Phil Rogers: Sox's future takes another hit

[spiderman]

Chicago Tribune Link - Phil Rogers Column

Sox's future takes another hit

Swisher deal improves club for now, but not enough to justify its cost

 

Is Jerry Reinsdorf selling the White Sox after 2008? Is Ken Williams planning to do his job only one more year and then move on?

 

Or do those two guys peer into their crystal balls and see enough pitching lined up behind Mark Buehrle, Javier Vazquez and Bobby Jenks to put the Sox in the same league as the Detroit Tigers and Cleveland Indians?

 

The answer to the last of those questions must be yes. Otherwise you really have to wonder what has happened to the once-responsible managers of the 2005 World Series champions.

 

And I don't see how you can put the Sox into the same conversation with the Tigers and Indians, the two powerhouses from the American League Central.

 

Nothing against Nick Swisher, but on first examination I really don't like the deal that brought the dangerous 27-year-old switch-hitter to Chicago for three promising youngsters. I hate it, actually.

 

The players going to Oakland in the Swisher trade are Gio Gonzalez, 22, and Fautino de los Santos, 21, the two most highly regarded pitchers in a thin farm system, and outfielder Ryan Sweeney, 22, who entered 2007 rated the organization's top prospect by Baseball America.

 

That same publication was about to go to press with its 2008 rankings, which would have had Gonzalez No. 1, de los Santos No. 2 and Sweeney No. 6. That's a ton of talent to give up for one proven hitter, even if he is signed through 2011 at a reasonable salary.

 

But that has been Williams' modus operandus as general manager, especially since 2005—using prospects to acquire veterans in the hope of getting another bite at the apple. That strategy blew up in his face when he sent center fielder Chris Young to Arizona for Vazquez, and this trade could make that one pale in its long-term cost.

 

It's the kind of trade you make only if you have A) a deep farm system and B) a reasonably good chance to reach the playoffs in the near future.

 

The White Sox have neither.

 

A year ago, with the same nucleus of Paul Konerko, Jermaine Dye and Jim Thome, the Sox scored 693 runs, which ranked last in the AL. They allowed 839, more than all but three other teams. They finished 24 games behind Cleveland and 16 behind Detroit.

 

It defies logic to believe they somehow will improve enough to make up those differences, especially with the Tigers adding Miguel Cabrera, Edgar Renteria and Dontrelle Willis. And Minnesota may yet concede, but with Johan Santana and Joe Nathan still on the roster, the Twins cannot be overlooked either.

 

Williams made longtime scouting director Duane Shaffer a scapegoat for the farm system's failings in recent years, firing him midway through 2007. But the work of Shaffer and his scouts had a whole lot to do with that '05 championship, and Williams' willingness to deal prospects contributed to down years for the system in '06 and '07.

 

A month ago, Williams traded Class A first baseman Chris Carter to Arizona for outfielder Carlos Quentin. Carter had been regarded as the organization's top young hitter before he was dealt away. That distinction previously had gone to outfielder Aaron Cunningham, whom Williams traded to Arizona for second baseman Danny Richar midway through last season.

 

Perhaps Richar and Quentin will prove to be worth the gambles. But after their early tastes of the big leagues (138 games for Quentin and 56 for Richar), they are both .230 hitters.

 

With Gonzalez, de los Santos, Sweeney, Carter and Cunningham gone, the Sox may not have anyone who will rank among the game's top 50 prospects when those lists are compiled. If they do, it will be Cuban Alexei Ramirez, whose signing—which was a great move—might not become official until mid-January because he's having trouble entering the country for a physical.

 

Gonzalez, who has now been in three White Sox trades, and de los Santos are both potential No. 2 starters, if not aces. I've been intrigued with Gonzalez since watching him work for Philadelphia in the spring of 2006, and I loved what I saw from de los Santos in the Futures Game in July.

 

Gonzalez led all minor-leaguers with 185 strikeouts in 150 innings a year ago, repeating Double A, and de los Santos held Class A hitters to a .163 average while striking out 11.3 per nine innings. They're both the type of young pitcher you just don't give up—not unless you're getting a stud pitcher such as Santana or Dan Haren back.

 

It has been almost four years since Sweeney elicited Harold Baines comparisons from Roland Hemond in spring training. But with a change of scenery, and perhaps a break from over-coaching by an undistinguished group of minor-league hitting instructors, he could blossom into a hitter like the popular Swisher, who averaged 26 homers and 82 RBIs in his three full seasons in Oakland.

 

Along with shortstop Orlando Cabrera, who was acquired from the Los Angeles Angels for Jon Garland, Swisher is a significant upgrade for the 2008 starting lineup. The Sox won't finish last in the league with those guys replacing Juan Uribe and Scott Podsednik/Darin Erstad.

 

Unless Williams has found a way to deal Konerko—and I wouldn't unhinge this team further by dealing Konerko, still the most stable lineup part—he will play Swisher in center or left (with some platoon involving Jerry Owens and Quentin filling the other position). The versatile Ramirez becomes something of a super utility man in 2008 before settling into center, short or second in '09, depending on Cabrera re-signing and the play of Owens and Richar.

 

Swisher easily could hit 30-plus homers based in Chicago, benefiting from a move to U.S. Cellular Field the way A.J. Pierzynski did in 2005. His high on-base percentage (.381 in '07, .361 career) gives Ozzie Guillen the potential to stack his lineup with Cabrera and Swisher as the 1-2 guys to take pressure off the speedy Owens and Richar.

 

Swisher makes the Sox better, no doubt about that. But Williams paid too high a price to get him. The next five years will show how much too high it was.

 

[SoxFan1]

A negative spin on a White Sox deal from someone from the Tribune? Unheard of!

[DBAHO]

Just a couple of quick points;

 

1 - He seems to be slurping the work of Duane Shaffer quite a bit. I'd look more at his record in the draft over the past 10 years or so, and you can't say we've really had many impact players there. It was time for a change, world series win or not.

 

2 - Rogers needed to look past the .230 averages of Richar and Quentin. Quentin has been injured constantly and when healthy has raked. Richar has a small sample size, and showed enough plate disicipline to suggest if he can raise his average to say .260/.270, he will be a valuable asset.

 

3 - I like Gio, but even I think he's overrating him there. #2 starter would be the absolute pinnacle for him.

 

4 - Right now, I'd be very surprised if Sweeney was able to show the same type of power Swisher has over the next 5 years or so.

 

[Vance Law]

A silly article from a silly "writer." All of the points above plus- as I and others have mentioned, he brings up the "they aint gonna have anyone in the top 50 prospects list!!!!" "they're giving all of their prospects away, all their top hitters!" Phil, they got Richar for Cunningham and they got Quentin for Carter. Young guys, Phil. They make, like, the league minimum salary. Either of those guys would by far be the top hitting prospects if they were in AAA, but they're good enough to be in the majors instead. You're essentially penalizing them (no one on the top 50!!!) for being good enough to be in the majors. "But no prospects!!! Who do the Sox have to take the place of Swisher, Quentin, Fields, Richar, Ramirez 5 years from now?!? Stuck with all of these young starting position players on the major league team for 5 years an no one lined up to take their place in '13"

 

Run through the line-ups, Phil, tell me why Cleveland has a better line-up. Let's see your projections.

 

Quentin and Richar are ".230 hitters" and nothing more, and Dontrelle Willis helps the Tigers how?

 

Rogers says

"the Sox scored 693 runs, which ranked last in the AL. They allowed 839, more than all but three other teams. It defies logic to believe they somehow will improve enough to make up those differences."

 

It also defies logic that they'd score 868 runs in 2006 and then drop to 693 in 2007, but that's what happened. It's baseball. Sometimes that's what happens and you get perfectly bad luck.

 

 

from Keith Law at Espn

"The White Sox are immediately three to four wins better, perhaps more, as a result of making this deal."

Edited January 4, 2008 by Vance Law

[RockRaines]

Flew off the handle on his first thought of the trade, without looking at the roster, and without looking at contracts and free agent markets. Its going to happen, I would be surprised if any writers from Chicago are in favor of the trade. You will see a few in other areas though.

[kwolf68]

 

No matter what you think of the Tribune, it WAS a very high price to pay and the writer makes points that (for the most part) can't be argued.

 

I agree with the poster above who mention Richar and Quentin's averages in the majors have to be taken with a grain of salt.

 

I don't believe this trade puts the Sox into the playoff chase and I don't like the deal, but we are better and 90 losses definately won't happen. This will clearly be a +.500 team, which means if a few things go right here and there the team could slip into the playoffs.

 

But I wont hold my breath on it.

[sircaffey]

No matter what you think of the Tribune, it WAS a very high price to pay and the writer makes points that (for the most part) can't be argued.

 

I agree with the poster above who mention Richar and Quentin's averages in the majors have to be taken with a grain of salt.

 

I don't believe this trade puts the Sox into the playoff chase and I don't like the deal, but we are better and 90 losses definately won't happen. This will clearly be a +.500 team, which means if a few things go right here and there the team could slip into the playoffs.

 

But I wont hold my breath on it.

 

I wouldn't bet the house. 60% of the rotation could blow up in our faces. It won't matter how good the offense hits if that happens.

[TheBigHurt]

Well, when you think about it, the Sox had few good prospects, so what are they going to do? The idea is to trade your prospects for great players, right? Isn't that what has been done? Realistically, what do many of you expect us to get in total for the 3 of those ultimately? Eventually you have to bite or else you get nothing, and that seems to be a constant with KW, so for me this was a pleasant surprise.

[greg775]

It's his opinion that it's a high price to pay. Fair enough.

But if Swisher is good, it's a nice piece to go with our new ss.

We got a new set up man who is supposed to be decent.

 

I am thinking the moves are not over, so it's still wait and see.

I mean I have no problem with the article, but arguably we are a better team today after this trade.

 

It scares the s*** out of me though if those pitchers are as good as Beane thinks they are.

 

Whatever, it appears we got a good player (centerfielder?) and to go with the new set up man we are making

progress assuming our sluggers (JT, Paul, AJP, Dye) aren't over the hill.

[Chisoxfn]

Just a couple of quick points;

 

1 - He seems to be slurping the work of Duane Shaffer quite a bit. I'd look more at his record in the draft over the past 10 years or so, and you can't say we've really had many impact players there. It was time for a change, world series win or not.

 

2 - Rogers needed to look past the .230 averages of Richar and Quentin. Quentin has been injured constantly and when healthy has raked. Richar has a small sample size, and showed enough plate disicipline to suggest if he can raise his average to say .260/.270, he will be a valuable asset.

 

3 - I like Gio, but even I think he's overrating him there. #2 starter would be the absolute pinnacle for him.

 

4 - Right now, I'd be very surprised if Sweeney was able to show the same type of power Swisher has over the next 5 years or so.

It is funny that Rogers is willing to throw out stats as to how poor Richar/Quentin are (based on major league production) yet ignores the fact that Sweeney has done nothing over the course of his major league games. Plus, I see nothing about how Quentin in his first taste did more than Sweeney ever could have imagined and that a lot of his struggles appear to be due to an injury.

 

I also think he's truly slurping DSL a little early, than again, he did the same with Anderson Gomes and Salvardo Sanchez (Sanchez was the next Juan Gonzalez). I think Rogers is a little over attached to the minor league prospects and I respect that because I think you are either sucessful by being super over protective (and trading no prospects) or taking the opposite approach and being willing to sell any of your prospects at a high level (because over the long haul, by doing so, you will get a major return with only few guys panning out, however if you only do it every once in a while you may end up getting bite in the ass a lot more just based on the odds potentially not evening out).

[The Ginger Kid]

Rogers thinks the sox should be in re-building mode like the A's. He may be right, but with that mindset you'll never be objective about trading top prospects.

[NCsoxfan]

People forget that we CANT go into a full rebuilding mode - it would kill our fanbase and cause the payroll to drop to 70 mil

[EvilJester99]

I love how the general concensus is the Sox farm system sucks until you trade a few of them....Rogers is getting as bad as the windsock.

[Lemon_44]

Well,using his flawed logic, how can he use Chris Young as an example.He's a .230 hitter in 500+ AB's(plus i'd still rather have Vasquez). Columnists just try to get responses and think what they write has any significance. It usually is meaningless drivel. I also like how he uses Hemond compared Sweeney to Baines. Big deal.That means nothing.Bill Walsh once compared Jake Plummer to Joe Montana. I like the trade. I have no data, but i'd guess that out of all these "can't miss" young pitchers you hear about in the minors that the % that actually have an impact at the ML level is less than 20%.

[NCsoxfan]

I assume your comment of rather having Vazquez over Young was tongue in cheek?

[JoshPR]

Once again Phil is on Crack. I mean the only piece i could regret is Gio. Sweeney has been a long shot. Hindsight is always 20/20. Watch none of them pan out for the A's and he'll change his tune.

[klaus kinski]

We can do no right-honestly-per any writer in this town.I'd rather have Swisher than Rowand and Fukodome.

 

I've ripped Williams all Winter, but am pleased with this move. We are MORE competitive.

Enough to win? Doubtful, but there's still help out there and Crede to trade.

 

Sure we had to pay, but it didnt hurt the team RIGHT NOW-just helped it.

[NorthSideSox72]

Phil is right about the team making an already bad farm system worse, no doubt about it. Losing Carter, Gio, DLS and Sweeney in the same offseason is a blow.

 

But if he thinks this team isn't a lot better than they were 6 months ago, he's blind. This team is one good SP away from contending. Heck, even if 2 of the current back end 3 perform well, that might do it (though I'd prefer they didn't take that chance).

 

[spiderman]

One point I strongly disagree with in his column is that the Chris Young trade was a bad trade for the White Sox. Vazquez is our #2 starter, and is coming off a very solid season. We expect him to continue at that level of productivity. Yes, Young hits HR's, and he probably will end up being a good player, but I don't regret that trade for a 2nd. I only wish the White Sox would find a way to add another veteran starting pitcher before the season begins.

[GreatScott82]

This trade would be horrible is Swish only had 1-2 years left on his contract, but we have him for 5 years!! That takes losing DSL and Gio alittle easier.

[beck72]

One point I strongly disagree with in his column is that the Chris Young trade was a bad trade for the White Sox. Vazquez is our #2 starter, and is coming off a very solid season. We expect him to continue at that level of productivity. Yes, Young hits HR's, and he probably will end up being a good player, but I don't regret that trade for a 2nd. I only wish the White Sox would find a way to add another veteran starting pitcher before the season begins.

I also agree with you about the Young-Vazquez trade.

 

And Young is the only prospect traded away--save for Jon Rauch--who has had decent contributions to a major league team. So for all the "gutting", how badly has it hurt. What it does say is how pitiful the sox farm system has been.

[Steve9347]

Swisher is going to prove he's ELITE this year. our two best prospects are just that OUR two best. Would I trade Minnesota's two best, or Florida's two best? probably not... there's a lot of unearned weight to that statement. the white sox have the worst farm system in baseball... trading questionable minor league talent, including DLS who is 3 years away from the MLB bullpen, Sweeney who wasn't getting another shot, and a guy traded more than Kenny Lofton (Gio)... for a player with Swisher's type of elite upside, its a no-brainer.

 

As much as Phil Rogers wants to say he's enamored off of a one-inning appearance by DLS in the Future's Game and what he saw out of Gio 1.5 years ago when he was in the Phillies Spring Training (and heading into his FIRST season in AA) I don't put any stock into what he says.

[JoshPR]

Maybe the farm is a lil weak now. But who can assure us those guys were gonna pan out anyways?? Why do you want a strong farm system and none of you're farm hands pan out? What did you get anyways? Nothing...

 

Maybe Kenny is cleaning house. Someone else is gonna run the draft this year, maybe they want a whole change

[BearSox]

even though he is a prick, I agree with Rogers on this one.

[beautox]

I wouldn't bet the house. 60% of the rotation could blow up in our faces. It won't matter how good the offense hits if that happens.

 

But at the same time the converse of that is true.

 

Floyd could continue to develop and build off his performance at the end of the season and finish the year with an ERA just a hair north of 4.50 which I'm expecting from him. Or since he clearly has great "stuff" could pull it all together ala Fausto Carmona and mow down line ups and post a ERA and WHIP around 3.30 and 1.30.

 

Danks now having gone through his first ML season should improve on his freshman performance.

 

Lastly Jose was one of the most dominate pitchers for a very long stretch of time in '06 until he hurt his back, near the end of '07 he looked to have put it all together.

 

There is an outside chance this team competes this year.

 

KW has done a good job creating what looks to be a very exciting young ML core (Swisher, Fields, Quentin, Richar, Danks, Floyd, Jenks, Wasserman and Logan)

 

And we still have Broadway and Egbert in the wings, whos repertoire look more conducive to pitching on the south side.