Kenny not worried about Danks & Floyd as #4 & 5

[Gregory Pratt]

Already building in your excuse in case he succeeds, I see.

 

It's pretty hard to hit heat in the cold; if April this year is like last's, it'll certainly make sense that Floyd would be able to succeed for a little but then again, Gavin doesn't throw all that hard so it might not help that much. But yes, if Floyd is starting in really cold weather, I don't expect him to fall all the way apart; instead, I expect it to happen once it heats up.

 

I guess I'm just making up the "cold"/hitter's situation or something.

[NorthSideSox72]

All three of those back end guys make me nervous. As people are saying, chances are, 1 or 2 of them will flop. Also though, chances are, 1 of them will probably do quite well. Then there is the outside chance that all 3 flop, or all 3 succeed, but neither of those scenarios is likely.

 

So since everyone is discussing who will do badly... anyone want to guess who is most likely of those three to have a good season?

 

[max power]

Either they perform reasonably well or they don't. They are all question marks to some degree, even vazquez and buehrle. They all have some talent. We shall see.

[Balta1701]

It's pretty hard to hit heat in the cold; if April this year is like last's, it'll certainly make sense that Floyd would be able to succeed for a little but then again, Gavin doesn't throw all that hard so it might not help that much. But yes, if Floyd is starting in really cold weather, I don't expect him to fall all the way apart; instead, I expect it to happen once it heats up.

 

I guess I'm just making up the "cold"/hitter's situation or something.

If that were the case, and you were completely right, that Gavin would start hot this year entirely due to the weather...then the best thing to do to help the team out would be to plan for this hot start, and plan to move him sometime in early/mid may after he's come out, won 5 games in a row or so, and rebuilt some significant trade value for a team looking for young arms.

[Gregory Pratt]

If that were the case, and you were completely right, that Gavin would start hot this year entirely due to the weather...then the best thing to do to help the team out would be to plan for this hot start, and plan to move him sometime in early/mid may after he's come out, won 5 games in a row or so, and rebuilt some significant trade value for a team looking for young arms.

 

I didn't say he would; I said it's more likely than not that pitchers would have more success in Chicago in the cold but I add the caveat that if Gavin's curveball sucks and has no control, as it frequently does, and he's still losing 5 MPH whenever he goes into the stretch it won't matter if he's playing against polar bears on melting ice caps.

[Balta1701]

So since everyone is discussing who will do badly... anyone want to guess who is most likely of those three to have a good season?

Pratt's going to jump on me for it, but I actually think that it's Floyd. He has a pitcher's frame, which should let him throw a lot of innings without tiring, he's 25 so he's approaching the age where he will hit whatever his peak actually is, and he may finally have built some confidence at the end of the last year.

 

Honestly, despite what that logic tells me, I'm hoping that it winds up being Contreras...because if Jose could have a good 1st half, that would be the best thing for the team in the long run, as that would help rebuild Jose's shattered trade value and maybe make his contract moveable at the deadline.

[The Ginger Kid]

All three of those back end guys make me nervous. As people are saying, chances are, 1 or 2 of them will flop. Also though, chances are, 1 of them will probably do quite well. Then there is the outside chance that all 3 flop, or all 3 succeed, but neither of those scenarios is likely.

 

So since everyone is discussing who will do badly... anyone want to guess who is most likely of those three to have a good season?

 

I say Danks. I agree that he had trouble getting the third out many times and that he's probably learned to pitch to contact. He'll have a better infield behind him this year, too. I keep thinking about what Hunter said about him last year, that this kid is going to be nasty.

[max power]

All three of those back end guys make me nervous. As people are saying, chances are, 1 or 2 of them will flop. Also though, chances are, 1 of them will probably do quite well. Then there is the outside chance that all 3 flop, or all 3 succeed, but neither of those scenarios is likely.

 

So since everyone is discussing who will do badly... anyone want to guess who is most likely of those three to have a good season?

I think its floyd, sadly. Danks will be over pitched, I have no faith in him pitching well after the first 140 innings. Count lost what little momentum he gained in his last two starts, plus he has back issues. If I knew he were fully recovered from injury I would say count, no doubt. Assuming he is still hurting, floyd. He pitched well. I hope that momentum stays.

 

Really though, I think they will all be mediocre. Era about 4.5.

[Gregory Pratt]

Pratt's going to jump on me for it, but I actually think that it's Floyd. He has a pitcher's frame, which should let him throw a lot of innings without tiring, he's 25 so he's approaching the age where he will hit whatever his peak actually is, and he may finally have built some confidence at the end of the last year.

 

Honestly, despite what that logic tells me, I'm hoping that it winds up being Contreras...because if Jose could have a good 1st half, that would be the best thing for the team in the long run, as that would help rebuild Jose's shattered trade value and maybe make his contract moveable at the deadline.

 

I'm not going to jump on you for it; I know full well that you enjoy predicting positive things for Sox players, particularly young Sox players. I will say that I don't see what you see and think you're wrong as hell...and I'll joke that I think Floyd hit his peak in High School...but we'll see.

[Balta1701]

I think its floyd, sadly. Danks will be over pitched, I have no faith in him pitching well after the first 140 innings. Count lost what little momentum he gained in his last two starts, plus he has back issues. If I knew he were fully recovered from injury I would say count, no doubt. Assuming he is still hurting, floyd. He pitched well. I hope that momentum stays.

 

Really though, I think they will all be mediocre. Era about 4.5.

If you could get 200, 175, and 150 innings from Floyd, Contreras, and Danks, with each putting up a 4.5 ERA, that would be excellent.

[bmags]

I really feel like, in the AL, if all our pitchers have an ERA below five, with 2 below 4, and a good bullpen this year, we wouldn't be in too bad of shape. I don't know about playoffs, but we would be talking mid to high 80's in wins, IMO.

[kman]

I don't see Danks as a top of the rotation kind of guy, Maybe a number 3 starter if he can get his stuff together. I was never impressed with the kid, granted hes still learning. His stuff just isn't that impressive at all. Floyd on the other hand has better raw stuff, there were glimpses last year of a # 2 starter in him, a nice fastball, and a 12-6 hammer which can propell this kid towards the top.

[southsider2k5]

I think its kind of funny that people get all worked up when Ozzie or Kenny say these sorts of things. What do you expect them to say? My guys suck?!

 

Heck, if anything, this tells me its likely that one of Danks or Floyd might get moved in a trade.

 

I don't remember seeing Floyd's name, but Danks name has been in a lot of trade rumors. I still wouldn't be surprised to see him traded, and Kenny take a chance on one of his famous reclimation projects. He has had tons of luck at picking guys off of the scrap heap.

[rcpweiner]

I'm way more worried that Contreras is our number 3 than I am worried about Danks and Floyd as 4/5.

[Chet Lemon]

I'm predicting Danks will have a very good season. I am not confident that both Floyd and Contreras will be able to handle the rigors of starting 30+ games based on what I have seen out them the last few years.

[southsideirish71]

I didn't say he would; I said it's more likely than not that pitchers would have more success in Chicago in the cold but I add the caveat that if Gavin's curveball sucks and has no control, as it frequently does, and he's still losing 5 MPH whenever he goes into the stretch it won't matter if he's playing against polar bears on melting ice caps.

 

Actually Gavin's curve is good, has good tilt to it, and has a sharp break. Gavins problem is throwing it for strikes, and getting ahead of the hitter. If he can throw strikes, and get his curve over he will pitch fine.

 

Danks needs to hang with Mark this ST and work on that cutter. The cutter can help him out a lot. He needs to throw strikes, and use his changeup more. He has a good curve, but his curve and his fastball are both hard hard. He needs to use his change more to offset his fastball. The minute he learns to command a cutter he will dominate. But if he cant throw strikes, he will get rocked. His fastball is good, but not good enough to blow hitters away.

 

 

 

Edited December 10, 2007 by southsideirish71

[scenario]

I saw an interview with Danks recently where he said he's watched every one of his '07 outings on tape during the offseason, several times over, dissecting what he did... evaluating what pitches he threw in situations, etc.

 

It quoted his father as saying John has spent most of his offseason so far fixated in front of the TV analyzing every aspect of his performances... and learning.

 

I found that very interesting.

 

I think he's going to come back next year a much more experienced and 'mature' player in terms of handling MLB hitters, specific situations, and controlling the things that got him into trouble.

Edited December 10, 2007 by scenario

[southsider2k5]

That's an impressive thing for a young pitcher to do. Hopefully it serves him well.

[greg775]

I don't mind Kenny speaking up.

It doesn't bother me.

What bothers me is he gave up Garland.

Big inning eater, prettty good pitcher for an old ss.

Dumb.

[Gregory Pratt]

Actually Gavin's curve is good, has good tilt to it, and has a sharp break. Gavins problem is throwing it for strikes, and getting ahead of the hitter. If he can throw strikes, and get his curve over he will pitch fine.

 

Danks needs to hang with Mark this ST and work on that cutter. The cutter can help him out a lot. He needs to throw strikes, and use his changeup more. He has a good curve, but his curve and his fastball are both hard hard. He needs to use his change more to offset his fastball. The minute he learns to command a cutter he will dominate. But if he cant throw strikes, he will get rocked. His fastball is good, but not good enough to blow hitters away.

 

Gavin's curve is good one out of ten times; most of the time he doesn't throw it right and forget about him ever throwing a curve from the stretch. He has no consistent command of any of his pitches.

[southsideirish71]

I don't mind Kenny speaking up.

It doesn't bother me.

What bothers me is he gave up Garland.

Big inning eater, prettty good pitcher for an old ss.

Dumb.

 

I would of liked to have seen some younger prospects brought over for Garland, but you can't knock the move. I forget, you are Mr. Go for it all the time. You would burn him this season in the miniscule chance for 75 wins over 72 because draft picks mean nothing.

 

 

Getting something for Jon better than nothing.

 

[Vance Law]

Really though, I think they will all be mediocre. Era about 4.5.

 

That would likely make for a very good rotation. 4.50 at U.S. Cellular is clearly above league average. With Buehrle and Vasquez making 40% of the starts and presumably putting up even better numbers.

[Texsox]

Kenny has to talk to the media. the ticket office is begging him to give the fans good news and help them sell tickets.

 

Who could have predicted E-Lo shooting up, or crashing down? Same with those three. We could have a twenty game winner in that crowd. Or they may combine for twenty. If they were on Detroit, we'd be shivering in our boots, calling them the greatest back end rotation in baseball, but they're ours so they potentially suck.

[Rowand44]

Sweet, Gavin Floyd getting beat up before he throws a pitch this season.

[scenario]

Gavin's curve is good one out of ten times; most of the time he doesn't throw it right and forget about him ever throwing a curve from the stretch. He has no consistent command of any of his pitches.

 

I don't agree. He had an excellent season in Charlotte and made significant improvements as the season went along. Check out his game log. The huge improvement in K/BB clearly demonstrates improved command and confidence.

 

And in his last 6 starts with the Sox, his command and his curveball were very impressive both from the windup and the stretch. (His curveball was downright nasty.)

 

3.40 ERA in those starts? 5 quality starts in 6 outings??

 

Will that carry over into next year? Who knows? But let's hope so.

Edited December 10, 2007 by scenario