season, and proving he's not the player he was. Or he could take the 5-6 year deal worth $16 mil+ per, and be happy. If he takes a one year deal, he not only risks not getting a 5+ year deal next season, but he's risking getting less than the $16 mil per. I think he's going to cash in now, and be done with it. It's the smart investment move.

It has nothing to do with smarts. We're talking about athletes here.

 

Athletes, especially, potential HOF athletes like Jones, have an incredible amount of faith in their ability. I guarantee that Jones thinks his 2007 season was just a speedbump on his road to the HOF. He believes he'll be back hitting 40+ HR next season and for the foreseeable future.

 

Boras clients are after one thing. $$$ and the most they can get. They'll pass on deals that buy out their FA years while still arb eligbile. They'll forego the guaranteed money now for the promise of future riches later...

 

Another Boras client, Jeff Weaver, is an example of what can go wrong when the athlete is unable to hold up his end of the deal. He's signed 1-year deals in each of the last two seasons. He was looking for a 5-year deal two seasons ago. And at least a 3-year deal last off-season. To his, and Boras' surprise, there wasn't much market for a below-average innings eater.... Now he's on the outside looking in.

 

If Boras and Jones don't get the offer they're looking for, in both in years and overall $$$ amount, they'll find away to get him back on the market as quickly as possible. It's their MO.

[witesoxfan]

Why do people think Jones is going to get a 1 year deal? This is the same agent that got Magglio Ordonez a 5 year, $75 mill deal with escalator clauses to bring it up to a 7 year, $105 mill deal when Magglio's career was in jeopardy.

 

I don't foresee Andruw Jones getting a 1 year deal, but perhaps that's just me.

[sircaffey]

It has nothing to do with smarts. We're talking about athletes here.

 

Athletes, especially, potential HOF athletes like Jones, have an incredible amount of faith in their ability. I guarantee that Jones thinks his 2007 season was just a speedbump on his road to the HOF. He believes he'll be back hitting 40+ HR next season and for the foreseeable future.

 

Boras clients are after one thing. $$$ and the most they can get. They'll pass on deals that buy out their FA years while still arb eligbile. They'll forego the guaranteed money now for the promise of future riches later...

 

Another Boras client, Jeff Weaver, is an example of what can go wrong when the athlete is unable to hold up his end of the deal. He's signed 1-year deals in each of the last two seasons. He was looking for a 5-year deal two seasons ago. And at least a 3-year deal last off-season. To his, and Boras' surprise, there wasn't much market for a below-average innings eater.... Now he's on the outside looking in.

 

If Boras and Jones don't get the offer they're looking for, in both in years and overall $$$ amount, they'll find away to get him back on the market as quickly as possible. It's their MO.

 

Andruw already had a contract year. It happened to be his worst year of his career. Why would he want to go through that again next season? He obviously was effected by it.

[Gene Honda Civic]

Andruw already had a contract year. It happened to be his worst year of his career. Why would he want to go through that again next season? He obviously was effected by it.

So you believe a player performance is directly related to a players contract status? There's no arguing with that logic.

[Gene Honda Civic]

Why do people think Jones is going to get a 1 year deal? This is the same agent that got Magglio Ordonez a 5 year, $75 mill deal with escalator clauses to bring it up to a 7 year, $105 mill deal when Magglio's career was in jeopardy.

 

I don't foresee Andruw Jones getting a 1 year deal, but perhaps that's just me.

I don't believe he will get a 1-year deal. His first 10 years are that of a HOFer. He's clearly worth a multiple year commitment. He's earned more than that.

 

However, his poor season has caused his stock to slip such that, in a recent informal survey, 14 of 15 GMs said they'd prefer Torii Hunter.

 

He can sign a long term deal at $.75 on the dollar compared to what he would have gotten at this point last year, or he can take a 1-year deal, believing he will rebound, in an attempt to cash in at $1.10 on the dollar compared to what he would have gotten last year.

 

There's a chance that Boras will find a single team willing to see that one poor season does not a career make, and all it takes is 1. But without multiple big bidders he's not going to get near what he would have a year ago, making a 1-year year deal an attractive opportunity for both sides.

 

It's a possibility that can't be outright ignored based on Boras' reputation. I cited Millwood (on the good) and Weaver (on the bad) as two recent Boras clients who went that route. I believe there's a good chance that Jones will join them.

[sircaffey]

So you believe a player performance is directly related to a players contract status? There's no arguing with that logic.

 

I'm not basing it directly, but I think you have to consider it a possibility. From things I've read, a lot of people had the opinion that Andruw was pressing a lot. He fell off the table pretty damn fast without any direct effect from an injury.

[witesoxfan]

I don't believe he will get a 1-year deal. His first 10 years are that of a HOFer. He's clearly worth a multiple year commitment. He's earned more than that.

 

However, his poor season has caused his stock to slip such that, in a recent informal survey, 14 of 15 GMs said they'd prefer Torii Hunter.

 

He can sign a long term deal at $.75 on the dollar compared to what he would have gotten at this point last year, or he can take a 1-year deal, believing he will rebound, in an attempt to cash in at $1.10 on the dollar compared to what he would have gotten last year.

 

There's a chance that Boras will find a single team willing to see that one poor season does not a career make, and all it takes is 1. But without multiple big bidders he's not going to get near what he would have a year ago, making a 1-year year deal an attractive opportunity for both sides.

 

It's a possibility that can't be outright ignored based on Boras' reputation. I cited Millwood (on the good) and Weaver (on the bad) as two recent Boras clients who went that route. I believe there's a good chance that Jones will join them.

 

You are bringing up really good stuff here; I just would be shocked at a 1-year deal. Currently, I think what may happen is that Jones will sign a JD Drew type deal, allowing him to opt out of it after 2 years if he starts playing better and the market stays the same/improves, thus allowing him to once again earn more money. If this past year somehow becomes the trend rather than the outlier, then he's making more money than he could get on the open market anyways.

 

I agree there will be some type of short-term commitment, I'm just not sure it will be 1 year.

[Chisoxfn]

The only way Jones would sign a one year contract is if it were for some outrageous amount of money, I talking at least 20 million dollars. Other than that he will get at least 5 years. It is the way that Borass operates. Check out the history of his clients.

Boras has had more than a few clients who opted for the one year deal and than went back out on the market looking for a long term deal the following years. It can work well, especially if Jones feels that he will be able to rebound (obviously it is a gamble though).

[Balta1701]

Boras has had more than a few clients who opted for the one year deal and than went back out on the market looking for a long term deal the following years. It can work well, especially if Jones feels that he will be able to rebound (obviously it is a gamble though).

Boras only really seems to use that option on guys like Weaver though, who there seems to be really no market for at all. Millwood being the potential exception.

 

I think the J.D. Drew style opt-out after 2 years deal might be where Boras tries to go with this one.

[jackie hayes]

Boras only really seems to use that option on guys like Weaver though, who there seems to be really no market for at all. Millwood being the potential exception.

 

I think the J.D. Drew style opt-out after 2 years deal might be where Boras tries to go with this one.

Otoh, age is a big deal. Drew opted out after his age 30 year, ARod after his age 31 year (and, well, he's Alex Rodriguez), Millwood took the one-year deal for his age 30 year. Andruw is going into his age 31 year. How much difference does that one year make to teams? (Honest question -- it seems the clock ticks faster and faster after 30, so it could make a real difference. But I'm not sure. Ichiro got the huge extension for his age 34 year, but that is something of a special case. And I expect that Andruw's looking for even more than that.) And when you're looking for that one exclamation point season in the year before free agency, wouldn't you rather bet on the player who's a year younger?

 

I see what you're saying, and they both seem plausible to me, but I think the 1-year deal just makes more sense.

 

And I wouldn't mind seeing the Sox sign him in either case.

[sircaffey]

I wouldn't mind signing Jones to a one year deal. At worst, we end up with a couple of draft picks. If this organization could draft well, I may like it even more. At best, we hold one of the bigger offensive trading chips at the deadline. Basically by signing Jones to a one year deal, we are paying to replenish our pathetic farm system, and taking a lukewarm shot at competing this season. I'd rather sign Jones to a one year deal than sign Hunter to a 5 year deal, personally. Signing Jones to a one year deal may not solve our CF problem long-term, but it may help solve another problem long-term (deadline trade; draft). Meanwhile, still having the $15 million that we would have given Hunter, to play around with in a much deeper free agent class in 2008. I think for the direction this team seems to be headed in the next 2-3 years, it's wiser to sign Jones to a one year deal. The big issue being whether or not Jones is willing to sign a one year deal.

Edited November 14, 2007 by sircaffey

[rockren]

Why do people think Jones is going to get a 1 year deal? This is the same agent that got Magglio Ordonez a 5 year, $75 mill deal with escalator clauses to bring it up to a 7 year, $105 mill deal when Magglio's career was in jeopardy.

 

I don't foresee Andruw Jones getting a 1 year deal, but perhaps that's just me.

 

It's not just you- If Druw Jones' camp best offer was a 5 yr/65, at the end of the day they'd take it.

 

Jones will get at least that. This isn't Jeff Weaver we're talking about here.

[Gene Honda Civic]

http://www.nysun.com/article/66434

A team could likely sign him to either a one-year make-good contract, in which they’d most likely be getting performance comparable to Beltran’s for two-thirds the salary; or a longer deal that would lock him in for several years at a price somewhat lower than that while avoiding the dangerous years past 35, when aging players are most likely to just fall off a cliff. Why? Because Jones performed badly on a fluke, because he has a bad reputation, and because there is a glut of superficially similar but lesser players such as Aaron Rowand, Torii Hunter, and Mike Cameron on the market. It’s a perfect confluence that obscures his worth.

[elrockinMT]

The only way Jones would sign a one year contract is if it were for some outrageous amount of money, I talking at least 20 million dollars. Other than that he will get at least 5 years. It is the way that Borass operates. Check out the history of his clients.

 

 

Plus why woud you want to give a .222 hitter 16-17 million for a year. That kind of money should sign Hunter or Rowand and they have a real good upside too