Fukudome to the Cubs

[Chombi]

I keep seeing stuff about how Cabrera + Linebrink = Garland from a money standpoint. True. Now I was reading this at the same time so I thought I'd post it.

 

Great article on Hardballtimes.com about why and how teams keep overpaying for relief.

 

It's from last week. I wanted to post the part about Linebrink and the Sox but just click the link. It's easier and won't totally interfere with the thread.

 

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/...ddle-relievers/

[DaTank]

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/7542024...P&GT1=10734

 

Linebrink listed as the 2nd worst signing of the off-season behind Kaz Matsui by FoxSports. Hunter for 5/90 listed as the 4th worst.

[southsideirish71]

What happens when Rowand signs with San Diego? What does KW do then? Because he has failed time and time again this offseason and it wouldn't surprise me if failed on the guy that WANTS to play here! If that happens.. and i was Mr. Reinsdorf, i would seriously consider moving on to a new GM...

 

The Giants were hot on Rowand and have been in contact with his agent. They are a team desperate for offense that have been speculated to go to 5 years with him. The Padres will also help bring up the heat as well.

 

Its Jerry Owens in CF this year guys. Konerko becomes a 5 and 10 guy in May. Lets blow this up proper and send him and Crede to the Angels for some major prospects and call it a season, reload and come back ready to fight the following year.

 

 

 

[sircaffey]

I keep seeing stuff about how Cabrera + Linebrink = Garland from a money standpoint. True. Now I was reading this at the same time so I thought I'd post it.

 

Great article on Hardballtimes.com about why and how teams keep overpaying for relief.

 

It's from last week. I wanted to post the part about Linebrink and the Sox but just click the link. It's easier and won't totally interfere with the thread.

 

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/...ddle-relievers/

 

Which adds even another element to the Garland trade. Not only will Cabrera be gone in a year, but there's a decent chance of Linebrink's contract becoming horrible. So if it truly was Garland for Cabrera and Linebrink (which I absolutely hate looking at it like that), could turn out to be an absolutely horrendous deal.

[3E8]

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/7542024...P&GT1=10734

 

Linebrink listed as the 2nd worst signing of the off-season behind Kaz Matsui by FoxSports. Hunter for 5/90 listed as the 4th worst.

"In Linebrink's case, his career numbers are made to look better than they are because of all the time he spent in run-suppressing Petco Park"

 

Would be nice to get paid for no research and false claims

[Chombi]

"In Linebrink's case, his career numbers are made to look better than they are because of all the time he spent in run-suppressing Petco Park"

 

Would be nice to get paid for no research and false claims

 

Not quite sure what you're getting at there. Maybe his splits over those years, which aren't bad at all. If that's the case, so be it.

 

Otherwise, his trends aren't exactly good and his last 30+ games last season he got pretty touched up. Something to think about before you say the guy had no research and false claims.

[joeynach]

The Giants were hot on Rowand and have been in contact with his agent. They are a team desperate for offense that have been speculated to go to 5 years with him. The Padres will also help bring up the heat as well.

 

Its Jerry Owens in CF this year guys. Konerko becomes a 5 and 10 guy in May. Lets blow this up proper and send him and Crede to the Angels for some major prospects and call it a season, reload and come back ready to fight the following year.

 

Im with you let the idiot teams make idiot moves. If someone like the giants wants to give Rowand 5 Years 65 Mil to hit .275 and 18 HRs then good luck. Play your kids, move the vets, and wait for detroit to lose half their 35 year old + roster after 2008.

[hitlesswonder]

"In Linebrink's case, his career numbers are made to look better than they are because of all the time he spent in run-suppressing Petco Park"

 

Would be nice to get paid for no research and false claims

 

I guess it would...but Linebrink's ERA+ is on a 3 or 4 year trend toward not as good isn't? So even if Perry didn't look up the Home/Road splits, I think he could still be right here.

[fathom]

Im with you let the idiot teams make idiot moves. If someone like the giants wants to give Rowand 5 Years 65 Mil to hit .275 and 18 HRs then good luck. Play your kids, move the vets, and wait for detroit to lose half their 35 year old + roster after 2008.

 

I'm not so sure he hits 18 homers if he plays there.

[Chombi]

Im with you let the idiot teams make idiot moves. If someone like the giants wants to give Rowand 5 Years 65 Mil to hit .275 and 18 HRs then good luck. Play your kids, move the vets, and wait for detroit to lose half their 35 year old + roster after 2008.

 

Yup. Emphasis please on "moving the vets"

[joeynach]

Not quite sure what you're getting at there. Maybe his splits over those years, which aren't bad at all. If that's the case, so be it.

 

Otherwise, his trends aren't exactly good and his last 30+ games last season he got pretty touched up. Something to think about before you say the guy had no research and false claims.

 

Dont underestimate the power of a shut down Pen, they win Championships. We saw that with the Red Sox this year and White sox in 2005. When you can shorten the game with automatic outs in the 7th 8th 9th u are in good shape. Im not saying Linebrink is the answer, obviously hes an upgrade over Day or Bukvich, but dont underestimate the need for a quality bullpen.

I think thats is what the overpaying for relief concept is about, a ton of games can be lost or won in the last few innings depending on bullpen strength, looks like some (desperate) teams are just willing to overpay for that.

[CWSGuy406]

At this point I'd say I'd fully be behind only one move, and that's signing Mike Cameron to a short deal. He can still go get the ball out in CF and his numbers would be much better hitting at US Cellular. Of course, it would probably be best to sign him AFTER the Mitchell report is released (I'm not sure about the suspensions if he were to appear on that list, with the added 25 games he's already getting).

 

I'd be lukewarm about Rowand. If they could get him for 4/$48 I'd be game but not thrilled. Then again, I think if Rowand REALLY wanted to be here, he'd already be here. My guess is we're not getting a hometown discount and that Rowand is going where the money is (I'm laying no blame or judgement here, BTW).

 

Hell, I could take an Anderson/Owens platoon at this point. But please, then, don't feed us bulls*** the rest of the winter that we're going to compete. Who knows, maybe Anderson becomes the average player we were hoping for and along with Richar, Fields and Quentin, you have a nice core of decent (not great) players who will allow you to spend money elsewhere.

[joeynach]

I'm not so sure he hits 18 homers if he plays there.

 

Could very well be its a place HR hitters go to die.

[SoxFanForever]

I guess it would...but Linebrink's ERA+ is on a 3 or 4 year trend toward not as good isn't? So even if Perry didn't look up the Home/Road splits, I think he could still be right here.

Dayn Perry is also a notorious Sox hating moron. Take whatever he puts out there with a grain of salt. I think it killed him when we won it all in '05.

[Chombi]

Dont underestimate the power of a shut down Pen, they win Championships. We saw that with the Red Sox this year and White sox in 2005. When you can shorten the game with automatic outs in the 7th 8th 9th u are in good shape. Im not saying Linebrink is the answer, obviously hes an upgrade over Day or Bukvich, but dont underestimate the need for a quality bullpen.

I think thats is what the overpaying for relief concept is about, a ton of games can be lost or won in the last few innings depending on bullpen strength, looks like some (desperate) teams are just willing to overpay for that.

 

Don't know where the shut down pen came from? Linebrink is hardly that. Trends are downward spiral as was pointed out in the link I posted.

 

I don't even think Linebrink is necessarily an upgrade other then he has shown dominance elsewhere. Other guys have done the same. Mac was a pretty solid closer and he didn't exactly pan out in our pen. Bullpen is too hard to judge and too risky to deal with as we did.

[3E8]

Not quite sure what you're getting at there. Maybe his splits over those years, which aren't bad at all. If that's the case, so be it.

 

Otherwise, his trends aren't exactly good and his last 30+ games last season he got pretty touched up. Something to think about before you say the guy had no research and false claims.

 

 

I guess it would...but Linebrink's ERA+ is on a 3 or 4 year trend toward not as good isn't? So even if Perry didn't look up the Home/Road splits, I think he could still be right here.

Has nothing to do with trends. The quote clearly implies pitching in PETCO has improved his career line, when that is in fact, false. A simple glance at his career home/away splits shows EVERYTHING has been better on the road. ERA, WHIP, BAA, H/9, K/9, BB/9, HR/9. Don't use that as your argument for 2nd worst FA signing if it isn't even true.

[hitlesswonder]

Im not saying Linebrink is the answer, obviously hes an upgrade over Day or Bukvich, but dont underestimate the need for a quality bullpen.

 

 

Bukvich had a 5.05 ERA last season. Linebrink's ZiPS projection for 2008 is 4.7 (5.09 in 2009). So, he'll probably be better but probably not by much. Linebrink's K numbers:

 

Year K/9

------------

2004 8.89

2005 8.55

2006 8.09

2007 6.40

 

And his HR rate has gone up 40% over the last 3 seasons.

[DaTank]

Has nothing to do with trends. The quote clearly implies pitching in PETCO has improved his career line, when that is in fact, false. A simple glance at his career home/away splits shows EVERYTHING has been better on the road. ERA, WHIP, BAA, H/9, K/9, BB/9, HR/9. Don't use that as your argument for 2nd worst FA signing if it isn't even true.

 

Your forgetting to think about the money. 4.25 mil a year for a reliever coming into the AL and to one of the most hitter friendly ballparks in U.S. Cellular. And he is past his prime.

Edited December 12, 2007 by jenks45monster

[sircaffey]

Any free agent signing from now on sets the franchise back. We aren't a free agent away from winning. Please don't sign Rowand. If you do, for the love of god, do not give him a no trade clause.

[hitlesswonder]

Could very well be its a place HR hitters go to die.

Rowand has averaged 17 HRs a year over the last 3 years in excellent power parks. Less the 18 HRs is not unreasonable.

[DaTank]

Any free agent signing from now on sets the franchise back. We aren't a free agent away from winning. Please don't sign Rowand. If you do, for the love of god, do not give him a no trade clause.

 

You mean sets the franchise even FURTHER back.

[hitlesswonder]

Has nothing to do with trends. The quote clearly implies pitching in PETCO has improved his career line, when that is in fact, false. A simple glance at his career home/away splits shows EVERYTHING has been better on the road. ERA, WHIP, BAA, H/9, K/9, BB/9, HR/9. Don't use that as your argument for 2nd worst FA signing if it isn't even true.

 

I agree with that completely -- it was bad, lazy writing. But I think Linebrink was a bad signing. Perry got the answer right, but for incorrect reasons.

[Chombi]

Has nothing to do with trends. The quote clearly implies pitching in PETCO has improved his career line, when that is in fact, false. A simple glance at his career home/away splits shows EVERYTHING has been better on the road. ERA, WHIP, BAA, H/9, K/9, BB/9, HR/9. Don't use that as your argument for 2nd worst FA signing if it isn't even true.

 

Fair enough. I guess by already having my own opinions on Linebrink and reading that whole article I didn't really pay attention to the point you were getting at in just that quote. Thats why I wasn't sure what you were getting at.

 

Works for me though if you're only objecting to that quote in itself, if it's to whether Linebrink was a potential bad signing, I may disagree with you on that.

[joeynach]

Your forgetting to think about the money. 4.25 mil a year for a reliever coming into the AL and to one of the most hitter friendly ballparks in U.S. Cellular. And he is past his prime.

 

I dont think anyone doubted that hes overpayed. He 100% is. But what else was KW gonna do. Trot out Bukvich and Dewon Day again, go bring Riske back. I mean Linebrink might not be Joba Chamberlin what what are other options did we have to improve our pen.

 

[hitlesswonder]

I dont think anyone doubted that hes overpayed. He 100% is. But what else was KW gonna do. Trot out Bukvich and Dewon Day again, go bring Riske back. I mean Linebrink might not be Joba Chamberlin what what are other options did we have to improve our pen.

There were other options out there -- the Japanese relievers signed by CLE and KC. The Sox were supposedly interested in the guy that signed with KC.

 

The other option is to give Broadway, Egbert, Aardsma (at least he was briefly good last year), Gio, Haegar, and MacDougal shots at jobs and save the money.